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Author Topic: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)  (Read 98970 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #875 on: July 07, 2013, 01:09:48 pm »

Is it possible all we have is a jail keeper, I'm actually wary about yuma's claim.

If he is mafia he can no kill and then lay the trap that he's doctor who save someone.

Oh wait if he is and we lynch lio then volt can jail Yuma and kill him. There's only 3 mafia right?

I say we can afford to believe Yuma.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #876 on: July 07, 2013, 01:41:07 pm »

Is it possible all we have is a jail keeper, I'm actually wary about yuma's claim.

If he is mafia he can no kill and then lay the trap that he's doctor who save someone.

Oh wait if he is and we lynch lio then volt can jail Yuma and kill him. There's only 3 mafia right?

I say we can afford to believe Yuma.
uhh, mcmc, there is only 1 mafia left... 2 total...

jailing yuma does not kill him.

it is very possible JK is our only PR.

once I flip town, that doesn't make Yuma scum. If yuma flips town, that doesn't make me scum. sheesh. It's not like I counterclaimed him or yuma claimed a guilty result on me or anything.

If we lynch Yuma, voltaire is still very capable of jailing me, as well as he is of jailing yuma if you lynch me. He can jail whoever the hell he wants.

Question: Have you read the second post of this thread??
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #877 on: July 07, 2013, 01:43:48 pm »

What if we leave yuma alive, what are the advantages? Will scum kill him, or let him live?
If he's a doctor and we don't lynch him, he will save voltaire and voltaire can either jail him or someone else. So, he kind of helps voltaire stay alive, but voltaire can do that himself by jailing the scum.

I am super worried that I'm wrong about Yuma and we're going to lynch him, then me, then suddenly we're in lylo and scum might win.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #878 on: July 07, 2013, 01:49:11 pm »

Liopoil, Robz and yuma are the scumteam, Robz is the scum that performs the kill and it fails. He goes on to claim cop that got a result (Eevee is town). It's Robz and yuma, they would have had an active quicktopic. Don't you think claiming would have come up? Don't you think Robz would realize what a bad idea claiming that role for him specifically is in that scenario? If not, don't you think yuma would have told him?
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #879 on: July 07, 2013, 01:51:41 pm »

it isn't a bad idea though. They didn't know he got jailkept, and they might have good reason to believe there was no cop. I don't think robz made a big mistake. It easily could have won the game for scum.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #880 on: July 07, 2013, 02:12:44 pm »

I've always been absolutely terrible at all this, but I'll give it a shot.

I think it's safe to assume scum attempted to kill N1, so, from Robz's perspective

a) he got jailed
b) his target got jailed
c) his target got doctored.

Now, I don't think there was anyone who appeared super towny day 1, so let's assume all power roles target randomly. Doesn't that mean that, from Robz's perspective, all of the options above are equally likely? On top of that, assuming there is a jailkeeper (which from above, they can assume is the case 66% of the time) there is an equal chance I got jailed, and his cover would blow just as well with his claim.

So, as scum basically needs to hit the dream scenario of there only being one PR (and that pr not being able to counterclaim him), I don't think it would have been a good move from scum Robz to claim in that scenario.

If the other guy performed the kill like I suspect, he just got very unlucky it worked out the way it did.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #881 on: July 07, 2013, 02:22:09 pm »

66% chance he wasn't jailed, from his perspective. If he is counterclaimed it isn't the end of the world. Indeed, if it was someone who was more suspicious who counterclaimed him, he might have gotten them lynched. Even in this situation, whoever his buddy is still have a slim chance to win. Whereas if he isn't counterclaimed, it ought to be easy to win. And by doing this, he can try to WIFOM us into thinking his partner did it once he's flipped. And even if it is a mistake, it isn't an obvious one, and he could have made a mistake. And when he and his buddy were chatting, they must have thought that their kill would go through. In any case, he sets up a doctor fakeclaim quite nicely.

I think it's more likely that robz fakeclaims even though his kill didn't go through than scum either no killing or killing yuma.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #882 on: July 07, 2013, 05:41:11 pm »

I am aVT
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #883 on: July 07, 2013, 05:43:12 pm »

I believe that's everyone except mcmc, I assume he's claiming VT.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #884 on: July 07, 2013, 07:55:55 pm »

People should finish claiming.

Based on info out there right now, I am cool lynching lio and/or yuma.

If yuma is telling the truth, how have the nights worked?

N1
Voltaire jails Robz
Yuma doctors Voltaire
lio cops ???
Robz kills Voltaire (blocked via both jailing/doctoring)

N2
Voltaire jails yuma
yuma doctors Voltaire (blocked via jailing)
lio kills yuma (blocked via jailing)
lio cops ???

Or are you saying something else, yuma?

You can sub in anyone in place for lio. I don't have proof that it is lio, just my read.

And Robz didn't necessarily have to do the NK. I highly doubt that he did, based off his claim.

But the rest is correct:
Volt jails robz
yuma docs voltaire (I will say here that I had to decide between lio and volt and ultimately went with volt)
X NKs voltaire (blocked)

Volt jails yuma
yuma docs volt (blocked)
X kills yuma or NKs
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #885 on: July 07, 2013, 08:02:16 pm »

What if we leave yuma alive, what are the advantages? Will scum kill him, or let him live?

The advantages to leaving me alive is that mafia is then WIFOM in regard to whom the kill... volt or myself. Because volt and I can decide whether or not we want to target each other and basically end up with a 50/50 opportunity that there won't be a NK--which means an additional day to find the last mafia if we don't get it right today or the next.

Like I said above:

If you are certain I am mafia, vote for me.

If you have doubts, leave me alive for now and then come back to the issue in mylo or lylo (and like I said above there, if we haven't caught the last remaining mafia by then, town deserves to lose, I will vote for myself and retire from mafia) because the benefit of keeping me alive is that Volt has a higher chance of staying alive and right now he is both an IC and the JK.

I don't know if mafia would try to kill me. I don't know what mafia would do in this situation at all. What I do know is the only chance they have is to try and push for my lynch today, because once they do that, they can eliminate volt tonight and then try and get some mislynches. The longer I stay alive, the more desperate their situation becomes, because it results in volt potentially staying alive longer as well.

So don't lynch me until mylo or lylo. Once we get there, I fully offer myself up to being lynched.

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #886 on: July 07, 2013, 08:09:41 pm »

And if he's telling the truth then either scum no killed, or scum killed yuma. I don't think scum would no kill because in doing so they need to get an extra mislynch through, which is a big hit. I don't think yuma would be the best kill option for them though, I'd think voltaire or chairs is more likely.

So the best explanation for me is that yuma is scum.

Even if yuma is telling the truth, that doesn't make me scum. He could be wrong you know... all he has on me is his reads, which aren't 100%.

I am telling the truth... of course you don't know that... (or do you scum!) so I know that mafia either tried to kill me or NK. Both a pretty valid options I think, but killing me more so than anything else.

Why?

Well let's look at killing me. Why would mafia want to kill me? Well maybe they picked up on me being doc. I was trying to be subtle about it yesterday, because I didn't want to be the NK target and have us lose our advantage, but there were some clues... my brining up the "follow the cop" scenario, or my being pretty insistent that robz was mafia toward the end of the day. I didn't breadcrumb anything because breadcrumbs are dumb, so it couldn't have been that. Or maybe mafia picked me because 1. they knew that killing volt would result in another NK (they knew there was a doc and knew the doc would be protecting him) and from there they had to eliminate a player that was on the right track. (Here I am suspicious of lio, or someone trying to set up lio). Ultimately I don't think either chairs or volt were better options. Volt because he would be protected and chairs... well maybe chairs would have been an option, but on par with me.

And you are right, I don't know you are mafia. I have reads. That is all they are. I hope they are right. But it could be mcmc, it could be mail-mi, it could be chairs, it could be eevee. all possible. But not as possible as you.

Lio do you have anything to say in response to my response to you and to some of the things I have noted about you? I haven't made up a formal case, but I have posted some thoughts about everything, but you have kinda ignored them (because all the talk of late has been about my claim, I know, but I would like to see if you have a response to any of it.)
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #887 on: July 07, 2013, 08:10:59 pm »

well, that policy certainly benefits scum!yuma... All he has to do is kill off the people who suspect him, then in mylo or lylo suddenly say "oh crap, we're gonna lose, nevermind guys, don't lynch me! lynch this other guy!" Sure, probably doesn't work for him, but it has a better chance than what mafia have right now...

however, that plan makes it almost certain that town will win if yuma is town. And with the doctor claim, I am less certain.

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #888 on: July 07, 2013, 08:12:00 pm »

or maybe the rolecop targeted me night1? And knew for certain I was the cop? Or maybe they targeted chairs and knew for certain that he wasn't a PR... so didn't want to kill him.

What I am saying is that lio seems to be focusing on me because of some variables that can't be analyzed because we don't have all the data. Whereas I am focusing on lio because he is scummy.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #889 on: July 07, 2013, 08:32:16 pm »

And knew for certain I was the cop?
Scumslip.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #890 on: July 07, 2013, 08:34:14 pm »

Lio do you have anything to say in response to my response to you and to some of the things I have noted about you? I haven't made up a formal case, but I have posted some thoughts about everything, but you have kinda ignored them (because all the talk of late has been about my claim, I know, but I would like to see if you have a response to any of it.)
you have not said much updating your previous case on me, but you have responded to my pre-claim case on you. I will re-respond to that. I will certainly respond once you make your new (and improved I hear) case on me.

- "the case on you is weak"

Where do you substantiate this? Where do you back this up? How is it weak? Can you provide some examples of how it is weak? Do you notice that it is the exact same thing that I am accusing you of doing--pushing weak cases on mail-mi and spiritbears earlier?

- "town!yuma gets it right, scum!yuma gets it wrong"

Hmmm... let's go look at real facts to back this up since you are just putting out allegations and aren't providing anything concrete here. Since you started playing--note I am only counting normal, non-blitz games here--I have played in MXIX (mafia), MXX (mafia), MXXII (town), MXXIII (town), MXXIV (town), MXXV (mafia)

Let's look how I actually did in those games eh?

MXIX (mafia) - I voted correctly (on the other team) once. I bussed once and I mislynched twice. So here 2-2.
MXX (mafia) - I mislynched 3 times. So here 0-3.
MXXII (town) - I mislynched twice. And correctly lynched (obvious arch, once) so 2-1.
MXXIII (town) - I mislynched twice. Never correctly voted. so 0-2.
MXXIV (town) - I voted correctly once. 1-0
MXXV (mafia) - I mislynched 4 times. 0-4.

So three games as town I mislynched 4 times and correctly lynched 2 times. 2/6=33%.
In three games as mafia I mislynched 9 times, bussed once and was correct once.

So yeah, as mafia I am wrong. But so is everyone if they are mafia. That is the name of the game. But you are giving me far too much credit for being right. I have a 33% correct lynch rate since you came around. Not super stellar...

But even more importantly, one of you big parts of your cases is that you find me scummy because I wasn't right on the day1 lynch? Really? Because I am always sooooo right on other day1 lynches? Lio... I have played ~18 games. ~ 12 of them as town. I have correctly lynched day1 twice. TWICE! I would guess that is pretty similar to everone else out there. So don't ascribe mystical day1 lynching powers to town!yuma and then be suspicious of me when I am wrong. I am wrong more often than not and the fact that this is one of your main points is extremely suspect to me, because really... it just shows that you are desperate and trying for anything to the point that you are willing to distort my meta to fit the needs of your case.

"totally set up Robz's claim"

- well I can't deny that robz claimed after I brought it up. This is true. But what I will dispute is that I set it up. This is because I still maintain that mafia claiming in that situation is a terrible, bad move (and honestly one that I was hoping for because it would likely result in an eventual loss for mafia).

As a result, setting that sort of a claim up isn't something I would do as mafia. Why? Because it would be bad and I play to win. I don't know why Robz claimed... His partner is probably a bit frustrated with him. But it certainly wasn't something that was thought up in a QT. That should be pretty obvious. Because if it was thought up in a QT it would have been immediately quashed because it was a bad, bad move that had more harm for mafia than benefit. So the point that I "set-up" robz claim is bunk. Because for something to be "set-up" it needs to be thoughtout and anyone who would have thought about such a plan would have realized that it wasn't a good one and abandoned it. Compare this to the plan in mean girls... That had obvious benefits to mafia--closed setups versus open setups--whereas this... was just bad.

My whole reasoning for bringing it up was because almost all of the possibilities in regard to claiming were pretty good for town and I felt town would benefit. And look! We did!

But again I ask, who was the player that was all like "SHHHHHHH! Don't talk about roles and claiming from the outset and was panicked when I brought it up again?

Oh yeah! It was lio...

Really at this point I pretty certain it is lio. No one else fits the picture. I haven't created a huge case yet, I spent my time responding to his accusations instead--I drove home from my vacation, immediately went to work and have only written this and go to work again tomorrow and again the next day, so not a lot of time--but really I don't need to write up a huge case. The stuff is there for people to go and reread and I think it should be pretty obvious.

If people don't think it is obvious then they should lynch me. I would be willing to offer lio up a trade at this point. I am willing to be lynched as long as lio is the next lynch, I am that confident. If you want a percentage, I would put it at 80%. Lio would you agree to this trade?

It's weak because I don't think that trying to lead town to victory should be seen as scummy, and I don't entirely understand why it seems to you that I am trying to mislead town, and that is the majority of your case. And, well, I'm town.

you make a very good point about the being wrong bit, had not realized that. For some reason I always think of you as getting it right as town much more often then not. and I was not basing it around being wrong D1. I am basing it off of how certain you have been for 2 days that I am scum, when I am not. I was saying that I don't think town yuma would be SO far off as you are right now.

I'll maintain that the claiming wasn't a bad move. It (theoretically) had a 50-50 chance of being a 1-1 trade even if he got counterclaimed, and more likely than not, he wouldn't be. It certainly did not work out for robz, but I don't think he erred.

I still think you are scum, but am nowhere near the 80% certain that you are about me, and I never was. So no, I will not accept your trade because it gives scum a very good chance if you are town, when they have little to no chance right now. And this level of certainty is part of my suspicion. It is super easy to fake suspicion as scum. And town just shouldn't be this certain about me, even if I was super-scummy, which I'm not. If you are town, Yuma, you are hurting town by getting so caught up in your theory that I am scum and fitting everything you see into your theory, making you more and more certain to the point where both of our mislynches seem inevitable.

I think we may be throwing away the big lead on scum that we have right now.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #891 on: July 07, 2013, 09:49:50 pm »

And knew for certain I was the cop?
Scumslip.

right completely ignore all of my four other large posts and everything else that I have written and narrowly focus on the one line that is obviously meant to be doc... I mean look at the context and the full quote...

"or maybe the rolecop targeted me night1? And knew for certain I was the cop?" Where I say "rolecop" followed by "cop." Pretty easy to write cop instead of doc when typing fast.

I mean... do you have anything else to say beside "scumslip" or are you ok just following what everyone else does?

Sheesh.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #892 on: July 07, 2013, 09:57:37 pm »

I still think you are scum, but am nowhere near the 80% certain that you are about me, and I never was. So no, I will not accept your trade because it gives scum a very good chance if you are town, when they have little to no chance right now. And this level of certainty is part of my suspicion. It is super easy to fake suspicion as scum. And town just shouldn't be this certain about me, even if I was super-scummy, which I'm not. If you are town, Yuma, you are hurting town by getting so caught up in your theory that I am scum and fitting everything you see into your theory, making you more and more certain to the point where both of our mislynches seem inevitable.

I think we may be throwing away the big lead on scum that we have right now.

You won't be getting a case from me today. I have said already that it would be tell Monday that I would have sufficient time to do a full reread and put something together.

It is also super easy to fake being uncertain as mafia. See Robz in MXIX.

I am town, and I refuse to see how I am hurting town by having a scum read! My scum read is completely valid and legitimate. You have some scummy attributes. Far more so than anyone else in the game! Maybe I should just create scum reads on other players to even the playing field? NO! I see scummy, I call out scummy. That is how the game plays. And I am certainly not caught up in my theory. I am looking at what is being presented. I mean really... look at it from my point of view. Who else but you at this point is suspicious?

you haven't recommended anyone else to find scummy have you? Voltaire is out. eevee/spiritbears I really think is town based off the derphammer and Robz's pseudoinvestigation. Mcmc is playing exactly how I think town!mcmc plays. Mail-mi I still think was the easy day1 mislynch. Chairs is a toss up. But you thought he was the most likely NK aside from voltaire--so you must think he is townie...

So who else am I supposed to suspect? Mafia isn't me. I don't think it is any of those above players... therefore I am left with you, who also has scummy attributes.

Look if you are town, then I am wrong. It won't be the first time. But instead of saying that I am "hurting town" by presenting a case against you, maybe you should concentrate more on trying to figure out who is mafia. It isn't me, if it isn't you, then it is someone else. But it will take a bit to convince me to vote somewhere other than you. But I can be convinced if the case and evidence is compelling. But I haven't seen anything compelling on anyone except what I have presented on you.
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #893 on: July 07, 2013, 10:32:47 pm »

I'll confirm that

I am a Vanilla Townie

Also, just in case..

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #894 on: July 08, 2013, 12:06:08 am »

And knew for certain I was the cop?
Scumslip.

right completely ignore all of my four other large posts and everything else that I have written and narrowly focus on the one line that is obviously meant to be doc... I mean look at the context and the full quote...

"or maybe the rolecop targeted me night1? And knew for certain I was the cop?" Where I say "rolecop" followed by "cop." Pretty easy to write cop instead of doc when typing fast.

I mean... do you have anything else to say beside "scumslip" or are you ok just following what everyone else does?

Sheesh.
I thought maybe you weren't thinking of your "role" (that scum you made up) an dsaid cop.

But anyway, it was an ash style scum slip.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #895 on: July 08, 2013, 09:35:16 am »

I thought I claimed vt, I am one. Ill catch up later today
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #896 on: July 08, 2013, 09:45:09 am »

So, as expected, no counterclaims.

I think we can keep yuma alive, he is very helpful for us if he is a doc, and we can always lynch him later if we feel that's the play.

This is good, because if yuma is the rolecop, he made it impossible for himself to ever kill Voltaire now. So, keeping yuma alive might actually cause us to have even more time to find the last mafia (whoever it is).
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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #897 on: July 08, 2013, 09:49:00 am »

If yuma is telling the truth, how have the nights worked?

N1
Voltaire jails Robz
Yuma doctors Voltaire
XXX rolecops ???
XXX kills Voltaire (blocked via both doctoring)

N2
Voltaire jails yuma
yuma doctors Voltaire (blocked via jailing)
xxx kills yuma (blocked via jailing)
xxxx cops ???

Fixed for how I think it went.


Yuma, why the town reads on mcmc and mail-mi?

To me, none of them (including chairs) seem particularly towny. Mcmc has been totally useless today, mail-mi I think I perceive scummier when he is town (I think he is middling here), chairs is hard to read as there are no completed games from him to reference, but pretty null there too.
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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #898 on: July 08, 2013, 09:52:55 am »

mail-mi, you are still voting for yuma (suspicious!!), and liopoil (because you still harbor yuma suspision I'm sure:

Keeping yuma alive keeps Voltaire alive. When the amount of people alive decreases, jailkeeper starts becoming a powerhouse. He effectively has two shots at preventing the night kill - he can either hit the killer or the target. Even if yuma is mafia, he can't kill Voltaire as that would blow his cover. Doesn't that make keeping yuma alive the best plan, even if you think there is a good chance he is mafia? We can afford to have him try to kill for two nights here.
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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #899 on: July 08, 2013, 12:08:00 pm »

Vote Count 3.3

liopoil (2): yuma, mcmcsalot

Not voting: chairs, Eevee, Voltaire, mail-mi, liopoil

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 9am forum time on Monday, July 20th
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