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Author Topic: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)  (Read 98992 times)

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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #850 on: July 06, 2013, 06:30:14 pm »

So, the plan is to traditionally scumhunt and then have the people who might have helpful knowledge claim if they feel we are going in a horribly bad direction?
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #851 on: July 06, 2013, 07:13:26 pm »

Eevee, how do you feel about a yuma lynch - specifically, your thoughts on liopoil's argument?

Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #852 on: July 06, 2013, 07:26:14 pm »

Eevee, how do you feel about a yuma lynch - specifically, your thoughts on liopoil's argument?
Meh, the case is decent. I don't oppose it, it's okay. Voltaire's jailing target from last night is a BIG missing piece of information though, and it just might change everything completely.

No one else seems to be even remotely interested in talking theory, so maybe it's a mistake to pursue that line of discussion, at least until Voltaire claims.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #853 on: July 06, 2013, 08:02:24 pm »

Tru dat.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #854 on: July 06, 2013, 08:27:35 pm »

oh, voltaire should definitely tell us who he jailkept, but in the meantime, why not scumhunt? But I agree that he should tell us at his next opportunity.
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #855 on: July 06, 2013, 08:38:23 pm »

Eevee, how do you feel about a yuma lynch - specifically, your thoughts on liopoil's argument?
Meh, the case is decent. I don't oppose it, it's okay. Voltaire's jailing target from last night is a BIG missing piece of information though, and it just might change everything completely.

No one else seems to be even remotely interested in talking theory, so maybe it's a mistake to pursue that line of discussion, at least until Voltaire claims.

I'm interested in talking theory - I"m just not particularly good at it yet.  I think I"m getting the idea, though!

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #856 on: July 06, 2013, 08:47:20 pm »

No one else seems to be even remotely interested in talking theory, so maybe it's a mistake to pursue that line of discussion, at least until Voltaire claims.
What theory do we have to talk about? whether any PR we may have should claim or not? I think the PR can come to their own conclusions. They have info none of the VTs have, regarding who they targeted the last two nights, so they are best suited to make the choice.

If anyone is a jailkeeper by any chance, they should claim for sure because we insta-win, but if they probably would have claimed already.

In other theory, we have at least 3 chances to catch the last scum. Good odds.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #857 on: July 06, 2013, 11:32:08 pm »

He has other reasons, and plans on making another big case apparently. But here's the deal:

For Yuma, having bad reads is a scumtell. Yes. In my time here, whenever he's town he does really well at catching scum, with few exceptions. And he's gotten it badly wrong this game. He was wrong on nkirbit, and he's terribly wrong on me. Sure, he didn't oppose Robz's lynch, but nobody did, it was the clear lynch of the day.

I'll cite mean girls. He was scum there, and was "wrong" on robz, mcmc, and xeiron, and then won by lynching mail-mi. Scum also won that game by fakeclaiming. Scum fakeclaimed in this game, and in reality, it was probably a good move by robz, just didn't work out. And I think Yuma set robz up to do it. he started the theory discussion in the middle of the day:

Warning: about to do some theory discussion below...

[snip]

... as such I realize that there may be a benefit of having a cop (if there is one) claim today.

Here is why:

[snip]

If people really don't want to discuss this, I am sorry, but I think this specific scenario is worth talking about because it could put town in an incredibly advantageous situation.

and robz replies with:

I think we should do it. I like plans like this. The best case scenario is really good, the worst case scenario is very unlikely, and the middle scenarios are OKAY.

and in his next post:

Yeah, let's just do it.  ;D

I am the Cop.

I really think Yuma set him up to do that, so that his claim didn't come out of nowhere.

So really, I have 3 main points:

- case on me is weak and looks strongly to me like pushing a mislynch.
- town!yuma gets it right, scum!yuma gets it wrong. Yuma has been getting it wrong.
- totally set robz's claim up.

Ok... let me respond to your case {one of the worst cases ever}

- "the case on you is weak"

Where do you substantiate this? Where do you back this up? How is it weak? Can you provide some examples of how it is weak? Do you notice that it is the exact same thing that I am accusing you of doing--pushing weak cases on mail-mi and spiritbears earlier?

- "town!yuma gets it right, scum!yuma gets it wrong"

Hmmm... let's go look at real facts to back this up since you are just putting out allegations and aren't providing anything concrete here. Since you started playing--note I am only counting normal, non-blitz games here--I have played in MXIX (mafia), MXX (mafia), MXXII (town), MXXIII (town), MXXIV (town), MXXV (mafia)

Let's look how I actually did in those games eh?

MXIX (mafia) - I voted correctly (on the other team) once. I bussed once and I mislynched twice. So here 2-2.
MXX (mafia) - I mislynched 3 times. So here 0-3.
MXXII (town) - I mislynched twice. And correctly lynched (obvious arch, once) so 2-1.
MXXIII (town) - I mislynched twice. Never correctly voted. so 0-2.
MXXIV (town) - I voted correctly once. 1-0
MXXV (mafia) - I mislynched 4 times. 0-4.

So three games as town I mislynched 4 times and correctly lynched 2 times. 2/6=33%.
In three games as mafia I mislynched 9 times, bussed once and was correct once.

So yeah, as mafia I am wrong. But so is everyone if they are mafia. That is the name of the game. But you are giving me far too much credit for being right. I have a 33% correct lynch rate since you came around. Not super stellar...

But even more importantly, one of you big parts of your cases is that you find me scummy because I wasn't right on the day1 lynch? Really? Because I am always sooooo right on other day1 lynches? Lio... I have played ~18 games. ~ 12 of them as town. I have correctly lynched day1 twice. TWICE! I would guess that is pretty similar to everone else out there. So don't ascribe mystical day1 lynching powers to town!yuma and then be suspicious of me when I am wrong. I am wrong more often than not and the fact that this is one of your main points is extremely suspect to me, because really... it just shows that you are desperate and trying for anything to the point that you are willing to distort my meta to fit the needs of your case.

"totally set up Robz's claim"

- well I can't deny that robz claimed after I brought it up. This is true. But what I will dispute is that I set it up. This is because I still maintain that mafia claiming in that situation is a terrible, bad move (and honestly one that I was hoping for because it would likely result in an eventual loss for mafia).

As a result, setting that sort of a claim up isn't something I would do as mafia. Why? Because it would be bad and I play to win. I don't know why Robz claimed... His partner is probably a bit frustrated with him. But it certainly wasn't something that was thought up in a QT. That should be pretty obvious. Because if it was thought up in a QT it would have been immediately quashed because it was a bad, bad move that had more harm for mafia than benefit. So the point that I "set-up" robz claim is bunk. Because for something to be "set-up" it needs to be thoughtout and anyone who would have thought about such a plan would have realized that it wasn't a good one and abandoned it. Compare this to the plan in mean girls... That had obvious benefits to mafia--closed setups versus open setups--whereas this... was just bad.

My whole reasoning for bringing it up was because almost all of the possibilities in regard to claiming were pretty good for town and I felt town would benefit. And look! We did!

But again I ask, who was the player that was all like "SHHHHHHH! Don't talk about roles and claiming from the outset and was panicked when I brought it up again?

Oh yeah! It was lio...

Really at this point I pretty certain it is lio. No one else fits the picture. I haven't created a huge case yet, I spent my time responding to his accusations instead--I drove home from my vacation, immediately went to work and have only written this and go to work again tomorrow and again the next day, so not a lot of time--but really I don't need to write up a huge case. The stuff is there for people to go and reread and I think it should be pretty obvious.

If people don't think it is obvious then they should lynch me. I would be willing to offer lio up a trade at this point. I am willing to be lynched as long as lio is the next lynch, I am that confident. If you want a percentage, I would put it at 80%. Lio would you agree to this trade?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #858 on: July 06, 2013, 11:34:11 pm »

and in response to eevee.

I think voltaire should only claim if he thinks it necessary. And he has already said that he didn't want to divulge anything. I think we need to respect that. And yes, I am treating him as an IC at this point. There isn't a logic narrative that works for me with him as mafia. And again I ask, who is a player who openly considered that and even kinda pushed it? Oh, yeah... scumlio!

In the meantime, why wouldn't we scumhunt? I suggest you scumhunt lio first!

I am out until tomorrow evening.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #859 on: July 06, 2013, 11:45:57 pm »

{one of the worst cases ever}

and by this I mean that it isn't "the worst" case ever... but rather that it is one of the cases that I have found the most frustrating in responding to because so much of it is founded on "yuma is too good to be this bad" when in reality I make mistakes just as often--if not more often--as I get it right and that frustrates me.

So, sorry if I sounded snippy or rude.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #860 on: July 07, 2013, 12:24:25 am »

Just reread yuma D1. First of all, he doesn't have as much of a presence as I remember him having in previous games. So slight scummy read here, although that was the same reasoning I voted for Nk.

Yuma complains about being told to not scumhunt (paraphrasing here): slight town, that is a genuine town worry

Yuma pushes case on Nk: Townie here, I think he was genuinely thinking that nk was scum.

So, in summary, I think Yuma has been acting like genuine town. However, I do like lio's case on him, and his defense not as much. So, I will unvote and wait for volt to claim JK target.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #861 on: July 07, 2013, 12:42:57 am »

So, the plan is to traditionally scumhunt and then have the people who might have helpful knowledge claim if they feel we are going in a horribly bad direction?
Multiple people want me to claim my target, so at least someone from town wants this!

Surprising no-one...

I jailed yuma last night.

If this causes a mis-lynch, sorry yuma, town will still probably win.

I love lio's case on yuma. Yuma feels like he's driving a lio mis-lynch. And y'all know I've had a (varying) scumread on yuma this game.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #862 on: July 07, 2013, 12:54:31 am »

I'd like yuma to answer this question:
Do you think we should discuss the meaning of this or just auto lynch you?

I'm asking because any sort of analysis on this runs a fairly significant risk of outing our doc.

Volt, what was your reasoning behind picking yuma?

I feel like anyone but yuma and volt weighing in has the potential of being very problematic for us, so lets all think twice before saying anything.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #863 on: July 07, 2013, 01:00:01 am »

Volt, what was your reasoning behind picking yuma?
Basically, my though process was:

- can't risk hitting the doc
- can't even count on there being a doc (though I think it's likely)
- need to save my own skin (in case I'm town's only PR)
- need to jail scum, then, not protect a townie
- I made a list of people scum > town
- then I made a separate list of those I thought could be the doc (I'm not sharing that for obvious reasons)
- then I decided that yuma was my top scum read with the lowest odds of being the doc

I figured worst-case scenario, I die as scum kills me because I jailed the doc, but I've also ensured that town has a secret doctor and super-strong player (yuma) still alive, in that worst-case scenario.

Then I decided that worse-case scenario was pretty darn good, and jailed yuma.

Scum could have anticipated this and no-lynched to try to frame someone. It's worth being paranoid about that I think.

(man, I'm bad at being V/LA...back to my "vacation")
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #864 on: July 07, 2013, 08:42:32 am »

Quick post before I head off to work

Alas, volt, you chose poorly.

I am the Doctor. I feel can claim this because mafia doing so is an auto-loss for them, because even if you do lynch me first, lynching them second results in a loss. (lio you want to claim here bud?) This should also be compelling evidence that I am not mafia... because mafia wouldn't claim doc here (because of the auto-loss part)

I doctored Voltaire Night1 and Night2. This is how I knew that Voltaire was town day2.

Because I knew that if Robz was town and in fact the cop then I was the only protective power and as such, the person I protected must have explained the NK--and if voltaire was mafia, he wouldn't target himself--so that scenario was bad. Thus Voltaire was town and Robz was mafia. End of day2. Also the reason I wanted to day to end quickly just in case for some crazy reason the mood switched to volt.

Go back and check my reads. I had voltaire at the very top of my reads.

This means that Volt was the mafia target night1--I saved him--and I was the mafia target night2. Volt saved me. Now... who would want to kill me. Pretty, old, innocent me? Maybe the player that I was harping on and calling out for being mafia? I would say lio...

But like I said, lynch me if you want. It just means that volt will die in the night and that we should lynch lio tomorrow. Or we could just lynch lio tonight.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #865 on: July 07, 2013, 08:44:08 am »

Also, being doc was the reason that I suggested the "follow the cop plan" because I knew we had a doc. and if we had a cop we were in a golden situation. But now we are in an even better one, like so much better that I am not even that stressed about being lynched today. I still think we have this game in the bag.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #866 on: July 07, 2013, 08:55:19 am »

A few quick more thoughts.

The gist of this is that if lio isn't mafia (I am pretty sure he is) keeping me alive is a good idea. Volt and I can wifom the mafia and try to keep each other alive.

From there we can continue to scum hunt, and I am pretty confident in our scum hunting abilities that we will eventually be able to flesh out the mafia.

If it does get to the point where we are at mylo and I am still alive and you guys are really suspecting me, then I promise that I won't fight a lynch of me at that point and we will just give mafia the game... because if they have survived that long, I wouldn't mind letting them win the game. And I really think we can scum hunt them well enough to win before that even becomes a problem.

But lynching me today is bad--I mean not super bad, because I still think we will win--because then you lose volt in the night (unless he JKs the correct player{lio}) and are out your two PRs. and if by some crazy chance lio isn't mafia... then we don't have anyone to prevent NKs and less days to flesh out the mafia via scum hunting.

Morale of the story.... if you really think I am still mafia after my claim, don't lynch me until mylo--where I promise I won't fight that lynch... heck I might even vote for myself and retire from mafia in shame because we weren't able to scum hunt well enough in what I consider to be a pretty easy situation.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #867 on: July 07, 2013, 09:34:44 am »

Well, I'm a VT. Everyone, claim asap. No reason not to anymore.

Some of yuma's posts from earlier can be interpreted as him being upset with Robz's decision to claim, and Robz was the killer night 1, that is very understandable.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #868 on: July 07, 2013, 09:35:42 am »

I'm a VT. more later.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #869 on: July 07, 2013, 12:12:51 pm »

People should finish claiming.

Based on info out there right now, I am cool lynching lio and/or yuma.

If yuma is telling the truth, how have the nights worked?

N1
Voltaire jails Robz
Yuma doctors Voltaire
lio cops ???
Robz kills Voltaire (blocked via both jailing/doctoring)

N2
Voltaire jails yuma
yuma doctors Voltaire (blocked via jailing)
lio kills yuma (blocked via jailing)
lio cops ???

Or are you saying something else, yuma?
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #870 on: July 07, 2013, 12:19:41 pm »

wait, what? I'm not a cop...
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #871 on: July 07, 2013, 12:28:01 pm »

wait, what? I'm not a cop...
Mafia has a rolecop. Robz was the goon. If yuma is telling the truth, you're the mafia rolecop. Regardless of who our final mafia is, they're a rolecop.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #872 on: July 07, 2013, 12:29:30 pm »

wait, what? I'm not a cop...
Mafia has a rolecop. Robz was the goon. If yuma is telling the truth, you're the mafia rolecop. Regardless of who our final mafia is, they're a rolecop.
Rather, if yuma is right, you're the rolecop.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #873 on: July 07, 2013, 12:29:57 pm »

oh, rolecop. Well, I'm not that either.

I'll assume that nobody counterclaims Yuma:

I still don't believe Yuma. As scum he's got to claim something, and if he's scum, he knows that robz did the kill and so there likely isn't a doctor, so he claims that. it's even possible that robz claimed thinking "even if I was jailkept, then people will convinced that my buddy did the kill, so yuma can claim doctor". And if he's telling the truth then either scum no killed, or scum killed yuma. I don't think scum would no kill because in doing so they need to get an extra mislynch through, which is a big hit. I don't think yuma would be the best kill option for them though, I'd think voltaire or chairs is more likely.

So the best explanation for me is that yuma is scum.

Even if yuma is telling the truth, that doesn't make me scum. He could be wrong you know... all he has on me is his reads, which aren't 100%.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #874 on: July 07, 2013, 12:40:40 pm »

I'd be very surprised if Robz decided to claim cop despite the kill he tried to perform last night not going through..

For yuma to be scum that had to have happened.. Meh, something unlikely NEEDS to have happened.

What if we leave yuma alive, what are the advantages? Will scum kill him, or let him live?
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