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Author Topic: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)  (Read 99007 times)

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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #825 on: July 05, 2013, 09:59:35 am »

massclaim is not neccessarily the right move.

There is a slim, but real chance that we only have 1 PR. In this case, we let scum fakeclaim. If there are two PRs, then we just let the other PR stay quiet and only claim when they might be lynched. it essentially has the same effect.

is volt IC?? I think it COULD be possible that he's scum, but very unlikely.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #826 on: July 05, 2013, 10:37:47 am »

is volt IC?? I think it COULD be possible that he's scum, but very unlikely.
I would honestly like to hear the case where I'm scum just because it would have to be so convoluted and likely involve setup error.

I'm thinking along the same lines as Eevee, and thought about this "overnight" - should we just fullclaim? If we only have 1 PR (me) then Rob made a daring gambit and I'm not sure what to do. Because in that setup I assume scum fakeclaims doctor. So what do we do?

Maybe lio has the right of it? I'm open to theory talk because I think it wins the game for us.

Also I kinda assumed scum might no-kill on purpose, so we do need to consider that.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #827 on: July 05, 2013, 10:43:38 am »

If there is a doctor they have another IC for us, right? Their N1 target?
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #828 on: July 05, 2013, 11:05:32 am »

well, you could be scum if you and robz staged all that, and you are the rolecop who found a doctor N1, and were confident for some reason that the doc was the only PR. But really, I'm going to assume that you're town.

should volt tell us who he jailkept? I'm thinking yes.

Would robz do what he did if he did the NK last night? From his perspective, there are three possibilities:

A) he was jailkept
B) his NK target was jailkept
C) his NK target was doctored.

So I think it's possible that he did the NK, and in that case, we might not have another PR.

Another question is: is it possible that he DIDN'T do the NK? He was a goon, that means that his partner is a rolecop. Can the rolecop kill and cop in the same night? If he can't, then robz almost certainly did the kill.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXIV: Back to Basics (signups open)
« Reply #829 on: July 05, 2013, 11:09:41 am »

From the first post of this thread:
Note: The Mafia must choose which player submits the night-kill; the Mafia Rolecop may submit an investigation AND night-kill, if desired.
I don't see any value in me revealing my JK target until we have a plan. And potentially until we're done claiming (if we do).

The rolecop is alive, and has N1 and N2 results now. If there is a doctor, they have a 33% chance of dying tonight based on that (7 alive, 1 mafia, 1 JK, 2 investigations, 3 left) [unless the mafia found the doc last night, in which case we lose the doctor tonight unless I can block the kill/accidentally hit the doc]
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXIV: Back to Basics (signups open)
« Reply #830 on: July 05, 2013, 11:14:36 am »

If there is a doctor, they have a 33% chance of dying tonight based on that (7 alive, 1 mafia, 1 JK, 2 investigations, 3 left) [unless the mafia found the doc last night, in which case we lose the doctor tonight unless I can block the kill/accidentally hit the doc]
it's more complicated than that. the rolecop may have gotten no result last night, and their kill might get blocked again.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXIV: Back to Basics (signups open)
« Reply #831 on: July 05, 2013, 11:17:07 am »

If there is a doctor, they have a 33% chance of dying tonight based on that (7 alive, 1 mafia, 1 JK, 2 investigations, 3 left) [unless the mafia found the doc last night, in which case we lose the doctor tonight unless I can block the kill/accidentally hit the doc]
it's more complicated than that. the rolecop may have gotten no result last night, and their kill might get blocked again.
If it was blocked. I still think mafia may have no-killed on purpose to create a more plausible claim down the line. I mean, they're in a terrible spot right now and have to be incredibly creative.

I want to hear from more experienced players on what to do. As long as I hear at least two plans, one of them has to be from town.

Also yuma you seemed pretty sure lio's the last mafia yesterday - can you expound on that if you still hold that opinion?
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #832 on: July 05, 2013, 11:34:24 am »

Gut instinct wins vs scum!Robz for me yay :)

I hope we can get so lucky with today's lynch!

mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #833 on: July 05, 2013, 12:23:31 pm »

Oh yes! This is very good.

Sometime today, volt needs to claim his target. I will then actively push lynching him/her.
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liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #834 on: July 05, 2013, 12:28:59 pm »

I agree that whoever was jailkept should get extra suspicion, but they aren't automatically scum.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #835 on: July 05, 2013, 12:31:39 pm »

I agree that whoever was jailkept should get extra suspicion, but they aren't automatically scum.
Well, in all likelihood they are, and so if there is not any other damning evidence against someone else, I will pursue lynching the jail kept.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #836 on: July 05, 2013, 01:50:29 pm »

Okay here is what I think, I think we are finally in a good position that we can use to win with good old fashion scum hunting. I think there are so many things that could go into the no nk that we shouldn't use jk targets as a reference for scum or town. I think got should just keep jailing whoever he feels comfortable jailing and if we have a doctor tey decide whether they protect volt or guess that scum doesn't try to kill volt and protect someone else.

I think we ride that advantage rather than out our doc if we have one or lynch based on night kill theories.

Lastly I do think volt is an ic, and theres no way robz and volt made that up and had it work. However if we are worried we need volt to give us your last night target because if you are scum your going to mess up and say you blocked our real pr eventually.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #837 on: July 05, 2013, 03:04:12 pm »

Just a reminder that I'm V/LA from now until late Sunday. If you need me for anything, it'll have to wait. Sorry!
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #838 on: July 06, 2013, 12:20:12 am »

I see no reason to not to vote: liopoil.

See my case below as well as his initial hesitancy to 1. talk about claiming--which is ultimately what led to Robz being outed 2. his hesitancy to lynch Robz, because he knew that once Robz was lynched it was a desperate situation.

Really, I don't have any concerete evidence, but my gut says liopoil, has for most of today and I feel it is correct. Maybe it is mail-mi and robz was bussing. Maybe eevee if robz wanted to WIFOM with his pseudo investigation, maybe mcmc, maybe chairs with bussing again. But all of those are much less likely than liopoil, like significantly less...

Also see Robz defending liopoil throughout most of day2 after my case on him--well that and my vote and then mcmc's and spiritbears and mail-mi's votes on him...

I am still mostly VLA so dont' have a chance to go back and make a case, but will be back Saturday night... and if lio is still alive then, I will see if I can put something together, if not by then, then I certainly will Tuesday morning.
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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #839 on: July 06, 2013, 12:31:58 am »

Shraeye you might want to change the D1 link in the OP so that it goes to the real D1 instead of the abandoned game D1 I was just starting a reread and I reread like 5 pages of that!
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

mcmcsalot

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #840 on: July 06, 2013, 10:09:30 am »

I agree with Yuma, I also found liopoil scummy before robz claim. vote: liopoil
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #841 on: July 06, 2013, 10:39:55 am »

I would like for us not to lynch anyone until I can put up a proper post btw - voting's cool, it gets reactions, but no lynch plz. And I'd like eevee or chairs to seriously consider yuma so I can have a second opinion. Feel free to tell me I'm crazy if that's the conclusion you reach.

And gone till Sunday again.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #842 on: July 06, 2013, 11:15:27 am »

Sounds crazy to me that you guys (mcmc the most I guess) want to lynch based on traditional scum hunting here. We have so much information and can afford at least two mislynches! Why would we not have Voltaire claim fhis target first, given he already claimed jailkeeper?

Also I would at least like for people to consider how bad it is if our doctor gets jailkept. As long as the doc protects Voltaire and Voltaire targets anyone but the doc, we are creating IC's left and right and have an excellent chance at either finding or poe'ing to scum.

What do people think the possibility of scum nokilling last night? Night 1 I think it's very low.

Robz couldn't possible have been the one to make the kill N2, am I right? Scum was in good position at the time of his claim, and if he was the killer it's 33% that he was jailkept, right? Add to that the possibility of another cop or doc + JK, I just don't see. We need confirmation from the mods; Would a mafia rolecop be able to cop and kill[?/b] Because is yes, it makes a ton of sense for Robz NOT to do the kill - almost anyone would be less likely to be targeted by JK/cop in their perspection (and reality too, as we can see now).

Oh, and if we assume Robz would realize he might have gotten jailkept and wouldnt fakeclaim had he been the killer night 1, there has to be a doctor. Anyone contest this assumption?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #843 on: July 06, 2013, 11:15:38 am »

Damnit. Well, you get the point.
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chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #844 on: July 06, 2013, 01:22:09 pm »

I would like for us not to lynch anyone until I can put up a proper post btw - voting's cool, it gets reactions, but no lynch plz. And I'd like eevee or chairs to seriously consider yuma so I can have a second opinion. Feel free to tell me I'm crazy if that's the conclusion you reach.

And gone till Sunday again.

Yuma's a hard read for me, but I'll try to give it a go.  Nobody's eaten at my gut the way Robz did.

chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #845 on: July 06, 2013, 01:25:48 pm »

It's okay to quote modposts from within this thread, right?  Because as far as mafia rolecop question:

"Note: The Mafia must choose which player submits the night-kill; the Mafia Rolecop may submit an investigation AND night-kill, if desired."

chairs

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #846 on: July 06, 2013, 02:03:32 pm »

I went through and did some rereading, and here's my opinion:

Out of the players left in the game, the likeliest targets in my mind for lynching are yuma and eevee - particularly Eevee.

liopoil does strike me as a bit scummy, but I don't think a liopoil mislynch would tell us as much as, say, a yuma mislynch.
voltaire theoretically could be scum faking jailkeeper, but that'd be an awfully sly move AND he'd have bussed his scumpartner, so that seems like a poor move if he's scum.

Eevee I'm completely reading into based on the things SB said before leaving - Eevee's been much more circumspect, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that SB was Mafia.

liopoil

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #847 on: July 06, 2013, 03:34:40 pm »

I agree with Yuma, I also found liopoil scummy before robz claim. vote: liopoil
this is getting frustrating man. D2, you disagreed with me about SB, but didn't vote. Then when yuma said he had a case on me, you decided that I was pushing a SB lynch scummily. Then today, you posted, said nothing about me, then as soon as yuma posts about me, you vote for me. I mean, come on! do you like, not want to be the first on the wagon or something? and the thing is, this isn't anything new. I've been scum exactly once, and you were my scumbuddy. I've been town in every single other game, and in every single other game, you've heavily suspected me.

You aren't sheeping Yuma though, you have different reasons. you're reason is that I was trying to lynch someone who you think is town, and apparently did it in a scummy way because I was taking the easy way out, and would be more likely to do that as scum than town. I mean, that's just SO weak now, we have a dead scum to look at, and you're basing your read off of having an uncomfirmed townread on another player and interpreting the way I don't share that read as scummy.

Look, I'm sure you aren't finding me scummy over and over again on purpose, but it's getting kinda out of hand. Part of me thinks that you're scum because if you were town you would realize that your reasoning is weak and you just always find me scummy.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm going to Vote: Yuma.

he's awfully certain about me while saying things like:
I see no reason to not to vote: liopoil.

[snip]

Really, I don't have any concerete evidence, but my gut says liopoil, has for most of today and I feel it is correct.

[snip]


And his big post on me:
which is primarily saying that I am trying to steer town to its downfall.

He has other reasons, and plans on making another big case apparently. But here's the deal:

For Yuma, having bad reads is a scumtell. Yes. In my time here, whenever he's town he does really well at catching scum, with few exceptions. And he's gotten it badly wrong this game. He was wrong on nkirbit, and he's terribly wrong on me. Sure, he didn't oppose Robz's lynch, but nobody did, it was the clear lynch of the day.

I'll cite mean girls. He was scum there, and was "wrong" on robz, mcmc, and xeiron, and then won by lynching mail-mi. Scum also won that game by fakeclaiming. Scum fakeclaimed in this game, and in reality, it was probably a good move by robz, just didn't work out. And I think Yuma set robz up to do it. he started the theory discussion in the middle of the day:

Warning: about to do some theory discussion below...

[snip]

... as such I realize that there may be a benefit of having a cop (if there is one) claim today.

Here is why:

[snip]

If people really don't want to discuss this, I am sorry, but I think this specific scenario is worth talking about because it could put town in an incredibly advantageous situation.

and robz replies with:

I think we should do it. I like plans like this. The best case scenario is really good, the worst case scenario is very unlikely, and the middle scenarios are OKAY.

and in his next post:

Yeah, let's just do it.  ;D

I am the Cop.

I really think Yuma set him up to do that, so that his claim didn't come out of nowhere.

So really, I have 3 main points:

- case on me is weak and looks strongly to me like pushing a mislynch.
- town!yuma gets it right, scum!yuma gets it wrong. Yuma has been getting it wrong.
- totally set robz's claim up.

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mail-mi

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #848 on: July 06, 2013, 04:29:53 pm »

I reread D1 chairs and he seems like genuine newbie town.

I also really like lio's case on yuma, and will vote: yuma

Going to Despicable Me 2 so i might put some stuff together later.
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'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Twistedarcher

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Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 3)
« Reply #849 on: July 06, 2013, 05:30:01 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

liopoil (2): yuma, mcmcsalot
yuma (2): liopoil, mail-mi

Not voting: chairs, Eevee, Voltaire

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline is 9am forum time on Monday, July 20th
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