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[mail-mi]

mail-mi, you are still voting for yuma (suspicious!!), and liopoil (because you still harbor yuma suspision I'm sure:

Keeping yuma alive keeps Voltaire alive. When the amount of people alive decreases, jailkeeper starts becoming a powerhouse. He effectively has two shots at preventing the night kill - he can either hit the killer or the target. Even if yuma is mafia, he can't kill Voltaire as that would blow his cover. Doesn't that make keeping yuma alive the best plan, even if you think there is a good chance he is mafia? We can afford to have him try to kill for two nights here.

...I'm not. And yes, I do want to keep yuma alive.

[liopoil]

mail-mi, you are still voting for yuma (suspicious!!), and liopoil (because you still harbor yuma suspision I'm sure:

Keeping yuma alive keeps Voltaire alive. When the amount of people alive decreases, jailkeeper starts becoming a powerhouse. He effectively has two shots at preventing the night kill - he can either hit the killer or the target. Even if yuma is mafia, he can't kill Voltaire as that would blow his cover. Doesn't that make keeping yuma alive the best plan, even if you think there is a good chance he is mafia? We can afford to have him try to kill for two nights here.

oh yes, I agree. It's just really convenient for him if he is scum. but yes, I am willing to let him live for now.

[liopoil]

I still think you are scum, but am nowhere near the 80% certain that you are about me, and I never was. So no, I will not accept your trade because it gives scum a very good chance if you are town, when they have little to no chance right now. And this level of certainty is part of my suspicion. It is super easy to fake suspicion as scum. And town just shouldn't be this certain about me, even if I was super-scummy, which I'm not. If you are town, Yuma, you are hurting town by getting so caught up in your theory that I am scum and fitting everything you see into your theory, making you more and more certain to the point where both of our mislynches seem inevitable.

I think we may be throwing away the big lead on scum that we have right now.

You won't be getting a case from me today. I have said already that it would be tell Monday that I would have sufficient time to do a full reread and put something together.

It is also super easy to fake being uncertain as mafia. See Robz in MXIX.

I am town, and I refuse to see how I am hurting town by having a scum read! My scum read is completely valid and legitimate. You have some scummy attributes. Far more so than anyone else in the game! Maybe I should just create scum reads on other players to even the playing field? NO! I see scummy, I call out scummy. That is how the game plays. And I am certainly not caught up in my theory. I am looking at what is being presented. I mean really... look at it from my point of view. Who else but you at this point is suspicious?

you haven't recommended anyone else to find scummy have you? Voltaire is out. eevee/spiritbears I really think is town based off the derphammer and Robz's pseudoinvestigation. Mcmc is playing exactly how I think town!mcmc plays. Mail-mi I still think was the easy day1 mislynch. Chairs is a toss up. But you thought he was the most likely NK aside from voltaire--so you must think he is townie...

So who else am I supposed to suspect? Mafia isn't me. I don't think it is any of those above players... therefore I am left with you, who also has scummy attributes.

Look if you are town, then I am wrong. It won't be the first time. But instead of saying that I am "hurting town" by presenting a case against you, maybe you should concentrate more on trying to figure out who is mafia. It isn't me, if it isn't you, then it is someone else. But it will take a bit to convince me to vote somewhere other than you. But I can be convinced if the case and evidence is compelling. But I haven't seen anything compelling on anyone except what I have presented on you.

I agree that voltaire, and chairs, and somewhat eevee/SB even are probably town. mail-mi and mcmc not so much. And then you.

my scum to town:

yuma
mcmcsalot
mail-mi
Eevee
chairs
voltaire

You aren't hurting town by having a scumread. You are hurting town by being too certain in your scumread when (at least I think) the evidence doesn't warrant it. That's only if you're town though.

[yuma]

Yuma, why the town reads on mcmc and mail-mi?

To me, none of them (including chairs) seem particularly towny. Mcmc has been totally useless today, mail-mi I think I perceive scummier when he is town (I think he is middling here), chairs is hard to read as there are no completed games from him to reference, but pretty null there too.

well as I said before, I think mcmc is playing how he does as town. Lack of interest, lower post count, not dictating the game, etc etc... Now this could be a ploy. I admit it. But I don't think it is. The reason: because for a ploy it is on the riskier side. It is very easy for a handful of us to get up in arms and say "mcmc is lurking and playing weird! Let's lynch him" and then he is dead, game over... I tend to think that play styles like this--even if you have a meta defense--are more likely to be town than scum. I don't remember much interaction between robz and mcmc. There could have been some, I would want to go back and look.

Mail-mi, again as I said before I think was the easy mislynch. Robz is one example of a person that was on it and actively pushing it. Why? Because I think it was the easy one. For mail-mi to be Robz's partner he had to have been bussing. Possible. But again I say in a 9 player game, bussing is generally going to be a bad move.


But really the thing is that I haven't seen anything that jumps out to me as scum from them. Not in the same way that I have seen behavior from liopoil. I know I haven't outlined a big old fancy case... been kinda busy and still will be tonight (sorry)... but at the same time I dont' see anyone else doing any rereading or posting cases... What is going on? Is everyone just waiting for me? Or is everyone also busy (a valid answer obviously). But just because I haven't reread fully or made up a big case (or even a small case) doesn't mean other people can't...

[Eevee]

Good, valid points. I agree, especially about mcmc.
I'd be willing to vote for liopoil, as that's where the PoE points at.

[Voltaire]

Good, valid points. I agree, especially about mcmc.
I'd be willing to vote for liopoil, as that's where the PoE points at.

Why are we willing to leave Yuma alive if we think he's scum? He's claimed doctor and if he's scum, it's working. We've "agreed" to his plan not to lynch him until mylo/lylo, at which point he'll have some super-compelling case on someone else after saying he's mistaken.

I mean, I'm willing to lynch lio because he's my top off-wagon scumread, so that's cool. But if he's Robz's scumbuddy why is he the only one to try to alter the Robz/Voltaire direction? Isn't that a bit obvious? And his rebuttal to yuma's case is pretty good. I like his substance but not his style (his style was scummy to me).

If lio/yuma is town v town, I say last scum is mail-mi. Yes, Robz would try to bus/tunnel like that.

[mail-mi]

Good, valid points. I agree, especially about mcmc.
I'd be willing to vote for liopoil, as that's where the PoE points at.

Me too.

[Eevee]

Its because leaving yuma alive if he isn't lying is pretty great! We shouldn't fear his case making skills, on the contrary they'll be helping us if he is town. And, well, your jailkeeping might give us some information on later days.

In short, the same reason we don't generally lynch claimed power roles early in other situations either.

[liopoil]

well this is frustrating. I'm in the position where my top scumread isn't going to get lynched, and I see the reasoning behind that, hence my unvote. And everyone seems to be willing to lynch me. I can't push an alternative wagon because I really don't believe too heavily in an alternative wagon, so it leads me right back to Yuma being scum. so it seems that I am the only lynch that can happen today. And I mean, I don't really understand why I've been so separated from everyone else. Nobody except yuma has really said why they think I'm scum, and I responded to yuma, and people agree with my rebuttle! So I don't know what I can do. In previous times when I've been nearly mislynched I've avoided it by defending myself, but there's nothing for me to defend myself against because you're using POE! And the thing is, I kind of agree with the POE! And yuma hasn't even made his case yet! I can't respond to that! I understand he's busy and all, but I can't respond to a case that isn't there yet.

I'd like people to see why people think I'm scum, so I can at least defend myself. If it's just POE, I might as well self-vote and get it over with, because there's nothing I can do about that. Sometimes scum looks townie, and that's when they win.

I'm in a lose-lose situation here. I'm town, and there's no way for me to prevent my mislynch.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

since we aren't lynching Yuma today, I might as well assume he's town. And since I'm town too, that means that scum is playing a very good game, and that's scary, because with my mislynch today and yuma's mislynch in mylo/lylo, we only have one chance to catch the scum in {chairs, mcmc, mail-mi, eevee, voltaire}. (remember I am assuming yuma is town because we aren't lynching him).

So really, at this point, I feel like we've lost our advantage on scum. Scum is winning now.

[Eevee]

That's simply not true. (if it was, we should be lynching yuma.)

[liopoil]

what's not true? that yuma hasn't made his case? well, he was going to write up a big fancy thing. he's said stuff for sure, and there's the case from D2. But I've responded to all that! Not anything more for me to do.

I dunno, it's weird. I guess eventually there's always a point where you've done all that you can do and just have to resign yourself to being mislynched.

[Eevee]

Oh, I was referring to the last two lines of your post. "Scum has the advantage now" is an incorrect conclusion.

[liopoil]

if yuma is town, then I think they do, because they only need to get one more mislynch, as they seem to have the yuma and liopoil mislynches in the bad.

I feel like we're betting the game on one of yuma and I being scum. Not literally, but fairly close.

[Eevee]

It's not even that close, although I do see your worry. You are just seriously underestimating the power this town has during nights if yuma is town and gets to work his magic with volt. jailkeeper is very good in the following nights, and hopefully we have a doc too.

[yuma]

tomorrow morning I will do a full reread and present cases on everyone.

I do feel for lio if he is town and will try to approach it in the fairest way that I am able--there will be bias, but I will try to counter it as best as I can.

[mcmcsalot]

I still think you are scum, but am nowhere near the 80% certain that you are about me, and I never was. So no, I will not accept your trade because it gives scum a very good chance if you are town, when they have little to no chance right now. And this level of certainty is part of my suspicion. It is super easy to fake suspicion as scum. And town just shouldn't be this certain about me, even if I was super-scummy, which I'm not. If you are town, Yuma, you are hurting town by getting so caught up in your theory that I am scum and fitting everything you see into your theory, making you more and more certain to the point where both of our mislynches seem inevitable.

I think we may be throwing away the big lead on scum that we have right now.

You won't be getting a case from me today. I have said already that it would be tell Monday that I would have sufficient time to do a full reread and put something together.

It is also super easy to fake being uncertain as mafia. See Robz in MXIX.

I am town, and I refuse to see how I am hurting town by having a scum read! My scum read is completely valid and legitimate. You have some scummy attributes. Far more so than anyone else in the game! Maybe I should just create scum reads on other players to even the playing field? NO! I see scummy, I call out scummy. That is how the game plays. And I am certainly not caught up in my theory. I am looking at what is being presented. I mean really... look at it from my point of view. Who else but you at this point is suspicious?

you haven't recommended anyone else to find scummy have you? Voltaire is out. eevee/spiritbears I really think is town based off the derphammer and Robz's pseudoinvestigation. Mcmc is playing exactly how I think town!mcmc plays. Mail-mi I still think was the easy day1 mislynch. Chairs is a toss up. But you thought he was the most likely NK aside from voltaire--so you must think he is townie...

So who else am I supposed to suspect? Mafia isn't me. I don't think it is any of those above players... therefore I am left with you, who also has scummy attributes.

Look if you are town, then I am wrong. It won't be the first time. But instead of saying that I am "hurting town" by presenting a case against you, maybe you should concentrate more on trying to figure out who is mafia. It isn't me, if it isn't you, then it is someone else. But it will take a bit to convince me to vote somewhere other than you. But I can be convinced if the case and evidence is compelling. But I haven't seen anything compelling on anyone except what I have presented on you.

I agree that voltaire, and chairs, and somewhat eevee/SB even are probably town. mail-mi and mcmc not so much. And then you.

my scum to town:

yuma
mcmcsalot
mail-mi
Eevee
chairs
voltaire

You aren't hurting town by having a scumread. You are hurting town by being too certain in your scumread when (at least I think) the evidence doesn't warrant it. That's only if you're town though.

Funny enough I agree with the en somewhat. I think if we lynch you and Yuma and mail-mi we win. Though I need to reread chairs.

[liopoil]

It's not even that close, although I do see your worry. You are just seriously underestimating the power this town has during nights if yuma is town and gets to work his magic with volt. jailkeeper is very good in the following nights, and hopefully we have a doc too.

oh, I hadn't even considered that the scum still needs to get NKs through... hmmm, yes that makes it very difficult. okay, that makes me feel better about it.

[Voltaire]

I should clarify - I am willing to lynch lio simply so that we have a lynch (eliminating town helps us find mafia at this point since we're in such amazing shape) and think there's a >0% chance he's scum, but it's not my preferred course of action. I would rather lynch yuma or pressure mail-mi more. Also totally willing to scumhunt others but I have varying degrees of town reads on everyone else.

Because the situation where we lynch yuma and it turns out he's the doctor also isn't that bad, because we still have me to lock up some mafia. And I am not so sure we aren't already in that situation with a fakeclaim.

So lio, who is your top scum read? Is it yuma, or was that just pushing him as the only viable alternative lynch (which is a bit OMGUS)?

Basically town let's come to a decision, we have time to get it wrong.

[yuma]

Because the situation where we lynch yuma and it turns out he's the doctor also isn't that bad, because we still have me to lock up some mafia. And I am not so sure we aren't already in that situation with a fakeclaim.

I agree it isn't that bad. But compared to the option of not lynching me it is significantly worse. Because you would only have one chance to JK someone and if you get it wrong... you die. And town is left w/o PRs or IC in you. So it isn't that bad in that I think we (and by we, I mean everyone that is left, because I would be dead) would still be able to find the remaining mafia with pretty good odds. But keeping me alive results in at least the three more days we have and maybe more if you don't JK me and I doctor you each night (maybe you will be able to JK the killer or the killie and we will get more days out of it).

But ultimately again I say that if you disbelieve me then lynch me. But if you have doubts.... keep me alive and then lynch me at mylo or lylo. I won't fight it. I really won't. I'll vote for myself. Because at that point we would have deserved to lose if we weren't able to figure out who the last remaining mafia is in the two days we do have + whatever else we gain from no NKs...

[yuma]

Cases on everyone coming up:

Let's start with the less obvious: eevee/spiritbears.

Points why eevee/spiritbears might be mafia:
- Robz used him as his pseudo cop investigation. Note I have this listed both here and below. Robz might have paired himself with his partner. Possible certainly...
- the hammer: could be a scum derp!hammer. I admit it is possible. But I doubt it.

Points why eevee/spiritbears might not be mafia:
- not really a point, but if he is then robz/spiritbears were mafia again together. Really odds? Really?
- day1 I felt he was consistent in his reads and opinions and posts. He disliked my case on mail-mi (certainly a valid point) he also refused to be pressured away from voting me in the same way that Voltaire wasn't.
- His hammer at the end of day1. Lio sees it as scummy. I don't. I really don't. His switch on nkiribit just read so much more of a frustration switch to me than anything scummy.
- Robz used him as his pseudo cop investigation. One point I want to make is that in a time when you are fake claiming you want people to believe you. It is paramount. And a good way to do that is to make sure that you portray someone else (that isn't on your team) in a positive light. Robz's picking eevee I believe might have been intended to help eevee side with robz if it came to that. In that light Robz would have support from both eevee and his teammate and would only need support from a handful of others.
- there is a pretty significant argument between robz and spiritbears right before spiritbears leaves. I think this has the marks of town spiritbears against scum!robz. Again could be faked. But that sort of spat can be hard to fake.
- eevee forgot to include robz on his list when he initially came into the game.
- Robz's claim. I doubt that robz would do something like that w/o consulting with his new scum partner (eevee). Just too crazy.
- Eevee has played townie since he came into the game.

Summary: pretty strong on the town side.

[yuma]

mail-mi:

Could be mafia:
- lurky.
- his stance of mcmc early (what initially caught my eye on him)
- his convenient reread of nkiribit and finding him scummy for it. But we have seen town!mail-mi do that as well. So kinda null there...
- finding spiritbears scummy at beginning of day2. But wrong reads (or reads different from me) isn't necessarily scummy, but kinda surprising.
- joined the robz wagon w/o much thought it appears... maybe joining his partner's wagon just to be on it.


Couldn't be mafia:
- lurky like town!mail-mi
- bussed by mafia (robz) pretty significantly at day2 and throughout day1. Yes bussing can happen. But people... bussing in a 9 player game. Just hard, hard to do and risky. But just as risky as claiming cop day2 as well. But robz doing both risky things? That might be a bit much for me.
- really looked like the easy mislynch day1 that was being pushed by at least one mafia member (robz)


summary: in the middle. Given that there are 5 players I am analyzing and only 1 mafia I don't mind putting someone that is null on the more townie side... So on the townier side of things, but not the most townie.

[yuma]

chairs:

Might be mafia:
- his certainty about robz being mafia. If he was certain w/o reason this would be a major read flag. As it would indicate that robz told him to buss him, but that chairs as a newer player might have struggled to find reasons for doing so. So this is less so, but still being completely accurate about a scum read with that level of certainty does raise some eyebrows.
- has been pretty quiet in terms of reads aside from his certainty about robz.


Might not be mafia:
- was the early target from Robz. Bussing again. But 9 player game! Bussing is bad and so, so hard. So town points for him.
- voted for robz often and early day1 and day2. Wasn't constantly on that case, but pretty often. Again bussing. For a new player that takes guts. Maybe was instructed by Robz to do so. But.... man. I think his rationale is pretty good though. It isn't like he was just voting for robz w/o reason. I felt most of his reasons throughout were pretty compelling.

Again in the middle, but on the more townie side of the middle. Rereading chairs he did harp on Robz a lot. Now did he do it as townie or a scum with knowledge and told to do so by Robz? This is ultimately the question for chairs and if we can answer it I think it will make the difference for him.

I think I might even put him on the scummier side of mail-mi. That is if robz was partners with chairs the mutual bussing was a little more transparent than the bussing between mail-mi and robz. But they are pretty close.

[yuma]

mcmc:

Might be mafia:
- extremely lurky (39 posts for the whole game--the false start game as well), but he is busy enough to /out of other games.
- has kinda "sheeped" me on nkirbit and liopoil. but that is a pretty good way to play if you are super busy (follow someone that you consider to be town), but it also can be a convenient way to post as busy mafia.


Might not be mafia:
- appears to be town!mcmc that we have seen before when he was busy. scum!mcmc finds time in his busy life to post because it is essential to do so, to manipulate town and force to away from you or your scum buddy you have to post. town!mcmc doesn't make posting a prioirty because it isn't and he just posts when he can...
- his "vt claim" this part is becoming less and less important to me. But it was the basis of my town read from the beginning and I still want to include it.
- immediately on the voltaire side of the counter claim and has reasoning and rationale to prove it.

townier side. I think more so than mail-mi and chairs. But not as much as eevee.

[yuma]

liopoil:

might be mafia:
- self referencing (LVS), small point, but want to repeat it.
- was one of the joiner-ons of my initial case on mail-mi. I repeat that I found people that joined that or supported it (robz supported it day1, but didn't vote) to be scummy. It was the focus of my case on nkirbit and while I was wrong about him, I still believe the principle that mail-mi was the easy mislynch that I think mafia would try to push through
- mcmc has brought this up in a previous game (and was wrong) but I am noticing it here. Lio does appear to be trying to setup mislynches for the next day. Specifically he is casting a great amount of suspicion toward me and spiritbears--all the while considering voting for nkirbit and following my case, basically trying to say "yuma makes a good point, but if he is wrong {he is and I know it} I am going to find him very scummy for it and vote him tomorrow, so should you..."
- pushed what looked like another super easy mislynch right out of the gates day2 on spiritbears. Looked planned and tried to take hold of town and push the momentum in a specific direction (note that the direction was certainly away from robz, his potential partner as he was pushing toward mail-mi, yuma and spiritbears)
- uses a tactic that I will call "righteous indignation" that I know mafia uses pretty often. This is saying "spiritbears it was wrong for you to vote nkirbit, we still could have moved away from that lynch and been right! We could have changed and lynched mafia day1! Why, o Why! did you derphammer, becasue you did this you are soooo scummy because only scum would do something sooo bad." {dramatized, but you get the point}
- mildly defends robz against chairs
- is really opposed to my talk about claiming (easy position for mafia to take, that claiming talk is bad), but I wonder if he knew that if "follow the doc" happened it would be bad for him and his team?
- I hate to put this into it, but I knew that lio was online and looking at this thread after the robz/voltaire claims. I even called him out on it. Now... he might not have seen it, I dont' know.. being away from the computer or something. But it does make me wonder. Did he see the claims and then shut the computer so he would have time to think of what to say and how to respond? I don't know. But it surprised me when I saw him looking at the thread, but didn't respond until much, much later.
- was really the only player that expressed doubt about voltaire--but in a safe way--was very non commital at the start, kinda like he was testing the waters and seeing if anyone else would possibly agree with him and move the tide toward voltaire. When he saw it wouldn't he said he was ok with a robz lynch (but was still pretty strongly against actually lynching, for what reason I still don't know...) Now people have already mentioned that if this is true it was pretty obvious. Yes, but at that juncture if lio is mafia he is desperate. His partner just claimed in what I think was probably an unplanned way. He is scrambling. He knows that if robz goes down the game is basically over. So he is being risky and obvious because he has to be to have any chance of lynching voltaire instead of robz.
- even after robz was lynched he was really the only one hypothesizing about voltaire being mafia... Really? Volt is IC man... and even w/o my info to confirm this it is pretty apparent that
- he has been the most skeptical that Robz wouldn't have performed the NK, because thinking that he didn't requires him to believe there is a doctor and thus not believe me. Everyone else thinks robz didn't perform the kill, lio still is like "guys, we don't know that! and since we don't know that, yuma is probably lying!"
- look if lio is mafia, the best chance he had was to lynch me the doc. With me alive his chances of winning are very slim and he was very unwilling to give up that option. He eventually did, but only after it was apparent that it wasn't going to happen.

Might not be mafia:
- has been active and vocal. But I would except that from town!lio or scum!lio.
- some obvious stuff arguments. Yes, if lio is mafia there has been some obvious play
- his defenses have been pretty strong, but I would expect that.


Still strongest scum read. Lio if you aren't mafia then sorry man. You have a lot of indicators pointing to it however. Like not just a lot, like more than all the other players combined.

vote: lio again, I think others should as well.

[mail-mi]

Man that's compelling... I would go back and look at some more stuff from lio but I think yuma's covered everything.

vote: liopoil