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[Voltaire]

Also hello Eevee! If you've dropped in as town that should be a great help to us. 

[Robz888]

You and mcmc were clearly following yuma's vote, which carried no explanation. Mcmc's quick justification of the sheeping rings false to me. You, I tihnk, are merely wrong.

I hate to feel like I'm tunneling Robz, but this is another post that just struck my "You don't seem as though you should necessarily be that concise" nerve.  Why does mcmc sound bad when SB just sounds wrong (and admittedly perhaps a bit stubborn)?  Your lack of deep explanation makes this post somewhat less than beneficial, I think (I welcome and encourage disagreement/critique here) and continues your slide towards scum!Robz in my mind.

Because SB is SB and mcmc is mcmc. No, honestly. SB is very often wrong and his cases poorly founded and I don't take what he is saying seriously, and I just assume him to be wrong town. Interestingly enough, I told him to act that way when we were scum together before the reset, so perhaps he's faking, but I was assuming he's just wrong town.

Mcmc, though, I value what he says a bit more, and so yes I find him scummy for that when I didn't find SB for that. The same things don't apply to the same people.

[Robz888]

I don't find yuma's case on lio compelling. He's quite wrong to think SB scummy for the hammer (probably), but that seems like a reasonable reaction, if not the correct one. The rest of the things, you list them, but they don't read scum to me.

[Robz888]

Both yuma and Robz are finding people scummy for things they themselves are doing.

Like what?

[Robz888]

And also, again, the number of people willing to just do what yuma says is staggering. We can add mail-mi to that last. At least he let yuma make the case first, I guess.

[Robz888]

Lastly, having Eevee sub in is a nice win for town. I think he's substantially more likely to be town than anyone else, since SB was yeah, probably town. This is very good.

Eevee! They are all listening to yuma. Just look. EVERYBODY is sheeping yuma. He's a wonderful guy, I really like him, but there's no way he's right if everyone is just going along with him. If he's not scum himself, certainly the scum are hanging on his every word.

Tell the world how right I am. Thanks.

[yuma]

Eevee! They are all listening to yuma. Just look. EVERYBODY is sheeping yuma. He's a wonderful guy, I really like him, but there's no way he's right if everyone is just going along with him. If he's not scum himself, certainly the scum are hanging on his every word.

Tell the world how right I am. Thanks.

I agree... well not everyone is sheeping me. Voltaire isn't. You aren't. Lio obviously isn't. Chairs isn't. Eevee... well we will see what he thinks.

So there is mail-mi, mcmc and spiritbears (who is now eevee) so everyone is an exaggeration. But the point you make remains. Yesterday was just people waiting around for me to make cases and then voting because of them.

I mean, it is gratifying that people think my cases are good. Obvioulsy the one on nkiribit wasn't. I don't know if the one on lio is or not. I will go read his responses and see what comes of them.

Ultimately I am trying to change up how I read people and try and go about this differently, because aside from a really solid case on WinterSpartan in Ninjas, calling out archetype in bankers and a somewhat lucky, but still really solid case on Dsell in the Blitz game, I haven't had the best of luck as of late and part of that is because I think I am calling out weird behavior as opposed to mafia play.

But at the same time balancing that out with what we have been talking about with Galz and his being frustrated that the more active players are the ones that make noise and thus get lynched...

So somwhere I am trying to find mafia that is playing a sophisticated game--because I think everyone here is capable of playing a sophisticated game--that isn't obviously scummy, but also isn't obviously town. Nkirbit I felt fell into that category and I think lio might as well. I was wrong about nkirbit. I hope I am not about lio.

[yuma]

Alright, what struck me as scummy was how lio was trying to set the tone and the mood of the town in each new post at the beginning of day. It wasn't very blatant, it was subtle, but it is certainly there. He is coming into this day with an agenda and trying to move town toward a specific goal, a specific direction... scum does that. Not town.

nope nope nope.

Yes, I was leading town a bit. you do that all the time Yuma, you lead us right into that D1 mislynch. (whether or not you knew it was a mislynch remains to be seen). leading town isn't scummy, you know that. and this is something I have done before. See my first post of D3 in mean girls, where I totally set the agenda for town, prepared that post in the night even, and was town.

I am not saying that leading town is scummy. It is null. What I am finding scummy is a concerted effort by you to get us to look away from you specifically. Your first posts of the day were very direct and very forceful.

Your point about mean girls is valid. Maybe it is because I tend to not do that. I don't create posts beforehand as town... I do that as mafia. Almost always I do that as mafia, because as mafia I am paranoid and need to create posts, or at least the basic outlines and thoughts of posts, before that I can fall back during crunch time. But very, very rarely as town. Really the only time I make a post beforehand are start of day post counts. So for you to do that and just come out of the gates swinging makes it look like you have an established game plan that you have thought through. I see it as a scummier move than a townier one.

[yuma]

First post:

ugh. Vote: Spiritbears for that hammer! I hate hammers like that. Yes, I know nkirbit had already said he wasn't going to claim. However, you have to state intent and wait for something. I was planning to read nkirbit, and I never got a chance to do that. It was possible that maybe I would find nkirbit to be clearly town, and could maybe have prevented a mislynch. This is why I sometimes freak out when people get to L-1, because things like this are disasterous.

pretty obvious, let's look at spiritbears.

Sidenote: I am in the camp that doesn't find spiritbears scummy for what he did. To me it was very similar to the way he voted at the end of mean girls... pretty abruptly and certainly not at a point when the conversation was over. His vote was more about himself being frustrated with nkirbit and making up his mind... and typically when spiritbears makes up his mind, it is made (he knows this, we know this... so yeah, why not just go ahead and hammer.) I don't like it, but that is the way it is.

But for lio--if he is scum--it is the perfect route to go. And the easiest. And if I am scum, I am also going to go down this route, because hey... why not? It is potentially a pretty easy mislynch.

hmmm, that's a very interesting assessment of spiritbears. That is a good point.

sure, I might go for something like this if I was scum and SB town. but if I'm scum, I want a mislynch. And this clearly is not a mislynch I could get through. I don't want to push a lynch that nobody supports at this point, because it just makes it more likely for myself or my partner to be lynched. No, I would go for a lynch on somebody who already had suspicion on them.

I don't understand this point.

You say that spiritbears isn't a lynch you could get through. Right now. Yes it probably isn't going to happen with the way people have spoken out against it since the beginning of day2.

But I am not talking about now. I am talking about your first few posts of the game. At that point, if you are mafia, you wouldn't have thought that spiritbears would have been a hard lynch to get through. I think mafia would think it a rather easy one, and one that is at least worth trying to push through. You wouldn't know whether the support was there or not until you tried it.

And if you do get support for a spiritbears mislynch you and your partner would be less likely to be lynched, because the focus wouldn't be on the two of you, it would be on spiritbears.

Look, in my scum QT with eevee we talked about this specifically in Mean Girls. We said, if we can keep the topic of conversation away from the two of us we will win. If we can make them talk instead about each other, and keep the focus away from us, we will win, because they will be so busy arguining with themselves they won't pay any attention to us. And this worked. We put the focus on xeiron and on mail-mi aggressively and from the start of days. And I see similar behavior here where you are trying to set the tone for the rest of the day. And the tone you wanted to set was spiritbears as mafia. You. Who says you hold your vote in reserve and doesn't use it early, used it very, very early. Like first post of the game early. You really wanted to establish something, set the mood and tone of the day.

[yuma]

Next:

Another thing I dislike: when town forgets dead conf!townies' reads. So here are nkirbit's final reads:

Reads, scum to town:

Mcmc
Mail-Mi
Robz
Yuma
Lio
SB
Voltaire

I'm forgetting someone, but they're probably in the middle since they don't bring up much thoughts.

He forgets Chairs in this list. anyway, let's keep these in mind.

Again he is directing out thoughts for us. "Hey, let's not forget what the dead townie thought!!! Oh and by the way he thought I was town. Just FYI."

Note here that nkirbit had a town read on spiritbears--because I know someone else will bring it up--and I already know what lio's answer would be... "Well nkirbit at that time didn't know that spiritbears would vote for him, if he did, his scum read on him would have gone up." Fair enough, but really the point is that we are moving in a direction that lio is dictating from the outset.

That was in no way my motive in posting that. I hate it when people forget about dead townies. It's happened to me several times in which I was NKed, especially mean girls, where nobody listened to me about Yuma being scum and he was. man, that one still burns. So I want to do for nkirbit what I would want done for myself once I'm a dead townie - that we take a closer look at the people on top of the list.

actually, as it happens, that's not my answer. nkirbit posted that in twilight, after the hammer. So actually, yes, that does give me even more reservations about SB.

These are valid points. sorry I didn't realize that nkirbit posted this after the hammer. I guess I just very rarely want to use the reads of dead townies. They aren't any better than my reads--in fact they are probably worse because they didn't know my alignment. I think I have only done it once aggressively--way back when, when voltgloss was still around, I sheeped his read right into a major mislynch in the first pirates game.

[yuma]

notes about day1:

 - self-referencing LVS - I've metnioned this before
 - I found his vote and then him saying that he noticed the "VT-slip" but didn't want to say anything about it to be off.
 - he was one of the players that I felt off for joining onto the mail-mi wagon, which I still think was an "easy" wagon. Remember the other player there was nkirbit... who I ultimately voted for after rereading both nkirbit and lio. But just because one player was town, doesn't invalidate that I felt like it would be a good place for mafia to jump onto.
 - lamenting a lack of support on mcmc when he never really pushed it--but used it as a justification for moving to mail-mi... I hadn't noticed it before, but it stands out now.
 - he started into the spiritbears case mid-day1. Again if I am scum and lio, when I see spiritbears hammer, I shout "Yippie! Someone I already have a scum read on did something pretty ridiculous that I think I can spin a scummy! Easy day2 lynch coming up. Mylo here we come!"
- he initially was reading nkiribt a bit scummy, but his ulitmate reason for not voting for him was "his reaction felt genuine." To me this is a classic reason for not voting someone as scum. Don't have to justify it, just say his reaction felt real... it is especially easy if you know someone's alignment, because it was real!

So yeah, I feel good about this vote.

Lio is what I would expect from scum. Trying to manipulate subtly the direction of town, staying mostly out of the limelight. Picking his fights and arguments carefully, setting up mislynches for the next day...

I don't know who lio's partner could be and wouldn't really feel comfortable trying to pinpoint that down right now. Robz is possible, so is chairs. Others I think less likely.

wow, so all those fancy quotes, all from D2, and then just this about D1? you're the one who's always advocating re-reading previous days!

I never really made up my mind on nkirbit. the hammer came while I was away, I was planning to re-read him. I could possibly have been the hammer instead, or maybe I would have staunchly defended him, I am not sure, I never did re-read him. That's an example of an interaction which was lost in the pre-mature ending to the day.

I don't see what the problem is here... I am not going to make a huge, gigant post that no one can read full of unnecessary quotes. I pulled quotes from day2 because they were all in a nice pretty line at the beginning of day2. And I did reread. I reread all of you from day1. These are the things that I found, because my goal was to see if your behavior fit what I thought might look like scum!lio from day1. And to an extent it did. But most of my case is how you came out of the gates with an agenda day2

[mcmcsalot]

I like yumas case on liopoil. However, we do still have a lot of time, and we don't need to quicklynch lio, so i will place a tentative vote: liopoil

Not a fan of this, I would rather you vote. If people quick hammer they do so. I mean I think it's really hurtful to town to announce all their intentions and let scum play around it. Remember scum is looking for places to jump in and look townie.

[Voltaire]

Next:

Another thing I dislike: when town forgets dead conf!townies' reads. So here are nkirbit's final reads:

Reads, scum to town:

Mcmc
Mail-Mi
Robz
Yuma
Lio
SB
Voltaire

I'm forgetting someone, but they're probably in the middle since they don't bring up much thoughts.

He forgets Chairs in this list. anyway, let's keep these in mind.

Again he is directing out thoughts for us. "Hey, let's not forget what the dead townie thought!!! Oh and by the way he thought I was town. Just FYI."

I love nkirbit's reads - he has me as the most town! 

yuma, I find your case on lio lacking to the point of useless. Unless you have more information, it certainly has not convinced me to even find lio scummy, let alone vote him.

Both yuma and Robz are finding people scummy for things they themselves are doing.

Like what?

Yuma accusing lio of being scummy for leading the town (and then clarifying that's not what he meant), and you for offering short, strong posts that tend towards hyperbole (and actually, looking back, you did not actually call people scummy for this). So I should clarify that what I find scummy about you is that you tend towards short, firm posts that seem like they must be overconfident and frequently contain hyperbole, like

Eevee! They are all listening to yuma. Just look. EVERYBODY is sheeping yuma. He's a wonderful guy, I really like him, but there's no way he's right if everyone is just going along with him. If he's not scum himself, certainly the scum are hanging on his every word.

which is either not-ideal town play or scum hoping nobody calls you on it. I have a soft scum-read on you, a soft one on yuma, and either null or town on everyone else. (I am not calling a team)

I like yumas case on liopoil. However, we do still have a lot of time, and we don't need to quicklynch lio, so i will place a tentative vote: liopoil

mail-mi, your play has been very frustrating. It's posts like this that are just sheeping, and that is 90% of your very few posts this game, that make me agree with nkirbit's case on you. Yet it seems just too darn obvious for you to be scum, so under the assumption you're town: please step up your game, town needs your help. Give us some original reads, do some scumhunting. Or else I will have to think about voting you.

More later. I should be able to post much more today.

[Voltaire]

yuma, I find your case on lio lacking to the point of useless. Unless you have more information, it certainly has not convinced me to even find lio scummy, let alone vote him.

I do want to clarify I'm glad that yuma has made this case - regardless of his alignment, I view this as effective scumhunting. It firmed up my town read on lio, so that is fantastic. And that does make it helpful play by yuma for town (me).

[yuma]

yuma, I find your case on lio lacking to the point of useless. Unless you have more information, it certainly has not convinced me to even find lio scummy, let alone vote him.

Ok. That is fair, but remember that I am not trying to convince anyone of anything at this point. Right now I think lio is the best person for me to vote for... hence my vote and if we had to lynch right this second he would be the best person to lynch right this second. But we don't have to lynch right this second. All I am doing is putting what I find to be scummy out there and seeing what other people think. A couple people agree, a couple people disagree. That is to be expected. Like I said the day before either lio's case will grow and develop (not necessarily by people joining it, but by his behavior in response to it and others) or it will die off and I (as well as everyone else) will have to look elsewhere... That is mafia. So don't call it useless. It has a purpose and the purpose is finding scum. It might be looking in the wrong direction, it might not be in the wrong direction, but it isn't useless.

If it really is useless then I give up and will just stop posting. Because that is really useless.

[yuma]

Ha! Ok... I won't stop posting...

[Voltaire]

yuma, I find your case on lio lacking to the point of useless. Unless you have more information, it certainly has not convinced me to even find lio scummy, let alone vote him.

Ok. That is fair, but remember that I am not trying to convince anyone of anything at this point. Right now I think lio is the best person for me to vote for... hence my vote and if we had to lynch right this second he would be the best person to lynch right this second. But we don't have to lynch right this second. All I am doing is putting what I find to be scummy out there and seeing what other people think. A couple people agree, a couple people disagree. That is to be expected. Like I said the day before either lio's case will grow and develop (not necessarily by people joining it, but by his behavior in response to it and others) or it will die off and I (as well as everyone else) will have to look elsewhere... That is mafia. So don't call it useless. It has a purpose and the purpose is finding scum. It might be looking in the wrong direction, it might not be in the wrong direction, but it isn't useless.

If it really is useless then I give up and will just stop posting. Because that is really useless.

See my post above - it was constructive!

PPE: Ok, we understand each other.

[yuma]

See my post above - it was constructive!

PPE: Ok, we understand each other.

can I ask what you didn't like about it?

[Voltaire]

See my post above - it was constructive!

PPE: Ok, we understand each other.

can I ask what you didn't like about it?

Yes!

So, leading the town can be used by both scum and town, so null read (which you yourself later clarified, though I did take your initial case to be that scum leads and that you then backed off that statement).

I find nothing scummy about him posting nkirbit's reads since they came after the hammer.

I find it good town-play to discourage PR speculation after the no-kill, given that we have several town(?) members that I could see speculating about that sort of thing in an unhelpful way.

I view voting sb as town very legitimately being frustrated at sb ending the day too early, and though policy-lynches are amazing cover for scum they're also pro-town in the long run, so null read for me. Certainly not scum read.

And then I find your analysis of his D1 behavior to be weak (as far as making a scum case is concerned) - ie being on the mail-mi wagon I think was scummy at the time, but as we've seen nkirbit was there too. And also I'm warming to scum!mail-mi myself a bit (want to explore this more).

And lio's reason for backing off nkirbit was the same as mine - nkirbit acquitted himself of his wagon quite well. It's not really a logical case, it is a sort of gut-feel sort of thing. So if that's scum!lio, then it's something town can do as well since town!Voltaire did it.

Basically lio has replaced mcmc as my one "confident" town read today. Which isn't that great when you think about it. I'd like to mostly trust more than two people.

[Voltaire]

Here's something that we should be paying more attention to: the D1 final votes!

mail-mi (1): nkirbit
Robz888 (1): chairs
nkirbit (5): mail-mi, Robz888, mcmcsalot, yuma, spiritbears
yuma (1): Voltaire

Not voting: liopoil

[yuma]

Here's something that we should be paying more attention to: the D1 final votes!

mail-mi (1): nkirbit
Robz888 (1): chairs
nkirbit (5): mail-mi, Robz888, mcmcsalot, yuma, spiritbears
yuma (1): Voltaire

Not voting: liopoil

and what does it tell us?

[Voltaire]

Here's something that we should be paying more attention to: the D1 final votes!

mail-mi (1): nkirbit
Robz888 (1): chairs
nkirbit (5): mail-mi, Robz888, mcmcsalot, yuma, spiritbears
yuma (1): Voltaire

Not voting: liopoil

and what does it tell us?

I'm not sure yet! I'm just scum town trying to lead the town.

But I mean the entire point of why it's ok to lynch town is for wagon information. I'm not seeing that many cases based on our final wagon, I'd like people to think about it more.

[Eevee]

I expect to be fully caught up and ready to rumble within the next 7 hours. Sorry for the wait.

[yuma]

some comments on this:

- I don't think I ever said that leading was scummy. Leading itself isn't scummy, it is scummy in my opinion when it is towards a specific goal with a clear objective in mind. Right out of the gates lio had a game plan and I think scum more often than not has a game plan whereas town... not so much because they don't have a QT or buddies to talk things through with and make one.

- stopping PR discussion is null. You can't give out town points for it. Scum will say it, town will say it. I am glad it was said, but I don't give any credit to lio at all for being the first to say it....

- policy votes are rarely ever pro-town. I can't think of any policy vote that turned into a lynch. In the long run? I don't care about the long run... Sorry, but I don't. I want to win this game. I don't know how much longer I will be playing mafia and ultimately this game matters more than the next 10! Because I am in this game, I don't know if I will be in the next one.

- my analysis of day1 wasn't meant to stand alone. I didn't do the reread that way. I just went back and saw if lio's play in day1 matched up with what I thought scum might do. And it did. But most of my stuff that I am suspicious about him is day2 stuff. If I had gone back and was like !!!Wow! lio was really pro-town day1, then that would negate my stuff from day2 a bit. But I didn't. I found him on the slightlier scummy side from day1. combine that with day2 stuff and you have my case.

- two points in one. The fact that nkiribit was town and did the same things as lio doesn't make me see lio as townie. No, the opposite. Because I have had from my own experience seen how scum mimics town in their reads and behavior. So if one player is town for doing somethign and another player is doign something almost exactly the same, I wonder is that player scum? Are they shadowing, mimicing, replicating behavior by town that they know to be town to seem more town? So that he was the same as nkiribit doesn't necessarily make him more townie, nor that he had similar reads to you (who I think is more townie than lio).

One last thing that I forgot to mention when lio used the following quote:

I think it make spiritbears look really scummy because of his flip on nkirbit. Seems like scum who was like "I'm gonna be off-wagon, this'll be awesome!" then, "oh no, this mislynch might not go through without me. I really just want to get to night and mislynch townies, so I'll "change my mind"".

It also makes whoever was the alternative wagon(s) look bad. So that's Yuma, and maybe mail-mi/chairs right?

it isn't exact, but again it is similar to something eevee and ash and I did in mean girls. There we basically said, "do we really think we were completely off day1? Do we really think that all three wagons that we developed were all on town? What are the odds of that!!! Not very likely!!" All in an attempt to frame mail-mi. And it worked. I see this as a similar attitude. "Well nkiribit was wrong... must be because we were right about someone else, cause there is no way we were that totally off day1!"

[yuma]

Here's something that we should be paying more attention to: the D1 final votes!

mail-mi (1): nkirbit
Robz888 (1): chairs
nkirbit (5): mail-mi, Robz888, mcmcsalot, yuma, spiritbears
yuma (1): Voltaire

Not voting: liopoil

and what does it tell us?

I'm not sure yet! I'm just scum town trying to lead the town.

But I mean the entire point of why it's ok to lynch town is for wagon information. I'm not seeing that many cases based on our final wagon, I'd like people to think about it more.

well sure, good old fashioned wagon analysis... I can appreciate that, but your quote wasn't analysis... just the vote count.  So I thought you had done some, but if you haven't yet I would love to hear some.

So generally we think of one on/one off right? It is a bit harder to analyze with out a night kill--although those are always full of WIFOM, but still--not that I am upset about not having a night kill.

I dont' think we want to go into trying to figure out who was the NK target... that just opens up a can of worms I think that is best left closed... so we are left with just the wagon to analyze.

I do find it interesting that robz is calling people out for sheeping me today, when he kinda sheeped me yesterday... Anyone find that compelling?