I agree with you on skipping Moat and Secret Chamber, but given that he buys them, you should expect to receive more Curses than him, and while ending up 1-4 in Curses is of course unlucky, I don't think it's exceptionally so (I'd say you could expect a better outcome ~60% of the time, whereas you make it sound like you expect it >90%) . Besides, focusing on luck is unproductive, especially when there are a lot of things that you could have done better (as there are in almost every game anyone ever plays):
T5: Inn, I'd get a second Mountebank here. The Inn does very little for you at this point, as your only actions so far are 1 Mountebank and 1 Watchtower, and you can't even use its ability to shuffle those back in. Inn gets stronger as your deck expands, get it later, near the end of a big shuffle.
T6: Second Watchtower is ok, though I'd seriously consider getting a second Silver first.
T7: Topdeck the Mountebank with Watchtower.
T8: I really don't like getting a third Watchtower over a second Silver. I mean, it's nice to be able to trash a Curse and Copper, but now you're effectively cursing yourself by not investing in your economy. He has a Gold already, you're very much behind at this point, time to catch up!
T9: A Spy??? That's crazy man
You don't even have a second Silver yet... Spies do very little for you, this is just giving up.
T10: Another Spy?
?? Game over.