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[Twistedarcher]

I think it's odd that you jump from "he's trying to mimic his play" to "BUT, there are some key differences." You're using both sides of the coin against him, when really that's unfair -- if you think he's trying to gain town cred by playing the same way, I don't think it's fair that you then jump on major differences between the two games. I also think you're making him sound much more relatively crazy in this game, when his theories were also pretty dang crazy in Shakespeare, too.

He's crazier in this game, yes. The thing is, this is undoubtedly a crazier game than Shakespeare, given the involvement of items. I believe it makes sense that crazy Xeiron is crazier because it's a crazier game, not because his alignment changed. More items, more things to theorize about, more jumps in logic. So saying "but he's been soooo much crazier this game" would fit with town Xeiron, as well, I think.

[nkirbit]

Another thought about Xeiron!  We're assuming a scum team of 3, so if we mislynch today, we likely lose.  To get a mislynch at this point, only two town members need to be convinced to vote for another town member.

TA, you say you think I'm town and Xeiron town.  Scum obviously knows I'm in favor of a Xeiron lynch, so they would only need to convince one other player of Xeiron being scum, should he be town.  Yet, we didn't see any major movement very early towards a Xeiron lynch from anyone other than myself.

And when I'm saying this case, the general response seems to be "Wow, yeah, a lot of what Nkirbit is saying makes sense", but we haven't gotten any additional votes yet.  Ahoppy is the only one to indicate that he has an intention to vote Xeiron, I believe.  I think scum is much more likely to have resistance on their wagon building, even when they have a great case on them.

I also think Xeiron was on the scummiest position wagon wise.  He was largely responsible for redirecting the wagon towards mail-mi, who we now know is town (I feel very stupid for voting for mail-mi given this.  I don't know why I did this).  I think he's in the scummiest position on wagon, in addition to his extremely anti-town play.  Yet, it's extremely hard to get people to vote in his direction.  I think scum have a harder time having a wagon built on them than town, and this wagon is not getting going quickly.

[Twistedarcher]

I mean, everyone single person except for me has agreed that Xeiron is scummy right now.

[theorel]

I think a lot more 3-person pairings would make sense if Also, to be fair Theorel, I haven't looked at any specific 3 team combinations including you to see if any "make sense". But we should be wary of avoiding combinations that don't make sense -- good scum players are skilled enough to manipulate town into making sure that their specific combination doesn't make sense, whether it's avoiding to vote a certain player to manipulate the scum placements, or something similar. It's very possible that our actual scum team is a combination that doesn't make sense. For this reason, I think we're better off looking at scummy individuals, rather than trying to find the entire scum team in one go.

This. I've been following along on mobile and keep thinking "why are we looking at 3 person scum teams already"? We don't have a scum flip yet, and I think it would be easier to find scum teams knowing one member of the team.

I don't disagree that it's easier to find scum teams knowing one member.  But I think that analyzing combinations of players is a useful tool for scumhunting, as long as the set of players being analyzed is sufficiently small.  In this instance, I'm not looking for the scum-team.  I'm trying to determine if certain events are likely based on the necessary implications of it (i.e. what that says about a scum-team).

Regardless this comes down to scum-hunting theory.  Since I'm the one primarily analyzing combinations of players, I'll elaborate on the theory behind it.  If you're not interested feel free to ignore the rest of this post.  I find theory interesting to talk about, and have a tendency to get sidetracked.

The goal of scumhunting is to differentiate town players from scum players.  So the question is, how do we differentiate them?  Well, in order to differentiate them, we have to know what's different about them.  So, what's different about them?
1. They have a different goal.
2. They have additional information.

Now, consciously they are trying to hide both of those facts from the rest of us.  But just because they're trying to hide it, doesn't mean we can't look for it.
Those two things are kind of broad, so I break them down a bit.
1. Different Goal:
a. They're trying to lynch town.  Here's where we look for flimsy cases, misdirection, votes on town players.
b. They're trying to survive.  (Note: Town doesn't need to survive as badly as scum).  Here's where we look for things which don't help town, but help the player avoid lynches.

2. Different Information (ultimately this is just knowing who's town and who's scum.  But I'm going to talk about specific situations)
a. They know when they're wrong.  Either trying to direct town to a town-lynch, or defend scum.  They know everything they're saying is false, and sometimes that ingenuineness comes through or they try to find ways to cover their poor reasoning.
b. They know when they're right.  Either when bussing or when defending a town player.  They know that they're right, and so sometimes they show excessive conviction on a flimsy basis.
c. They know who their partners are, and what they're doing.  They can avoid or join wagons accordingly, and often will, because the names of their partners will stand out to them.
d. They know they're scum.  This knowledge can make them act differently from normal.

Anyways, there are various things people do to detect each of these cases, and ways that scum tries to cover themselves from such detection.  I would argue that 2c. is the hardest for scum to cover for.  Their interactions can seem forced, or be non-existent.  They avoid each other's wagons or join them ON PURPOSE.  And ultimately, that's what I'm looking at in those analyses.  I'm looking for purpose, and if any purposes make sense.  Now sometimes scum do senseless things, sure.  This isn't the be-all end-all of scumhunting.  But, I'm terrible at telling if people sound genuine.  I am not good at all at reading people.  I am good at analyzing data, and searching for patterns and purpose.  So, that's what I do.

[AHoppy]

Fair enough, that all makes sense to me. I understand why you're doing it, it just feels overwhelming to me

[chairs]

I think a lot more 3-person pairings would make sense if Also, to be fair Theorel, I haven't looked at any specific 3 team combinations including you to see if any "make sense". But we should be wary of avoiding combinations that don't make sense -- good scum players are skilled enough to manipulate town into making sure that their specific combination doesn't make sense, whether it's avoiding to vote a certain player to manipulate the scum placements, or something similar. It's very possible that our actual scum team is a combination that doesn't make sense. For this reason, I think we're better off looking at scummy individuals, rather than trying to find the entire scum team in one go.

This. I've been following along on mobile and keep thinking "why are we looking at 3 person scum teams already"? We don't have a scum flip yet, and I think it would be easier to find scum teams knowing one member of the team.

I hadn't really considered this.  In that case, I think TA's scum-to-chum list is a perfect way to go about it, though I'm a bit miffed that I'm listed as "playing up" my newbieness.

[chairs]

I think a lot more 3-person pairings would make sense if Also, to be fair Theorel, I haven't looked at any specific 3 team combinations including you to see if any "make sense". But we should be wary of avoiding combinations that don't make sense -- good scum players are skilled enough to manipulate town into making sure that their specific combination doesn't make sense, whether it's avoiding to vote a certain player to manipulate the scum placements, or something similar. It's very possible that our actual scum team is a combination that doesn't make sense. For this reason, I think we're better off looking at scummy individuals, rather than trying to find the entire scum team in one go.

This. I've been following along on mobile and keep thinking "why are we looking at 3 person scum teams already"? We don't have a scum flip yet, and I think it would be easier to find scum teams knowing one member of the team.

I don't disagree that it's easier to find scum teams knowing one member.  But I think that analyzing combinations of players is a useful tool for scumhunting, as long as the set of players being analyzed is sufficiently small.  In this instance, I'm not looking for the scum-team.  I'm trying to determine if certain events are likely based on the necessary implications of it (i.e. what that says about a scum-team).

Regardless this comes down to scum-hunting theory.  Since I'm the one primarily analyzing combinations of players, I'll elaborate on the theory behind it.  If you're not interested feel free to ignore the rest of this post.  I find theory interesting to talk about, and have a tendency to get sidetracked.

The goal of scumhunting is to differentiate town players from scum players.  So the question is, how do we differentiate them?  Well, in order to differentiate them, we have to know what's different about them.  So, what's different about them?
1. They have a different goal.
2. They have additional information.

Now, consciously they are trying to hide both of those facts from the rest of us.  But just because they're trying to hide it, doesn't mean we can't look for it.
Those two things are kind of broad, so I break them down a bit.
1. Different Goal:
a. They're trying to lynch town.  Here's where we look for flimsy cases, misdirection, votes on town players.
b. They're trying to survive.  (Note: Town doesn't need to survive as badly as scum).  Here's where we look for things which don't help town, but help the player avoid lynches.

2. Different Information (ultimately this is just knowing who's town and who's scum.  But I'm going to talk about specific situations)
a. They know when they're wrong.  Either trying to direct town to a town-lynch, or defend scum.  They know everything they're saying is false, and sometimes that ingenuineness comes through or they try to find ways to cover their poor reasoning.
b. They know when they're right.  Either when bussing or when defending a town player.  They know that they're right, and so sometimes they show excessive conviction on a flimsy basis.
c. They know who their partners are, and what they're doing.  They can avoid or join wagons accordingly, and often will, because the names of their partners will stand out to them.
d. They know they're scum.  This knowledge can make them act differently from normal.

Anyways, there are various things people do to detect each of these cases, and ways that scum tries to cover themselves from such detection.  I would argue that 2c. is the hardest for scum to cover for.  Their interactions can seem forced, or be non-existent.  They avoid each other's wagons or join them ON PURPOSE.  And ultimately, that's what I'm looking at in those analyses.  I'm looking for purpose, and if any purposes make sense.  Now sometimes scum do senseless things, sure.  This isn't the be-all end-all of scumhunting.  But, I'm terrible at telling if people sound genuine.  I am not good at all at reading people.  I am good at analyzing data, and searching for patterns and purpose.  So, that's what I do.

  Let's take these (very excellent) points and find us some scum!

[Eevee]

Here's my reads list:

As I was reading this, I started noticing how you say something positive about every player but then after the comma you plant a seed about their scumminess by reminding what suspect things they've done. Then I realized you were going from scummiest to towniest and a good portion of the people here actually is town, especially for a townie, so maybe it isn't such big a deal.

I think xeiron copping me N0 still sounds awfully convenient.
Xeiron, do you have any other investigation results? Why did you choose me?

[Twistedarcher]

I think the only person I really did that with was nkirbit? And he's done scummy stuff, but this case against xeiron just reads so towny to me.

Of course I have a lot of scum reads, almost half of you are scum! If I believe xeiron, then that leaves 60% scum among everyone else.

[xeiron]

Here's my reads list:

As I was reading this, I started noticing how you say something positive about every player but then after the comma you plant a seed about their scumminess by reminding what suspect things they've done. Then I realized you were going from scummiest to towniest and a good portion of the people here actually is town, especially for a townie, so maybe it isn't such big a deal.

I think xeiron copping me N0 still sounds awfully convenient.
Xeiron, do you have any other investigation results? Why did you choose me?

I will not claim stuff now outside of a massclaim.
I chose you because I find you hard to read and hard to lynch.
The first part should be obvious, the second means i would chatch one of the most dangerous member on the scumteam should i get positive results, and probably have town knowledge of a player that stays long in the game should i get negative results.

[Eevee]

Okay, that makes sense, but refusing to claim cop results outside of a mass claim sounds an awful lot like extortion.. "unless you do what I want, I won't tell you what I know".

[Twistedarcher]

Also, I'm against the mass claim as well. It would just help scum solve the game and make fake claims easier

No, it will help town solve the game. We are probably at mylo right now, so we should make it or goal to lynch scum tonight with all means necessary. Yes we can get a lucky save from a doctor, but that is nothing to rely on.
I will gladly exchange our doctor for a better chanse of hitting scum today.

And I thing my order of claiming minimizes scum's chance of fake-claiming.

Here's my reads list:

As I was reading this, I started noticing how you say something positive about every player but then after the comma you plant a seed about their scumminess by reminding what suspect things they've done. Then I realized you were going from scummiest to towniest and a good portion of the people here actually is town, especially for a townie, so maybe it isn't such big a deal.

I think xeiron copping me N0 still sounds awfully convenient.
Xeiron, do you have any other investigation results? Why did you choose me?

I will not claim stuff now outside of a massclaim.
I chose you because I find you hard to read and hard to lynch.
The first part should be obvious, the second means i would chatch one of the most dangerous member on the scumteam should i get positive results, and probably have town knowledge of a player that stays long in the game should i get negative results.

All means necessary, or only if everyone else does?

The contradiction here reads like you're trying to get town to claim their items so you can use it to your advantage..

[nkirbit]

So Xeiron came and went and didn't acknowledge my case on him.  What does everyone think about that?

[Twistedarcher]

So Xeiron came and went and didn't acknowledge my case on him.  What does everyone think about that?

Fits with ignoring our requests for explanation for the reads. I think it falls under the "purposely cryptic" category.

[shraeye]

Here's my reads list:

Shraeye - He was off-wagon, and despite his defense, I really feel that scum doesn't want to pile 3 on-wagon, on a town lynch, if they can avoid it. His reaction to Chairs' claim (now I know something that I can't say!) was weird, and he was definitely more background than foreground D1. When I stop being lazy and start a re-read, this will be my first re-read.

Ahoppy - I really do feel that there was scum manipulation in the mail-mi wagon. My top guess for this was EFHW, since she was more forward with her pushing than Ahoppy, but she's flipped town, so I'm more suspicious of Ahoppy now. He was my lynch candidate yesterday, and hasn't really done too much to change that, although I do like some aspects of his case on Chairs.

Chairs - Like I said, some aspects of Ahoppy's case make sense. I think Chairs may be trying to play up his "newbiness" a bit too much. He saw the massive town credit that he mostly got from his paper claim, and could have decided to keep that going with the weak flavor claim that didn't reveal anything. It's playing on people's reactions, and I think that's a more believable explanation, that the claim occurred for town credit, than the claim occurred to incriminate Shraeye.

Theorel - There's a lot of good analysis, but at the same time, he seems really, really jumpy on wagons. He joined a few D1 with little explanation, and has seemed really cautious and analytical with his talk at times, but less so with his votes.

Xeiron - Yes, the play is weird weird weird. Yes, it's anti-town. But I just think he's town. This play is far too risky from a scum perspective, and he had to know he'd take heat for it.

Nkirbit - While I think his case on Xeiron is ultimately wrong, it's also very very logical, and something that I'd expect from a town member. There's a few misrepresentations, and he keeps bringing up the "pen" issue that's not really an issue for me, but his case makes a lot of sense, and has me nodding along every time I read his views. The thing that gives me pause is that he's been pushing Xeiron constantly now, but got off of him quickly enough on D1, and voted on the mail-mi wagon with weakish reasoning, and was also on the Ahoppy wagon I believe?

Eevee - Obviously, he's going to be lower on this list than Xeiron. Given that I think Xeiron is probably town, I think Eevee is probably town, too. And I don't think there's a insignificant chance that Xeiron is scum, and his fellow scum are pushing on him right now with plans to immediately mislynch Eevee tomorrow. So this gives me even more of a town read on Eevee.

The odd thing about this list is that you find every person scummy for some reason or another except xeiron and by extension Eevee.  But even in the paragraph for Eevee, you mention that xeiron could possibly be scum.  So, you're saying that your reads are "everybody is maybe scum, except Eevee."

[Twistedarcher]

Yeah. I don't think that's unusual, for this point of the game. We have a decent percentage of scum in the people left, and so little information to work with, that I wouldn't be shocked by any person flipping scum. Apart from Eevee, I really have no strong town reads, and he's not THAT strong of a town read.

I'm suspicious of all of you!

[shraeye]

I mean, everyone single person except for me has agreed that Xeiron is scummy right now.

I think you're getting ahead of yourself.  My mind is not made up regarding xeiron.  yesterday, i was sure he was town, and was getting frustrated at nkirbit for pushing xeiron's lynch so hard while ignoring the AHoppy case I was spearheading, because I think that is the best one I've seen yet.

Today, I'm beginning to see more suspicious things; some are points made by nkirbit, and one of which I pointed out (the post you said "dingdingding" about).   But xeiron's far from a scum read for me.

AHoppy is still my scummiest read, and I find it suspicious that it seems like nobody wants to talk aobut AHoppy being the viable wagon that we veered away from before that mail-mi debacle.

[shraeye]

I've been following along on mobile and keep thinking "why are we looking at 3 person scum teams already"? We don't have a scum flip yet, and I think it would be easier to find scum teams knowing one member of the team.

This sounds like you're worried that your name has popped up too often.

[Twistedarcher]

I still think that Ahoppy's scummy. I agreed with your and Raerae's case yesterday (although it wasn't the strongest case), and I really think that people hopping on the mail-mi wagon rather than the Ahoppy wagon was suspicious. After Xeiron, there were not-great cases on both players, but to me, one of those cases (the one on Ahoppy) was much better than the other. Yet most of the people who voted with little reason (Theorel, Chairs are the biggest names to come to mind) hopped on the mail-mi wagon and not the Ahoppy wagon.

[shraeye]

What are you trying to say here?  Why does the last sentence begin with 'yet'?  Both the part before and after that word seem to indicate the same thing.

[nkirbit]

Ahoppy would be my second choice behind Xeiron.  If we can't get Xeiron going, I would vote there.

[Twistedarcher]

One of the cases was a better case to me (Ahoppy vs. Mail-mi). Yet others disagreed and jumped on mail-mi instead of Ahoppy.

I'm trying to say that while the case wasn't slam dunk, I agreed with it mostly, and thought it had MUCH more merit than the case on mail-mi. The fact that several of the 'jumpier' voters, such as Chairs and Theorel, jumped on Mail-mi instead of Ahoppy, makes me suspicious that there was redirecting from Ahoppy to mail-mi. Now I doubt both of them would do that, since it would be really obvious for Ahoppy to be scum and BOTH of his partners jump on mail-mi late like that. But it makes me really suspicious of Ahoppy, and of the people who chose to lynch mail-mi rather than Ahoppy when there were two cases on the weaker side floating around (Chairs and Theorel, and Nkirbit also falls into this group. Xeiron does as well, but I think he's town).

If Ahoppy turns up scum, I think we'd find both his partners on-wagon for the mail-mi lynch. That would mean three scum on-wagon. Now, Chairs has said before that he'd guess scum might have manipulated to have all three scum on wagon, so this would actually probably make him less likely to be a possible Ahoppy partner, since I doubt scum would proclaim that if all three scum were actually on wagon. So I'd look to Theorel and Nkirbit as likely possible Ahoppy partners. Probably Theorel, who I believe was never voting Ahoppy.

[Twistedarcher]

Going off of that Chairs thought, I think that Chairs, if scum, would say the opposite of what the scum distribution was. So if he's saying 3 scum on wagon, and turns up scum, I'd assume 2 scum on 1 scum off, so I'd look immediately at Shraeye.

[AHoppy]

AHoppy is still my scummiest read, and I find it suspicious that it seems like nobody wants to talk aobut AHoppy being the viable wagon that we veered away from before that mail-mi debacle.

personally, I find this really suspicious too.  I thought I would be getting a lot of flak from everyone since I was the second most wanted lynch yesterday.  So far, people have just been saying they still find me scummy but nobody seems to want to lynch me.

Secondly: I would like to point out that chairs is doing the same thing that the case on me is built on.  He just said "Guys let's do some scumhunting" and yet has done nothing to help that along since that post. 

[chairs]

AHoppy is still my scummiest read, and I find it suspicious that it seems like nobody wants to talk aobut AHoppy being the viable wagon that we veered away from before that mail-mi debacle.

personally, I find this really suspicious too.  I thought I would be getting a lot of flak from everyone since I was the second most wanted lynch yesterday.  So far, people have just been saying they still find me scummy but nobody seems to want to lynch me.

Secondly: I would like to point out that chairs is doing the same thing that the case on me is built on.  He just said "Guys let's do some scumhunting" and yet has done nothing to help that along since that post.

Sorry, I picked up the new expansion for Civ 5 and got distracted, and I also have a new shift at work  (literally as of today) that's making me a bit tired.

So are we in mylo or not? Because if we're not, we could lynch (based on the conversations here) shraeye or yourself, and get some effective data on who might be scum based on the flip.  Obviously if we're in a position where we need to be sure that's going to be a different situation.

I wonder if you're trying to push the chairs wagon because I acted rashly earlier in the game and it's an easy argument to make.  Granted, if you are town, then we have a town v town situation, and if we're in mylo, that's going to not go well for us either way

[end stream of consciousness]

You specifically call out my lack of scumhunting.  I will say this (I thought I already did, but I'll repeat it) - me posting does little/null for me in terms of effective scumhunting.  The interactions the rest of you are having, even when you're discussing my case or an unrelated case, are what does it for me.  I also don't do terribly well at scum-to-chum or analysis posts, so my posts end up being these "random blathering" things (which I've already been called out on as 'look he has nothing to say').  It's not that I have nothing to say, but more that I function at a very instinctual level and it's hard to turn "This guy makes my skin crawl" into a logic-based case.