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[chairs]

TA:

So, if we then add in nkirbit's argument in favor of Xeiron being scum, what do you think of the odds of a theorel/Ahoppy/Xeiron case?

Because nkirbit makes a pretty good argument, here.  And I agree that it's possible that the tesla/edison rivalry doesn't necessarily implicate shraeye as scum - since we haven't hit any mafia yet, it's hard to guess at their overall theme.

unvote

[shraeye]

Then we get to his "reads".  He says that he has it narrowed down to four scum:  TA, EFHW, Shraeye, Mail-Mi.  When asked to explain his reads, he replied with "no".  What?  You know who has an incentive to explain their reads?  Town!  So we don't mislynch!  You know who has an incentive to not explain their reads?  Someone who doesn't actually have them!

I really feel that Xeiron tried to get out of initial pressure by mimicking his play in Shakespeare, and once he realized that no one (other than me) found him that scummy for it, continued to turn up the ridiculousness.  His play got more and more anti-town as the day went on.  Without explanation, he said that there he had narrowed the scum team down to four possible players (two of whom have flipped town, btw!).  He made ZERO attempts to working towards a correct lynch.  His only contribution in terms of scumhunting was directing us towards mail-mi, who we now know is town.

Yes, xeiron's scumreads included mail-mi and EFHW, who both were town.  But what seems even stranger to me is that despite being wrong about those two, he continues to think that he's spot-on with the other two reads. 

I'm automatically suspicious of Shraeye simply due to bandwagon analysis. Assuming Shraeye is town means that all 3 scum were on the wagon, which is something I don't think they'd do D1.

I think we will find two scum off wagon.

When new info comes to light, I feel like I need to synthesize it, and reassess my previous ideas.  Xeiron's just running full speed ahead.

[Twistedarcher]

Nkirbit,

I get where you're coming from. Everytime you talk about Xeiron, it makes a lot of sense. Yes, his play has been anti-town, absolutely, without a doubt, and he's making assumptions that he shouldn't make. Not explaining his reads is scummy, and I will always have him at or near the top of my scum reads until he explains them.

That being said...

My head is telling me over and over that he's scum fooling me, and it's SO obvious, but I really have a gut feeling he's town, and this is just how he plays. I feel like this argument against Xeiron is similar to the mail-mi argument, in a lot of ways -- it's a player who has a playstyle that's scummy and different relative to the norm of F.DS. Mail-mi's scummy playstyle is the main reason he got lynched, and I don't think lynching Xeiron for having a scummy playstyle is a good idea.

Two points in your case that I have disagreements with:

1) Your contention that Xeiron's claim came under pressure here, but not in Shakespeare, is just not true. I remember, it was actually you who called Xeiron out for the same thing in Shakespeare that you're calling him out for here. The contention that the claim here was different is not true, I think.

2) The magnitude of the pen issue. From Xeiron's point of view, not having a writing power (assuming but I think this is obviously true), asking for a pen + paper to write, when you're unaware of the telephone existing, is a pretty natural thing. If Xeiron's plan, no matter how misguided, required writing, you'd want to search for a writing instrument. Knowing paper exists in the game, assuming Pen + Paper = Writing apparatus is a pretty natural jump.

I think Xeiron was being purposely cryptic with the "might or might not" phrasing. (And really, Xeiron, I think you should stop being purposely cryptic, especially if you're being town. It doesn't help us find scum, and if you're town, that's what you want us to do!) But I don't read it as him asserting that pen is absolutely in the game, and I don't know why it not existing would make Xeiron scummy. Sure, it would make it so that Xeiron made another assumption that turned out to be untrue, but that doesn't make him scummy!

If Xeiron's town, he wasn't the attempting NK. Now, it's simply possible that scum were afraid he was bulletproof or could block a kill or whatever, as he claimed, or that they didn't want Eevee to be possibly confirmed as an IC. Or, it's possible he was left alive for WIFOM reasons, and as a viable lynch candidate, and that scum were planning on coming after him D2.
In that case, if Xeiron's town, I'd expect him to be pushed on by scum today.

Of course, it's possible Xeiron is simply alive because he's scum. But my gut tells me he's town. Nkirbit's case makes a lot of sense, but I disagree with the central tenet. I really do believe that this is simply how Xeiron plays, unrelated to alignment, and mislynching him based on playstyle would be a mistake, especially given that's exactly what we did with mail-mi.

All that being said, Xeiron, if you could pleaseeeeeee stop being so cryptic and actually help town with what the rest of us are trying to do instead of what you're trying to do, that would be great. I know you don't trust me, but it's really in town's benefit if you play more openly and less cryptically, both in terms of scumhunting, and in terms of us getting a town read on you if you really are town.

[Twistedarcher]

TA:

So, if we then add in nkirbit's argument in favor of Xeiron being scum, what do you think of the odds of a theorel/Ahoppy/Xeiron case?

Because nkirbit makes a pretty good argument, here.  And I agree that it's possible that the tesla/edison rivalry doesn't necessarily implicate shraeye as scum - since we haven't hit any mafia yet, it's hard to guess at their overall theme.

unvote

Well, my most recent post should make my thoughts on that clear. But I don't think that's the team! Although the first two wouldn't surprise me.

I find it fishy that you're continually naming teams, though. It's as if you're giving people three targets to choose from that aren't you!

Do you think all 3 scum were on wagon for mail-mi?

[Twistedarcher]

Then we get to his "reads".  He says that he has it narrowed down to four scum:  TA, EFHW, Shraeye, Mail-Mi.  When asked to explain his reads, he replied with "no".  What?  You know who has an incentive to explain their reads?  Town!  So we don't mislynch!  You know who has an incentive to not explain their reads?  Someone who doesn't actually have them!

I really feel that Xeiron tried to get out of initial pressure by mimicking his play in Shakespeare, and once he realized that no one (other than me) found him that scummy for it, continued to turn up the ridiculousness.  His play got more and more anti-town as the day went on.  Without explanation, he said that there he had narrowed the scum team down to four possible players (two of whom have flipped town, btw!).  He made ZERO attempts to working towards a correct lynch.  His only contribution in terms of scumhunting was directing us towards mail-mi, who we now know is town.

Yes, xeiron's scumreads included mail-mi and EFHW, who both were town.  But what seems even stranger to me is that despite being wrong about those two, he continues to think that he's spot-on with the other two reads. 

I'm automatically suspicious of Shraeye simply due to bandwagon analysis. Assuming Shraeye is town means that all 3 scum were on the wagon, which is something I don't think they'd do D1.

I think we will find two scum off wagon.

When new info comes to light, I feel like I need to synthesize it, and reassess my previous ideas.  Xeiron's just running full speed ahead.

If Xeiron's town, he wasn't the attempting NK. Now, it's simply possible that scum were afraid he was bulletproof or could block a kill or whatever, as he claimed, or that they didn't want Eevee to be possibly confirmed as an IC. Or, it's possible he was left alive for WIFOM reasons, and as a viable lynch candidate, and that scum were planning on coming after him D2. In that case, if Xeiron's town, I'd expect him to be pushed on by scum today.

Ding ding ding we have a winner!

[nkirbit]

Xeiron had one vote on him when he claimed having set up info in Shakespeare.  He had four votes, and momentum, when he claimed here.  I don't understand how my claim that Xeiron was under pressure here but wasn't in Shakespeare is "just not true"... can you elaborate?  Because it seems to me to be very true.

Go reread Xeiron's posts day one of Shakespeare, and re-read him here.  They have a very, very different feel to them.

In Shakespeare, we had posts such as: "The reason I am voting for you is mostly setup speculation. I find it highly likely that at least one of you, TwistedArcher and eevee are scum. I have a town-read on eevee, so I will not vote for him. I would still lynch Twisted if anyone would support me. If not, it has to be you.
I will not elaborate on this topic before a massclaim."

Here, Xeiron is making poor jumps of logic.  But he's explaining what he's doing, as much as he can without claiming.  And even after his claim, we see scumhunting from him.  He lists pros and cons for lynching Sudgy, asks TA questions, and considers the other fake claims.  Obviously I have the benefit of knowing he was town during that game, but at no point would I describe any of his actions "anti-town", where he is screaming with anti-town in this game.

I don't think this is similar to the mail-mi case.  That was a bad lynch, and you're right in that a lot of our case was bad due to the fact that mail-mi is somewhat naturally scummy.  But I'm not advocating a Xeiron lynch because he's naturally scummy.  I'm advocating it because he's scummy here, in this game!

Seriously, if you have the interest, re-read Xeiron day1 in this game and day1 in Shakespeare... there's not many posts either way.  But the tones are drastically different, in my opinion, which is why I'm not buying the "naturally scummy" defense. 

[nkirbit]

Xeiron got up to four votes, and immediately says "Don't lynch me guys!  If you don't lynch me, I have this awesome power that can almost assuredly win the game for us!" and when questioned about the timing of the claim, says, "I just didn't think about it until then!"  That seems convenient, doesn't it?

[theorel]

Okay, so I reread xeiron Day1 in shakespeare.  I can see where nkirbit is coming from, xeiron seemed much more forthcoming with his reads in shakespeare, and definitely offered up his setup speculation stuff with minimal pressure.  There he offered it up outright because of the pressure, here he had 4 votes and momentum, and then just ignored it and offered up the speculative plan.  I think, if anything, that's a major difference between the two, here he's never acknowledged that anyone was interested in lynching him.

So earlier I analyzed xeiron as part of a 3-person team all on the mail-mi lynch, and I think that it's unlikely.  I can see a xeiron-eevee-shraeye or xeiron-eevee-twistedarcher team.  I don't think it necessarily has to be one of those, but it sufficiently explains why xeiron went somewhere other than AHoppy after saving partner-eevee.  (If we ignore the possibility of a scum-xeiron saving town Eevee from certain mislynch).

Of course, given shraeye or twistedarcher as scum, there are a lot of pairs available on-wagon, largely depending on who might be bussing.  Let's see:
What could we say about pairings on-wagon given that shraeye OR twistedarcher is scum?
Eevee+anybody other than xeiron is impossible (excepting godfather shennanigans).
xeiron+anybody other than Eevee seems very unlikely to me (others disagree somewhat, but I'm going to discount those possibilities for the moment).
AHoppy+chairs: this would imply a strong bus by AHoppy right now, it feels somewhat unnecessary...(although I did suggest a possibility for an AHoppy, nkirbit, chairs team, and he could be just distancing.)

I haven't looked back to see, but I don't see anything disallowing those other pairs.  That would leave (from my perspective):
xeiron-eevee
nkirbit-chairs
AHoppy-nkirbit

Now, those aren't the only POSSIBLE pairings, but I do think those are the likeliest pairings.  Given that, actually, an on-wagon lynch doesn't seem quite as terrible as it did.
I would rather lynch nkirbit or xeiron if we lynch on-wagon, as it seems exceedingly likely that one of them is scum.  Of those two, I would far rather lynch xeiron.
BUT
I think the off-wagon lynch is probably better still.  I feel more confident in the assumptions made to remove the full scum-team from being on-wagon than the assumptions made to eliminate possible pairs on-wagon.

So far the only cases being built are on-wagon.  Do people think all 3 scum are on-wagon, or are you just confident enough that your chosen target is scum that you'd rather ignore the other possibilities?

[theorel]

Also, I'd like to hear from Eevee...hey Eevee, where are you?

[shraeye]

So earlier I analyzed xeiron as part of a 3-person team all on the mail-mi lynch, and I think that it's unlikely.  I can see a xeiron-eevee-shraeye or xeiron-eevee-twistedarcher team.  I don't think it necessarily has to be one of those, but it sufficiently explains why xeiron went somewhere other than AHoppy after saving partner-eevee.  (If we ignore the possibility of a scum-xeiron saving town Eevee from certain mislynch).

I don't understand why those teams would sufficiently explan why xeiron didn't go to AHoppy.

[theorel]

Well, the central concept here is that (scum)xeiron saved (scum)Eevee, and decided to push an alternate lynch. (just to make sure we're starting from the same set of assumptions).
For some reason he avoided the AHoppy lynch.  Why?
1. Ahoppy is a scum-buddy.  This is possible, although I think he'd have been better off hammering Eevee in that instance.  The town-cred he would gain, and the town-cred AHoppy would gain would be great.  There's also the idea that maybe giving town-cred to alternate lynches day1 when scum is lynched is actually valid, which makes the xeiron-eevee-Ahoppy combo unlikely.

2. A scumbuddy was already pushing that lynch.  I was taking the group possible for this to be shraeye + twistedarcher, due to the final wagons, since off-wagon = on AHoppy for what we have alive.  However, I hadn't looked back, and doing so changes things.

Actually looking back, AHoppy was at 5 before xeiron started the mail-mi wagon (I didn't really realize this before).  Those 5 included nkirbit and chairs.  So, my previously analysis was faulty.  Actually xeiron-eevee-nkirbit/chairs can make sense for an all-3 on-wagon situation.  If xeiron was trying to avoid clumping onto the wagon together with scum-mates, but his scum-mate followed him instead of staying away, that could easily have happened.

So, that reduces my confidence in the 1 scum must be off-wagon situation.  Xeiron could easily have been trying to avoid being on a town-lynch that he found likely to go through.  Hmm...I'll need to reconsider things then.

[theorel]

To clarify: I think that scum wanting not to join their scum-mates on a town-wagon is sufficient explanation for a scum-xeiron avoiding the AHoppy wagon.  So, shraeye/twistedarcher as scum is still sufficient.  But nkirbit/chairs as scum is also sufficient.  I'm not analyzing those scum-teams from other perspectives.

In particular, an nkirbit-eevee-xeiron team seems pretty unlikely given the way nkirbit has pushed for a xeiron lynch.

[AHoppy]

For the record, I like the case on xerion. I feel like he is probably the most likely to flip scum so I'm willing to vote/lynch him, but I really would like some kind of defense from him first. And "just trust me, I got this" ain't gonna cut it x.

[Eevee]

I think xeiron's weird behavior is adding up, but I don't see why on earth he would save me like that, if he was scum. Otoh 1 shot copping me during the day (?? when did this happen??) sounds weird too, and it could all be for town cred. Robz chose me as his fake investigation target in back to basics, maybe I'm the kind of person who defends people who defend him.

I think we can start eliminating teams, others have already noted some, I'd like to add chairs-shraeye to the list of unlikely scum partners as it seems like unlikely chairs would bring up his investigation result for no reason.

[chairs]

TA:

So, if we then add in nkirbit's argument in favor of Xeiron being scum, what do you think of the odds of a theorel/Ahoppy/Xeiron case?

Because nkirbit makes a pretty good argument, here.  And I agree that it's possible that the tesla/edison rivalry doesn't necessarily implicate shraeye as scum - since we haven't hit any mafia yet, it's hard to guess at their overall theme.

unvote

Well, my most recent post should make my thoughts on that clear. But I don't think that's the team! Although the first two wouldn't surprise me.

I find it fishy that you're continually naming teams, though. It's as if you're giving people three targets to choose from that aren't you!

Do you think all 3 scum were on wagon for mail-mi?

1) I agree, your recent post made that clear as day.

2) As far as naming teams, I'm getting a lot of benefit from understanding your opinion on why each team would or would not work.  Perhaps not so useful for this game, but long-term I'm learning quite a bit about the current f.ds meta from the responses and it's helping me work towards better opinions.  I don't have any major gut-check in this game saying "this guy is definitely scum" and that's what I rely on, so this is basically how I scumhunt - by throwing something out there and reading the reflections on my statement from others, until somebody says something that clicks in my head.

3) I think that because f.ds meta currently says you should try 1 on, 2 off or 2 on, 1 off, that it's more likely than not that a very well-played scum team was either all-on or all-off.  We've done quite a bit of team theory today over the idea that scum wasn't all on any given wagon, so if I were scum I'd be whole hog on the wagons up until today.

[Twistedarcher]

Xeiron had one vote on him when he claimed having set up info in Shakespeare.  He had four votes, and momentum, when he claimed here.  I don't understand how my claim that Xeiron was under pressure here but wasn't in Shakespeare is "just not true"... can you elaborate?  Because it seems to me to be very true.

Go reread Xeiron's posts day one of Shakespeare, and re-read him here.  They have a very, very different feel to them.

In Shakespeare, we had posts such as: "The reason I am voting for you is mostly setup speculation. I find it highly likely that at least one of you, TwistedArcher and eevee are scum. I have a town-read on eevee, so I will not vote for him. I would still lynch Twisted if anyone would support me. If not, it has to be you.
I will not elaborate on this topic before a massclaim."

Here, Xeiron is making poor jumps of logic.  But he's explaining what he's doing, as much as he can without claiming.  And even after his claim, we see scumhunting from him.  He lists pros and cons for lynching Sudgy, asks TA questions, and considers the other fake claims.  Obviously I have the benefit of knowing he was town during that game, but at no point would I describe any of his actions "anti-town", where he is screaming with anti-town in this game.

I don't think this is similar to the mail-mi case.  That was a bad lynch, and you're right in that a lot of our case was bad due to the fact that mail-mi is somewhat naturally scummy.  But I'm not advocating a Xeiron lynch because he's naturally scummy.  I'm advocating it because he's scummy here, in this game!

Seriously, if you have the interest, re-read Xeiron day1 in this game and day1 in Shakespeare... there's not many posts either way.  But the tones are drastically different, in my opinion, which is why I'm not buying the "naturally scummy" defense.

Hm. You're right. I remembered a post by you saying "Why did you wait to claim this now??", but I guess that was before Xeiron started to get pressure, but after the TA wagon and during the Sudgy wagon. You're also correct on the anti-townness of Xeiron in this game relative to that one.

Scum only need one more mislynch to win this game, regardless of whether it takes place today or tomorrow, right?

If that's true, scum bussing the crap out of Xeiron, and then turning on town!Eevee would make a lot of sense as a viable move. So if we lynch Xeiron today and he flips scum, we should be really wary of voting Eevee the next day, as it could have been a setup.

Without bussing, assuming 3 scum we'd need all five town to lynch a scum member. So it's pretty likely that if scum flips, there was bussing involved.

[Twistedarcher]

I think xeiron's weird behavior is adding up, but I don't see why on earth he would save me like that, if he was scum. Otoh 1 shot copping me during the day (?? when did this happen??) sounds weird too, and it could all be for town cred. Robz chose me as his fake investigation target in back to basics, maybe I'm the kind of person who defends people who defend him.

I think we can start eliminating teams, others have already noted some, I'd like to add chairs-shraeye to the list of unlikely scum partners as it seems like unlikely chairs would bring up his investigation result for no reason.

Pretty sure he copped you N0, not D1.

[Twistedarcher]

TA:

So, if we then add in nkirbit's argument in favor of Xeiron being scum, what do you think of the odds of a theorel/Ahoppy/Xeiron case?

Because nkirbit makes a pretty good argument, here.  And I agree that it's possible that the tesla/edison rivalry doesn't necessarily implicate shraeye as scum - since we haven't hit any mafia yet, it's hard to guess at their overall theme.

unvote

Well, my most recent post should make my thoughts on that clear. But I don't think that's the team! Although the first two wouldn't surprise me.

I find it fishy that you're continually naming teams, though. It's as if you're giving people three targets to choose from that aren't you!

Do you think all 3 scum were on wagon for mail-mi?

1) I agree, your recent post made that clear as day.

2) As far as naming teams, I'm getting a lot of benefit from understanding your opinion on why each team would or would not work.  Perhaps not so useful for this game, but long-term I'm learning quite a bit about the current f.ds meta from the responses and it's helping me work towards better opinions.  I don't have any major gut-check in this game saying "this guy is definitely scum" and that's what I rely on, so this is basically how I scumhunt - by throwing something out there and reading the reflections on my statement from others, until somebody says something that clicks in my head.

3) I think that because f.ds meta currently says you should try 1 on, 2 off or 2 on, 1 off, that it's more likely than not that a very well-played scum team was either all-on or all-off.  We've done quite a bit of team theory today over the idea that scum wasn't all on any given wagon, so if I were scum I'd be whole hog on the wagons up until today.

Fair enough

Well, we know that a 3-man scum team wasn't all off, so that would leave all on. Personally I know that we have at least 2 scum on, and possibly 3, depending on SHraeye's alignment. I think the fact that we have at least 2 on is also supported by the fact that the scum kill was off-wagon, not on-wagon (they didn't want to narrow down the pool of on-wagon people to be chosen as lynch targets). This may be irrelevant and Raerae was killed because she was really towny, but I think it's worth noting.

[Twistedarcher]

Well, the central concept here is that (scum)xeiron saved (scum)Eevee, and decided to push an alternate lynch. (just to make sure we're starting from the same set of assumptions).
For some reason he avoided the AHoppy lynch.  Why?
1. Ahoppy is a scum-buddy.  This is possible, although I think he'd have been better off hammering Eevee in that instance.  The town-cred he would gain, and the town-cred AHoppy would gain would be great.  There's also the idea that maybe giving town-cred to alternate lynches day1 when scum is lynched is actually valid, which makes the xeiron-eevee-Ahoppy combo unlikely.

2. A scumbuddy was already pushing that lynch.  I was taking the group possible for this to be shraeye + twistedarcher, due to the final wagons, since off-wagon = on AHoppy for what we have alive.  However, I hadn't looked back, and doing so changes things.

Actually looking back, AHoppy was at 5 before xeiron started the mail-mi wagon (I didn't really realize this before).  Those 5 included nkirbit and chairs.  So, my previously analysis was faulty.  Actually xeiron-eevee-nkirbit/chairs can make sense for an all-3 on-wagon situation.  If xeiron was trying to avoid clumping onto the wagon together with scum-mates, but his scum-mate followed him instead of staying away, that could easily have happened.

So, that reduces my confidence in the 1 scum must be off-wagon situation.  Xeiron could easily have been trying to avoid being on a town-lynch that he found likely to go through.  Hmm...I'll need to reconsider things then.

Well, you didn't have any major interactions D1, so the 3 scum on-wagon theory becomes a lot more viable if you're one of the 3, I think! You could stick yourself in with any of the pairings and it would make sense.

[chairs]

TA:

So, if we then add in nkirbit's argument in favor of Xeiron being scum, what do you think of the odds of a theorel/Ahoppy/Xeiron case?

Because nkirbit makes a pretty good argument, here.  And I agree that it's possible that the tesla/edison rivalry doesn't necessarily implicate shraeye as scum - since we haven't hit any mafia yet, it's hard to guess at their overall theme.

unvote

Well, my most recent post should make my thoughts on that clear. But I don't think that's the team! Although the first two wouldn't surprise me.

I find it fishy that you're continually naming teams, though. It's as if you're giving people three targets to choose from that aren't you!

Do you think all 3 scum were on wagon for mail-mi?

1) I agree, your recent post made that clear as day.

2) As far as naming teams, I'm getting a lot of benefit from understanding your opinion on why each team would or would not work.  Perhaps not so useful for this game, but long-term I'm learning quite a bit about the current f.ds meta from the responses and it's helping me work towards better opinions.  I don't have any major gut-check in this game saying "this guy is definitely scum" and that's what I rely on, so this is basically how I scumhunt - by throwing something out there and reading the reflections on my statement from others, until somebody says something that clicks in my head.

3) I think that because f.ds meta currently says you should try 1 on, 2 off or 2 on, 1 off, that it's more likely than not that a very well-played scum team was either all-on or all-off.  We've done quite a bit of team theory today over the idea that scum wasn't all on any given wagon, so if I were scum I'd be whole hog on the wagons up until today.

Fair enough

Well, we know that a 3-man scum team wasn't all off, so that would leave all on. Personally I know that we have at least 2 scum on, and possibly 3, depending on SHraeye's alignment. I think the fact that we have at least 2 on is also supported by the fact that the scum kill was off-wagon, not on-wagon (they didn't want to narrow down the pool of on-wagon people to be chosen as lynch targets). This may be irrelevant and Raerae was killed because she was really towny, but I think it's worth noting.

Logical.

I know the case is flimsy, but I still think Shraeye is likely scum (particularly given the "Huh, Tesla and Edison were rivals? That explains this thing that I can't talk about but I'm totally not scum" reaction).  I'm just not sold enough on it to keep my vote there, if we can make a stronger case elsewhere.

[theorel]

Well, the central concept here is that (scum)xeiron saved (scum)Eevee, and decided to push an alternate lynch. (just to make sure we're starting from the same set of assumptions).
For some reason he avoided the AHoppy lynch.  Why?
1. Ahoppy is a scum-buddy.  This is possible, although I think he'd have been better off hammering Eevee in that instance.  The town-cred he would gain, and the town-cred AHoppy would gain would be great.  There's also the idea that maybe giving town-cred to alternate lynches day1 when scum is lynched is actually valid, which makes the xeiron-eevee-Ahoppy combo unlikely.

2. A scumbuddy was already pushing that lynch.  I was taking the group possible for this to be shraeye + twistedarcher, due to the final wagons, since off-wagon = on AHoppy for what we have alive.  However, I hadn't looked back, and doing so changes things.

Actually looking back, AHoppy was at 5 before xeiron started the mail-mi wagon (I didn't really realize this before).  Those 5 included nkirbit and chairs.  So, my previously analysis was faulty.  Actually xeiron-eevee-nkirbit/chairs can make sense for an all-3 on-wagon situation.  If xeiron was trying to avoid clumping onto the wagon together with scum-mates, but his scum-mate followed him instead of staying away, that could easily have happened.

So, that reduces my confidence in the 1 scum must be off-wagon situation.  Xeiron could easily have been trying to avoid being on a town-lynch that he found likely to go through.  Hmm...I'll need to reconsider things then.

Well, you didn't have any major interactions D1, so the 3 scum on-wagon theory becomes a lot more viable if you're one of the 3, I think! You could stick yourself in with any of the pairings and it would make sense.

I disagree that I could be stuck in with any pairing.  I do not think that a xeiron-Eevee-Theorel scumteam makes sense, even from an outside perspective (in particular due to the lack of any of us on the AHoppy wagon, but also due to my pushing for xeiron-eevee to share alignments).

But regardless, for whichever of you and shraeye is town (assuming one is), certainly you'll find the likelihood of 3 on-wagon different than I find it, because you have no information about any alignments on-wagon.  And for whichever of you is scum, you already know I'm right

[Twistedarcher]

I think a lot more 3-person pairings would make sense if Xeiron is scum but Eevee isn't.

Why are we all accepting that Xeiron could be crazy crazy scum, but then saying that it wouldn't make sense for him to claim a town investigation on Eevee? If he's playing crazy scum, that would fit right in with everything else!

Also, to be fair Theorel, I haven't looked at any specific 3 team combinations including you to see if any "make sense". But we should be wary of avoiding combinations that don't make sense -- good scum players are skilled enough to manipulate town into making sure that their specific combination doesn't make sense, whether it's avoiding to vote a certain player to manipulate the scum placements, or something similar. It's very possible that our actual scum team is a combination that doesn't make sense. For this reason, I think we're better off looking at scummy individuals, rather than trying to find the entire scum team in one go.

[AHoppy]

I think a lot more 3-person pairings would make sense if Also, to be fair Theorel, I haven't looked at any specific 3 team combinations including you to see if any "make sense". But we should be wary of avoiding combinations that don't make sense -- good scum players are skilled enough to manipulate town into making sure that their specific combination doesn't make sense, whether it's avoiding to vote a certain player to manipulate the scum placements, or something similar. It's very possible that our actual scum team is a combination that doesn't make sense. For this reason, I think we're better off looking at scummy individuals, rather than trying to find the entire scum team in one go.

This. I've been following along on mobile and keep thinking "why are we looking at 3 person scum teams already"? We don't have a scum flip yet, and I think it would be easier to find scum teams knowing one member of the team.

[Twistedarcher]

Here's my reads list:

Shraeye - He was off-wagon, and despite his defense, I really feel that scum doesn't want to pile 3 on-wagon, on a town lynch, if they can avoid it. His reaction to Chairs' claim (now I know something that I can't say!) was weird, and he was definitely more background than foreground D1. When I stop being lazy and start a re-read, this will be my first re-read.

Ahoppy - I really do feel that there was scum manipulation in the mail-mi wagon. My top guess for this was EFHW, since she was more forward with her pushing than Ahoppy, but she's flipped town, so I'm more suspicious of Ahoppy now. He was my lynch candidate yesterday, and hasn't really done too much to change that, although I do like some aspects of his case on Chairs.

Chairs - Like I said, some aspects of Ahoppy's case make sense. I think Chairs may be trying to play up his "newbiness" a bit too much. He saw the massive town credit that he mostly got from his paper claim, and could have decided to keep that going with the weak flavor claim that didn't reveal anything. It's playing on people's reactions, and I think that's a more believable explanation, that the claim occurred for town credit, than the claim occurred to incriminate Shraeye.

Theorel - There's a lot of good analysis, but at the same time, he seems really, really jumpy on wagons. He joined a few D1 with little explanation, and has seemed really cautious and analytical with his talk at times, but less so with his votes.

Xeiron - Yes, the play is weird weird weird. Yes, it's anti-town. But I just think he's town. This play is far too risky from a scum perspective, and he had to know he'd take heat for it.

Nkirbit - While I think his case on Xeiron is ultimately wrong, it's also very very logical, and something that I'd expect from a town member. There's a few misrepresentations, and he keeps bringing up the "pen" issue that's not really an issue for me, but his case makes a lot of sense, and has me nodding along every time I read his views. The thing that gives me pause is that he's been pushing Xeiron constantly now, but got off of him quickly enough on D1, and voted on the mail-mi wagon with weakish reasoning, and was also on the Ahoppy wagon I believe?

Eevee - Obviously, he's going to be lower on this list than Xeiron. Given that I think Xeiron is probably town, I think Eevee is probably town, too. And I don't think there's a insignificant chance that Xeiron is scum, and his fellow scum are pushing on him right now with plans to immediately mislynch Eevee tomorrow. So this gives me even more of a town read on Eevee.

[nkirbit]

Nkirbit - While I think his case on Xeiron is ultimately wrong, it's also very very logical, and something that I'd expect from a town member. There's a few misrepresentations, and he keeps bringing up the "pen" issue that's not really an issue for me, but his case makes a lot of sense, and has me nodding along every time I read his views. The thing that gives me pause is that he's been pushing Xeiron constantly now, but got off of him quickly enough on D1, and voted on the mail-mi wagon with weakish reasoning, and was also on the Ahoppy wagon I believe?

What misrepresentations?  You think the pen thing isn't a big deal, and that's fair enough, but I don't think I'm misrepresenting anything there.  What am I misrepresenting?