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[xeiron]

Xeiron, please update us on your plan, if possible. Everything still on track?
[/quote]

My plan is a little reduced.
But five dead townies after N1 is not good.
It could still work though, but I am not sure how to take the next step.

We should consider no-lynch today.

If we are in mylo this could give us valuabe info before we have to lynch.

But if there are more than one kill tonight as well we can lose outright. I am not sure if we can risk that.

[Twistedarcher]

Absolutely against no lynch. Yes, it helps us get rid of one mislynch possibility, but I'd rather another vote be in the hands of a town member at this point.

[theorel]

Well, let's see...we just lost 2 parity-changing powers, vigilante and bomb.

That means we're probably down to defensive powers.

Assuming 3 scum, if we mislynch today, we'll have 4 town alive.  If we assume we have only targeted defenses, then the defender needs to hit the target or firer in that group.  That's a bit worse than 1/7 for a doctor, around 1/7 for a roleblocker, and let's say around 1/4 for a jailkeeper.  (doctor will fail if it's the target, jailkeeper has the same problem if it misses the shooting scum, so it's not quite 2/7).

But, then there might be some passive or nearly-passive defenses, like a commuter, hider, or bulletproof-ness.  By tonight someone might have an invented defensive-power to use as well.

I'm doubtful we'll have much in the way of useful offensive powers that can restore parity once we lose it.  I think we should lynch today, because if we're wrong we can still be in the game (if scum's kill fails).  Whereas if we no lynch, we probably lose someone we weren't planning on lynching anyways and then if we mislynch we pretty much lose.  (recovering from 50-50 might be impossible with what we have left)

[theorel]

Here's the final wagon on mail-mi (a towny):

On wagon: Xeiron, Eevee, Ahoppy, Nkirbit, Theorel, Chairs
Off wagon: Twistedarcher, Shraeye

It's crazy having one of those categories have only 2 players.  But there were like 4 wagons at the end of yesterday.  Could scum have happened to be all on one?  Hmm...if so, then there are 3 scum among: xeiron(started the wagon), Eevee("cleared" by xeiron from an alternative wagon), AHoppy (another alternative wagon), Nkirbit, and chairs (the quick-hammer).

If the scum-team were xeiron, Eevee, and AHoppy, all 3 were under suspicion as potential lynch candidates.  AHoppy and xeiron were avoiding the efhw lynch, but that was kind of before the other wagons really took off.  At that stage though, surely they would have just bussed.  I mean, town would never suspect AHoppy if Eevee flipped scum, because we always discount the possibility of multiple day-1 wagons all being scum.  So, I'm inclined to disbelieve that particular set.

So, it would need to not include AHoppy, but then why did xeiron go to all the trouble of starting up a mail-mi wagon and "copping" Eevee.  By which I mean, why not just join the AHoppy wagon (Eevee also).  If there's no other scum there, it seems excessive/dangerous to go to all that work to steer clear of the wagon.  So, that means that IF there's no scum off the mail-mi wagon, then the scum team seems most likely to be AHoppy, Nkirbit, and chairs.  I think it's much MORE likely that there is scum in the TwistedArcher-shraeye pairing, and probably 2 more on the mail-mi wagon.

So, I think it's in our best interests to lynch one of them.  I had some suspicions of shraeye before, but I don't remember his actions at the end of the day as particularly scummy.

[Twistedarcher]

If Ahoppy is scum, I'm really suspicious of Theorel and Chairs, and possibly Nkirbit as well, as his partners.

Basically, their reasoning for pushing the Mail-mi lynch through, rather than the Ahoppy lynch, seemed to be that we just really needed to get a lynch in. Fine, I agree, that's definitely true. But Ahoppy ended the day at 4 votes, and when Theorel hopped on the mail-mi wagon, he could have just as easy hopped on the Ahoppy wagon to get us closer to a lynch at the end of the day (yes, it's 5 votes against 6 for theorel and then 5 votes against 7 for chairs). But that's an easy excuse to avoid lynching a potential partner (Ahoppy) and instead getting on the bandwagon of a town. Nkirbit could have also just as easily joined the Ahoppy wagon as the Mail-mi one, especially when his reason for not voting Ahoppy turned out to not be a reason at all, but instead also joined the mail-mi wagon.

I'm still pretty certain that there was scum misdirection leading to the mail-mi wagon, and that at least one partner decided to hop on to the case.

Mail-mi always gets suspicion for playing that way. Every game, yet this game, the wagon picked up steam D1. I'm definitely sure that's because scum were avoiding one of the alternative lynches, meaning one of the alternative lynches is scum. That could be either Eevee or Ahoppy -- if it's Eevee, once again I'd rather lynch Xeiron. But I'm sure that that was a scum-driven wagon (of course, I'm helped by the fact that I know there were 2 scum on wagon).

Scum's NK was also off-wagon, not on-wagon.

[chairs]

At this point it seems to me very likely that I shall not be able to make my case without revealing quite a bit about myself that may or may not be beneficial for town to know.

Do I go for the reveal and explain why I think I'm right about my suspicion of shraeye?  I don't know what the appropriate play is here, so I'm willing to take suggestions from the crowd.

[Twistedarcher]

Depends on how firm your suspicion is. If you're pretty dang sure that he's scum, I'd say it's worth it.

[chairs]

Depends on how firm your suspicion is. If you're pretty dang sure that he's scum, I'd say it's worth it.

I'm taking a bit of a leap, but not too much and it would fit with theme.

[Twistedarcher]

Depends on how firm your suspicion is. If you're pretty dang sure that he's scum, I'd say it's worth it.

I'm taking a bit of a leap, but not too much and it would fit with theme.

I can't really give you any better advice that what I just did. Ultimately, it's a judgement call on your side -- you have to weigh the upside of catching scum vs. the downside of revealing. If all revealing is going to do is make you a NK target, then it's probably not too bad. If it could break the game for scum, though, it might not be worth it.

Given that we're in MYLO, I'd say anything to help catch scum is beneficially. If you're unsure, and you think we're lynching to lose the game, absolutely say what you have to say.

It's a judgement call that you can answer better than anyone else, ultimately.

[chairs]

The game is afoot, let's see how this plays out then.

I am a sharing flavor cop.

Due to the deaths that have happened so far this game, it is my strong suspicion that shraeye is scum, as we lynched Tesla (a townie) and Shraeye is his rival, Edison.  It would fit, thematically, for rival geniuses IRL to be rival geniuses in-game, and therefore I posit that shraeye is the scum of Menlow Park.

Vote: Shraeye

[Twistedarcher]

Well, I was hoping you had something stronger than that

It makes sense, I'll grant you, but that's really just flavor speculation. I'm already suspicious of Shraeye, but this doesn't paint him any more scummier than he already is. On the other hand though, I guess there's really not much harm in revealing your role to scum at this point..

I remember Ahoppy saying earlier on that if you designed this game, you would totally make Edison scum, but not Tesla. Ahoppy, what's with that? Was it just a joking statement, or was there some game-related information behind it.

Shraeye, can you confirm / deny that you are Edison?

[Twistedarcher]

When you cop someone, you merely get their flavor name, and not their alignment?

[chairs]

When you cop someone, you merely get their flavor name, and not their alignment?

Correct.

[Eevee]

And you've only copped once, why?

[chairs]

And you've only copped once, why?

I have copped more than once.  I don't have an argument to make based on the other results yet, though I suppose I -could- share them, it may or may not behoove town for me to do so.

[chairs]

Edit: replace "though" with "and although".

Also for some reason I thought we'd been through a third night, but as we've only been through 2 nights I only have one additional result.

[nkirbit]

I received this message last night.

It’s [redacted]. I’m a mailman, write 1 player nightly. Wrote mail-mi N0. Now, have a [redacted] (NO idea what it’s for). My items a telephone. Sending you 1 tonight. It doesn’t work alone though, you must combine it with something else (no idea what…)

Another reason why I think Xeiron is scum.  Does it make sense for pen to be in the game, when we already have a telephone, that would presumably be used for sending messages?  What else can pen be used for?  Do we think there are multiple combinations that create a mailman?

At some point in the near future, I'm going to go recap all of the reasons why I think Xeiron is scum.

[Twistedarcher]

Does that necessarily make Xeiron scummy, though? He could have just been assuming, knowing that paper's in the game, that combining pen and paper create a mail-man like power (which is a reasonable assumption). We know that paper's in the game, if Xeiron's role is something completely unrelated to communication devices (which is a fair assumption, given that he asked for paper + pen), how does requesting paper + pen paint him scummy?

If I'm correct, the reason that you find Xeiron scummy out of this is that you know that telephone's in the game, and because of that, you believe pen's not in the game. But Xeiron wouldn't know that, or know of the existence of a telephone -- he would have just been making an assumption (which we know town Xeiron does).

I agree that pen's probably not in the game. But I don't see how this makes Xeiron scummy.

[nkirbit]

Xeiron at one point said, "I have reason to believe that pen is in the game."  And I don't think his reason was that paper is in the game.  But he refused to elaborate on his reasoning, just like he refused to elaborate on any of his reads (which turned out to be incorrect, btw... both mail-mi and EFHW were town!).

[Twistedarcher]

He specifically said he "might or might not" have more reason to believe it's in the game than the rest of us.

Xeiron, why are you being so dang shady about everything, especially your reads? Can you please get your reads out here? I'm going to find you scummy until you actually post your reads and defend them.

[Twistedarcher]

Ok, say pen's not in the game, yet Xeiron claimed he believed it was.

Does this make him scummy? Or just mistaken town yet again?

[chairs]

He specifically said he "might or might not" have more reason to believe it's in the game than the rest of us.

Xeiron, why are you being so dang shady about everything, especially your reads? Can you please get your reads out here? I'm going to find you scummy until you actually post your reads and defend them.

Agreed, this is kind of scummy.

[Twistedarcher]

Using Theorel's suggestion to go and look at some notable wagons from yesterday. Here's the positions of the alive players on each wagon. Note, this is just votes, not opinions -- I'm sure there's many cases of someone finding a player scummy yet having their vote somewhere else, not being around in the time a wagon formed and dissolved, etc.

Mail-mi final wagon:
On wagon: Xeiron, Eevee, Ahoppy, Nkirbit, Theorel, Chairs
Off wagon: Twistedarcher, Shraeye

Xeiron wagon at height:
On wagon: Shraeye, Nkirbit, Theorel
Off wagon: TA, Eevee, Ahoppy, Chairs

Eevee wagon at height:
On wagon: Ahoppy, theorel, Twistedarcher, nkirbit, Chairs (Chairs and nkirbit both hopped on-and-off the wagon at several points)
Off wagon: Shraeye, Xeiron

EFHW wagon:
Only alive person on wagon was Eevee

Ahoppy wagon at height:
On wagon: Shraeye, Nkirbit, Chairs, TA
Off wagon: Theorel, Xeiron, Eevee


Interesting things to note --

The Eevee wagon at its height was really interesting -- it got up to 5 votes, went down a little bit, went back up to 6, had an unvote, went to 6 again, and then finally Xeiron's claim after intent to hammer. This could either be unsure town (Chairs has been jump with his vote, as has Nkirbit), or scum trying to ride a fine line between making sure their partner survives and making sure they're on the right side of the lynch if Eevee flips town.

Apart from EFHW, nkirbit was on every wagon of the day, and Chairs was on every one except for Xeiron (and I think he may have missed this one due to being in Chicago?). Theorel was on every wagon except for EFHW and Ahoppy.

Shraeye was off wagon for the two wagons with the most supporters (Mail-mi and Eevee). This could make sense in the context of scum trying to make sure there's at least 1 scum off-wagon for any potential mislynch.

The only wagon Xeiron was on was mail-mi, which was consistent with his idea of a mail-mi - TA - Shraeye scum team.

[chairs]

I stayed off the Xeiron wagon so we could try his paper+pen thing.

[chairs]

How likely do you think a Xeiron/Shraeye/Nkirbit scumteam might be?  They couldn't have expected the mass death of town last night, so the Xeiron wagon (which looked pretty certain not to pass based on the "I have a plan" gambit) would be a safe place to look towny if Xeiron flipped scum after his "plan" fell through (this is just assuming scum!Xeiron).

Just musing, but the concept intrigues me.  I'm certainly not sold on that team, as it were.