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[liopoil]

at this point I think they might both be town, and Yuma is a bus driver or something, I dunno. In any case, Yuma, if you know something that might make it possible that they are both town you should probably tell us.

[Robz888]

Okay, I'm still extremely sold on lynching mcmc, I have to say.

[Robz888]

Well, them both being town might actually be a legitimate explanation for all this absurdity.

Actually... yeah. Huh. That might be it.

[ashersky]

At the request of the mods, I have agreed not to quit this game.  Mcmc has apologized and I have accepted.  I'd rather not discuss that stuff and just leave it in the past.  Let's just leave it at that, if that's okay with everyone.

I am still in the game, but probably won't post that much for the rest of today.  I've prepared what I think is important to say, and will leave it to the town to decide what to do.

1) In response to mcmc's accusation that I'm lying:

Of course he's going to say that.  Caught scum has to say the town PR that caught them is lying.  The fact of the matter is, when you look at when I revealed the result, there is no good reason for it coming from scum as a lie.  It is Day 2 and scum is in a pretty good position, having gotten a mislynch and a night kill through already.  It's just not smart scum play.  Did it look polished and planned out?  Of course it did.  I had the result since before my first post of D2.  I thought it through completely.  I decided when and how I would reveal the result.  In the end, town needs to decide which person to believe.  I know I'm telling the truth, and I think it is pretty clear.

More on how this is not a smart scum play.  Why do this D2?  Possibly to save a scum partner, I guess.  But we weren't even nearing a lynch when I revealed.  I revealed because of timing issues for when the day is supposed to end.  I revealed because I thought we had gotten enough interactions and information to analyze.  I see no positives in a fake claim by scum unwarranted at that time of the game.  Mcmc's claim, on the other hand, was under pressure of death, and makes more sense for scum to make.

2)  Why mcmc's claim is clearly fake:

A few reasons, of course.  His claim came under pressure, and after he said he wouldn't claim anything at all.  I think that looks especially bad, and his claim is desperation.  The fact that he says he is a JK, which I find very unlikely to be included anyway, and that he jailed liopoil, which doesn't jive at all with his D2 play.  I mean, I had a result from N1, and it changed my entire demeanor for D2.  I played with purpose.  But mcmc claims he knew the entire time that liopoil didn't do the kill, or anything, and yet nothing changed from his D1 tunnel.  He could still be scum that didn't kill, sure, but not doing the kill is a fact if mcmc is telling the truth, and he should have taken that into account in his reads/posts.  He didn't.  It's because he didn't jail anyone.

More on why I think JK is unlikely.  I am a Tracker, and we know we have an IC.  These aren't overpowered roles in a small game.  I mentioned Bus Driver as the only thing that could clear mcmc...it's a sensible scum counter role to the Tracker (or a Watcher, I guess), since it deals with who did what, not alignments.  If I was a Cop, I would think a Godfather more likely.  Why do I think these things?  I've modded a lot of games, including creating set-ups with balance in mind.  C9++, which I've run twice, is a gold standard for balance and doesn't even include JKs.  JK + IC is overpowered, since the IC gets confirmed, then is protected the rest of the game, without taking anything away from the role (which is the usual drawback of doctoring as a JK).

So, to recap: mcmc's claim came under pressure, seems unlikely in the setup, and his "usage" of the power doesn't jive with a true town PR.  Then, the knowledge he should have gained had no effect on his play, and I still don't believe the "I didn't know Robz was IC" claim, either.  Mcmc is lying.

3)  What we should do.

Clearly, we should lynch mcmc.  But what I mean is, we should definitely lynch mcmc or me.  I think scum suggested leaving both claimants alive in Pirates and mislynched to win.  We need to lynch a claimant here.  So town should decide who they believe, and go from there.

I was super excited about this, being a town PR and actually catching scum.  In DS9, as the Detective, I finally caught scum on like N4, but he got killed by the other scum team, so I've never been able to help town like this before.  It's part of why I was so worried with how anti-town I had been perceived as in recent games, too.  I knew I had an uphill battle to fight on this.  I hope I was able to at least make a difference.

I'm not going to go back and quote and reply to specific things, unless you ask me to.  Or, feel free to quote and/or ask again if there were specific questions.  I don't really want to re-read particular pages.  I think I've laid out my thoughts pretty well here, and hopefully it's enough for my fellow townies to understand where I'm coming from.

[Robz888]

I believe ashersky. I do.

My only hang up is the possibility that both are town. Why do I think this is even possible? Mostly because of the blow up. In my IRL mafia experience, the most tense standoffs occur when some mistake has been made. I recall a game where three players were left, and none were mafia (the mod was screwing around). The final vote went on for an hour. All three players were crying and yelling. This had never happened in our group of mafia players before. The fact that no one was lying DID produce a different physical reaction. And this does remind me of that.

[ashersky]

Well, them both being town might actually be a legitimate explanation for all this absurdity.

Actually... yeah. Huh. That might be it.

I think the only way that works is the bus driver.  I do think that role fits the flavor setting, and as a part of a set-up with a tracker.

We can't confirm it unless its a town role that claims (unlikely).  I think it is probably a scum role.

The danger is that mcmc was bus driven, we lynch him wrongly, then they leave me alive to mislynch tomorrow.  There's a risk I track real scum, but I think scum takes that chance.  I know I would if I was scum.

I don't think the chance of the bus driving is enough to change our lynch plans, though.  A lot of that belief comes from mcmc's fake claim, and his reaction.  He didn't even try to explain things logically.

[ashersky]

Bus drivers mess with results, right?  Assuming we are both town for a minute, who's flip helps us more?

Mcmc flips town, confirms a bus driver.
Ash flips town, doesn't confirm whether mcmc was bus driven or lying scum.

I still think mcmc is the right lynch.

Going for someone other than us both is an option, but is it smart?  Is there a consensus scummy selection?  I feel like that's what happened in Pirates on the last day.

[Robz888]

I still think we should go for mcmc, but if he flips town, I won't automatically assume you were scum.

Which is real nice for you if you're scum, so good job

But seriously, I don't think you could have anticipated a Bus Driver excuse saving you when mcmc flipped town, which makes me think you aren't lying.

[xeiron]

I am pretty confident Ashersky is town.
His claim came without pressure at a time it made sense to claim.
His actions in day two do fit with his claim.

If he were scum desperate for a mislynch it would be easier for him to put his vote on me. It is hard to guess the future, but i was feeling that we were heading towards lynching me before ashersky claimed. Why a 1-1 exchange with mcmc whhen you have a mislynch in front of me?

Even if you think I am scum, it do not make sense.
I would be in spotlight if ash flip scum. And 1 town against two scum is no good trade for scum.

I guess the only way asherskys actions would make sense as scum is if you believe he is lining up two mislynches, mcmc and me. But that is a long, complicated plan where much could go wrong. Better walk the safe road and mislynch me today.
Since scum ashersky does not make much sense, i believe Ashersky is town.

Now on mcmc. He has claims that do not fit with ashersky. He might be town, if so and so, but a much more plausible explanation is that he is scum.

I still support lynching mcmc, but it is worth hearing what yuma has to say first.

[spiritbears]

Look I could go back to a Mai lynch. No problem.  But I do believe ash. If that's true, and if ash is right, MC cAN't be be town....he targeted nk. Leaving him around means another death tonight. If ash is right. Only one claim can be right.  They both can't be town.  I guess my question is for you robzz. How do you read your brothers anger?  Was it real or feigned? And Yuma. Hurry up.

[mcmcsalot]

Okay, we may both be town, in that scenario, scum will leave the other one alive(if they are town) as wifom, if we lynch me we lose a jailkeeper and have a tracker whose results you cannot trust. If we lynch ash, we lose a tracker and have a jailkeeper who is still usefull by being able to block a nightkill. I think not knowing which one of us is town and not being able to tell after one of us flips definitely means we should lynch ash.

Also, I think ash is actually a mafia rolecop and he found out I was a jailkeeper. This would be why his play all of Day 2 has lead perfectly to look like he got a scum result on me, he did it on purpose. Also ash says that he didn't need to claim because scum was in a good position, but this is not true if he knew town had an IC, and JK, and if one of the scum was going to be lynched today(I was hard on ash and liopoil, others were hard on Xieron) that would open the day with 2 scum, 5 town, and one of IC/JK or both. Thats at worst 2/6 with a confirmed townie(not a horrible place for town)

Lastly I don't think the thing that happened was do to alignments, it was simply the way ash was arguing his points(which could be done as scum or town) that caused me to be offended and respond in a childish and negative way(something that also could have happened as town or scum)

[mcmcsalot]

Look I could go back to a Mai lynch. No problem.  But I do believe ash. If that's true, and if ash is right, MC cAN't be be town....he targeted nk. Leaving him around means another death tonight. If ash is right. Only one claim can be right.  They both can't be town.  I guess my question is for you robzz. How do you read your brothers anger?  Was it real or feigned? And Yuma. Hurry up.

Why does this keep being said this way? Am I just not understanding how things work?

Correct me if I am wrong but this is all that is true:
I could not have been bus driven as town because nk would not have died.
Ash could have been bus driven and got the result of someone else targeting nk.

3 possibilites are:
I could be town and ash scum
I could be scum and ash town
I could be town and ash could be busdriven town

[mcmcsalot]

Bus drivers mess with results, right?  Assuming we are both town for a minute, who's flip helps us more?

Mcmc flips town, confirms a bus driver.
Ash flips town, doesn't confirm whether mcmc was bus driven or lying scum.

I still think mcmc is the right lynch.

Going for someone other than us both is an option, but is it smart?  Is there a consensus scummy selection?  I feel like that's what happened in Pirates on the last day.

Again, If I flip town, you could have been bus driven or you could be lying scum. If you flip town, you could have been bus driven or I could be lying scum.

Ashersky is doing everything he can to make me look like the best lynch, I am have been constantly rereading and making cases and arguing why I am not a good lynch with facts. Read through my post and ash's posts after the claims, who is doing more work and using more facts, and who is using tactics of making the other persons cases/posts look bad.

[spiritbears]

Look I could go back to a Mai lynch. No problem.  But I do believe ash. If that's true, and if ash is right, MC cAN't be be town....he targeted nk. Leaving him around means another death tonight. If ash is right. Only one claim can be right.  They both can't be town.  I guess my question is for you robzz. How do you read your brothers anger?  Was it real or feigned? And Yuma. Hurry up.

Why does this keep being said this way? Am I just not understanding how things work?

Correct me if I am wrong but this is all that is true:
I could not have been bus driven as town because nk would not have died.
Ash could have been bus driven and got the result of someone else targeting nk.

3 possibilites are:
I could be town and ash scum
I could be scum and ash town
I could be town and ash could be busdriven town

I don't see how that's possible if Ash saw you target nk....I don't really understand this busdriver thing you keep pushing, but I don't see how that could have changed whst ash saw. If I believe ash I have to believe you're scum.

[mcmcsalot]

Look I could go back to a Mai lynch. No problem.  But I do believe ash. If that's true, and if ash is right, MC cAN't be be town....he targeted nk. Leaving him around means another death tonight. If ash is right. Only one claim can be right.  They both can't be town.  I guess my question is for you robzz. How do you read your brothers anger?  Was it real or feigned? And Yuma. Hurry up.

Why does this keep being said this way? Am I just not understanding how things work?

Correct me if I am wrong but this is all that is true:
I could not have been bus driven as town because nk would not have died.
Ash could have been bus driven and got the result of someone else targeting nk.

3 possibilites are:
I could be town and ash scum
I could be scum and ash town
I could be town and ash could be busdriven town

I don't see how that's possible if Ash saw you target nk....I don't really understand this busdriver thing you keep pushing, but I don't see how that could have changed whst ash saw. If I believe ash I have to believe you're scum.

I am not "pushing" the busdriver thing I do not think there has been any busdriving, I am clarifying things because ash said my flipping town proves there is a bus driver and if ash flips town I could still be lying scum, that is a completely false statement.

But what a busdriver does(someone correct me if I am wrong) but it makes a player target someone other than the person they actually targeted, they are not told this happened. So if ash was busdriven, he could think he targeted me but actually have targeted someone else. I could not have been busdriven and made to target nk because he would have been saved by my jailkeeping. If I flip town ashersky is scum or was busdriven(if ash flips town I am scum or he was busdriven)

[ashersky]

I think mcmc is wrong on bus driver, but maybe I am.  My understanding is bus driver chooses two targets and they are switched.

For example, ScumA and mcmc are bus driven by whoever.  Now, when mcmc is targeted by someone (me), everything I see is actually from ScumA, but I think it is mcmc.  If I had tracked ScumA, I would have seen whatever mcmc did.  That's how a bus driver could be responsible for this.

Where mcmc is misleading here is saying that if I was bus driven, he'd be clear.  Bus driving affects what happens to targets, not to action takers.  Me being bus driven still means mcmc is scum, because I tracked him target nkirbit.

[mcmcsalot]

I think mcmc is wrong on bus driver, but maybe I am.  My understanding is bus driver chooses two targets and they are switched.

For example, ScumA and mcmc are bus driven by whoever.  Now, when mcmc is targeted by someone (me), everything I see is actually from ScumA, but I think it is mcmc.  If I had tracked ScumA, I would have seen whatever mcmc did.  That's how a bus driver could be responsible for this.

Where mcmc is misleading here is saying that if I was bus driven, he'd be clear.  Bus driving affects what happens to targets, not to action takers.  Me being bus driven still means mcmc is scum, because I tracked him target nkirbit.

What do you mean by this, I am honestly just confused. You are saying the bus driver chooses me and scumA and when someone target me they actually target scumA and vice versa. In that scenario you could have targeted me but actually seen scumA target nk.
Funny I think we are saying the exact same thing then. I was saying you would target me but be "bus driven" to scumA and target them instead. The end result is the exact same, you think you targeted me but actually targeted scumA.

So what this means is still that if I flip town you could be lying about your targeting and result and be scum. This is in direct contradiction to what you said before

Mcmc flips town, confirms a bus driver.
Ash flips town, doesn't confirm whether mcmc was bus driven or lying scum.

Bolded statement is false:
if I flip town, you could have targeted me and seen scumA(making you town) or you could be lying scum.
if you flip town, you could have targeted me and seen scumA(making me town) or I could be lying scum.

The fact that you are continually making statements that are self serving and making you "look townie" and me "look scummy" is such proof you are scum I cannot believe this town is having a hard time figuring out who to lynch.

[spiritbears]

Well I think bringing busdriving into it just needlessly complicates it. Seems more bastsrdly than regular. So I am going to choose not to believe it.
And without Yuma stepping up and sharing anything new, I'm probably just going to vote mc.  Sorry for to go with my gut.  But if mc flips town, I'm not going to believe and busdriving be and will take it to mean ash played us. Hey. Btw does mai's vla end before the new deadline?

[Eevee]

I find people thinking bus driver is a likely explanation EXTREMELY weird. I guess it's possible, yeah. But there is no way that narrative is more likely than either mcmc or ash being scum and lying. So, I think definitely lynching one of the two is best. I think one of them is scum something like 95% of the time, for the busdriver thing to be true, SO many variables need to go just right. Either of the two lying is just WAY simpler, way more likely.

As to whom I believe, it's still very muchly ashersky. I initially believed ashersky, their fight didn't change anything to me (and it didn't look very alignment-based anyways, just two heavily invested players getting a little too serious), I think ashersky's point of both JK+IC being in the same game being unlikely is actually very damning for mcmc and really, ashersky came out unclaimed, this is not a situation of a counterclaim as mcmc needed to claim something to not be lynched. Yeah, I think most everything points to ashersky being truthful and mcmc is greatly exaggerating the quotes he pulled up to prove his towniness. And I tend to have a HUGE bias for people who say I seem towny, but the facts are so convincing to me I STILL suspect mcmc way more. I'd estimate mcmc is scum 70%, ashersky is scum 25% and both are town 5%.

Vote: mcmc, unless yuma's info is something dramatic, I don't see this changing for me.

[Eevee]

Well I think bringing busdriving into it just needlessly complicates it. Seems more bastsrdly than regular. So I am going to choose not to believe it.
And without Yuma stepping up and sharing anything new, I'm probably just going to vote mc.  Sorry for to go with my gut.  But if mc flips town, I'm not going to believe and busdriving be and will take it to mean ash played us. Hey. Btw does mai's vla end before the new deadline?

I agree with this. I've actually found myself nodding in approval to a bunch of spiritbears posts lately.

[ashersky]

The fact that you are continually making statements that are self serving and making you "look townie" and me "look scummy" is such proof you are scum I cannot believe this town is having a hard time figuring out who to lynch.

You can apply this statement to yourself, right?  It's a nothing statement, as in it doesn't say anything new, since it literally applies to anyone in any situation in a mafia game.

[mcmcsalot]

I find people thinking bus driver is a likely explanation EXTREMELY weird. I guess it's possible, yeah. But there is no way that narrative is more likely than either mcmc or ash being scum and lying. So, I think definitely lynching one of the two is best. I think one of them is scum something like 95% of the time, for the busdriver thing to be true, SO many variables need to go just right. Either of the two lying is just WAY simpler, way more likely.

As to whom I believe, it's still very muchly ashersky. I initially believed ashersky, their fight didn't change anything to me (and it didn't look very alignment-based anyways, just two heavily invested players getting a little too serious), I think ashersky's point of both JK+IC being in the same game being unlikely is actually very damning for mcmc and really, ashersky came out unclaimed, this is not a situation of a counterclaim as mcmc needed to claim something to not be lynched. Yeah, I think most everything points to ashersky being truthful and mcmc is greatly exaggerating the quotes he pulled up to prove his towniness. And I tend to have a HUGE bias for people who say I seem towny, but the facts are so convincing to me I STILL suspect mcmc way more. I'd estimate mcmc is scum 70%, ashersky is scum 25% and both are town 5%.

Vote: mcmc, unless yuma's info is something dramatic, I don't see this changing for me.

Bring these up too me after the games over and town has lost please/thanks

[mcmcsalot]

gosh I want yuma to get here so this can be over one way or the other. I am getting through to absolutely noone and its the most frustrating thing ever. We are having no produtive conversation now because people just keep going over the fact that they think i'm scummy and ash keeps saying its true. I have given my reads. Probably ash/liopoil/xeiron are the scum team, look at how they have all moved during claiming ect. I was hard on liopoil(and still think i'm right) if your going to bus bus early I think xeiron did that, then ash came in and made a very scummy position trying to make me and liopoil look like scum(I have gone over a zillion times how this is scummy from an outside perspective) that doesn't work and I jump on ash, meanwhile everyone jumps on Xeiron because his case on liopoil was weird and out of nowhere(hint its cuz he was bussing) and then ash claims to save his whole team and makes me look like scum. Yuma could be scum to I haven't reread him in a long time, as well as mail-mi. I think eevee and spirit and ahoppy are town

[Eevee]

For ash to be scum, he'd have to planned the claim from the day start (the breadcrumbs, his play that's consistent with the result), he'd have to be exactly a scum rolecop that targeted you day 1 and decided to go after a strong power role, a role that I btw think is unlikely to exist in a game with an IC. For you to be scum ash needs to be a tracker (makes sense with an ic) that tracked you (his reasons make sense) and you to be the mafia goon that made the kill. It basically comes down to this: Ash decided to come out, with a claim that makes 100% sense. His play fits his claim 100%, the narrative makes perfect sense. You needed to claim something as ash had already caught you, I think the unpressured vs pressured thing already makes a big difference in likelihood + all the other factors. Really, the only thing that points towards you being town is being upset (that has historically been a town trait here), but you are aware of that so you could have faked that / you could have been scum that got pissed.

[spiritbears]

I really am sorry you're frustrated mc. I wish you weren't. But I'm afraid I can't help that any...except to maybe move this along a little quicker
vote:mcmcsalot