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[spiritbears]

Sorry if I wasn't clear ash, I don't think your scummy for not self-voting or dying for town. I think your scummy because your not as loud as I expect you to be. Self voting, and offering to be lynched I don't expect, but cases to back up your reads, lots of reads, challenging people on game theory, coming up with ideas, making people believe what you believe, are all things I expect from town!ash. All I see is ash who thinks I'm scum but doesn't push it or anything very hard. Not offering to be lynched and not wanting to stand out are two different things.

Have to admit this does kindof make sense.  Not ready to come off my town read oh ash yet though.

[AHoppy]

Alright, I (mostly) am all caught up.  I'm currently working on some big analysis thing that I will post once I finish, I'm not sure what (if any) useful information I will be able to glean from it, but it seems to me like it could be useful, and you guys might be able to do more with it that I can.  More coming soon (as in tonight)

regarding the soft deadline: I will try to be there, but I have Ultimate Frisbee from 7-9, so I may be able to be there a bit Thursday afternoon, but not until just after the deadline.  Moving it back to 10 or 11 may help me.  But that's up to you guys.

Regarding ash:  I don't know his meta and I don't really get the whole voting and killing himself thing (if someone could explain the strategic advantage to that, that would be great.  My only thought is that it garuntees that he is town so his opinions then carry more weight... doesn't seem very good to me...)  But my current read on him from this game is slightly scummy.  He is quite reactionary and gets quite passionate about things.  Especially being reactionary, he seems to overreact to me and that seems like something scum might do with the slightest pressure. 

Right now I'm leaning towards an X lynch or a m-m lynch.  X seems to be scummy because his liopoil post seemed like something he strongly believed, but then when people weren't buying it he claimed it was a joke, which seems scummy.  "hey, here's my idea, what do you guys all think?"  "It's pretty terrible"  "oh no, I didn't really mean it".  Yeah not really buying it.  This then also puts the FoS back on m-m.  He looked scummy to me earlier, and his quick jump onto X's wagon makes me suspicious.

As for my lack of presence, I'm sorry, I didn't really realize completely what I was signing up for when I got into this.  When I fall behind in something it takes a lot to motivate me to get back into it, and I didn't realize how much catching up would take.  Don't get me wrong, I'm really enjoying the game, it can just be hard sometimes.  I try not to spend all day in front of a computer, that's what I do at work.  anyways, lio said this:

First off, it's worth note that this is Ahoppy's first game I believe. It also so happens that scum chose their partners this game. he is in the same boat as nkirbit in that they are unlikely choices. However, scum did know a little bit about Ahoppy pre-game. He has played in many non-mafia forum games and has 89 posts in the main forum, you know, the part about dominion? So while I think he is less likely to be chosen than others, he could still very well be chosen because whoever the scum was might have known a little bit about him. compare to nkirbit (who is town) who all that scum knew about him was that he was TwistedArcher's brother.

by many, he means that I played in Agricola III (with none of you) and am currently in 7 Wonders IV with lio and NK, and which I requested be started.  So yes, I've played forum games, but only 2 (well, I'm starting an Agricola IV).  Some exaggeration on lio's part.  All that people know about me is that I like Dominion, I'm not very good at it, as you could see by going back through my 89 posts.  I played in the last IsoDom last year (Doing horribly).  I improved considerably for the first Gokodom, but still only won 1 match and drew I think 2 of them.  So yeah, that's a bit about me.  And no spiritbears, I'm no alter ego If you look, my lingo and understanding only extends to what lingo and theories that have been discussed thus far.

[Robz888]

I'm not all the way caught up, but I am getting closer, and at this point I would like to lynch mcmc or mail-mi. I may be overcompensating for M-XXIII, but mail-mi has the least presence of anyone so far this game, and mcmc's misunderstanding about the IC thing, which I took to be genuine at the time, actually does seem way more suspicious on re-read.

Ashersky seems curiously unlike himself, by the way. Usually I find myself disagreeing with his methods but being relatively certain he's town. I think he's much less abrasive this game. That's a good thing, but... I don't know.

My strongest read is on spiritbears. SB is town.

[shraeye]

Vote Count 2.5
mcmcsalot (2): ashersky, mail-mi
liopoil (2): mcmcsalot, xeiron
xeiron (3): yuma, liopoil, spiritbears
mail-mi (1): Eevee

Not voting: AHoppy, Robz888

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Deadline is 8pm forum time on Saturday, June 8th

[AHoppy]

Alright.  Here comes my little project I have been working on this afternoon.  So I am a mechanical engineering student, with an interest in computer science.  So I like patterns and concrete things.  So data.  this bickering between everyone kind grinds on me after a while.  So what I have done is boil the game down to the votes and start looking for pattens.  I'm not looking at any arguments people have made at the moment, I'm just looking at the hard data that I have: Who people have voted for.  I'm not sure how useful any of this will be, but I figure it's a good thing to look at the game from a different perspective.  so here goes.  I apologize in advance for
 Attachments and other options
shortcuts: hit alt+s to submit/post or alt+p to preview taking up all of your screen space.

Here is the list of votes from the beginning of the game (actually from pre-game) with a few notes thrown in for the important events.  This should be pretty self explanatory, but I have shortned everyone's names.  Also, votes work like this:  [voter] -> [voted].  So if i voted for mail-mi, it looks like this: ah -> mm.  Hope that makes sense.  I have a few charts.  The first: The whole game.
Disclaimer:  I have done my best to collect the votes correctly, but I am human and am prone to error.  If any of these data looks incorrect, please correct me.  It is not my intention to misrepresent information.

ash -> mc
mm -> nk
lio -> everyone not playing
-------Game Start-------
mm -> nk
ash -> lio
sb -> mm
nk -> ev
mm -> ev
ah -> mm
s -> mm
lio -> RVS
-------End RVS?-------
y -> rob
sb -> ash
s -> rob
mgp -> rob
ash -> sb
mm -> ash
ev -> ash
mc -> sb
mc -> unvote
ah -> unvote
ash -> unvote
sb -> unvote
rob -> sb
sb -> rob
mgp -> sb
mc-> mgp
y -> mgp
y -> unvote
mm -> rob
mm -> ev
sb -> ev
ash -> ah
nk -> ah
ah -> mm
ash -> unvote
s -> ev
rob -> ev
mgp -> unvote
nk -> mgp
ash -> mgp
mc -> ev
mc -> unvote
sb -> mgp
mm -> unvote
ev -> mm
ah -> ev
ah -> unvote
y -> rob
rob -> mm
mm -> rob
s -> mm
lio -> rob
mc -> lio
sb -> rob
nk -> rob
s -> mm
ash -> mm
nk -> unvote
s -> mm
nk -> rob
y -> s
rob -> s
rob -> ah
lio -> rob
ash -> rob
s -> rob
lio -> s
ev -> s
y -> rob
ev -> mm
ah -> mm
s -> mm
lio -> rob
--------IC Revealed-------
ash -> unvote
rob -> y
ash -> mm
nk -> unvote
s -> mm
x -> y
lio -> s
y -> unvote
y -> s
sb -> unvote
mm -> unvote
mm -> s
x -> s
rob -> s
ash -> s ------- L-1
s -> ash
nk -> s ------- hammer
-----------D2----------
sb -> mc
mm -> mc
mc -> lio
x -> ev
y -> x
ash -> mc
x -> lio
mm -> unvote
mm -> lio
lio -> x
ev -> mm
sb -> unvote
mc -> lio
sb -> x
mm -> mc

So that's a lot to digest and it looks kinda difficult to read.  So my next thought is: alright, let's boil this down into who each individual player voted for, and who in turn voted against them.






Votes by player:


ash:
ash -> mc
ash -> lio
ash -> unvote
ash -> ah
ash -> unvote
ash -> mgp
ash -> mm
ash -> rob
ash -> unvote
ash -> mm
ash -> s ------- L-1
11
votes against:
sb -> ash
mm -> ash
ev -> ash
s -> ash
4


mm:
mm -> nk
mm -> nk
mm -> ev
mm -> ash
mm -> rob
mm -> ev
mm -> unvote
mm -> rob
mm -> unvote
mm -> s
mm -> mc
mm -> unvote
mm -> lio
mm -> mc
14
Votes against:
ah -> mm
s -> mm
ah -> mm
ev -> mm
rob -> mm
s -> mm
s -> mm
ash -> mm
s -> mm
ev -> mm
ah -> mm
s -> mm
ash -> mm
s -> mm
ev -> mm
15


mc:
mc -> sb
mc -> unvote
mc-> mgp
mc -> ev
mc -> unvote
mc -> lio
mc -> lio
mc -> lio
8
Votes against:
ash -> mc
sb -> mc
mm -> mc
ash -> mc
mm -> mc
5


nk:
nk -> ev
nk -> ah
nk -> mgp
nk -> rob
nk -> unvote
nk -> rob
nk -> unvote
nk -> s ------- hammer
8
Votes against:
mm -> nk
mm -> nk
2


lio:
lio -> everyone not playing
lio -> RVS
lio -> rob
lio -> rob
lio -> s
lio -> rob
lio -> s
lio -> x
8
Votes against:
ash -> lio
mc -> lio
mc -> lio
x -> lio
mm -> lio
mc -> lio
6


sb:
sb -> mm
sb -> ash
sb -> unvote
sb -> rob
sb -> ev
sb -> mgp
sb -> rob
sb -> unvote
sb -> mc
sb -> unvote
sb -> x
11
Votes against:
ash -> sb
mc -> sb
rob -> sb
mgp -> sb
4


ah:
ah -> mm
ah -> unvote
ah -> mm
ah -> ev
ah -> unvote
ah -> mm
6
Votes against:
ash -> ah
nk -> ah
rob -> ah
3


y:
y -> rob
y -> mgp
y -> unvote
y -> rob
y -> s
y -> rob
6
Votes against:
rob -> y
x -> y
2


mgp/x:
mgp -> rob
mgp -> sb
mgp -> unvote
x -> y
x -> s
x -> ev
x -> lio
7
Votes against:
mc-> mgp
y -> mgp
nk -> mgp
ash -> mgp
sb -> mgp
y -> x
lio -> x
sb -> x
8


rob:
rob -> sb
rob -> ev
rob -> mm
rob -> s
rob -> ah
rob -> y
rob -> s
7
Votes Against:
y -> rob
s -> rob
mgp -> rob
sb -> rob
mm -> rob
y -> rob
mm -> rob
lio -> rob
sb -> rob
nk -> rob
nk -> rob
lio -> rob
ash -> rob
s -> rob
y -> rob
lio -> rob
16


ev:
ev -> ash
ev -> mm
ev -> s
ev -> mm
ev -> mm
5
Votes against:
nk -> ev
mm -> ev
mm -> ev
sb -> ev
s -> ev
rob -> ev
mc -> ev
ah -> ev
x -> ev
9


s:
s -> mm
s -> rob
s -> ev
s -> mm
s -> mm
s -> mm
s -> rob
s -> mm
s -> mm
s -> ash
10
Votes against:
y -> s
rob -> s
lio -> s
ev -> s
lio -> s
y -> s
mm -> s
x -> s
rob -> s
ash -> s ------- L-1
nk -> s ------- hammer



The numbers after each section is just a count of the votes.  So now I then broke this down further (I have this on paper, not digital, so no copy-paste here).  I took each person and just looked at who else that person had voted for.  How do I use this information though?  well, what do I know?  I know 3 of these people are townies.  So, let's look at who voted for the townies


key:  [name] - [number of townies voted for]/[total number of different people voted for]


ash - 2/7
-> mm- 3/7
mc - 0/4
-> nk - 2/5
lio - 2/3
sb - 1/6
ah - 0/2
y - 2/3
mgp/x - 2/6
rob - 1/6
ev - 1/3
s - 1/4


The reason for the arrows on nk and mm are that they are the only two people who voted for all the currently known townies (nk of course knowing that he himself is a townie).  Now, my thought is that a townie would move their vote around a lot because they are trying to get the most information from the most people.  They are the ones worried about scum hunting.  Although, a tricky scum could also do the same thing, so high variability does not necessarily mean town, but for this analysis I'm going to give variability town-cred.  Now, the other thing to look at are the wagons:  robz, sudgy, and mm. so let's list how many of the people at some point voted for someone who had a wagon (from here on out, I'm analyzing this on the fly and just kind of getting my thoughts down.  Some may be useful, some may be dead ends.  Let's go on an adventure!):


Red indicates that player was on max wagons (-1 if they had a wagon themselves)ash - 3mm- 2mc - 0
nk - 2lio - 2sb - 2
ah - 1
y - 2
mgp/x - 2
rob -2
ev - 2
s - 2
 


alright.  Looking at this this actually doesn't look terribly useful.  2 of the confirmed town were on max wagons, so that doesn't really seem to tell us much about those others who were on the max wagons.  I would like to note that yuma and lio have the highest on-wagon/number of players voted ratio (2 on-wagon votes/3 total different votes).  However, I would lean towards scum jumping from wagon to wagon, pushing those that look ready to tip.  Possibly even jumping out at the last second to not get caught up in those who lynched the D1 lynch.  Let's look into that now.


so the D1 lynch was sudgy, were there any bailers last minute?  Nope.  looks like a dead end.  Alright, where to next?  let's go back to the variability thing:
least variable: ah, y, ev, lio.  (var<=3) 
mid: mc, s, nk (3<var<=5)
high: mm, ash, mgp/x, rob (var>5)
So my initial thought was that low variability is scummy and high variability is towny.  so if I look at our known townies... I don't really get anything.  Robz has high variability, and nk is on the upper end of the mid spectrum, but s is not.  So I'm going to say variability is a good place to start, but definitely not the end all.


let's try looking at total number of vote changes:


ash - 11mm- 14mc - 8
nk - 8
lio - 8
sb - 11
ah - 6
y - 6
mgp/x - 7
rob -7
ev - 5
s - 10
 
well, it looks like this is just as confusing as the variability data.  But maybe if we cross-reference the two...
low (<=6) ev, ah, y
mid(>6 && <=10) s, rob, mgp/x, lio, nk, mc
high(>10) sb, mm, ash


So where does this all leave us?  I'm not sure.  The of the people with low variability, only lio is missing in the low vote changes section.  at the high end mm and ash are the only common two. 

Alright, so overall, looks like this data thing confused me more than it helped.  from this, to me, me, eevee, and yuma all look slightly scummy.

So in conclusion: the three scummy things I searched for: on-wagon/total ratio, variability in votes and the total vote count, yuma was the one constant in all 3 groups. 

I'm interested what everyone else might do with this data.  I think especially the votes by player section will come in handy in the future when looking for scumpairs (so not for another day or two.)  I may look into relationships there more tomorrow (IRL), and even more deeply tommorrow (game time).  Happy analysis and goodnight.

[ashersky]

I don't know what to do with all that information, but I do think that pushes AHoppy into townread territory.  I just don't see scum going through all that trouble just to arrive at very little in the way of conclusions except to mention himself in the scummy group.

[liopoil]

wow, I'll take a closer look at that later . I considered doing something like that once in S&N, but once I started I realized how much work it was going to be and how little info it would gather. anyway, agree with townread on ahoppy for that, same reason as ash. Also, apologies Ahoppy, I thought you were in more. I knew you were in 7 wonders and remembered something about agricola and nested quotes, and assumed you were in more than just those.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't know what to do with all that information, but I do think that pushes AHoppy into townread territory.  I just don't see scum going through all that trouble just to arrive at very little in the way of conclusions except to mention himself in the scummy group.

This was my immediate thought as well, I care about winning a lot, especially as scum, and man I wouldn't ever do that.

[spiritbears]

Very interesting. I'm inclined to agree with ash that once again ah has saved himself with a LONG but useful scumhunting post.  Do I like it that he keeps pushing it right to the edge, ...of course not. Would I rather he contribute more to the discussion (more posts morevotes!)..YES. but I think for now I have no appetite for a bunny lunch.

Ps robz, when you do post it's good stuff. Please please please post more!!! And please tell us why we are wrong about xerion. I understand where you're coming from on the other two. (Although Yuma made s good point about Mai not being able to respond to his immenent lynch). So how do you read x and whst do you think about his case? 

[mcmcsalot]

Yea robz what gives(just wondering why you find me scummy and xeiron towny)

I'm at want to lynch: liopoil, ash
Would lynch: Xeiron, mail-mi(still need to reread but his recent actions aren't doing him any good as sb pointed out)
Won't lynch: robz, spiritbears

[spiritbears]

I think the vote by player info is probably useful and will get more useful when we uncover scum (tonight!! (In Carl's voice athf).
The other data i look at and thibk msn If i incluse myslef i can see how 4 townies behaved. But then I think. But time and evee (who have very different stats than me) have totally different playing styles. So I'm not sure variability etc really mean anything.  I'm interested to see if you guys have s different or similar reaction.

[AHoppy]

I agree that it will become much more useful once we uncover scum.  I'll try to keep the list updated on my computer for that time.  I'm sorry the information was not all that useful, that really wasn't my intention.  I just felt like it would be good to have a record of the votes so we can refer to it as well.  Makes it harder to claim something happened that didn't when you have concrete evidence of what really happened 1000+ posts ago.  I wasn't sure what I would find from any of this, if anything, and now I know not a whole lot.

At the moment my top scum reads are (in order) xerion, mail-mi, lio, ash.  Still have eevee on the radar, but until he starts posting soon, it's hard to tell.  I put mail-mi below xerion because while I do see him as quite scummy, something about his play does remind me of sudgy, and we all know how that worked out...

[AHoppy]

P.S.: Bunny lunch

[xeiron]

The numbers after each section is just a count of the votes.  So now I then broke this down further (I have this on paper, not digital, so no copy-paste here).  I took each person and just looked at who else that person had voted for.  How do I use this information though?  well, what do I know?  I know 3 of these people are townies.  So, let's look at who voted for the townies

key:  [name] - [number of townies voted for]/[total number of different people voted for]

ash - 2/7
-> mm- 3/7
mc - 0/4
-> nk - 2/5
lio - 2/3
sb - 1/6
ah - 0/2
y - 2/3
mgp/x - 2/6
rob - 1/6
ev - 1/3
s - 1/4

I think this big data post from AHoppy is interesting.

Some points i think is worth taking note of.

• Mcmc have not voted for any IC. (neighter have AHoppy, but he have only voted two times.)
  Good scum-reader, or scum avoiding bad lynches?
  
• Yuma and Lio have only voted for town-members. (counting myself as town).
  I think this is scummy, but then I have a scum read on liopoil already so I might be reading this as more scummy that it is.
  
  

[yuma]

Whoosh!

I didn't get much of that. But we have found our new theorel! (For those of you who didn't know theorel was a player who played a while back and would often put together these types of posts with a lot of data that I really couldn't understand to the extent he would. Ultimately he would put these together and would really help with game theory and everything and was one of my favorite people to play with) And by that AHoppy I don't mean to diminish your own personality by comparing you to theorel, just that we have been missing a data orientated person since he left and it is nice to see someone come in and want to do that...

My take on the data is meh... Might be useful, might not be useful. I think the part that isn't taken into consideration is player styles in general. (and I don't really know how it can be taken into consideration).

But what I am wary of is people trying to use and manipulate the data w/o looking at the context to make themselves look townier or others look scummier and out of everyone who has commented on that part it is only xeiron who has tried to turn the data to his own advantage in the above post.

[Robz888]

I didn't say xeiron was scummy or not scummy. I din't say anything about him. In truth, my reads are weak, guys, even after re-reading. That tends to make me think lurkers are scum...

[spiritbears]

I didn't say xeiron was scummy or not scummy. I din't say anything about him. In truth, my reads are weak, guys, even after re-reading. That tends to make me think lurkers are scum...

Whether you think they are strong or weak is beyond the scope.... I think we are all I interested in your reads, 1) because of the sneaky way you were able to have reactions st the start of the game and 2) because you are the one person here without hidden motives that we can trust inherently. So please please please make the effort. Even a modest effort helps us. 

[Robz888]

I am making the effort, it's just that nothing is really jumping out of me, which makes me think lurkers are scum (because if they were posting more, things would be jumping out at me, presumably). This points me toward a mail-mi lynch.

[spiritbears]

Let me make this more direct robz.  Please tell us what you think of xerion and the case against him (which centers on the sham case he threw out against Lio, imo)..

[spiritbears]

I am making the effort, it's just that nothing is really jumping out of me, which makes me think lurkers are scum (because if they were posting more, things would be jumping out at me, presumably). This points me toward a mail-mi lynch.

I don't disagree.  Mai is a legitimate candidate, vla or otherwise. I'm not sure we can get consensus on that, but I'm certainly willing to join your wagon

[AHoppy]

I am making the effort, it's just that nothing is really jumping out of me, which makes me think lurkers are scum (because if they were posting more, things would be jumping out at me, presumably). This points me toward a mail-mi lynch.

I don't disagree.  Mai is a legitimate candidate, vla or otherwise. I'm not sure we can get consensus on that, but I'm certainly willing to join your wagon

Mail-mi is looking scummy to me too. I'm willing to jump on that wagon as well. If you guys say he looks scummy, even knowing his meta, then I will trust you. Previously, I was told my read was mostly based on his play style, but you're saying this is even more out of the ordinary. So I'm now willing to vote and lynch him. Vote: mail-mi

[Eevee]

Okay, first of all, apologies here as well. Disappearing like I did is very inconsiderate for fellow players and the mods, real life just got in the way. Sorry, I'm back now.

This post will also be a catch up post for myself, I don't know if it was that there weren't even that much new stuff (like 3 new pages or so), or what, but I don't remember things very well at all. Robz's posts about having read but still not having a clue resonate with me.

General point I thought of when reading ash's case on mcmc: If we think scum has manipulated the "who would I choose" lists (and I do, as I know I wasn't chosen and I was at the top of the list), we should look for possible scum teams within people who listed the same guys, right?


Someone was saying that mcmc wouldn't continue the tunnel like he has here if he was scum, and I got to say I really disagree. I remember myself back in RMM3, some townies did some things I legitimely found scummy, so as scum I was super happy to just pound on them, insisting we need to lynch these guys. I knew they were town (or not on my team anyways), but it was easy to appear convinced as the things I called them out on were things I actually thought of as scummy. I think that could have happened to mcmc as well, I don't think holding onto suspicion others dont share with you is a town trait. When rereading things to remember what was what in this game, I happened to notice mcmc not answering not one but TWO questions I asked from him in two separate posts, despite being active and interacting with other people all the time, even in between said questions. First was "how did the timeline with your why is robz town? - confusion" go exactly, the second was about him calling scum teams and if him somehow getting the information I'm town would change his view about other members of "our team" he was calling. I'm getting a feeling mcmc could be avoiding these questions because he is realizing he is getting tangled in a web of lies and wouldn't be able to get out if he got scrutinized more.

Like idk, I don't even remember everyone here and need to reread more, but I can't get around the fact mcmc built a bad fake case against me as scum in pirates, I immediately realized the case is full of holes and now he is here calling scum trios day three and I should take note of it.

Sucks that mail-mi is V/LA. My case on him is 100% what it used to be, as he hasn't rebutted it at all. I think that's a very good place to look for a lynch, but is it good enough given that he isn't here to claim? Robz, what do you think? Do you remember my case on him?

Yuma is seeming so towny to me. I know he is always the leader and it has fooled me before, but it feels there would be no talking at all unless he stepped up. Similarly ashersky's not being super bummed about no one posting feels scummy to me, as I imagine town ash would have possibly done the thing yuma did as well. But I'm a little confused about when exactly what happened as I wasn't reading the posts (or the lack of them) in real time, so it's hard to say.

Spirit still seems towny to me, nothing new there.

eHalcyon did a similar "a lot of work" thing to aHoppy in O's huge game with two scum teams (and I totally thought he was obvtown for it, he was scum), so I wouldn't extend as much town cred to him for that as others seem to. However, I still have the earlier townread on him for other reasons, and no reason to deviate from that.

I'm probably getting xeiron and liopoil here and xeiron and liopoil in my other game mixed up, need to reread a bit to form any kind of opinion on them.

[spiritbears]

I am making the effort, it's just that nothing is really jumping out of me, which makes me think lurkers are scum (because if they were posting more, things would be jumping out at me, presumably). This points me toward a mail-mi lynch.

I don't disagree.  Mai is a legitimate candidate, vla or otherwise. I'm not sure we can get consensus on that, but I'm certainly willing to join your wagon

Mail-mi is looking scummy to me too. I'm willing to jump on that wagon as well. If you guys say he looks scummy, even knowing his meta, then I will trust you. Previously, I was told my read was mostly based on his play style, but you're saying this is even more out of the ordinary. So I'm now willing to vote and lynch him. Vote: mail-mi

Well I don't know his Meta. My read is based 100% on his play this game. Hid weasly response to me kindof sealed the deal for me. But I'd like to hear from robz about how he thinks we should handle the vla problem beforeiI come over....

[Eevee]

xeiron has just 18 posts, so not very hard to reread. Man being behind in a game sucks though, this'll teach me not to go multiple days without at least checking the threads..

I find xeiron's early vote on me extremely fishy. It was like "well the two new guys no one thought would get picked were town, so the guy named the most must be scum, vote: eevee, why not, we'll see if this was right after he flips". Really absolves himself of all the responsibility there. Backs out when it doesn't get traction, saying "it was just a joke".

Total Mentions:
4: Eevee
3: liopoil
2: yuma, ashesrky, mail-mi, mgp, mcmc
1: robz, ahoppy, sb
0: nkirbit, sudgy

An eevee lynch looks quite good.
The fact that eevee tops this list could actually mean that eevee had the highest probability of becoming scum in this game.

We already know that the "most unobvious" according to this list, nkirbit and sudgy are not scum. I believe none in the next step, robz, ahoppy and sb are scum eihter. So the number of mentions clearly isn't that off.
Why not start lynching from the top?
vote: eevee

except that scum didn't necessarily tell the truth about who they would pick.

True.
Eevee could have been on 5 or 6 if they had.

And we will find out by lynching him.

Does look like he was serious about it before.

well, the rest of xeiron's play is pretty null to me in that he wasn't saying much. He pushes for liopoil very much, so I'll be reading him next. Making a read on liopoil will help me to decide on xeiron, but I think I might support this lynch over mail-mi for today just because mail-mi is vla.

[spiritbears]

Eevee I think I get most of what you're saying and where you're coming from. But I don't get how ash and Yuma are different reads for the (almost) exact same behavior. Seems to me if Yuma acting towny is town!Yuma, ash acting towny is probably town!ash.....