Rather than computing probabilities and drafting hypothesis this article is mainly about my personal experience after playing with numerous players across the globe.
Recently the discussion about Math is hot. In fact it is always one of the hottest topics around innovation from time to time. Is Mathematics that good which draws so much attention, or just being overrated?
And for me, here is my general idea about Mathematics:
1. Extremely versatile card. Mathematics is useful in a large variety of situations, varies in any age and can work with both a bulb lead or not;
2. Not the silver bullet to all the situations. Yes it maybe applied in a lot of scenario but it doesn't means that it is the best choice. In fact, often there are better options, but we just in fear that the chance of using Math to keep an age lead will be ruined so a lot of players tend to avoid those options;
3. Doesn't give you any score nor achievement nor hand. All it does is a universal age-up platform;
4. Hand consumption required actually makes it become such a infamous card, because it makes sharing it on your first action becomes a very viable play;
Right. I am not a fan of it. I would rather spam Almanac to age 10+ (which is way more viable if you are allowed to stay uninterrupted) rather than using Math. Actually as my games mainly around those in the level ~30s and ~40s, most experts are not addicted to it, too. Say ksasaki is a echo heavy player who would search and stack echo effects but you don't see him go Math often(somewhat related to his echo heavy play style, though), yaron and yuki are achievement oriented players who would prioritize scoring and achievements on their first place. You just don't see a Math spamming often.
Yet another thing is that, the chance of math-ing all the way to age 10 is not that easy. Say you skipped the age2 -> age3 step as I suggested, the chance of you age up from age3 to age10 without Math being covered is about 20.0%. So yes if you can reach there you do have a good chance to win, but the chance is only about 1 out of 5. It makes the whole thing like a gamble, too.
You may argue that we can stop at elsewhere where you can take full command of the game. Yes, you can, but even if you include those your chance is still nothing extraordinary, say you may win 5 or 6 out of 10 games with Math. A chance around 50% is nothing unusual, just like yet another card. The reason behind this, is that a scorer with a low entry requirement is rare throughout the game. Yes you can use Perspective to score 100+ points and you may use Lighting or Canning to catch a scoring lead in a sudden, but all these plays would require resources from you in other aspect (board, hand, etc). One of the major weakness of Math tech-ing is that you don't build a lot of resources for yourself, which you might find yourself in a tough situation even you got such a good scorer. This is also one of the reason that why some players tends to rely on age10 cards which are bounded with effects of 'draw and score a 10'.
Actually some of my technique with Math is that: I hide it in my hand. Since the dogma can be as effective in age 6/7 just like it is in age 2/3, you save it until there is no more tech-up possibilities. It takes a really high skill level to foresee such a trick though, since an unused age2 hand is really nothing special, it maybe a Canal Building or Mapmaking or whatsoever which you just won't meld it at all in some cases.
Don't wanna write too much in it, since I am just not a big fan of tech-up maniac.