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Author Topic: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?  (Read 5184 times)

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D Bo

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How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« on: March 27, 2013, 12:43:33 pm »
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So I'm not sure if there really is a correct answer for this one, but in the case where you want to increase deck size or buying power, is it important to start taking the extra coppers with your +buys immediately? This is primarily for those slog type games - I'm thinking specifically gardens and duke games. Personally if I'm thinking about pursuing one of these, I typically do not take the coppers until I've committed to "going green" because I feel like it broadcasts to my opponent what my strategy is, but I'm not sure that I'm correct in this. I'm sure it depends on a lot of factors, but I'm just curious to see how other people approach this.
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Awaclus

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2013, 12:56:39 pm »
+1

I start taking them as soon as I remember that they are actually useful in this game  ;D. Which is usually after a couple of Horse Traders plays without a copper buy.
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SirPeebles

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2013, 01:05:00 pm »
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Some slogs have a bit of an early game race, perhaps playing Sea Hags, and it might be worth holding off on a few early Coppers to improve cycling and win the Curse war.  I'm not sure of that though.  It may be that in the end game it's better to lose the curse war 4-6 but have 2 or 3 more Coppers.  But slogs that end on Duchies or Estates can have low point totals, so that Curse differential could be important.  Gardens and Duke slogs are higher scoring, so winning the Curse war may be less important.
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Jerk of All trades

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2013, 01:50:17 pm »
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buy them immediately in most IGG games.  For other strategies it depends on the enablers. But usually the sooner the better.  If the most expensive card you want to buy is 5$ think of coppers like how you normally think about silver.
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Robz888

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2013, 02:18:49 pm »
+2

So I'm not sure if there really is a correct answer for this one, but in the case where you want to increase deck size or buying power, is it important to start taking the extra coppers with your +buys immediately? This is primarily for those slog type games - I'm thinking specifically gardens and duke games. Personally if I'm thinking about pursuing one of these, I typically do not take the coppers until I've committed to "going green" because I feel like it broadcasts to my opponent what my strategy is, but I'm not sure that I'm correct in this. I'm sure it depends on a lot of factors, but I'm just curious to see how other people approach this.

I think you're incorrect. If you know you're going for a Duke or Gardens deck, I would start buying Coppers immediately. It matters what your price point is. With Gardens and Duke, your price point is $4 or $5--in which case, Coppers will tend to average your buying power toward $5, which is a good thing. They are also an extra card (which helps Gardens), and slow your deck down, meaning you cycle more slowly, which is also a good thing in decks like this.

With IGGs, it's a little trickier. Always taking the Coppers can really help even out your shuffles and make sure you win the IGG race, because you are more likely to hit $5. However, doing so will really slam on the breaks toward getting Provinces, and sometimes that's problematic. I guess if it's the sort of set where your deck can be quickly rebuilt after IGG, then taking the Coppers was a mistake that will only slow you down. But if you're planning to just win the IGG race and then drain Duchies (probably the more-likely result in an IGG game), take the Coppers from the beginning.
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D Bo

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2013, 02:31:53 pm »
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So I'm not sure if there really is a correct answer for this one, but in the case where you want to increase deck size or buying power, is it important to start taking the extra coppers with your +buys immediately? This is primarily for those slog type games - I'm thinking specifically gardens and duke games. Personally if I'm thinking about pursuing one of these, I typically do not take the coppers until I've committed to "going green" because I feel like it broadcasts to my opponent what my strategy is, but I'm not sure that I'm correct in this. I'm sure it depends on a lot of factors, but I'm just curious to see how other people approach this.

I think you're incorrect. If you know you're going for a Duke or Gardens deck, I would start buying Coppers immediately. It matters what your price point is. With Gardens and Duke, your price point is $4 or $5--in which case, Coppers will tend to average your buying power toward $5, which is a good thing. They are also an extra card (which helps Gardens), and slow your deck down, meaning you cycle more slowly, which is also a good thing in decks like this.

With IGGs, it's a little trickier. Always taking the Coppers can really help even out your shuffles and make sure you win the IGG race, because you are more likely to hit $5. However, doing so will really slam on the breaks toward getting Provinces, and sometimes that's problematic. I guess if it's the sort of set where your deck can be quickly rebuilt after IGG, then taking the Coppers was a mistake that will only slow you down. But if you're planning to just win the IGG race and then drain Duchies (probably the more-likely result in an IGG game), take the Coppers from the beginning.

The IGGs I totally understand - that's how I've always gone with that route. I'm guessing then that I'm worrying too much about showing my strategy then. I guess when I think about it, it's not really such a huge deal if they know I'm going for Dukes as long as my deck will be optimally positioned for it.
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blueblimp

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2013, 12:05:37 am »
+1

I believe IGG optimal strategy, in the mirror anyway, is to only take coppers when necessary to improve your buying power. IGG mirrors are won by spiking Provinces. Coppers will hurt your ability to do that.
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RD

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2013, 08:31:48 am »
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The better your opponent is, the more you can assume they already know that you're going for the slog, so you might as well take the Copper. I mean we're assuming the slog is unambiguously the correct option, right? (Either the best option from the beginning, or the best given your previous play?) If so, they probably see it too, so you're not really hiding much.

If not then the bigger question is whether you should commit to the slog right now or continue to keep your options open. I'd say that one extra Copper is very seldom worth losing that flexibility.

Of course if you can see from their previous play that your opponent doesn't anticipate the slog, even though they ought to by now, then sure let them keep making mistakes. A Copper isn't worth ruining that. You will likely beat that player anyway though, so if you're not sure whether they've wised up or not, just play solidly.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2013, 08:38:50 am by RD »
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DG

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2013, 08:46:59 am »
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If you only wanting coppers to maintain a deteriorating deck then buy them as your deck deteriorates. This rule of thumb seems to fit a number of simulations, including ill-gotten-gains.
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soulnet

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2013, 12:02:23 pm »
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I don't think hiding your strategy is really important, because your opponent has almost the same information as you to decide that for most of the game. It would be like hiding strategy at Chess (not as close, but you get the point).

About the benefit of having the Coppers, I would always take them for Gardens, Silk Road and Duke and never take them until the last reshuffle before the Curses are gone for Curse slogs (Sea Hag) or I may take them earlier if I feel I'm behind and want to be that I will even things out in the Curse departement with luke and get a couple of extra Coppers to even the field). But with Sea Hag alone I'd usually play Big Money and not slog and if you have many Silvers, you probably prefer not to have Coppers. Curse slogs other than IGG are rare.

In the common IGG slog (each player ends up with lots of Curses, IGGs and Duchies and 1 or 2 Provinces and maybe Estates) I agree to never take more than necessary until you are clearly not buying another Province, because IGG (and the couple of Silvers you may have) is your most important card, nad you want to see it more, and especially, see them together in one hand. More Coppers make the IGGs appear less often and also decrease variety, which is a bad thing (Province + Estate is better than Duchies, and maybe even Province + Silver if its early enough). With IGG + good TfB (especially Apprentice) you definitively don't want to take Coppers, because you can rebuild and get to regular Province game after the war (similar to what happens after most Amb wars).
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zporiri

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2013, 12:34:14 pm »
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I believe IGG optimal strategy, in the mirror anyway, is to only take coppers when necessary to improve your buying power. IGG mirrors are won by spiking Provinces. Coppers will hurt your ability to do that.

I disagree. IGG games are won by knowing when to stop buying IGG and when to start buying duchies. Watch a couple of WW's youtube videos in IGG games, and you'll notice that he wins almost every single time because he starts going for duchies first.
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soulnet

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2013, 02:26:01 pm »
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I disagree. IGG games are won by knowing when to stop buying IGG and when to start buying duchies. Watch a couple of WW's youtube videos in IGG games, and you'll notice that he wins almost every single time because he starts going for duchies first.

That's a different thing. Knowing when to switch for Duchies and when to take/non-take Coppers may help you win, and probably doing both optimally helps the most. Spiking Provinces is yet another thing, but also can be combined properly with switching for Duchies early. Maybe you want to argue that WW always takes the most Coppers?
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qmech

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2013, 03:34:01 pm »
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I'm firmly in the "only when necessary camp" for IGG.  Provinces are absolutely huge in IGG games.  I'm also not convinced by the argument that the Coppers help you hit $5 for IGGs early on, but I'm interested to see what the effect actually is.  I'll have a look at the numbers and post back later.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #13 on: March 30, 2013, 03:48:14 pm »
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I disagree. IGG games are won by knowing when to stop buying IGG and when to start buying duchies. Watch a couple of WW's youtube videos in IGG games, and you'll notice that he wins almost every single time because he starts going for duchies first.

That's a different thing. Knowing when to switch for Duchies and when to take/non-take Coppers may help you win, and probably doing both optimally helps the most. Spiking Provinces is yet another thing, but also can be combined properly with switching for Duchies early. Maybe you want to argue that WW always takes the most Coppers?
I guess that's what he's arguing. But I would argue the point against him.

Of course it depends on the board - IGG straight is rarely good, and the couple extra cards can have a big impact, as it usually doesn't matter too much whether you take that copper or not - unless one of those other cards swings it strongly one way or the other.

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2013, 04:26:22 pm »
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I'm firmly in the "only when necessary camp" for IGG.  Provinces are absolutely huge in IGG games.  I'm also not convinced by the argument that the Coppers help you hit $5 for IGGs early on, but I'm interested to see what the effect actually is.  I'll have a look at the numbers and post back later.

Prepare to not be surprised.

I started with a deck of 3 Estates, 3 Silver, 3 IGG and 3 Curses, and looked at how the probability of hitting $5 varied with the number of Coppers.  Extra Coppers increase the probability of hitting $5, but by a tiny amount.  If you're doing badly and only have 1 IGG, then the effect is bigger, but still tiny.  If you're doing well and only have 1 Curse, then you're better off without the Copper, but again the effect is tiny.

Code: [Select]
import random

def f(a, b, c):
    return sum(random.sample([0] * a + [1] * b + [2] * c, 5))
   
def p(a, b, c, target, trials):
    successes = len([1 for x in range(trials) if f(a, b, c) >= target])
    return float(successes) / trials

Code: [Select]
>>> [(n,p(6,n,6,5,1000000)) for n in range(7,20)]
[(7, 0.622567), (8, 0.624388), (9, 0.627019), (10, 0.629197), (11, 0.632767), (12, 0.633447), (13, 0.636945), (14, 0.637973), (15, 0.640396), (16, 0.643274), (17, 0.644651), (18, 0.647546), (19, 0.649089)]
>>> [(n,p(6,n,4,5,1000000)) for n in range(7,20)]
[(7, 0.471469), (8, 0.480975), (9, 0.489788), (10, 0.497502), (11, 0.503814), (12, 0.511377), (13, 0.51678), (14, 0.523693), (15, 0.529316), (16, 0.533357), (17, 0.539707), (18, 0.544197), (19, 0.549734)]
>>> [(n,p(4,n,6,5,1000000)) for n in range(7,20)]
[(7, 0.768645), (8, 0.766059), (9, 0.764694), (10, 0.763107), (11, 0.761719), (12, 0.760039), (13, 0.759821), (14, 0.759168), (15, 0.758182), (16, 0.758195), (17, 0.758584), (18, 0.758238), (19, 0.757828)]
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blueblimp

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2013, 11:18:54 pm »
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I believe IGG optimal strategy, in the mirror anyway, is to only take coppers when necessary to improve your buying power. IGG mirrors are won by spiking Provinces. Coppers will hurt your ability to do that.

I disagree. IGG games are won by knowing when to stop buying IGG and when to start buying duchies. Watch a couple of WW's youtube videos in IGG games, and you'll notice that he wins almost every single time because he starts going for duchies first.
As others said, what you're saying here doesn't really relate to coppers, but anyway, IGG mirrors received a fair bit of simulation development in this thread: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=625.50. There's some question about whether it helps to take unnecessary coppers towards the end of the mirror, but in any case, you definitely don't want to always take them.

I suspect that in IGG+X, because you want more plays of the X, it would favour keeping your deck smaller by not taking coppers you don't need to. But I haven't tested it.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2013, 12:17:28 pm »
0

I believe IGG optimal strategy, in the mirror anyway, is to only take coppers when necessary to improve your buying power. IGG mirrors are won by spiking Provinces. Coppers will hurt your ability to do that.

I disagree. IGG games are won by knowing when to stop buying IGG and when to start buying duchies. Watch a couple of WW's youtube videos in IGG games, and you'll notice that he wins almost every single time because he starts going for duchies first.
As others said, what you're saying here doesn't really relate to coppers, but anyway, IGG mirrors received a fair bit of simulation development in this thread: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=625.50. There's some question about whether it helps to take unnecessary coppers towards the end of the mirror, but in any case, you definitely don't want to always take them.

I suspect that in IGG+X, because you want more plays of the X, it would favour keeping your deck smaller by not taking coppers you don't need to. But I haven't tested it.
Generally this is true, but it depends on the X. Keep in mind that sometimes, taking the coppers means you can buy more Xs.

soulnet

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2013, 02:00:43 pm »
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Generally this is true, but it depends on the X. Keep in mind that sometimes, taking the coppers means you can buy more Xs.

"Playing key cards more often is usually better then buying another copy."

What examples of X would make you want to take more Coppers to buy more Xs? I can only think of alt-VP, but its not Xs you want to "play".
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WanderingWinder

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Re: How Early Do You Start Taking Those Extra Coppers?
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2013, 02:08:59 pm »
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Well, the general point I am making is that there is some proportion of X you want in your deck, ideally, maybe 12% of your cards or something (depends on the card of course). Now, in some sense, you end up with lower than that a lot, because you don't want too many terminals. But you can also pick up the second one (or third, or whatever) and be on the high side, which is something people don't do so much, but in this case, taking the coppers dilutes you to not be too far too high either.

Other than this, there are some particular cards that like copper qua copper - coppersmith, apothecary, counting house.
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