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[palangus]

People talking about the relative values of achievements got me wondering, so here's some quick and dirty calculations.
Data taken from the first 3 weeks of march, there will be some errors as I didn't bother figuring out how to exclude Echoes and solitaire games, but hopefully minor.
Total number of games was 13108.

Probability a player wins given they achieve a particular achievement [p = (# games where winner has X)/(# games where winner or loser has X)]:


Same data, grouped into 4 categories:


Which achievement the winner took first:

[palangus]

Probability of winning without a particular achievement: [p = (# in which winner didn't achieve X)/(# of games)]

[ednever]

Thanks!

This is really interesting. We are starting to move down the analytics route that Dominion has had for a long time.

Some related questions that came up when I read this:

1- win % based on getting the FIRST achievement
2- expansion on 1: win % based on achievement situation (ie. I have 3 achievement, you have 4, what is the prob of each of us winning?)
3- win based on tech: win % based on both players position on top tech on board
4- win based on icons: win % based on domination in different icons vs other player
5- factor in turns
6- combine two or more of the above

This is similar to the card ratio analysis done for Dominion, but it could provide some good rules of thumb: knowing that everything is an edge case, on average, which player is in a better position to win:

P1- 3 achievements, level 3 tech, 1 icon domination
P2- 0 achievements, level 6 tech, 4 icon domination

Etc.

It would be nice to start applying data to some of the intuition people are developing.

Ed