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Author Topic: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit  (Read 13276 times)

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rspeer

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Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« on: March 25, 2013, 03:53:50 am »
+9

I'm looking into doing stuff with the Innovation logs. Many interesting statistics are going to require parsing the game logs and reconstructing the game state, such as how likely you are to win based on your number of achievements, current tech difference, particular cards melded, and so on. This is of course daunting. Has anyone made a start on it? Is your code available?

On the other hand, I can get something interesting by just parsing the last line of each log: a breakdown of the reasons for winning (or at least for the game ending).

I've retrieved 27736 games. Of those:
  • 15412 (55.6%) of them were won by achievements.
  • 4586 (15.5%) were won by attrition (because all but one player resigned).
  • 2567 (9.3%) were won by score after trying to draw an 11.
  • 2252 (8.1%) ended with all players resigning. I guess that might tend to happen in solitaire.
  • 741 (2.7%) were won by Bioengineering.
  • 657 (2.4%) were won by Globalization.
  • 629 (2.3%) were won by Self Service.
  • 545 (2.0%) were won by Empiricism.
  • 124 (0.44%) were won by Collaboration.
  • 84 (0.30%) were won by AI.
  • Only 11 games (0.040%) were exact ties on score and achievements.

I skipped over Echoes-specific win conditions in that list to make it clearer and minimize the "what is this I don't even" factor, but here are those:
  • 67 wins by Social Networking
  • 22 wins by Puzzle Cube
  • 16 wins by Paper beating Rock
  • 11 wins by Human Genome
  • 6 wins by Saxophone
  • 5 wins by Radio Telescope
  • 2 wins by Rock beating Scissors
  • Nobody has ever won by Sudoku.
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BitTorrent

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2013, 04:40:19 am »
0

16 wins by Paper beating Rock <---
5 wins by Radio Telescope <--- 
2 wins by Rock beating Scissors <---

Yay one of each of these are done by me  :P

15412 (55.6%) of them were won by achievements.
2567 (9.3%) were won by score after trying to draw an 11.

So basically we have 6 out of 7 games ended by achievements. Great piece of information, which means that Math-teching to 11 is not that feasible.  :P
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elglin1982

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2013, 07:49:34 am »
0

Excluding all the resignations (since it's impossible to determine the reason), ties and echoes cards, we have:
Achievements: 74,2% (almost 3 of 4)
Score: 12,4%
Card-specific: 13,4%, namely:
Bioengineering: 3,6%
Globalization: 3,2%
Self Service: 3,0%
Empiricism: 2,6%
Collaboration: 0,6%
A.I.: 0,4%
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teasel

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2013, 07:50:34 am »
0

as far as echoes game go,i won 2 by social network,1 by puzzle cube and 1 by human genome

i came really close to winning a game by sudoku but unfortunately the card that would have give me the ninth different bonus value covered up sudoku thus covering sudoku 11 bonus
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marco2012

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2013, 10:20:16 am »
0

Nice piece of information

Assuming all solitaire game is excluded...... most of the time, achievement is the main way to win

p.s. I have a new aim now..... win by Sudoku
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eHalcyon

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2013, 10:36:07 am »
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Is there no way to win by scissors beating paper?
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Drab Emordnilap

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2013, 11:13:41 am »
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Is there no way to win by scissors beating paper?

That's correct -- scissors just scores paper.
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rrenaud

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2013, 11:51:11 am »
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I haven't really done any work on parsing the logs.  I've been playing around with writing a live extension to make the UI a bit friendlier.

It might be a decent idea to implement the parser/stats/game state manipulation stuff in JS/coffeescript so that it can be combined with browser extension for an AI.
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marco2012

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2013, 08:26:33 pm »
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One question: Any case of 'Rock Beats Scissors'?
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popsofctown

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2013, 08:47:36 pm »
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Proof that Sudoku is impossible
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BitTorrent

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2013, 09:43:26 pm »
0

Proof that Sudoku is impossible

It might be possible but simply not applicable since you already win by many other ways when you are tucking massive echo cards and splaying all the colors in-order to make way for Sudoku. Special achievements will give you the win beforehand  :-\
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teasel

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2013, 09:49:15 pm »
0

Proof that Sudoku is impossible

It might be possible but simply not applicable since you already win by many other ways when you are tucking massive echo cards and splaying all the colors in-order to make way for Sudoku. Special achievements will give you the win beforehand  :-\

yep,not to mention that when you have sudoku it's easy to call 10,pull off human genome/puzzle cube/social network and win through one of those
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Hideyoshi

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2013, 03:11:42 am »
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I wonder there are so many people won by social networking. I think using puzzle cube and human genome were easier.

My next aim: win by sudoku

yep,not to mention that when you have sudoku it's easy to call 10,pull off human genome/puzzle cube/social network and win through one of those

Not really. The process of sudoku was actually "meld a card  -> win if you have 9 different bonus -> execute the dogma of the melded card".
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teasel

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2013, 07:14:02 am »
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yeah i mean,it's easier to usualy hunt for one of those card than to use sudoku effect to hunt for the remaining bonus value's
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2013, 11:17:06 am »
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Won by Bio and Self Service today. :)
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Kahryl

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2013, 01:29:10 pm »
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I'm surprised a win by score after drawing >10 is so much rarer than wins by achievements.
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ksasaki

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2013, 02:43:57 pm »
0

this is great stuff!  would it be possible to do personalized statistics, (like just for me haha?). 
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Razzishi

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2013, 06:38:42 pm »
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I'm surprised a win by score after drawing >10 is so much rarer than wins by achievements.

I'm not.  I'll venture to say most of my games end before an 8 is melded, and that the distribution of the wins feels roughly along the lines of what I've experienced.
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greatexpectations

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #18 on: March 27, 2013, 07:18:48 pm »
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I'm surprised a win by score after drawing >10 is so much rarer than wins by achievements.

i didn't even know this was a game ending condition until past my 40th game.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2013, 10:58:49 pm »
+1

I'm surprised a win by score after drawing >10 is so much rarer than wins by achievements.

i didn't even know this was a game ending condition until past my 40th game.

This probably contributes to its infrequency. If people don't know it's a game end condition, they don't really go for it.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2013, 11:39:14 pm »
+5

Winning on score feels like 3-piling to me.
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antony

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2013, 07:59:48 pm »
+1

I'm looking into doing stuff with the Innovation logs. Many interesting statistics are going to require parsing the game logs and reconstructing the game state, such as how likely you are to win based on your number of achievements, current tech difference, particular cards melded, and so on. This is of course daunting. Has anyone made a start on it? Is your code available?
I wrote this code when the logs didn't include the "long header", so it has to be modified to take care of the new log format I think.
https://github.com/anntzer/innovation-stats
To parse a game log, run
Code: [Select]
python innovation_parser.py <logfile>.htmlRequires Python3 but probably easy to make it work with Python 2.
This does not reconstruct the game state (because the log info is actually not sufficient for that right now, I believe) but outputs a list of "events" (basically by matching against a huge regexp), from which you can e.g. get the running scores or the running achievement count.
I would be happy to work more on that... some day.
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ycz6

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2013, 04:19:28 am »
0

Winning on score feels like 3-piling to me.
Holy crap, this is so correct.
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alcaras

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2013, 10:36:58 am »
+1

I'd be interested in seeing which cards' dogmas are applied most.

palangus

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Re: Innovation stats: the low-hanging fruit
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2013, 12:55:44 pm »
+6

Your wish is my command. Probably would be more interesting broken out by age, may do that later.
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