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Author Topic: How would you open on this board? #2  (Read 11105 times)

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HiveMindEmulator

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How would you open on this board? #2
« on: March 02, 2013, 02:34:27 pm »
+1

Coppersmith, Feast, Horse Traders, Moneylender, Mountebank, Navigator, Nomad Camp, Quarry, Sea Hag, and Workshop

PLEASE VOTE BEFORE READING THE REST OF THE THREAD!

I want the results to reflect how people would play this kingdom if they were to see it in a game right now. I dont want the results of the poll to be a groupthink. Feel free to discuss in the rest of the thread, and Im sure we can come to a consensus there :)

Bonus discussion:
1. Do things change if you're player 2?
2. What (minor) changes to the kingdom change the answer?

This is inspired by this thread. This kingdom is much less complex, but I think there's enough to make an meaningful discussion. Plus I have some ulterior motives for posting this.
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Axxle

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2013, 02:36:50 pm »
+10

Plus I have some ulterior motives for posting this.
How long is your opponent going to wait before forcing you to resign?
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Jiriki

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2013, 02:44:03 pm »
+1

Sea Hag.

As there is no trashing, and very weak filtering in the kingdom winning or at least splitting the curses is a key to victory. Would likely follow up with silver and then a navigator with my next 4 to speed up cycling by discarding sets of 5 that do not have the Hag in them.
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enfynet

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2013, 02:51:10 pm »
0

Is it bad that I own all the sets and still had to look up how much half of those cost?
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Destierro

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2013, 04:00:08 pm »
0

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM
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Rabid

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2013, 04:02:32 pm »
0

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM

Isn't it 40%?
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enfynet

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2013, 04:05:10 pm »
+3

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM
I didn't even notice that Mountebank was in the Kingdom... Neat...
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clb

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2013, 04:17:40 pm »
0

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM

Is a 60% (or 40?) chance of Mountebank second turn significantly better than a guaranteed MB on T3/4(5?). If you miss, you are worse off. If you hit, you are one copper ahead of just a Hag. Feast->MB is only a little slower than a Hag falling into your third hand. As P1 do you assume you are winning and play conservatively (Feast or Hag) or do you try to leverage your advantage by going for the riskier opening with NC?
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2013, 04:20:34 pm »
+1

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM

Ignoring another curse-giver in a Mountebank game is a good way to lose the curse split. People seem to mistakenly conclude that because Mountebank is the best at junking, that it's the best junker in the head-to-head. The moat effect means that the best play is often to mix attackers.
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dondon151

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2013, 04:22:12 pm »
0

The thing with Mountebank is that you will still probably end up losing the Curse split to Sea Hag; however, going Sea Hag into Mountebanks is also not very good because the Mountebank will miss often and not deal out very many Curses on its own anyway.

EDIT: ninja'd by Mic, kind of.
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heron

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2013, 04:22:26 pm »
0

I would definitely go sea hag; better reliable cursing, copper is not very painful this game, and there's only a 40% chance of a T2 mountebank.
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Robz888

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2013, 04:27:14 pm »
0

Gotta be the Hag. Anything else, and you are going to end up brutalized by Curses.
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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2013, 05:29:02 pm »
+1

I can see opening Horse Traders, but opening Hag feels more comfortable and that's what I would do.
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eHalcyon

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2013, 05:36:29 pm »
0

I would definitely go sea hag; better reliable cursing, copper is not very painful this game, and there's only a 40% chance of a T2 mountebank.


Agreed. Note that there is counterplay to the copper junking from Mountebank in Moneylender and Coppersmith.   
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DG

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2013, 07:07:07 pm »
+4

I've put the simulator to work and the difference between the best two openings at about most 5%, less than can be gained by good duchy/estate buying. First player advantage is 15-20%.

Simulations generally show sea hags and mountebanks to be pretty even, depending upon the kingdom. The horse traders here assist the mountebank more in the early game and the sea hag more in the end game.
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Morgrim7

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2013, 10:05:27 pm »
+1

Hag, man.
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meandering mercury

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2013, 01:10:45 am »
+1

SEA HAG/SILVER: would reasonably expect to play Sea Hag on t3 or t4, and buy more silvers on both t3 and t4. (well, that might be slightly optimistic, but let's just use that as the baseline) Hag could miss the reshuffle and turn up on t5; chances are 2/12 = 16%.

End of t4: 7 copper, 3 estate, 3 silvers, 1 Sea Hag.

SILVER/SILVER INTO MOUNTEBANK: would reasonably expect to buy Mountebank on one of t3 or t4, and buy another silver on the other turn. According to the old front page post, you have an 8.8% of not reaching $5 on t3 and t4. As P1, an opponent's Sea Hag would not change these probabilities. As P2, your chances of not reaching $5 are worse if the opponent plays Sea Hag on their t3.

End of t4: 7 copper, 3 estate, 3 silvers, 1 Mountebank, 1 curse from opponent's Sea Hag

Both strategies give you one curser and one "dead card" (if you count Sea Hag as a dead card, which it kind of is in terms of your own deck's production). The Mountebank deck has slightly better economy because the Mountebank acts as an extra silver. The added copper junking hurts some, but the moat effect is also not so great for Mountebank.

Overall, not as much difference as you might first imagine between the two, as the simulator shows.

I would add that to DG's post and suggest that the more important questions might lie in the endgame. What are good duchy/estate/even province buying rules when you have 5 curses in your deck? We know the rules of thumb for standard BM games (buy duchies with 5 provinces left, maybe take a gold with $8 if it's real early but otherwise go straight for provinces) but I don't have a feel for how these rules change with lots of dead cards.

Should you build for longer and add more golds/silvers to your deck before springing for provinces? It seems reasonable but your cycling would also be slower because of the bloatedness of your deck. When should you buy duchies if you find yourself with $6? What about with $5?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2013, 02:22:02 am by meandering mercury »
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blueblimp

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2013, 02:34:07 am »
0

Both Sea Hag and HT->Mountebank seem plausible. I'd prefer Sea Hag, but I'm not confident, because Mountebank is actually a useful card for you (since it's a terminal Silver) whereas Sea Hag is dead once it's not giving curses.
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CPFB

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2013, 08:53:34 am »
0

Another argument for sea hag > mountebank is that Horse Traders reaction will be in effect all game against mountebank and only until the curses run out vs. sea hag.

Additionally, you could get a useful card with the HT card from mountebank whereas you're just going to draw the curse when it's activated vs. sea hag.

Yes, I voted for HT -> mountebank originally. :p
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TrojH

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2013, 10:24:54 am »
+1

Given that a super-expert posted this, the obvious answer has to be the wrong one.

I admit, I voted Sea Hag like the rest of the group. So the right answer is probably Horse Traders, with a Mountebank purchase on the second pass through the deck. After all, Horse Traders will make good use of the inevitable curses that will end up in your deck.
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Jiriki

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2013, 01:27:00 pm »
0

Nomad Camp.

Why? It allows for a turn 2 mountebank 60% of the time, and mountebank is leaps ahead of sea hag. After that, it's just Mountebank BM

Only 40% of the time. Your deck is CCCEE when you buy the NC, which means a 60% chance a copper is on the bottom. Meaning only 40% chance you draw CCCE with the NC on turn 2.
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GiB

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2013, 11:42:50 am »
0

Given that a super-expert posted this, the obvious answer has to be the wrong one.

Knowing this, I would open Workshop/Workshop and go for a Feast->Duchy rush, with Horse traders as support.
(a few games later)
...hey, why do I kep losing with this strategy ? :(

(NB : I voted Sea Hag. If the opponent mirrors I'll get a second Hag then a Navigator (or perhaps Horse Traders), if he goes for Mountebank I'll get a Moneylender, then whichever curser I can buy next.
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ehunt

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2013, 11:59:05 am »
0

i voted horse traders. it's a good counter to sea hag (the discard gives you a use for that curse and makes a gold buy quite likely) and it virtually guarantees mountebank on the second shuffle. i could be wrong though.

the nomad camp odds that were posted are definitely wrong. your odds are 40%. The bottom 6 cards of your deck are four coppers and two estates. If a copper is on the bottom you will have 4 in your next hand, and if an estate is on the bottom you will have 5. This has been discussed in another thread I think.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2013, 12:00:20 pm by ehunt »
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platykurtic

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2013, 12:48:33 pm »
+1

Looks to me like the sort of slog where no one's going to ever buy a Province. Everyone's getting bogged down with Curses, and there's no good engine to draw past them or get rid of them. Given that Horse Traders makes it easy to hit 5$, or 4$ with two buys, this one's probably ending with Curses, Duchies, and Estates running out. In that sort of deck, Copper is good; I'd much rather have a Copper with my Curse to help balance it out. Once the Curses are out I wouldn't even discard a Curse to block Mountebank, and I'd be getting Coppers with my extra HT buys the whole time.

In conclusion, I'd definitely open Sea Hag/Silver, maybe a second SH, then grab a few HT and go for green (with a few silver and cooper buys in there). This is more or less the worst possible deck for Mountebank
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Asklepios

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Re: How would you open on this board? #2
« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2013, 04:13:55 am »
0

I agree with Sea Hag on $4

To expand this conversation, how would you open on $5? I know that Mountebank is probably one of the best $5 openings out there, but part of me wonders if Sea Hag is better even at $5.
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