No, it's pretty uncommon...
Player 1 basically has to get very unlucky twice to lose the FG split 6/4, and it has to be something really bad like Spice Merchant falling to turn 5 and not being able to make $4 for a double FG buy.
If both players open SM/FG:
- Both players will have 1 FG after turn 2
- Assuming P2 gets and ideal reshuffle and P1's SM falls to turn 5, P1 will have 3 FGs and P2 will have 4 FGs after turn 4
On turn 5, if P2's SM fails to make $4 and 2 buys, then he'll only get 4 FGs, otherwise he'll get 5 and the split will be even. In order for P2 to actually win the split, then, he has to play a turn 5 SM that makes $4 and 2 buys to buy the 2 remaining FG for a 4-6 split. Otherwise P2 will only buy his 5th FG on turn 5 and P1 can buy his 5th FG on turn 6.
Basically what needs to happen is that P1's Spice Merchant fails make $4 on the reshuffle and he does not draw it on turn 5. P2 must draw his Spice Merchant on the reshuffle and on turn 5, in addition to making $4 both times. This is pretty rare. Someone more adept at maths than I can chug out the probabilities, but I wouldn't be surprised if it were below 10%.
In ed's game, what his opponent should have done is to play SM for cards on turn 4 because he knows that he can't buy 2 FG that turn. That maximizes the chance of him drawing his SM on turn 5 to salvage the split.
