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[catsclaw]

Bank, Colony, Courtyard, Grand Market, Horn of Plenty, Hunting Party, Inn, Oasis, Platinum, Stables, Upgrade, and Witch

Your opponent starts with 5 coins and buys Witch.  You open 4 coins.  What's your plan?  What do you figure your chances of winning are?

[DWetzel]

Probably Silver/Silver, try to get to a Witch and a couple Upgrades to not get totally blown up by curses, and probably not very good, in the 30% range

[eHalcyon]

Agreed -- just try to get Witch early and hope they have some bad shuffle luck and you have some good shuffle luck.

I'm not sure whether it would be better to spam Upgrades into GM or to set up HoP to gain them.  HoP should be great on this board though -- Hunting Party to grab the uniques, Stables for additional draw, plenty of non-terminals and even a village (Inn).

Probably Upgrade, just to thin the deck and keep Curses down.

[dondon151]

I would open Silver/Oasis and go for Witch on the first $5, Upgrade on the second, then HP from there on out until the deck is slim enough that HoPs can get GMs. On sub-$5 I would probably get more Oases for cycling and will probably Upgrade Estate -> Oasis preferentially (maybe I would consider a second Silver).

I don't think that going hard on the GMs is too beneficial, though; it's easy enough to get HoPs to be worth $11 and that sort of megaturn should be faster.

[eHalcyon]

I would open Silver/Oasis and go for Witch on the first $5, Upgrade on the second, then HP from there on out until the deck is slim enough that HoPs can get GMs. On sub-$5 I would probably get more Oases for cycling and will probably Upgrade Estate -> Oasis preferentially (maybe I would consider a second Silver).

I don't think that going hard on the GMs is too beneficial, though; it's easy enough to get HoPs to be worth $11 and that sort of megaturn should be faster.

If you are going for a HoP megaturn, you'd need a bunch of Stables for draw, right?  HP isn't likely to draw many HoPs together.

[dondon151]

I was not going to detail every little bit of this strategy. Obviously HP >>> Stables earlier on when you want to play key cards more. Stables should only be coming into play once you're gaining them with HoPs.

I apologize for being snarky but I clearly didn't specify exactly which 11 cards I thought would contribute to HoP's worth (because that would be a waste of time; if I say that you can get HoPs to be worth $11, you don't say "which 11?") and I expected you to infer that, given the cards on the board, obviously some of the ones which I didn't explicitly mention could be used for card draw in an HoP deck.

[eHalcyon]

Snark deserved.  I sort of already said it in my own thoughts too.