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Author Topic: Clock Probability  (Read 3193 times)

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teasel

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Clock Probability
« on: March 14, 2013, 12:22:14 pm »
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assuming you only draw from the base deck

- Probability that you draw 0 clock is of 0.8333333333333334
- Probability that you draw 1 clock is of 7.5
- Probability that you draw 2 clock is of 12.5
- Probability that you draw 3 clock is of 20.833333333333332
- Probability that you draw 4 clock is of 22.5
- Probability that you draw 5 clock is of 17.5
- Probability that you draw 6 clock is of 12.5
- Probability that you draw 7 clock is of 4.166666666666667
- Probability that you draw 8 clock is of 1.6666666666666667

basicaly clock works best against 3,4 and 5,thus giving you odds of at least 60% when these 3 numbers are present,that increase to 72% if 2 is present too and tops at 85% when you add 6 to the mix,of course this also assume this is your first draw as your odds change when you eliminate 3 cards and have to draw from a pool of 7 possible card's

just know that there are 2 cards with 3 clocks (which is why it's impossible to draw 9 clock) 3 with 0 clock,2 with 2 clock and 3 card with 1 clock,so eliminating the card with 3 clock gives you better odd for lower numbers and eliminating card with no clock gives you better odds at higher numbers

EDIT: counting drawing 2 base card and 1 blue card

- Probability that you draw 0 clock is of 4.0
- Probability that you draw 1 clock is of 12.0
- Probability that you draw 2 clock is of 14.666666666666666
- Probability that you draw 3 clock is of 24.0
- Probability that you draw 4 clock is of 17.333333333333332
- Probability that you draw 5 clock is of 16.0
- Probability that you draw 6 clock is of 7.555555555555555
- Probability that you draw 7 clock is of 3.5555555555555554
- Probability that you draw 8 clock is of 0.8888888888888888

expansion set has 4 card with 2 clock and 6 card with 0 clock thus making the odd of drawing lower number higher although 3 and 4 are still the most probable one
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 02:14:37 pm by teasel »
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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2013, 12:40:46 pm »
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I have no idea what you are talking about.
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theory

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2013, 12:50:11 pm »
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Usually when people talk about things in Innovation I do not understand, I assume it involves Echoes.  In this case, I think there is some Echoes card that depends on # of clocks on a randomly-drawn 10.
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teasel

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2013, 12:51:32 pm »
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one of the card of echoes of the past is called clock,and has the following dogma

- draw 3 cards from the 10 deck,transfer all the card equal to the number of clock icon on those 3 card from your opponent hand and score pile to your score pile

the list above is how many chance you have to draw a certain number of clock icons when you draw 3 random 10 deck cards

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Thisisnotasmile

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2013, 12:57:09 pm »
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Ah okay. Don't think I've seen that one in a game, what age is it from?
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teasel

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2013, 01:04:59 pm »
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4
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BitTorrent

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2013, 01:21:17 pm »
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Do appreciate your work, but at least you should have separated this into 2 cases:

1. your opponent have no hand/no base hand, which results in drawing 2 base cards and 1 echo card;

2. your opponent have an echo hand, which results in drawing 3 base cards(I assume this is the case you are talking about but I can't sure),

Since you are playing with Clock, you must be playing echoes  8)
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Drab Emordnilap

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2013, 01:28:51 pm »
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assuming you only draw from the base deck
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teasel

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Re: Clock Probability
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2013, 01:46:43 pm »
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Do appreciate your work, but at least you should have separated this into 2 cases:

1. your opponent have no hand/no base hand, which results in drawing 2 base cards and 1 echo card;

2. your opponent have an echo hand, which results in drawing 3 base cards(I assume this is the case you are talking about but I can't sure),

Since you are playing with Clock, you must be playing echoes  8)

yeah it was pretty hard to calculate considering drawing 3 base,if i have to count echo cards too it becomes really hard,though i might try my hand at it later
EDIT: there you go 8)
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 02:13:25 pm by teasel »
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