There has been lots of talk about how Chapel is a card that completely changes the game because of how fast it makes your deck. Don't get me wrong, I believe it. I've played a couple of games with Chapel and you just don't have bad turns when you use that card.
However, in running lots of simulations, I came across the following statistic:
BM alone buys its fourth province at turn 16-17
BM + Smithy buys its fourth province at turn 15-16
BM + Chapel buys its fourth province at turn 15-16
I can think of three explanations for this:
1. Chapel is not as awesome as all of the people (who are smarter than me) claim that it is, and Smithy is just as good. Not likely, but that's what the numbers suggest with no context.
2. BM + Chapel + Standard trashing is not the best way to play Chapel. Does the benefit of Chapel require the presence of other action cards whose power gets magnified by having a thin deck? Perhaps this benefit can create decks that buy their fourth province before turn 14?
3. UR DOIN IT RONG. I've messed something up in the simulation and my numbers are incorrect.
Looking around, all of the current literature focuses on convincing people that trashing your ten starting cards is a good idea. I completely agree. However, that literature states that Chapel is orders of magnitude better than Smithy, and my dense mind is unable to understand how to fully leverage that benefit to get the same result. Perhaps an article along the lines of "OK, I have a Chapel deck. Now what?" would be helpful?