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[Robz888]

Robz, there is definatly a fair chance of there bieng another MU. and if there is another MU I feel very good about it being you.

I think there's like zero chance of the MU team having three people including a Bomb, and the maquis team having two people. Bomb is a role that makes perfect sense for a smaller scum team to get.

Yuma, you can go ahead and vote. I'll make a solid rule actually:

Anyone can vote all they want, as long as they don't ever put anyone at two votes, or L-1, unless the only person who could quickhammer is me.

I think this makes it so that scum can never quickhammer. Therefore I don't think I'm going to vote until I hammer.

Part of the reason that I was saying we shouldn't worry about Jimmmmm is related to this. We need everyone except the lynchee to agree. I was fairly sure that yuma and robz were going to have solid "scumreads" on each other, and leave their votes parked on each other.

Blah, liopoil, you are really frustrating me. I'm not convinced yuma is scum. I'm really not sure whether it's him or Jimm. I'm quite worried Jimm has pulled one over on us. All I know is that you will lose this game for town if you lynch me. I promise you lio. And it's frustrating for me, it's frustrating that we are in this position, because I don't know you as well as I know other peop,e, and I feel like if you were Eevee, or theorel, or ashersky, you would be agreeing with me here. Which again goes back to the point that killing ash instead of you was a huge, gaping, fatal flaw in my strategy if I were scum.

[Robz888]

I mean really it's a hard call, because I'm not even sure which of yuma/jimm is the scum. And the lack of 2 kills on night, uh, 4, makes me look bad. Also, that mcmc was scum and I pretty much saved him on Day 2. I think other evidence--what we know about the composition of the teams, ash dying last night--points to someone other than me. But I couldn't even say for sure who that is. Yuma just feels scummier to me at this point for making some mistakes in his arguments, which read to me like hes trying to throw whatever he can at me and see what sticks; he's not actually interested in scum-hunting, he just wants a lynch other than him so he can win.

[yuma]

I haven't looked closely at the possibility of me being maquis because I am not maquis. I haven't addressed the accusation that I am a maquis because there haven't been any. I am self-aware that the case that I am MU is better than the case that I am maquis (although I have voted to lynch members of both teams, but a smart partner would have had to, sure).

If you do think I'm maquis, I would argue that I was most directly responsible for shifting the Day 3 lynch to Glooble instead of liopoil. I re-read them both and settled, narrowly, on Glooble. The town then followed my lead and we lynched maquis Glooble. Hopefully this is at least some evidence that I am not maquis.

Is that a better argument than the one I have? The one where I was the real catalyst for actually creating, presenting and pushing for a Glooble lynch Day3 when there were a bunch of other options?

I don't think the town followed your lead. They followed my lead, they followed theorel's lead. You just jumped on toward the end.

The order of votes Day3 was as such:
ashersky
yuma
theorel
mcmc (who later unvoted and switched to lio)
yuma again
liopoil
robz
dsell

Your vote came on glooble at a point where lio had 3 votes in Jimmmm, mcmc and Glooble (although you were on lio at that time as well). But at that time ashersky, yuma and themunch (and maybe others) had all expressed that they would not be voting for lio at that time. So at least from my view point it looked much more likely that glooble would be lynched over lio. Glooble had very little townie read support, whereas lio had quite a bit.

So I think it is a huge exaggeration to say that you were the most directly responsible for Glooble's lynch and to say that town followed your lead. I would go as far to call it an out-right lie.

and no I haven't present a case on whether or not you could be marquis. But I will tonight.

[Robz888]

I don't think it's an out-right lie, although perhaps I understated your involvement in Glooble getting picked. But at the time I re-read lio and Glooble to decide who I should vote for, here was the vote count:

Unofficial Vote Count

Glooble (4): ashersky, theorel, yuma. liopoil {L-2}
Robz888 (1): TheMunch
liopoil (4): Robz888, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot, glooble {L-2}
TheMunch (1): Dsell

Not Voting (0):

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

It was deadlocked, with only Munch and Dsell not voting. Dsell is kind of a useless vote, probably would have followed the crowd, since he wasn't participating too much. Munch obviously would have preferred to vote for liopoil, since he is scum with Glooble.

At this point, I re-read them, and decided to go for Glooble. Had I not done so, I don't think it's clear Glooble would have been lynched.

But as you say, you were very anti-Glooble. Okay, I should weigh this, perhaps it means I should lean toward lynching Jimm. Who is not on the Glooble wagon at this point, fwiw.

[liopoil]

when you were making your case on me you said I only voted glooble when it was clear that he was going to be lynched.

[Robz888]

when you were making your case on me you said I only voted glooble when it was clear that he was going to be lynched.

What I meant was you only voted for him when it was clear it was going to be one or the other of you.

[Robz888]

I just re-read Jimm for his interactions with Glooble/Munch. They are sparse. He is a critical supporter of the lio-instead-of-glooble campaign.

[Robz888]

Please take a look and see if you think it's possible. I certainly do.

[liopoil]

I'm still V/LA until tommorow afternoon. kooshie says she will hammer today in newbie mafia, my only other game. So that game will be either in night or over, and I can focus on this game. I plan to do full rereads of all three of you, and make big posts and stuff soon. 

[Robz888]

I'm still V/LA until tommorow afternoon. kooshie says she will hammer today in newbie mafia, my only other game. So that game will be either in night or over, and I can focus on this game. I plan to do full rereads of all three of you, and make big posts and stuff soon.

Hooray! I know it's a lot of work but you really have to. It's all riding on you. And please please please consider Jimm too.

[Robz888]

And remember that running out the clock wouldn't actually kill us, so take your time. We can afford to No Lynch today. Although you won't be around for tomorrow if that happens, probably.

[Jimmmmm]

If you do think I'm maquis, I would argue that I was most directly responsible for shifting the Day 3 lynch to Glooble instead of liopoil. I re-read them both and settled, narrowly, on Glooble. The town then followed my lead and we lynched maquis Glooble. Hopefully this is at least some evidence that I am not maquis.

To me that's cancelled out by the fact that yuma was gunning for Glooble for ages before he was lynched.

[Jimmmmm]

I agree with Robz that we're probably looking for Maquis. I mean, it's possible we're looking for MU, but if so Glooble and Munch should feel pretty hard done by.

[Jimmmmm]

I agree that Robz would probably want to leave ash alive. I think ash most likely would have investigated me, so that worst case I'm an IC, although if he was convinced mcmc was the last MU, he may have investigated yuma who he was more suspicious of than Robz. If the final four were me/lio, ash, Robz and yuma, with ash gunning for yuma, chances are I/lio either believe ash is Town and follow his read, or believe ash is scum and vote him.

So yeah, from scum Robz' point of view, killing ash doesn't seem like the best way to go. But, you know, WIFOM and all of that.

So at this point I'm leaning towards yuma. But I'm still very wary of Robz.

[yuma]

I agree that Robz would probably want to leave ash alive. I think ash most likely would have investigated me, so that worst case I'm an IC, although if he was convinced mcmc was the last MU, he may have investigated yuma who he was more suspicious of than Robz. If the final four were me/lio, ash, Robz and yuma, with ash gunning for yuma, chances are I/lio either believe ash is Town and follow his read, or believe ash is scum and vote him.

So yeah, from scum Robz' point of view, killing ash doesn't seem like the best way to go. But, you know, WIFOM and all of that.

So at this point I'm leaning towards yuma. But I'm still very wary of Robz.

I don't quite understand this... so help me out if I am missing something.

I feel like Robz was making the argument that MU scum wouldn't want to kill ashersky. Which is a good point, except for the decoy ploy that I brought up earlier. But just before you say that scum is more likely to be Marquis than MU... something I kinda agree with but am still pretty skeptical about...

But what about Robz as Marquis? Why would any Marquis player not kill ashersky. We have no idea who ashersky was going to investigate. That is only something ashersky could know. Maybe he was leaning a certain way toward the end of day, but that can easily change based on re-reads, end of day interactions, etc... Any Marquis would be just plain stupid to not kill ashersky because there is a very distinct chance that ashersky would investigate that player, out them as scum and it would basically be game over.

So I don't get how it is possible for you to say that 1. scum is most likely Marquis and 2. Robz as Marquis would want to leave ashersky alive.

Or am I missing something?

[Jimmmmm]

If Robz is Maquis, he wants to kill ash because ash is the Maquis Cop. But in general, he wants to keep ash alive because ash kept saying he was Town. So if Maquis Robz thinks that the risk of ash investigating him is small enough (and why would you investigate your biggest Town read?) and the likelihood of ash being vocal and forceful enough about Robz' Towniness to avoid Robz getting lynched is high enough, then he kills liopoil.

[yuma]

So possibility of Robz being the Marquis:

So the big thing here is this:

Would Marquis Robz be willing to fakeclaim 1-shot tracker (because for him to be the last remaining scum he has to be a Jk or RBer of somekind... although I guess it is conceivably possible that he could be a jack-of-all-trades of sorts? has that been considered or discussed at all?) to save mcmc day2. Because if Robz is just a SK or RB it would not be a smart play as marquis to lie about tracking someone. Think about it. Because if mcmc (who never said whether or not he used night actions or not) actually had used a night action, that would be the end of the story for Robz.

All mcmc would have to do is say he actually did use a night action (some sort of claim), say robz was lying and robz would be lynched. So I don't think that a Robz!marquis JK/RB would do that. Now if he were a jack-of-all-trades... maybe. But that might be a bit of a stretch.

But for completion sake we should look at Robz's interaction with Glooble and themunch

Robz had a town read on Glooble all the up until mid-day 3. He was one of the three players who voted for Glooble early for lurking and then unvoted because of his "genuine reaction." He continued to have this town read on him until it was between lio and glooble late day 3.

He was also an early proponent of the 1-scum in shraeye/raereae/themunch trifecta. Something that ended up being true. Although he completely abandoned this idea once shraeye was NK night 2.

feel like waving some of my reads. Munch specifically. With shraeye being town, I don't think it's fair to munch that I keep to the evidence that points to him next. I've just been very wrong.

Ashersky and Glooble, I may have gone too far toward saying they are definitely town. I still think they are town though.

some random stuff:

Okay, obviously, if someone is  roleblocker, they should claim, because they found scum in all likelihood.

If the kill was doctored, jailed, etc.,.... then don't say anything.

maybe a breadcrumb. Does Robz normally breadcrumb?

and I have to bring this up again, I think this is the third time... but I dont' think i have ever received a response...

To me, this just feels like m-xvi, where all my reads were wrong, day after day after day.

I said before that this quote reminded me soooo much of scum!Robz in the last blitz game where he said in the quicktopic that he and joth should

Just be your town self. Let's play this like its M-XII or M-XVI, if we were secretly scum in those games. We're just two town guys, having fun, mislynching across the board. Our reads are so bad! Etc etc.

scratch that... Robz did respond to it, basically saying that people often joke about it. Which is true.



And in looking from robz's opening day3 post about Glooble being townie... he doesn't really make a smooth transition. It really seemed like he saw that town was moving in the direction of ash, lio or glooble and said that he preferred either lynch over ash. (although at this time it appears he was rather V/LA, but did have plenty of time to respond to themunch's accusations against him... but that is a different sort of time commitment)

and ends up:

Vote: Liopoil for now, but I am very willing to go with Glooble if that's preferred. I urge the Glooble voters to give liopoil another look, though.

I should really give EVERYBODY another look, but I won't have time yet for a few days. Apologies for being really busy IRL.

That isn't everything, but I think it is enough.

Morale of the story is thus: I don't think Robz could be marquis if he is just a x-shot JK/RB. I just don't. The narrative doesn't make sense for it to be as such. Like I said he could be if he is some sort of JOAT, but we have no idea if that is even possible. If it is possible... not that we have any way of finding out... then I do think Robz fits the narrative with his interactions with Glooble and themunch. Townie read on Glooble after he gets some early pressure, a little bit of bussing of themunch, but dropped once he actually has an opportunity to press it and a little bit of bussing from themunch as well, who I have seen bus before. His lateness to the Glooble lynch wagon--although it is true he did join it whereas others did not. But like I said, for that to work he has to be something other than just x-shot JK/RB. Because I can't see marquis!Robz pretending to track mcmc.

[Jimmmmm]

All mcmc would have to do is say he actually did use a night action (some sort of claim), say robz was lying and robz would be lynched. So I don't think that a Robz!marquis JK/RB would do that. Now if he were a jack-of-all-trades... maybe. But that might be a bit of a stretch.

I've asked this question before, and I don't think I've got an answer: What result does a Tracker get if he Tracks someone who tried to take an action but was Roleblocked/Jailkept?

I agree that if Robz is not MU, then he certainly had to know that mcmc took no action. But maybe Robz caused him to take no action?

[Robz888]

All mcmc would have to do is say he actually did use a night action (some sort of claim), say robz was lying and robz would be lynched. So I don't think that a Robz!marquis JK/RB would do that. Now if he were a jack-of-all-trades... maybe. But that might be a bit of a stretch.

I've asked this question before, and I don't think I've got an answer: What result does a Tracker get if he Tracks someone who tried to take an action but was Roleblocked/Jailkept?

I agree that if Robz is not MU, then he certainly had to know that mcmc took no action. But maybe Robz caused him to take no action?

Roleblocking should happen before tracking (or else roleblock wouldn't do anything). So I think I receive a "nothing" result if my tracking target gets blocked. I'll ask Joth, though.

[yuma]

and now whether or not Jimmm can be marquis (since he can't be MU)

Like I mentioned before my main concerns with Jimmm stemmed from me thinking that he might be MU. As such I haven't spent much time considering him as Marquis. But Robz seems to think there is something there...

Early post on sparky--remember him? themunch became him to remind everyone--about how he was lurking. This was the first in a series of posts after jimmmm had made his case on eevee and started to turn from it.

Jimmmm votes Glooble along with a handful of others and also unvotes because of Glooble's reaction...

and basically had no other interaction with munch or glooble day1

Day2:

and I didn't see anything about either of them day2.

Day3:

says this about Glooble:

I get the case on Glooble, and I think it has merit, especially considering we've been lynching more vocal players, and they end up being Town. Glooble has played a fairly "safe" game, although has started contributing more reads. I guess I would put Glooble down as slightly scummy for now, and keep my eye on him.

and this:

Okay, not really sure where to go with this game at this point, so I'll just put down some thoughts.

I think it's most likely that we have 3-5 scum in the game. I guess 6 is possible, but seems unlikely. That means with Galz gone, there are 2-4 scum in {ash, Robz, yuma, Glooble, liopoil, mcmc, theorel, Munch, Dsell}. I think Dsell is probably Town. I also think theorel is probably Town, although I'm less sure about that. I do think that Robz and mcmc are almost definitely on the same team, and at this stage I'm thinking Town. And Robz seems certain that ash is Town. Granted that's a lot of assumptions, but if I go with that then that leaves me with 2-4 scum in {yuma, Glooble, lio, Munch}

where he puts both glooble and themunch into potential scum category.

another quote regarding glooble--and later themunch... where he just doesn't find glooble to be scummy.

I re-read Glooble, and as much as I wanted him to be scummy so that I could feel good about supporting the lynch of someone who's not me, I just didn't. His lurking seems like genuine busyness (although I could be more sympathetic than most to that given how little time I've seemed to have to play Mafia lately), and when he has been posting, he just read like a Townie who wants to contribute but is a little lost at times from being a bit behind. And unless there's something I missed, I haven't found any of the arguments on him terribly convincing either. So while I'd obviously prefer his lynch than mine, he doesn't look like a great candidate to me.
But we obviously need to decide on someone before deadline, preferably before a soft deadline. So I don't know. I think I should take a closer look at yuma and Munch.

and instead votes for lio.

Okay, I re-read lio for an alternative to Glooble. While he hasn't said anything in particular to make me think he's scum, he seems to have played a very safe game, not putting himself out there terribly much. Seeing as though the loud talkers all seem to be flipping Town, it seems likely that there is scum in this game who is trying not to be controversial. So while there's no one in particular who I think has a very high chance of being scum, I will Vote: liopoil since I think he has more chance of flipping scum than Glooble.
Of course, I'd rather lynch Glooble than no one, so if they're our only choices I'd be willing to hammer.

So the next step is to consider whether or not Jimmm is possible as scum. That is from my perspective is it possible for him to be the x-shot JK/RB? And I guess it is. He did claim the 1-shot doc--the claim that is hardest to substantiate--and relatively similar to JK in that it can prevent a death. I think it is also worth looking at what the balance of the whole set up is and see if we really believe that joth added a doc to the setup for town or if he potentially added a JK to a scum team... because as often happens there is a little truth in every lie.


So confirmed town (not including Robz, yuma or Jimmm's claim into this, but will in a minute) had 3 cops, 1-shot vig, IC, two neighbors, 1-shot death proof
MU: Rolecop, Bomb, X?
Marquis: Neighbor, 1-shot Roleblocker, X?

If you add in my role it is: 3 Cops, 1-shot vig, IC, 2 Neighbors, 1-shot death proof, 1-LR
MU: Rolecop, Bomb, X?
Marquis: Neighbor, 1-shot Roleblocker, X?

If you add in Jimmmm's role it is: 3 Cops, 1-shot Vig, IC, 2 Neighbors, 1-shot Death proof, Beloved Princess with 1-shot Doc.

So just in looking at this, did town really need another 1-shot doc, or did another scum team need another 1-shot JK? But we also have to ask the question of whether or not BP makes sense as a scum role... I don't understand what would happen... So Jimmm would get lynched, flip as scum and would town still skip the next day?

[Robz888]

I actually completely forgot the beloved princess aspect. I'm not even 100 percebt sure what that means.

[Jimmmmm]

I think scum Beloved Princess would be at least borderline scummy, along the lines of Jester. Although technically we skip a day if I'm mislynched, so technically if I were scum with the same role it wouldn't do anything, although I guess if that's what jo wanted to do he would have worded it differently.

[Jimmmmm]

I actually completely forgot the beloved princess aspect. I'm not even 100 percebt sure what that means.

If I'm lynched we skip a Day phase. So it goes to night, night actions are submitted and resolved, then it immediately goes to night again.

[yuma]

I think scum Beloved Princess would be at least borderline scummy, along the lines of Jester. Although technically we skip a day if I'm mislynched, so technically if I were scum with the same role it wouldn't do anything, although I guess if that's what jo wanted to do he would have worded it differently.

So as scum it is kinda like vengeful in a way.... as town it is just plain a negative utility.

[yuma]

oh... sorry misread that...