The logic behind the "we want to cut the #of NKs down to one, so let's lynch liopoil" is faulty. I'm going to try to show that in this post.
First of all, let us examine the possibility that there are six scum. This seems unlikely because in this case 2/5 of the players are scum!
With six scum on two teams it is impossible for town to win without a mafia dying at night, or a successful doctor protection or LR, EVEN if town lynches scum every single day. If there are six scum then we are pretty much at Lylo right now. so not only is it incredibly unlikely from my perspective that there are six scum, but even if there are we shouldn't consider it as a possibility because it means we pretty much already lost. Therefore I will assume that there are not 6 scum.
That leaves 4 or 5 scum. in the case that there are 4 scum I am 100% certainly station-aligned. there is a non-zero chance of there being just four scum. However, what that chance is subject to question. So let's assume for the purposes of this that it is only a 2% chance, because that is the worse case for what I am trying to show. (assume there is no such thing as fractions, it makes things simpler
And making it 1% gives you fractions in the next post. Regardless of what you make this number you still arrive at the result I did at the bottom. I think you all understand what I am saying.).
That leaves a 98% chance of there being 5 scum (could be less, depending on above number.). I do not believe that Joth would effect which team had three members based on roles. He says in the opening post that knowing a player's role will not give you any information pertaining to their alignment, except in the case of Cops and IC variant. If he decided to choose which team had more scum on it based on roles then people who claim weaker roles are more likely to be suspected as scum. This means that knowing a player's role WOULD give you information pertaining to their allignment. Therefore I say that assuming there are five scum, there is an equal chance of 2 MU, 3Maquis; and 3MU, 2 Maquis. With 3 MU, 2 Maquis not only am I confirmed town, but it is impossible for us to eliminate a team today. With 2 MU, 3 Maquis, then ANY scum we lynch eliminates a team. In this scenario we have no reason to gun for a particular team. EVEN if we assume that "If there is a maquis, then it is liopoil", There is still a 49+2=51% chance that there is no maquis, and a 49% chance that there is maquis.
Therefore we should lynch based not on chances of eliminating a scumteam, but based on the chance the person flips scum, how powerful their role is, and what information their lynch would give us for tomorrow.