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[jotheonah]

No flavor, slightly drunk.

Vote Count 3.1

ashersky (3): TheMunch, mcmcsalot, Glooble
Glooble (2): ashersky, yuma

Not Voting (5): Robz888, theorel, Dsell, liopoil, Jimmmmm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

[ashersky]

Jimmmmm has been suspiciously lurky.

[mcmcsalot]

Jimmmmm has been suspiciously lurky.

Agreed, I think the day to day post counts will begin to be effective at finding players lurking progressively as game goes on, I'm out for the night but if someone wants to do a post count I'll throw some analysis on it in the morning.

[yuma]

Jimmmmm has been suspiciously lurky.

I don't think it is fair to describe someone as lurky when day3 is only ~12 hours old. There are certainly plenty of times when I am not around and posting for 12+ hours... Unless you mean that he has been lurky for a while, into day2, which I hadn't really noticed but a post count could clarify. And I agree with mcmc that a comparative breakdown of posts by day would be useful, but I would suggest holding off until a few more RL days have passed before trying to utilize such a method. Otherwise the results will be tainted by a smaller sample size and the weekend... Performing such a count done tomorrow I think may be premature.

[mcmcsalot]

Jimmmmm has been suspiciously lurky.

I don't think it is fair to describe someone as lurky when day3 is only ~12 hours old. There are certainly plenty of times when I am not around and posting for 12+ hours... Unless you mean that he has been lurky for a while, into day2, which I hadn't really noticed but a post count could clarify. And I agree with mcmc that a comparative breakdown of posts by day would be useful, but I would suggest holding off until a few more RL days have passed before trying to utilize such a method. Otherwise the results will be tainted by a smaller sample size and the weekend... Performing such a count done tomorrow I think may be premature.

agreed, there's usually a few pages of stuff analyze made after I go to bed anyway, however its sad I think most people post much less on weekends whereas my schedule permits me the opposite.

[ashersky]

Jimmmmm has been suspiciously lurky.

I don't think it is fair to describe someone as lurky when day3 is only ~12 hours old. There are certainly plenty of times when I am not around and posting for 12+ hours... Unless you mean that he has been lurky for a while, into day2, which I hadn't really noticed but a post count could clarify. And I agree with mcmc that a comparative breakdown of posts by day would be useful, but I would suggest holding off until a few more RL days have passed before trying to utilize such a method. Otherwise the results will be tainted by a smaller sample size and the weekend... Performing such a count done tomorrow I think may be premature.

I meant more that I forgot he was even in this game.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, I think I'm going to have to reset a bit on this game. shraeye was Town, okay. I guess him being an on-request IC kind of explains how he played to some extent. I think ICs might tend to read scummy to anyone who didn't know they were an IC. I'm not quite sure why both scumteams targeted him. Maybe they both thought he was scum, but he seems like someone who was likely to be lynched soon, so I don't know.

Next task is to re-read Glooble and lio.

[Jimmmmm]

A thought I just had: is it worth remembering that scum have less scum targets? So, from scum's point of view, Cuzz was less likely to be scum than he was from Town point of view? Does this mean scum would be less likely to push hard for a particular lynch, because they're less likely to get Town cred from hitting scum?

The first part of this confuses me.  I think you mean, assuming X number of scum in the game, while town can scum hunt for X players, scum can only scum hunt for X-their own scum team, so they actually have a harder time numbers-wise to catch scum.  It's is true that they have less scum to hunt for, but they are hunting from a smaller pool, since they can discount partners, so it probably doesn't affect them as much as you think.

As for not pushing hard on a lynch because they won't get as much town cred, wouldn't that apply the same for town players?  I don't think it's a factor--I think scum wants to lynch the other team just as much as town, and won't dial it back because they won't get enough pats on the back.

Oh, just saw this. I meant they're less likely to hit scum than Town is (because they're only going for one scum team instead of two). So if scum pushes hard for a lynch of someone who they think is scummy, they're more likely to hit Town and thus more likely to fall under suspicion for leading a mislynch. I don't know if there's much to this, just something that I realised.

[Jimmmmm]

I get the case on Glooble, and I think it has merit, especially considering we've been lynching more vocal players, and they end up being Town. Glooble has played a fairly "safe" game, although has started contributing more reads. I guess I would put Glooble down as slightly scummy for now, and keep my eye on him.

[yuma]

so we have two lynch wagons to take a look at, well kinda three (four even) with shraeye dead. Here they are for some good old fashion wagon analysis:

Cuzz (: Galzria, TheMunch, shraeye, Glooble, liopoil, raerae, Robz888, ashersky

Eevee (7): ashersky, shraeye, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot, Robz888

shraeye day 1 quick-wagon: (6) Jimmmm, Eevee, yuma, ashersky, Robz888, Cuzz

shraeye day 2 wagon (4): ashersky, Robz888, theorel, Jimmmmm

On 0 wagons: Dsell

On 1 wagon: Glooble, theorel, mcmcsalot

On 2 wagons: yuma, TheMunch, liopoil, Jimmmm,

On 3 wagons: no one.

On 4 wagons: Robz888, ashersky

So some good stuff here I think.

I still maintain that it is highly likely that there is at least one scum, if not more on the Cuzz wagon, especially with shraeye's death. First reaction makes me suspicious of robz and ash since they were on all 4, but I dont' know... in past games scum just isn't on every wagon... and besides when we look at actual lynch wagons we need to include themunch and lio on this as well as Robz and ash as being on all 4 lynch wagons.

I am going to just be honest here. I really, really don't like Dsell not being on any wagon. Has Dsell voted for anyone this game? NO! He hasn't placed a single vote all game! All three days! No vote! No wonder he wasn't on a wagon... Dsell had you noticed that you hadn't cast a single vote all game? I'll be honest. I really want to vote Dsell over this. Getting towncred early, staying out of the limelight, not joining any wagon that might end up making him more suspicious... and no one seemed to notice until now when I thought some wagon analysis might be a good idea. Ug....

Well, I will have to think more about that.... But beyond that I think there is likely scum 1. within the Cuzz wagon (Glooble, ash, Robz, TheMunch, lio); and 2. people on only 1 wagon (mcmc, theorel, Glooble), although here theorel could be considered to be on the 1shraeye wagon and being willing to hammer eevee. and look at that Glooble is on both.

I also find Jimmm and theorel (with the same caveat as above)  a bit suspicious for not being on either lynch wagon--he was only on the shraeye wagon twice--kinda reminds me of me playing scum in MXIV...

[ashersky]

Yuma, I got a lot of crap D1 for not accepting Dsell's town cred fully, if you recall.  I cast suspicion on him for the lurking, but everyone wrote it off.

Your wagon analysis puts him in scum territory, I believe.

Glooble fits your analysis, as well, and I think is a good lynch.

[liopoil]

very good post Yuma. Town points to you.

Vote: Dsell

I don't want to lynch him. However I want him to give reads on people. maybe even *gasp* vote. jimmmm, glooble, or ash I still think have a better chance of flipping scum.

[Dsell]

I've actually given reads...

[Dsell]

But to remind people, scum read on Munch, town read on Robz, Theorel, Jimmm, and yuma. Someone (perhaps shraeye) made a pretty decent case on Mcmc yesterday. Pretty neutral on liopoil, very slight town on ashersky.

[Dsell]

And I'm also very slight town on Glooble, while acknowledging that he is dangerous as scum. Very possibly scum. But not one that I want to lynch now.

[theorel]

Okay, I've done some rereading.
So, for starters, shraeye posted a summary read of everyone before he found out that Robz had tracked mcmcsalot.  Once he found that out, he unvoted mcmcsalot and said that it seemed reasonable to make him townier for it.  He also reread Eevee and found him scummier than expected.  Eevee is dead and town, so that doesn't really impact things.  Based on those two things, here's a *modified* read-list from shraeye before end-of-day yesterday.
scummy:
liopoil
Glooble
yuma
Dsell
mcmcsalot

neutralish:
Jimmmmm
Munch
theorel

Towny:
Robz
ashersky

Basically I dropped mcmcsalot from top of scummy category to bottom.  I'm not sure if that's exactly accurate, but there it is.

Now, there's lots of reasons for shraeye to be killed, but a big reason is because he found scum scummy.  Both teams killed him, so I think this was almost certainly happening somewhere.  Besides, these were the reads of a known town-player, which makes them valuable.

I had looked back at this before making my read-list earlier today, and it motivated my finding liopoil guiltier, and was part of my reason for wanting to reread Glooble.
I reread Glooble, and the end result was that I found him townier, especially because of how he had defended shraeye.
I've reread liopoil, and he "sounds" townie to me also, this is vaguer than the reason on Glooble.

However, I also felt like there was some buddying from liopoil towards Glooble (didn't notice it the other way).  Here are a couple posts that stood out...here and here.  But on reread I may have read too much into this, as there were only a couple other interactions which seemed less buddying on reread.  But, it did stand out as odd to me, especially because for a lot of that, most the rest of his attention seemed focused on Jimmmmm's claim-thing.  I mean he has the one post of an everyone-read, but other than that he's casting suspicions on Jimmmmm and buddying Glooble.

Based on that alone, I'd rather lynch liopoil.  But I need to look back at a couple other things also: who voted for liopoil yesterday?  Who has expressed interest in lynching Glooble today?  Those are important things to be considered in all of this.  For now, I'm going to Vote: liopoil and see where things go.

[mcmcsalot]

To answer theorel I was very ready to lynch liopoil yesterday, and I have supported an ashersky lynch for quite some time now. I still think these are both good candidates. I will have to reread some of glooble to see if I find him scummy or not, the fact that I have to say that(I can't recall much of what he has done all game) makes me find him possibly scumming.

[yuma]

However, I also felt like there was some buddying from liopoil towards Glooble (didn't notice it the other way).  Here are a couple posts that stood out...here and here.  But on reread I may have read too much into this, as there were only a couple other interactions which seemed less buddying on reread.  But, it did stand out as odd to me, especially because for a lot of that, most the rest of his attention seemed focused on Jimmmmm's claim-thing.  I mean he has the one post of an everyone-read, but other than that he's casting suspicions on Jimmmmm and buddying Glooble.

Based on that alone, I'd rather lynch liopoil.  But I need to look back at a couple other things also: who voted for liopoil yesterday?  Who has expressed interest in lynching Glooble today?  Those are important things to be considered in all of this.  For now, I'm going to Vote: liopoil and see where things go.

I hadn't noticed those posts in regard to Glooble, or perhaps I noticed them because I remembered them but didn't see their significance... and to be honest I still kinda don't. I think that part of this is that I have a pretty strong scum read on Glooble, whereas you have a town read on Glooble. And for that reason I find it hard--although I do need to remember that there is more than one scum team--to see a player buddying up to scum. Normally it is a scum buddying up to town.

I would also say that he has had some "buddying" like posts with other players as well... He really liked shraeye's analysis. He just gave me townie points a few posts up, he and themunch are apparently like this.... (imagine two of my fingers crossed together)...  and I am sure there are more out there... so I am not sure what your point is with Glooble specifically. Lio seems like he likes to compliment other players for their work and their reads. Maybe this is scummy, but it is kinda hard to tell w/o meta analysis.

My previous read on lio (from late day2) changed a gut scum read into a non-scum read. I still lean toward town on him.

[liopoil]

I haven't really been doing it intentionally... I just appreciate long posts and such as they help me get a better grasp on the game and form reads... I gave Yuma town points for the last one because it was analyzing wagons which seems a more pro-town thing to do than posting long things about one person. This is because wagons would often portray yourself or your team mate(s) in a negative light, as opposed to when you post reads you can put everyone in whatever light you wish.

[liopoil]

woah, been silent for a while here. almost 8 hours! bump...

Vote count please maybe that will start some discussion....

[jotheonah]

Replacements for the deceased come on the morning transport. Luckily other people seem to have done all these jobs before: Li Nalas is taking over for Kira, Michael Eddington coming in for Odo, and as for the vacant chief medical officer spot, Starfleet is a little unsympathetic: "Just use the EMH" is the memo.

Vote Count 3.2

ashersky (3): TheMunch, mcmcsalot, Glooble
Glooble (2): ashersky, yuma
Dsell (1): liopoil
liopoil (1): theorel

Not Voting (3): Robz888, Dsell, Jimmmmm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is February 8th at noon, forum time.

[liopoil]

Unvote. Dsell responded.

[yuma]

woah, been silent for a while here. almost 8 hours! bump...

Vote count please maybe that will start some discussion....

yes, but not horribly quiet, just a bit of a lull... kinda therapeutic I hope...

I am kinda waiting for people to finish up rereads on Glooble... There are a couple that are supposedly in progress or waiting to be done.

So let's set a soft deadline again? I'll be honest, yesterday's deadline snuck up on me. It shouldn't have, but it did and it made everything else kinda messy... Eevee being unable to claim or provide reads before dying... So soft deadline suggestions? Maybe like the wednesday before the deadline, the 6th?

[yuma]

Unvote. Dsell responded.

yes, but still no vote

[mcmcsalot]

So just did my reread of glooble, early game he postponed giving reads over and over again, even said he was going to give reads on everyone but didn't want to half ass it. This never happened, now I know I started a post on everyone once and didn't finish it but he posted on noone. Later he had scum reads on ash and liopoil which I supports so I honestly don't know what to think. I support the ash and liopoil lynch over a glooble lynch but he has been lurking along with not helping town at all. I see yuma's argument for a scum!glooble partner with galz, so overall I would support a glooble lynch.