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[Robz888]

Yeah, we definitely need Jimm, Eevee, theorel, Dsell to say something, they haven't talked in a while and we have a deadline coming.

[liopoil]

Yuma: For the most part I think his analysis of me was very fair and accurate. He hasn't posted for even longer than Jimmmmm. He still isn't lurking though, and has, somewhat like theorel, been very helpful in his posts. Has done pretty much nothing to get people suspicious of him, and does anyone have a scum read on him? I don't for sure. I hear Yuma is good at doing this, and has done it quite well as scum, and so people call him "invsiyuma", which is to some extent true here. Still, townread.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I want to hear form yuma too.

[liopoil]

Dsell: he's going to be hard to lynch this whole game because of that first post. His last few posts have been about how he'll post later and the such, so I'm hoping he'll be here soon so he can actually put a vote on someone... but yeah, he hasn't contributed much. It an eevee-dsell scum team would be totally awesome, with them planning the stint before the game started... this actually fits a bit because eevee was suspicious of galz right... so they could be the maquis. If we lynch eevee and he flip maquis we should actually consider dsell I think....

[Jimmmmm]

I'm semi-here but at work. I support the shraeye lynch, but when I get home in ~3 hours I'll reread at least shraeye and lio.

[yuma]

I too am here, have kinda kept up via e-mails, but need to reread everything... will reply as I go along and put down my thoughts and answer questions...

[yuma]

There has been a lot of vote movement since Robz claimed, to help me understand it and to provide a record of who voted who, and more importantly, who was wiling to vote for whom, I will list it here:

Jimmmm unvotes
ashersky votes shraeye
lio unvotes
Jimmm votes shraeye
yuma votes glooble
shraeye votes mcmc
shraeye unvotes
shraeye votes ashersky
themunch votes ashersky
glooble votes ashersky
mcmc votes ashersky
eevee votes lio
shraeye votes lio
glooble votes lio
mcmc votes lio
ash votes eevee
shraeye votes eevee
themunch votes eevee

[raerae]

Vote Count 2.8

shraeye (3): Robz888, theorel, Jimmmmm
Glooble (1): yuma
Lio (3): Eevee, glooble, mcmcsalot
Eevee (3): ashersky, shraeye, TheMunch

Not voting (2):  Dsell, liopoil

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[liopoil]

I think that everyone who is here should say who of eevee, shraeye, and liopoil they might vote for today. here's what I think we have so far, at least:

liopoil: eevee, shraeye
Shraeye: eevee, liopoil
Munch: eevee
Robz: all three?
Jimmmm: supports shraeye lynch at least

is this right?

[liopoil]

Leaving now, I'm going to try to be back just before the deadline. I think Eevee is not only more likely than shraeye to be lynched, but also more likely to flip scum, and a more informative lynch. Vote: Eevee

Munch: you say you oppose my lynch 100%... so please do whatever you need to do to stop them from lynching me.

[yuma]

well at this point it looks like the viable lynches are eevee, lio and shraeye.

So I would be wiling to lynch all of them, that has not changed from my post yesterday as all were in that range specifications. The thing is that I have reservations about all of them.

Eevee - LALL yes, but eevee knows this.... He has been around and I just have such a hard time seeing scum eevee be willing to lurk to the extent that he has and be scum. The one thing that stood out to me from his--aside from the obvious lurking--was somethign shraeye pointed out. It was his "I am not surprised that everyone is suspicious of me" when shraeye said only he had been suspicious of him. That is typical scum... so self obsessed with their scum image that one read turns into everybody...

shraeye - like he has mentioned he has been super active and pushing forward. He said that he has been one of the most outspoken and pushing of town and I would agree in putting him up there with myself and ash as the driving force of day2. He was also an extreme pusher of the cuzz wagon. This is both points for an points against.

lio - Lurking and not much content, but in my reread of him there just wasn't much there to find scummy. Perhaps that should be scummy in and of itself, but it just wasn't...

Also I think that when we are looking for someone to lynch we really need to be looking for someone that fits the bill of a potential partner with confirmed scum Galz. I don't think it is mandatory for that person to fit that bill, but I would strongly suggest it. In checking back with my further analysis of Galz's comments I find: that galz expressed a townread on Eevee all game even when he came under pressure... found lio scummy only because of Cuzz wagon... and had a slight town read on shraeye, but could lynch.

How about these players talking about Galz day1.... Eevee was suspicious of Galz very, very early... He continued this read into mid-day... but never really said why... mentions that he was underposting and "doesn't feel like town Galz"  But then switches gears completely and finds Galz "very townie" because of the post he wrote about how there really aren't lurkers in this game and can't use that to read people... and as a result tries to divert attention to one of the most active players in the game...

At this point even before reading the other's thoughts on Galz... I will reread, but I am wondering if I will find anything as good as this... I am willing to vote: eevee I mean. Lurking today... Acting somewhat like an IC because of his townread on Cuzz.... Him feeling like there was a lot of suspicion on him earlier when it appears there was only shraeye... but mostly because of Galz's extreme townread on Eevee coupled with eevee's back and forth read on galz and his attempt to deflect attention away from Galz's lurking and get a lynch on an active poster after Galz's famous lurking isn't scummy in this game post...

[yuma]

that puts eevee at L-2

[mcmcsalot]

I've said this before I support the liopoil lynch and the eevee lynch is not a terrible alternative, his lurking is quite a scum tell.

[yuma]

but to be thorough... here is what lio and shraeye said about Galz.


lio:
early has a null, pretty town read on him. and later expresses townreads on Galz and raerae from the Cuzz wagoners... and that is it.


shraeye: in a quick read I don't think shraeye expressed a definitive read on galz, but shraeye didn't make definitive reads on everyone yesterday. for exampel I don't think he made on me either... so not so concerned about that...

[theorel]

I'm always out Wednesday evening, which made this a bad deadline for me, but whatever.  I'm here now and I'll be back before 7am.

For the most part my reads are the same as before: yuma, DSell, Robz seem town, even if one of them is scum I'd rather postpone lynching any of them.
mcmcsalot: Robz tracked with no result.  That's a good enough reason not to lynch him for now.
liopoil: munch is 100% opposed to.  Good enough for me, with Munch being on the town-side of neutral and liopoil being on the neutral-side of neutral.

shraeye: if he's scum and he wins I'll be upset.  It's true that many seem unlikely as his partners...but I feel like that's part of not really looking for scum-teams/scum-pairs in the early game.  There are just too many people to make conclusive statements regarding that.  2 scum on-wagon killing one other player on-wagon isn't unheard of ridiculous, especially if they were gunning for scum (which does happen a good bit in multi-ball).  3 scum on-wagon killing other players on-wagon is not so ridiculous, especially when he can make the claim "I surely wouldn't shoot someone on-wagon".  I dunno, as I said before it's not bad reasoning.  I just can't shake the feeling he's scum working some rational but flawed arguments (a lot like he did to convince people to vote for Cuzz).  Anyways, I'm still up for his lynch.  But, it seems like that's just not going to happen for whatever reason (I'm a little suspicious of the way it keeps getting derailed also).

Eevee: I've suspected since almost the beginning of the game.  I think the arguments about his Day2 play being scummy are actually pretty good.  The only argument I have for him being town is that known-scum Galz gave him such a strong town-read which seems unlikely.  But if I'm honest with myself, that's no more unlikely than the things I'm discrediting in shraeye's defense.  I'm fine with this lynch.  And I'm willing to vote for Eevee to make it happen.  I would do so now, but I would rather someone else put him at L-1 and I'll hammer in the morning if needed.  (I'll be on before 7am)  Eevee should have a chance to respond and he has that whole timezone thing going on.  If you guys want me to put in the L-1 vote now, I'm willing. (up until I go to bed).

I'm going to post this, and work on the other folks afterwards to put in what might be my last words on them.

[ashersky]

mcmc may be willing to put Eevee at L-1.

In response to lio's question:

I think that everyone who is here should say who of eevee, shraeye, and liopoil they might vote for today. here's what I think we have so far, at least:

liopoil: eevee, shraeye
Shraeye: eevee, liopoil
Munch: eevee
Robz: all three?
Jimmmm: supports shraeye lynch at least

is this right?

ashersky: eevee, shraeye, liopoil (in that order, but really prefer one of the first two)

[mcmcsalot]

vote: eevee he has not been around nearly enough, I would say he hasn't been around much at all, but he was scum in the recent blitz game and seemed to do this whole checking in thing hes been doing here.

[theorel]

Munch: I'm convinced enough that he isn't Galzria's partner, although I suppose this should extend to shraeye as well (bah).  He's got more options than shraeye if he's on an opposing team though.  Honestly if it was just being on the Cuzz-lynch I agree he'd look as guilty as shraeye, but in the approach they each took to pushing the lynch, shraeye looks so much worse to me.

ashersky: I don't share Robz' extreme town-read here.  I can seem him kind of like Morgrim in his mislynch characteristics (i.e. he just says some scummy things).  However, unlike Morgrim he's been correctly lynched before as scum as well.  I'd lynch him over any town-reads, but still think that letting the game play out around him is reasonable.  There's always the potential that he'll get investigated and then we'll just know.

Jimmmmm: He's a lot like Eevee really in terms of super-active day1 less active day2.  I also suspect him as a potential partner for Galzria (given raerae's death).  Both of them support the one-on, one-off that's more likely given the on-wagon shot.  OTOH, I thought he was likelier as town yesterday than I found Eevee, and he has pre-claimed a desire to claim before lynching.  We're too close to deadline for me to be happy with the situation that claim would leave us at.

Glooble: I don't really get his strong town-read on shraeye (which he had yesterday too).  I actually do feel like he's been contributing pretty well today especially as compared to yesterday, though I don't necessarily have a strong sense of where he stands (outside shraeye).  I don't think I've agreed with much of what he's said, but that's fine.  I'm still pretty much neutral here, maybe worth looking at him later.

[raerae]

Vote Count 2.9

shraeye (3): Robz888, theorel, Jimmmmm
Lio (3): Eevee, glooble, mcmcsalot
(L-1) Eevee (6): ashersky, shraeye, TheMunch, liopoil, yuma, mcmcsalot

Not voting (1):  Dsell

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.

[ashersky]

Okay, Eevee is currently at L-1.  Theorel has stated his intent to hammer before the deadline, but still giving Eevee a chance to respond/claim/whatever he wants.

I would hazard to say most people would be with me in finding any derphammerer super scummy.

[theorel]

short-form response to the specific question of shraeye, liopoil, eevee.

in order: shraeye, eevee.  liopoil if you were the only one at L-1 at 6am I would hammer to get a lynch.

So, just to be clear: I'll be online around 6am tomorrow to hammer.  That's close to deadline, and understandably someone might hammer before then (it often happens in this situation), or y'all might even lynch someone else.  You know all my reads as they stand currently.

[yuma]

I would really prefer that someone... anyone really hammer before we get that close to deadline... the last time we got that close, people got cold feet and the lynch didn't happen... anyone remember MVIII... I do, a no-lynch wasn't very fun. And it was a similar time, early in the morning and people who said they were going to get online at a certain time didn't... it was bad.

[yuma]

with that said... we do need to hear from eevee.... hopefully sometimes soon.

[ashersky]

Possibly Robz could be back on in that time--he could hammer.

[Robz888]

I am here, and am available for the next 2 hours or so, and then will not be on again until after deadline.