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[shraeye]

This is what I got on liopoil:

More than a few contradictions:
stance on flavorname claiming

I would also be against claiming flavour stuff or anything for that matter.

Oh mine was for a reason. I just didn't bother discussing it in that post. I had stated my ideas in a past post and was just now voting on them.

Just an idea, not sure if it's been said before, and not sure I think it's a good idea, just should be giving thought:

maybe we should all claim flavor names? I'm fairly sure they do contain info about people's role. Not their alignment, but their role.

What changed?

votes mcmc without reason
Early day1, Yuma gave a call to make votes, and liopoil puts his vote on Robz

I see your reasoning for voting more, and I agree with it. Vote: Robz888

Though it lacks reasoning, he provided this when giving his list of reads earlier that day.  Of note is his read on mcmcsalot

mcmcsalot: Pretty much no read. maybe slightly more scummy than station, but if I had to guess I'd say town because there are more town than scum. Oh wait, he said I was scummy once. Nevermind guys he's scum! 

In summary: town reads: Dsell, Eevee, Raerae, TheMunch, Yuma, Theorel, LIOPOIL
                   Scum reads: Ashersky, Robz888, Jimmmmm.

Did I do it right guys? 

I noted it because the next post after his Robz vote is a blatant jump-on-wagon vote on mcmcsalot.

Well, it seems most people have town reads on robz, and I don't want to lynch eevee. So I'm going to hop on a different wagon. Vote: Mcmcsalot

Yuma expresses discontent that people were voting completely sans reasoning and liopoil defended himself by saying

Oh mine was for a reason. I just didn't bother discussing it in that post. I had stated my ideas in a past post and was just now voting on them

Munch/shraeye scummy for pushing Cuzz hard, but also thinks it's mostly town on Cuzz

Galz and raerae I think are town. Leening scum on ash, but he is confusing. munch, glooble, and shraeye I lean town, but munch and shraeye I think are pushing the wagon too hard, in a scummy way.

Also:

Say you're on a scum team, and cuzz isn't on it. There are fewer scum for you to hunt for than everyone else. As it is jumping on a wagon is a risk because people on a wagon of someone who flips town gets suspected. If you are on another scum team the person who you're voting for is more likely to be town than if you are town. This means people who are scum should be more careful when voting for someone who is likely going to be lynched. So not only are the people on cuzz's team likely not on the wagon, but the people who are scum but not on his team likely aren't as well. there's still guaranteed to be around 5 town not voting cuzz though....

So I'm not sure what he means at all by me or Munch being scummy for pushing the wagon, when he they says that scum would be too careful to be on the wagon (he is also on the wagon at this time).

thinks scumreads on Galz are scummy

yay, things to analyze!

the scum-team with galz on it almost certainly killed raerae. The NK on raerae was most likely an attempt to get the other scum team. There were quite a few people who had a scum read on raerae, and ash was the one who pushed it the hardest. Ash has already addressed this, but I'm not sold on it. ash asked why he would push the lynch just to NK her later? well I'd assume that you would rater lynch her so you can NK someone else, plus if she's scum you get a little town cred. so FoS ash.

...

who thought galz was scum? anyone? anyone who did should similarly have some suspicion.

Here's where he's theorizing on night kills.  I mentioned before that there's a scummy way to do this and a non-scummy way to do this.  I think this is the non-scummy way.  But I noticed the last question at the end?  Why would people saying Galz is scum become suspicious?  I'm more suspicious of people who had a strong townread on Galz, and I think that is you.  In fact your other strong townread was NKed by Galz's team.  I find that super interesting, and definitely in the scummy way.

thinks mcmcsalot is only scummy guy

I now have a townread on every player in this game except galzria and mcmcsalot. galz is dead, so Vote: Mcmcsalot. The rest of you have done pretty darn well coming across as on the good guy's side.

The biggest reason for this is that he said he would hammer but didn't. It's a good way to not take a side, and to not really be under scrutiny regardless of how cuzz flipped. Sure, if cuzz flipped scum people would say, "oh look, mcmc was off-wagon, but I guess he was going to hammer, and he didn't oppose the lynch... and oh look eevee REALLY didn't want to lynch him!" It seems overly cautious. Scum need to be more cautious than town, so excessive carefulness is scummy.

what?  I mean I suppose it fits with your theory of scum avoiding the Cuzz lynch, but why are you only suspicious of one person?  There are probably at least 3 scum out there still, possible more if we have a 2team/noSK scenario.

[shraeye]

Vote: liopoil

[liopoil]

hey guys! don't lynch me just to lynch someone! how did you guys choose me to be the unlucky one to just randomly lynch?

PPE: hooray for munch! haven't read shraeyes post yet. will now. then lots of comments

[Dsell]

Don't lynch anybody without me. I have the rest of the day to catch up and give thoughts.

[shraeye]

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

Why?

[mcmcsalot]

hey guys! don't lynch me just to lynch someone! how did you guys choose me to be the unlucky one to just randomly lynch?

PPE: hooray for munch! haven't read shraeyes post yet. will now. then lots of comments

have you not seen shraeye's post about you or mine?

[TheMunch]

I am 100% against a liopoil lynch.

Why?

I do not think that he actually has a good chance of flipping scum.  He could flip scum but there are reasons that I dont want to talk about that indicate to me that he is not a good lynch candidate for today.

[liopoil]

I realize there is certainly more than one more scum left, and that I therefore must be wrong about some of my townreads, but that isn't going to make me give a scumread on someone who I think is town.

flavor names: woah, I didn't realize that. I actually did not remember that first post. I guess I contradicted myself. is that necessarily scummy though? I wasn't necessarily supporting it in the second post though, I just realized that it should be given some consideration.

That first post about mcmc was early-ish D1, when I did actually have no read on him. I now am convinced he is very likely town, due to robz's claim. well done robz.

scummily pushing wagon: I was unclear, I should have elaborated and further said that this was because I disagreed with lynching him to end the day, like shraeye and munch were saying.

[liopoil]

if a scum has a scumread on someone and there are two teams, than that person is much more likely to NK them. If you think galz is town you will only NK them if you think they are a PR or will push a lynch on you.

[liopoil]

my townread on raerae should now be towny, not scummy. If I was scum and thought raerae was town I would be less likely to NK her! raerae was not about to push a lynch on me and had no signs of being a PR

[TheMunch]

well yes, it wasn't intended to be a terribly informative post. and I wasn't jumpig on Yuma's case. I was jumping on munch's case.

Maybe its that Liopoil was sheeping me that is causing me to think the way I do.

[Glooble]

flavor names: woah, I didn't realize that. I actually did not remember that first post. I guess I contradicted myself. is that necessarily scummy though? I wasn't necessarily supporting it in the second post though, I just realized that it should be given some consideration.

The thing is if you actually have opinions on something you tend to me consistent about them. You say you forgot, but I think that kind of forgetting is more likely scum than town. As town, the first time it comes up you actually think "is this a good idea for the town?" and then you say what you think. The second time, even if you don't remember what you said before, you should still go through the same thought process and come to the same conclusion.

As scum, on the other hand, the first time it comes up, your thought process is more convoluted. It's "is this a good idea for my team? is it a good idea for the town? If so, is it worth it to grab town points by agreeing with it, or is it better to do what's actually best for my team? will I look scummy if I support this?" and so on. So when it comes up again, its much easier to come to a different conclusion about what your opinion is.

In other words, I find this pretty solid evidence. And given that ashersky is not going take off before we run out of time, I will go ahead and vote: liopoil

[ashersky]

Caught up.

FOS everyone who bought into my wagon.  Shraeye gets under pressure, builds a flimsy case on the easiest lynch in town, me.  Whatevs, go for it if you want.  But it's ridiculous.  I mean, Munch I get.  He's a known tunneler of town (even as town).  Glooble, he of little content, decides to help "back-up" that case with some fancy quoting, although he's provided very, very little in the way of analysis/content all game.  And then super-scummy almostconf!town mcmc sheeps inexplicably, most likely delayed OMGUS.

I still prefer shraeye's lynch, as he's MORE likely to flip scum than lio, and his flip will definitely be more useful than lio's, because shraeye has interacted with plenty of people.

I'm still willing to chalk up lio's inconsistencies and lack of strong reads to being new.

[ashersky]

Can we get a vote count?

[liopoil]

I would agree that shraeye is more likely to flip scum than me . he's still at L-2 I believe, and I'm at L-4 I think. if we don't reach a majority at deadline than we auto-lynch whoever has the most votes at the deadline? I would hammer shraeye if it meant preventing my own lynch, so he is effectively at L-1... He is not my preferred lynch, but I would certainly prefer to lynch him than me.

[Glooble]

Caught up.

FOS everyone who bought into my wagon.  Shraeye gets under pressure, builds a flimsy case on the easiest lynch in town, me.  Whatevs, go for it if you want.  But it's ridiculous.  I mean, Munch I get.  He's a known tunneler of town (even as town).  Glooble, he of little content, decides to help "back-up" that case with some fancy quoting, although he's provided very, very little in the way of analysis/content all game.  And then super-scummy almostconf!town mcmc sheeps inexplicably, most likely delayed OMGUS.

I still prefer shraeye's lynch, as he's MORE likely to flip scum than lio, and his flip will definitely be more useful than lio's, because shraeye has interacted with plenty of people.

I'm still willing to chalk up lio's inconsistencies and lack of strong reads to being new.

Did you just FOS me for providing content?

[jotheonah]

Can we get a vote count?

Won't have time until probably 6:30. You'll have to make do with unofficial.

[ashersky]

Unofficial:

Vote Count 2.7

shraeye (4): ashersky, Robz888, theorel, Jimmmmm {L-2}
Glooble (1): yuma
ashersky (2): TheMunch, mcmcsalot
liopoil (2): Eevee, shraeye, Glooble

Not voting (2):  Dsell, liopoil

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is Thursday, January 24th at 7:00 am forum time.
That's about 18 hours away.

[ashersky]

Caught up.

FOS everyone who bought into my wagon.  Shraeye gets under pressure, builds a flimsy case on the easiest lynch in town, me.  Whatevs, go for it if you want.  But it's ridiculous.  I mean, Munch I get.  He's a known tunneler of town (even as town).  Glooble, he of little content, decides to help "back-up" that case with some fancy quoting, although he's provided very, very little in the way of analysis/content all game.  And then super-scummy almostconf!town mcmc sheeps inexplicably, most likely delayed OMGUS.

I still prefer shraeye's lynch, as he's MORE likely to flip scum than lio, and his flip will definitely be more useful than lio's, because shraeye has interacted with plenty of people.

I'm still willing to chalk up lio's inconsistencies and lack of strong reads to being new.

Did you just FOS me for providing content?

I FOSed you for faking content.

[liopoil]

Can I FoS you for faking a vote count?

I believe that's three people on my wagon, not two.

[ashersky]

Can I FoS you for faking a vote count?

I believe that's three people on my wagon, not two.

Yeah, you can.  For having modded multiple games, I'm terribad at getting vote counts right.

[ashersky]

Really unofficial but right now, I think:

shraeye (4): ashersky, Robz888, theorel, Jimmmmm {L-2}
Glooble (1): yuma
ashersky (2): TheMunch, mcmcsalot
liopoil (3): Eevee, shraeye, Glooble

Not voting (2):  Dsell, liopoil

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[shraeye]

I still prefer shraeye's lynch, as he's MORE likely to flip scum than lio, and his flip will definitely be more useful than lio's, because shraeye has interacted with plenty of people.

I do not find this correct.  What of my flip?  One of the best reasons people shouldn't be voting me, is that I really have no person who could be my scumpartner.

Both NKs were on the wagon, so if my any of my "partners" were also there, that would be very dangerous.  Also, if scumshraeye had done something like that, then it would be smart play for my partner to bus me hard on day2, giving up one already-suspected scum in a small pool and buying themselves much credit.  But as for the people pushing hardest for me I feel like this is Jimmmm/theorel, who weren't on Cuzz.

Off wagon it seems like my most likely partners would be mcmcsalot/Dsell, but both of them are considered very town by many people.

So if I do flip scum, who is suspicious?  I don't see any logical person.

And when I flip town, who is most suspicious?  Those attacking me? I don't really think theorel/Jimmm are scum, so I think that would be a bad direction if y'all lynch me.  If me flipping town is helpful just because you can finally believe that all my cases and suspicions are in earnest, why not start thinking that now?  I don't post blind reads without evidence, I always show why my reads are as they are.  If you buy into the reason, then you can do so without seeing my alignment.  If you don't buy into my reasoning, then even when you learn that I'm town, y'all will just say "he was misguided town."

[ashersky]

I do not find this correct.  What of my flip?  One of the best reasons people shouldn't be voting me, is that I really have no person who could be my scumpartner.

Both NKs were on the wagon, so if my any of my "partners" were also there, that would be very dangerous.  Also, if scumshraeye had done something like that, then it would be smart play for my partner to bus me hard on day2, giving up one already-suspected scum in a small pool and buying themselves much credit.  But as for the people pushing hardest for me I feel like this is Jimmmm/theorel, who weren't on Cuzz.

Off wagon it seems like my most likely partners would be mcmcsalot/Dsell, but both of them are considered very town by many people.

So if I do flip scum, who is suspicious?  I don't see any logical person.

And when I flip town, who is most suspicious?  Those attacking me? I don't really think theorel/Jimmm are scum, so I think that would be a bad direction if y'all lynch me.  If me flipping town is helpful just because you can finally believe that all my cases and suspicions are in earnest, why not start thinking that now?  I don't post blind reads without evidence, I always show why my reads are as they are.  If you buy into the reason, then you can do so without seeing my alignment.  If you don't buy into my reasoning, then even when you learn that I'm town, y'all will just say "he was misguided town."

I mean, we'd be able to go back and read your thoughts with your level of honesty in mind.  I think those pushing your lynch would be suspected of bussing--this is D2, when I think bussing is more likely, especially if a team member drew suspicion for D1 actions. 

As for who your partners are, people have formed opinions, true, but if you flip scum (or town), people will reassess those opinions in light of new information.

Also, if you are SK, you would have no partners, which fits this narrative you've created.

If we lynch lio, and he flips scum, I would be super happy.  That would be great.  But who would his partner(s) be?  If he flips town, what does that tell us about others?  Maybe it gives a few town points to those of us who didn't want to lynch him, but I don't see that as a reason to push his lynch.

So I think we just disagree here, on the respective values of the flips.

[Robz888]

Shraeye would not surprise me as the Serial Killer. He did really want to lynch the SK cop.