Theorel - you went from voting Sparky/TheMunch, to following him into voting Eevee. Please explain in more detail your current thoughts on each.
I voted Sparky because he hadn't posted. I left it there after his post because it seemed like too little (especially the comment he would be following followed by nothing). Then he replaced out to Munch. I have a null-read on Munch...which means I would lean slightly scummy on Sparky/Munch, since Sparky was slightly scummy before replacing out.
Before I go into Eevee I should state something else.
I strongly believe that there are mutliple scum teams in this game, or at the very least that if there is a single scum-team they
believe there is another scum team. I believe that this is why this game
feels weird. I think it was Galzria that stated people are posting more than usual. I think this is the effect of the scum trying to scum-hunt. I think that scum are NOT sitting back as much as usual, and I think this is the effect that others are noting. This is a major reason that I disagree with your town-read on Eevee and find my scum-read more compelling.
My view on Eevee:
1. Eevee does not seem like town-Eevee. He's described his town-meta well. He admitted earlier that he wasn't really playing like his town self, and claimed that he's trying to be a better town player (meaning he was trying to scum hunt better). I believe he is trying to more actively scum hunt. I will readily admit that this may be due to an active change in Eevee's play. I don't think that he should be lynched immediately, and if he suddenly picked up another two votes I would probably unvote. I'm content with him sitting at 4 votes though.
2. Eevee does not seem like scum-Eevee. I'm honestly willing to believe you here (I'm pretty sure I've never seen scum-Eevee in a game, so I don't really have that judgment). That said, the description you're assigning to scum-Eevee actually seems a lot like MXVII Eevee, which is probably why you were willing to almost-lynch him there...only he was town there.
I think Eevee seems over-eager to find scum, which to me is a multi-ball scum trait. Scum want to be on scum lynches that don't involve their own team. It's like bussing without the negative repercussions on your own team. Additionally, they want to leverage the fact that they don't have full knowledge of the set-up.
All that said, my primary purpose in voting for Eevee (as with any day1 vote) is to see what develops out of it. That's why I joined a wagon with other votes on it rather than voting for someone new. I primarily use my day1 vote to try to help create what appear to be viable lynches, and in doing so catch out survivalist tells. I've stated approximately as much in every game I've played as town, which is to say that I don't just stick my vote on my biggest scum-read and be done with it. Of course, now that I've stated this scum might be unwilling to join the Eevee-wagon because I'm trying to bait them into it. But then that might mean that scum ends up unwilling to join wagons. Which means that they're doing a poor job of trying to survive, because if they don't join wagons then they're leaving it completely up to town who to lynch. It will be easier for a bunch of townies to coalesce about a scum-lynch than for town to do so through scum direction, and hence they're more likely to be lynched because they're trying to avoid the bait. The thing about survivalist tells, is that they come from trying to survive better. If scum stops trying to survive, then I think that's essentially mission accomplished.
Random other theory-thing. Raerae stated that she thought scum would want the day to go longer so that they could "sow more confusion". This is utterly wrong. Scum want the day to end as soon as possible. The longer the day goes on the more likely they'll slip up somehow and the more likely they'll get lynched. Shorter days give town less information and less chance to scum-hunt. There is a limit to how long a day can be beneficial, at some point town needs concrete information to move forward (this is one reason that nolynch day1's are really bad). But to think that scum can use longer days to sow more confusion is just silly. It's like saying scum want to use night-kills to sow confusion. No, sometimes they just want to use Night-kills to eliminate threats.
If every day resulted in a single-wagon leading to a lynch I think that would be the greatest benefit to scum. The chances of that single wagon being one of them is relatively low. They'll limit the amount of false interactions they need to make up. This is a big part of the reason why scum tends to lurk (because they're faking interactions), and a big part of the reason that multi-ball changes it (they don't need to fake it except in the case of their partner). This means that longer days are almost exclusively to the benefit of town...because we'll build up more wagons giving scum more chances to be forced into faking their interactions with their partners, and giving us more chances to catch them faking it. I know that my biggest concern in MVI was not whether I was right or wrong on Insomniac (because I knew it was a valid read, whether he was scum or town). My biggest concern was that I'd get called out for my clumsy interactions with Robz.
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Topic: Mafia XIX: Deep Space Nine Mafia (Day 7) (Read 267360 times)