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[theblankman]

Not sure if there's any article covering this already, but...

I can't put my finger on where, but I've read somewhere that if there's a dominant $5 card, and you want to the best possible chance to get it on turn 3 or 4 after a 3/4 opening, that opening should just be Silver/Silver on most boards, or Silver/virtual-Silver (e.g. Militia). 

What I'm wondering about is: what if that key card costs $6, but you're still looking to buy one or two ASAP?  Turn 3/4 is less realistic for $6, but does anyone have words of wisdom for increasing your chance of getting $6 on the second reshuffle, i.e. turn 5/6? 

Example strategies where this might come up include BM + Hoard, BM + Goons, Border Village + Cultist/Torturer/Rabble/etc (in that last one, I've noticed that if both players get their first attack on the same shuffle, but one buys it at 5 and the other gets the free village, the player with the village usually wins, especially if the attack is Torturer). 

I guess if there's some consensus out there about how to do this, I'll compile it into a real article.  After we get there, it might also be worth considering other spending points.  Like what kind of openings lead quickest into decks built around King's Court?  Or how do you build an engine where all the pieces cost $4 or less, so you're not immediately worried about hitting $5? 

[Mic Qsenoch]

Probably the best cards for getting to $6+ on your early shuffles are the terminal draw cards, so Smithy, Courtyard, Masquerade, Envoy. Especially when paired with Silver. Baron can do it as well.

In theory the coin tokens (Candlestick Maker, Plaza) can help you hit $6 in your second reshuffle. In practice they are pretty hit or miss at doing it I find.

I find the situations where you really want to hit $6+ fairly uncommon. Border Village/Goons/Altar/King's Court/Forge/Expand are the main cases and Altar/Forge/Expand probably want to be bought the soonest. In many (most?) cases, getting your deck under control is more important than getting these pieces. The issue is when you need these pieces to get your deck under control.

[theblankman]

Thanks MicQ.  What about the 5-cost terminal draw cards?  Would you recommend something like Silver/Silver hoping for Rabble/Wharf/etc on the first shuffle, then a good shot at BV/Goons/Altar/KC/etc on the next?  How much does that depend on whether you're planning for BM, engine or something in between? 

[Mic Qsenoch]

Thanks MicQ.  What about the 5-cost terminal draw cards?  Would you recommend something like Silver/Silver hoping for Rabble/Wharf/etc on the first shuffle, then a good shot at BV/Goons/Altar/KC/etc on the next?  How much does that depend on whether you're planning for BM, engine or something in between?

Going for a Wharf is a great way to get above $6. And sometimes Silver/Silver will be the way to do it.

These questions extremely board dependent. I could try to generalize, but I think my advice would end up either as misleading or so vague it's useless. Maybe if you posted a few sample games or kingdoms, people could make suggestions on openings.

[Davio]

The opportunities where I would sacrifice steady development over getting an early critical card are rare - like what Feast offers us, or Death Cart. So in trying to get to $6, you should invest in cards that give a benefit even when you miss $6, or prepare your deck to be able the make the most out of the $6 once you get it.

Goons is often thought of as a critical early card, but it really isn't. Goons games tend to focus on the important multiple-Goons turns during the mid- and late-game more than they do on the early Militia-attack. If I'm getting a lucky $6 on T3/4, I'm probably skipping the Goons and getting an Upgrade/Junk Dealer instead.

If you're going for BM+Hoard, a card like Courtyard is a good buy regardless.
And well, getting a Wharf is also more often than not a good buy in its own right.

So think about whether you can do both: Try to get the $6 card and develop your deck in a natural way.

[-Stef-]

Horse Traders also can get you to $6 quickly (and quite reliably against a double urchin opening).

[theblankman]

Sounds like the general consensus is that unlike $5, $6+ is hard to hit quickly with high probability, and the cards at that price point are usually not ones you need to "race to" in the same way as, for example, elite $5 attacks.  So the answer to my question is really, "Just build your deck as well as possible overall and get the expensive cards when you're able." 

[eHalcyon]

Example strategies where this might come up include BM + Hoard, BM + Goons, Border Village + Cultist/Torturer/Rabble/etc (in that last one, I've noticed that if both players get their first attack on the same shuffle, but one buys it at 5 and the other gets the free village, the player with the village usually wins, especially if the attack is Torturer). 

Off topic, but is BV+Cultist actually that much better?  If BV is the only village, you'll typically have more Cultists than villages and thus it's common that the BV is just a dead card that gets in the way of Cultist chaining.  If there are other villages available and you want them to play multiple non-Cultist terminals, then the BV is less important.

[soulnet]

This is probably by design: A card that is really important to get ASAP (say, Witch) and costs $6 would be extremely swingy.

@Stef: How is HT good at getting you to $6? If you open HT+Silver, you need both in hand (and not 3 Estates) to hit $6. Better than Silver/Silver, but still not really likely to want it "just" to hit $6.

[theblankman]

Off topic, but is BV+Cultist actually that much better?  If BV is the only village, you'll typically have more Cultists than villages and thus it's common that the BV is just a dead card that gets in the way of Cultist chaining.  If there are other villages available and you want them to play multiple non-Cultist terminals, then the BV is less important.

BV+Cultist is better if there's another useful action that Cultist might draw, or another draw card that might get you more villages and Cultists.  While you're unlikely to spend $5 on something other than Cultist itself, with BV on the board you might buy cheaper actions on the way up to $5 instead of just opening Silver/Silver.  Courtyard or Smithy as MicQ mentioned above would fit the mold here, as would a decent Ruin trasher, or maybe a cheap attack like Militia.  And cheaper villages do make BV less important, but they also come with an opportunity cost; unlike BV you don't get another good piece when you buy them. 

[-Stef-]

@Stef: How is HT good at getting you to $6? If you open HT+Silver, you need both in hand (and not 3 Estates) to hit $6. Better than Silver/Silver, but still not really likely to want it "just" to hit $6.

like this.

(fixed url)

[Awaclus]

@Stef: How is HT good at getting you to $6? If you open HT+Silver, you need both in hand (and not 3 Estates) to hit $6. Better than Silver/Silver, but still not really likely to want it "just" to hit $6.

like this.

404.

[hvb]

if you open double silver or silver/terminal silver your chances should be over 40 % to hit 6 $ on turn 3 or 4.

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

P.S. I am still wondering. 42.4 % seems really high. Maybe anyone with statistical knowledge can check that?

[Awaclus]

if you open double silver or silver/terminal silver your chances should be over 40 % to hit 6 $ on turn 3 or 4.

http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

P.S. I am still wondering. 42.4 % seems really high. Maybe anyone with statistical knowledge can check that?

You need either Silver + 4 Coppers or Silver, Silver and 2 Coppers in a hand of 5 cards. I'm too lazy to do the math right now, but it should be higher than the odds of terminal collision.

[terminalCopper]

First observation: You can't draw 6 or more both in T3 and T4, thus the total probability of drawing 6 or more is exactly the sum of the probability to do so in T3 plus the probability in T4.
Because of symmetry we only have to calculate the prob to hit 6+ in T3 and multiply it with 2 afterwards.

There's 792 (12 choose 5) possible hands for T3, if we note S=Silver, C =copper, E=estate you get to 6+ with SSCCE, SSCCC or SCCCC. The number of possible combinations:

SSCCE: (2 choose 2)*(7 choose 2)* (3 choose 1) = 1*21*3=63
SSCCC: (2 choose 2)* (7 choose 3) = 1*35=35
SCCCC: (2 choose 1)* (7 choose 4)= 2*35=70

thus the probability to hit 6+ at T3 is (63+35+70)/792 = 0.212121...

Multiplying with 2 leads to 42.42%.

[SCSN]

@Stef: How is HT good at getting you to $6? If you open HT+Silver, you need both in hand (and not 3 Estates) to hit $6. Better than Silver/Silver, but still not really likely to want it "just" to hit $6.

like this.

(fixed url)

I don't understand your opening, triple Urchin looks so much better? You'd have been completely toast had your opponent gone for Minstrels on T5 and 6 instead of Silvers Curses. With Minstrel's cycling and 2 Mercs you should get to the point were you actually welcome your opponent's Mountebanks b.c. of the Merc fodder fairly quickly.

[Stealth Tomato]

@Stef: How is HT good at getting you to $6? If you open HT+Silver, you need both in hand (and not 3 Estates) to hit $6. Better than Silver/Silver, but still not really likely to want it "just" to hit $6.

like this.

(fixed url)

Against double-Urchin is an extreme edge case; very rarely do decks open two attacks, and anything that doesn't is going to give you pretty slim odds of a $6 HT hand.

e: welp, this is a pretty old thread. Oh well.

[soulnet]

Against double-Urchin is an extreme edge case; very rarely do decks open two attacks, and anything that doesn't is going to give you pretty slim odds of a $6 HT hand.

Double Ambassador is extremely common, and double Swindler or Swindler/$4 Attack (Marauder or Sea Hag) is pretty common as well. Most of them, especially double Amb, are probably more common than double Urchin.

[Stealth Tomato]

Against double-Urchin is an extreme edge case; very rarely do decks open two attacks, and anything that doesn't is going to give you pretty slim odds of a $6 HT hand.

Double Ambassador is extremely common, and double Swindler or Swindler/$4 Attack (Marauder or Sea Hag) is pretty common as well. Most of them, especially double Amb, are probably more common than double Urchin.

Yeah, but all of these except double-Amb are substantially bad ideas on most Horse Traders boards (and most other boards, actually), and I'd contend that double-Amb probably is as well.

[c4master]

Against double-Urchin is an extreme edge case; very rarely do decks open two attacks, and anything that doesn't is going to give you pretty slim odds of a $6 HT hand.

Double Ambassador is extremely common, and double Swindler or Swindler/$4 Attack (Marauder or Sea Hag) is pretty common as well. Most of them, especially double Amb, are probably more common than double Urchin.

Yeah, but all of these except double-Amb are substantially bad ideas on most Horse Traders boards (and most other boards, actually), and I'd contend that double-Amb probably is as well.

I do not believe this. HT doesn't defend against junking attacks and once you're junked, you won't be likely to have your HT in your hand when your being attacked.

[SCSN]

I don't buy it either. The presence of HT has zero effect on how likely I am to open either double Amb or double Swindler (which is the best open on most of the Swindler boards).

[Awaclus]

I don't buy it either. The presence of HT has zero effect on how likely I am to open either double Amb or double Swindler (which is the best open on most of the Swindler boards).

Yeah. HT is a nice counter against discarding attacks since it removes itself from the hand temporarily, but it's much weaker against junking, since the +1 card, especially in the early game, is nowhere near as good as putting an extra junk card in your opponent's deck. Soothsayer has it built in and it still hurts.

HT's on-play ability basically "turns" the card itself and two others into Coppers, so it's kind of almost good against Curses, Ruins and Estates, but Copper is still a card you don't want to have in your deck, so I don't think that matters a lot.