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[Eevee]

Cayvie, would the Ace of Wands be immune to the King of Swords?

Edge cases, edge cases everywhere!

[cayvie]

Cayvie, would the Ace of Wands be immune to the King of Swords?

yes

[Robz888]

Guys, you are all getting confused. It's not like I had to use the dayvig before I died, that's not the issue. The issue was, if I used my dayvig and was correct in killing scum, it would clear me because Insomniac says there is exactly one scum between me, Eevee, and Galz. I wasn't trying to get off my shot before I died, I was trying to kill the true mafia in that group of 3, which would have forestalled my lynch and cleared Galz. Only Eevee was not scum, which surprises me, but luckily he's bulletproof so we actually come out okay.

I will say Galz is pressing way harder than he normally would.  And if we believe insom, there's still scum to be found between Robz and Galz. 

So...Galz is killing someone tonight, because he's either the vig who wants to prove himself or scum, right?  So the risk there is he's scum and we leave him alive or he's town vig who kills someone who on his own...or he's the scum vig, and he's scum.  So 2 out of 3 chances he's scum...is that right?

Robz has no shots left anyway, scum or town, since the dayvigs are all one shots, unless I missed a card on that list.  So he's neutered scum goon, or VT.  So 1 in 2 chances he's scum?

So my math says 66.6% chance that Galz is scum and 50% chance Robz is scum?  Is that right or am I way off?

There's just a 50% chance that I'm scum and a 50% chance that Galz is scum, based on Insomniac's information.

[Eevee]

Cayvie, would the Ace of Wands be immune to the King of Swords?

yes
[/quote
Would you give a QT to a serial killer? Some mods do.

[Archetype]

There's the scumdayvig and the towndayvig. Robz tries to pass himself off as the towndayvig, but the way he used it seemed like he was in a rush, and would be worried that he wouldn't be able to use his dayvig. Towndayvig wouldn't have had to worry about that. Vigginig is often a negative utility, so it's not too big of a deal if they got lynched without using their dayvig.

Archetype, your powers of observation staggering, truly staggering! Once again:

Sweet let's do this. Everybody vote Robz quickly!

You were at, what? L-8? L-5? You could have told them to just hold and it and talk with everyone about who you want to dayvig instead of just rushing into it. Thankfully, Eevee was Bulletproof, but still, if you flip Town, rushing into it like that was a bad idea.

I was at L-4, Axxle had signaled intent to vote me, and then I stopped reading and quickly vigged.

Fair enough. I still don't think that was the best Town play. But if you were for sure Eevee was scum, then I guess you had to do it. I still think you should have talked it over. Like you, and many other people have said in various other games: Vigging is dangerous.

[Robz888]

yeah, because L-4 30 hours into Day1 is a really good time to assume you're going to get lynched

QUICK EVERYONE, KILL SHRAEYE BEFORE HE SPEAKS AGAIN.

Vote: shraeye
Vote: shraeye
Vote: shraeye
Vote: shraeye
Vote: shraeye

[Robz888]

End demonstration. Vote: Galzria

[Eevee]

Why are you trying to use math like that, people? The way Galz and Robz have acted matters WAY more than how many possible roles there are in the setup. Basically, both are claiming x, and either are that or are lying. Yes or no. Our job is to determine which is lying based on their behavior and such. I think it's Robz.

[Archetype]

You were at, what? L-8? L-5? You could have told them to just hold and it and talk with everyone about who you want to dayvig instead of just rushing into it. Thankfully, Eevee was Bulletproof, but still, if you flip Town, rushing into it like that was a bad idea.

You think I WAS RUSHING?

Sweet let's do this. Everybody vote Robz quickly!

Ok, I agree that Jo pressuring you like that was preeeeetty crappy, but if you are scum, I think that it was the right thing to do.

[Robz888]

There's the scumdayvig and the towndayvig. Robz tries to pass himself off as the towndayvig, but the way he used it seemed like he was in a rush, and would be worried that he wouldn't be able to use his dayvig. Towndayvig wouldn't have had to worry about that. Vigginig is often a negative utility, so it's not too big of a deal if they got lynched without using their dayvig.

Archetype, your powers of observation staggering, truly staggering! Once again:

Sweet let's do this. Everybody vote Robz quickly!

You were at, what? L-8? L-5? You could have told them to just hold and it and talk with everyone about who you want to dayvig instead of just rushing into it. Thankfully, Eevee was Bulletproof, but still, if you flip Town, rushing into it like that was a bad idea.

I was at L-4, Axxle had signaled intent to vote me, and then I stopped reading and quickly vigged.

Fair enough. I still don't think that was the best Town play. But if you were for sure Eevee was scum, then I guess you had to do it. I still think you should have talked it over. Like you, and many other people have said in various other games: Vigging is dangerous.

Yes, but you have to think about what makes it dangerous.

In the early game, in a large game, if a Vig shoots night 1, it's not actually that dangerous. The game probably doesn't hinge on it. The thing is, you just are probably going to kill town. So it's not super dangerous, but it's probably not good. Late-game, it can be good, because you have more information, but it is way more dangerous.

So what we had here was a very, very unique circumstance where it wasn't particularly dangerous--this was early game--but we had good information--a 1 in 2 chance of hitting scum, from my perspective. I know I am Mr. Anti-Vig, but I think it's fairly reasonable that this is an edge case here. This is like Counting House on a Mountebank board or something.

[Robz888]

Ignore the above, here it is fixed:

Yes, but you have to think about what makes it dangerous.

In the early game, in a large game, if a Vig shoots night 1, it's not actually that dangerous. The game probably doesn't hinge on it. The thing is, you just are probably going to kill town. So it's not super dangerous, but it's probably not good. Late-game, it can be good, because you have more information, but it is way more dangerous.

So what we had here was a very, very unique circumstance where it wasn't particularly dangerous--this was early game--but we had good information--a 1 in 2 chance of hitting scum, from my perspective. I know I am Mr. Anti-Vig, but I think it's fairly reasonable that this is an edge case here. This is like Counting House on a Mountebank board or something.

[Galzria]

Cayvie, would the Ace of Wands be immune to the King of Swords?

yes

Then from my perspective:

Town!Robz would kill all iterations of Town!Eevee except Nine of Swords. But cannot both be town, so this does not work.

Scum!Robz can not kill Eevee if Eevee is the 5 of Swords (Town!Eevee), or the Ace of Swords (SK!Eevee).

There is no world where Eevee is scum, and Robz is town. Ergo from my perspective, it's proven that Robz is scum. The problem town faces, is that Eevee has a 50% chance of being a SK.

Town: I suggest we lynch Robz, and I'll still NK Eevee. This cannot be stopped. I believe the reason Eevee agreed to this earlier is that he's the Ace of Swords, and he knew that one of two things was true: Robz was scum, and would flip such, making me inclined not to shoot him, OR, Robz was town, meaning I was lying scum, and could not Strong-Man Big him. In either case, he was likely safe.

If town does not wish to follow this plan, I'm willing to lynch myself. You lose my NK, but you have one confirmed scum (Robz), and one likely in Eevee (although not guaranteed. I suggest he gets Copped).

[ashersky]

In the early game, in a large game, if a Vig shoots night 1, it's not actually that dangerous. The game probably doesn't hinge on it. The thing is, you just are probably going to kill town. So it's not super dangerous, but it's probably not good. Late-game, it can be good, because you have more information, but it is way more dangerous.

So what we had here was a very, very unique circumstance where it wasn't particularly dangerous--this was early game--but we had good information--a 1 in 2 chance of hitting scum, from my perspective. I know I am Mr. Anti-Vig, but I think it's fairly reasonable that this is an edge case here. This is like Counting House on a Mountebank board or something.

I assume this was you talking.

This is completely at odds with Robz888.  Do you not remember your rage at vigs shooting N1?  Look at MXVII D1.  Look at every other game with a vig.  Look at you still blaming me for town's loss in Waffle Mafia.  You do not support vigs shooting D1.  Hence, you come off really scummy today having claimed Vig, shot as a Vig, and not articulating reasoning for why it's okay to shoot D1 or N1.

You have come off your own rails, man.  It's like you are purposefully trying to change your meta to throw us off...oh wait.

[ashersky]

Town: I suggest we lynch Robz, and I'll still NK Eevee. This cannot be stopped. I believe the reason Eevee agreed to this earlier is that he's the Ace of Swords, and he knew that one of two things was true: Robz was scum, and would flip such, making me inclined not to shoot him, OR, Robz was town, meaning I was lying scum, and could not Strong-Man Big him. In either case, he was likely safe.

I'm okay with this, with the caveat that we lynch you D2 if things go fishy.

[Archetype]

Why are you trying to use math like that, people? The way Galz and Robz have acted matters WAY more than how many possible roles there are in the setup. Basically, both are claiming x, and either are that or are lying. Yes or no. Our job is to determine which is lying based on their behavior and such. I think it's Robz.

And if we lynch one and he turns up Town, then we lynch the other.

If Robz turns up town, lynching him wouldn't be too big of a loss. He would be essentially a VT, and that would be better than losing Galzria if he's the Town Vig.

Also, if Robz turns up Town, Eevee's an IC.

[Robz888]

In the early game, in a large game, if a Vig shoots night 1, it's not actually that dangerous. The game probably doesn't hinge on it. The thing is, you just are probably going to kill town. So it's not super dangerous, but it's probably not good. Late-game, it can be good, because you have more information, but it is way more dangerous.

So what we had here was a very, very unique circumstance where it wasn't particularly dangerous--this was early game--but we had good information--a 1 in 2 chance of hitting scum, from my perspective. I know I am Mr. Anti-Vig, but I think it's fairly reasonable that this is an edge case here. This is like Counting House on a Mountebank board or something.

I assume this was you talking.

This is completely at odds with Robz888.  Do you not remember your rage at vigs shooting N1?  Look at MXVII D1.  Look at every other game with a vig.  Look at you still blaming me for town's loss in Waffle Mafia.  You do not support vigs shooting D1.  Hence, you come off really scummy today having claimed Vig, shot as a Vig, and not articulating reasoning for why it's okay to shoot D1 or N1.

You have come off your own rails, man.  It's like you are purposefully trying to change your meta to throw us off...oh wait.

In Waffle Mafia, if you had reliable information somehow that either Cayvie or Grujah were mafia for sure, then I would not have blamed you for shooting Cayvie. You didn't have that then, but I had that here.

[Galzria]

Crickets

Where did everybody go? No thoughts on the above?

[Robz888]

I guess the objective best plan (best if you don't know that I am not scum), is to lynch me, have Galzria shoot Insomniac, and lynch Galzria tomorrow depending on my flip and Insomniac's. A redirector could mess up the Insomniac part, though.

[Eevee]

I guess the objective best plan (best if you don't know that I am not scum), is to lynch me, have Galzria shoot Insomniac, and lynch Galzria tomorrow depending on my flip and Insomniac's. A redirector could mess up the Insomniac part, though.

Uh no strongmaning claimed major arcanas!? We dont know he has told us everything about his role..

Galzria yes and will comment when I get a break from the poker action.

[Robz888]

Blargh. Galzria is scum unless Insomniac did something crazy (that is totally working). What can I say to convince you people?

I actually care more about convincing you that my play was not bad, because my pride is wounded (if Voltgloss scolds me, I will cry).

[Cuzz]

What the actual f**k?

Most absurd D1 ever.

Can we get a 100% fully detailed claim from Insomniac please? Or did I miss something?

[Galzria]

Blargh. Galzria is scum unless Insomniac did something crazy (that is totally working). What can I say to convince you people?

I actually care more about convincing you that my play was not bad, because my pride is wounded (if Voltgloss scolds me, I will cry).

Willing to lynch myself right now to prove you 100% scum, buddy, so don't give me this line about hurt pride.

[Robz888]

Blargh. Galzria is scum unless Insomniac did something crazy (that is totally working). What can I say to convince you people?

I actually care more about convincing you that my play was not bad, because my pride is wounded (if Voltgloss scolds me, I will cry).

Willing to lynch myself right now to prove you 100% scum, buddy, so don't give me this line about hurt pride.

Agreed. Then do it. Vote for yourself.

[Robz888]

Come on Galz, where's the self-vote? Let's see it, please.

[Eevee]

Come on Galz, where's the self-vote? Let's see it, please.

And don't forget to bold it! /zing


(Kidding, don't do it.)