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Author Topic: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Werewolves win!)  (Read 109894 times)

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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #425 on: December 28, 2012, 09:51:03 am »

or, well, he'll than argue that you lied and are actually a sword and not a pentacle.. blah.

So, if Galz lying screws you up, jo, than there is no point in claim, i think, as it would boil down to we lynch one of them, and if we miss, we lynch another one.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #426 on: December 28, 2012, 10:08:59 am »

Joth, you'll have to forgive my concern on this. I don't at all support it after the outcome of Arcana I, when after days of working town to a slam dunk win, we got overpowered by Death, who was an SK variant that got a permanent +1 (hidden) vote for every Wand (or whatever suit it was) he killed. As it was, he ended up with 4 votes at the end of the game, and it could've been more had we actually suit claimed.

And yes, this is coming from a guy who has already claimed card AND suit. Cayvie hates mass-claims. She has since we seat claimed in BMMM. She went out of her way to put a role like Death in the last game to discourage us from claiming, and she has said (thanks for the quote earlier Volt) that we should expect similar in her future Arcana games. I'm afraid I must stand against this.

Certainly its possible that that's the case. But as I said, if it's exactly the same thing, I have reason to believe its not a concern here. This is one suit out of four, the chance that its the one cayvie's set up a check for is slim, I would say.

or, well, he'll than argue that you lied and are actually a sword and not a pentacle.. blah.

So, if Galz lying screws you up, jo, than there is no point in claim, i think, as it would boil down to we lynch one of them, and if we miss, we lynch another one.

That is a good point. Fine we'll drop it.

Ok, I think we have to lynch Robz. Because, barring Major Arcana shenanigans, a Robz townflip clears Eevee. A Robz WW flip makes Eevee SK a strong possibility. A Galz flip is just not that informational.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #427 on: December 28, 2012, 10:11:21 am »

Why strong? Or rather, how do you define strong?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #428 on: December 28, 2012, 10:18:23 am »

1) Your reluctance to claim (leaving your options open against a BP townie counterclaim)
2) Your eagerness to quicklynch Robz BEFORE he could fire, despite being immune to his shot

To explain: If you're a werewolf-immune SK and you think Robz might be a werewolf, you don't want him to shoot you at all, because that fingers you. Best case scenario would have been Robz flipping wolf without you having to tip your hand on your BP-ness at all, and you were certainly eager to pursue that avenue.

As town BP, I don't think you would have feared being dayvigged. You could have taken your time with the Robz lynch.

If you ARE town BP, I certainly want to clear you, because no one but Galz can kill you and if he does, we'll know it was him. Having a BP IC around sounds pretty great.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #429 on: December 28, 2012, 10:19:50 am »

My take on everything here is as such:

My gut says Galz is scummy....

But my mind and logic is saying that Robz is scummy....

I think lynching Robz is our best bet at this point because it is a 50% chance of him being scum (either WW day vig or the 5 of wands day vig) and 50% chance of him being scum (out of him and Galz, as I don't think Eevee has a QT). And if Robz is the 5 of wands... well he was a one-shot, so he is basically a VT at this point and it isn't the end of the world to Day 1 lynch a VT--that is pretty much normal, right--and it basically guarantees a lynch of scum!Galz tomorrow.

However, we should absolutely wait until Insomniac shows up before doing anything. We also should not claim.

In summary, I am willing to vote Robz, but will not do so until Insomniac shows up--barring something crazy from him of course.
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Voltgloss

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #430 on: December 28, 2012, 11:02:47 am »

I tend to agree that the Robz lynch is what we need today, because of what it tells us about Eevee's - and, by extension, Galz's - alignment.  I think it guarantees us a scumkill no later than Day 2's lynch, i.e.:

1.  If Robz is scum, we lynch him, hooray, we hit scum.

2.  If Robz is town, and Galz is town, then Galz knows to strongman vig Eevee (assuming Insom is telling the truth).  If Eevee flips scum, hooray, we hit scum.  If Eevee flips town, we can still confirm Galz's strongman vigginess via the flavour and the kill piercing Eevee's bulletproof, which means that Insom is our lynch for Day 2.

3.  If Robz is town, and Galz is scum, then Galz does not have a strongman kill (unless Galz is Major Arcana, which I find rather unlikely).  So there shouldn't be a strongman-flavoured kill in the night - and in particular, there shouldn't be a way for Galz and his faction to kill Eevee - which is our cue to lynch Galz on Day 2, hitting scum.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #431 on: December 28, 2012, 11:24:29 am »

I am the magician. I know two spells and learn more when a certain suit dies. They get more powerful as more people of that suit die.
I believe it is robz that is scum but it COULD be Galz or Eevee. So having a qt is not out of the realm of possibilities
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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #432 on: December 28, 2012, 11:24:59 am »

Have to drive now but ill post full claim and why it could be Galz in 30~
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #433 on: December 28, 2012, 11:28:46 am »

A town-aligned major arcana gets powered up by wiping out a whole suit? ???
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #434 on: December 28, 2012, 11:29:12 am »

I tend to agree that the Robz lynch is what we need today, because of what it tells us about Eevee's - and, by extension, Galz's - alignment.  I think it guarantees us a scumkill no later than Day 2's lynch, i.e.:

1.  If Robz is scum, we lynch him, hooray, we hit scum.

2.  If Robz is town, and Galz is town, then Galz knows to strongman vig Eevee (assuming Insom is telling the truth).  If Eevee flips scum, hooray, we hit scum.  If Eevee flips town, we can still confirm Galz's strongman vigginess via the flavour and the kill piercing Eevee's bulletproof, which means that Insom is our lynch for Day 2.

3.  If Robz is town, and Galz is scum, then Galz does not have a strongman kill (unless Galz is Major Arcana, which I find rather unlikely).  So there shouldn't be a strongman-flavoured kill in the night - and in particular, there shouldn't be a way for Galz and his faction to kill Eevee - which is our cue to lynch Galz on Day 2, hitting scum.

This. Vote: Robz888
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #435 on: December 28, 2012, 11:37:13 am »

I tend to agree that the Robz lynch is what we need today, because of what it tells us about Eevee's - and, by extension, Galz's - alignment.  I think it guarantees us a scumkill no later than Day 2's lynch, i.e.:

1.  If Robz is scum, we lynch him, hooray, we hit scum.

2.  If Robz is town, and Galz is town, then Galz knows to strongman vig Eevee (assuming Insom is telling the truth).  If Eevee flips scum, hooray, we hit scum.  If Eevee flips town, we can still confirm Galz's strongman vigginess via the flavour and the kill piercing Eevee's bulletproof, which means that Insom is our lynch for Day 2.

3.  If Robz is town, and Galz is scum, then Galz does not have a strongman kill (unless Galz is Major Arcana, which I find rather unlikely).  So there shouldn't be a strongman-flavoured kill in the night - and in particular, there shouldn't be a way for Galz and his faction to kill Eevee - which is our cue to lynch Galz on Day 2, hitting scum.

Okay fine you need to lynch me I guess, great.

After I flip, Galzria should NOT shoot Eevee, if Galz is actually also town. He should shoot Insomniac.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #436 on: December 28, 2012, 11:40:30 am »

vote count please!
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #437 on: December 28, 2012, 11:41:54 am »

I still have to say though, do you guys actually think I would have painted myself into this corner as scum? If I am scum, I am the scum implicated by inomniac's investigation, and all my actions--my claim, my vigging--served only to further implicate myself.

Do you think scum Robz would fall into this trap so easily? Doesn't a town!Robz, desperate to clear himself by shooting probscum, fit the narrative better?

It is in fact this logic that gives me lingering suspicions about insomniac. Because Galzria had put himself in this same corner (although perhaps it happened to him by default, since he didn't know I would be day shot). Because I can't see how scum!galz escapes this, I just worry scum galz is not actually scum. And in that case I am just marveling at insomniac's brilliant scum play.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #438 on: December 28, 2012, 11:51:56 am »

I am the Wizard yes that means as Major Arcana I AM claiming on day 1 (A further note, I didn't realize I was Major Arcana when I decided to do this, but whatever there's probably a doctor and WIFOM and all that [Jailkeeping me prevents me from using a spell but would keep me alive]), each night I can memorize a spell, including Night 0 to use on the following day. My choices last night were Detect Magic, and Detect Secret Doors.

Detect Magic allows me to pick a suit and everyone in that suit gets revealed. (not their cards just that they are in that suit.
Detect Secret Doors allows me to pm the names of 3 players to the mod and find out how many of them have access to a quicktopic.

I picked Detect Secret Doors last night, I decided to investigate the 3 players I mentioned. I found out that between the 3 of them they have access to ONE quicktopic, meaning that ONE of them is scum and TWO of them ARE town. This is MUCH stronger than a town OR a scum result in my opinion.

So IF we do this right, we get 3 IC's and 1 scum right off the bat.

IT IS possible that I have found a mason/lover but I still think its far more likely that they are scum, because to be a mason/lover requires that we HAVE that AND that one of them rolled it. Based on their replies I think this unlikely.

Based on the replies I feel comfortable with a Vote: Galzria
Robz seems town based on his reply to number my second question and his desire to claim early.


To clarify my result is NOT just a scum result, it is indeed TWO town results AND a SCUM result.

I need the towns help to determine who is what though.
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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #439 on: December 28, 2012, 11:52:12 am »

^^ was the claim I had planned before I had to do it via phone
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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #440 on: December 28, 2012, 11:53:10 am »

Future Spells: Detect Thoughts, Clairvoyance, Locate Creature, Telepathic Bond, True Seeing, Vision.

I learn a spell whenever someone in the suit of Cups dies.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #441 on: December 28, 2012, 11:53:24 am »

I do not know what my future spells do.
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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #442 on: December 28, 2012, 11:56:15 am »

Why? Because if you're scum and already resigned to your fate, your best option is to shoot, and hope you find scum. If not, you were dead anyway. If you did find scum, then you got to live. It's win/win for your faction.

There is one qt between the 3 of you, if Robz is scum he has a 0% chance of hitting scum so this wording made me VERY uneasy
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #443 on: December 28, 2012, 11:56:22 am »

Insomniac, have you read the last 10 pages?

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #444 on: December 28, 2012, 11:57:04 am »

I have Galz.
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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #445 on: December 28, 2012, 11:57:21 am »

But there is no wizard.
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #446 on: December 28, 2012, 11:59:06 am »

Robz wanting to Vig me is ridiculous. YES my claim makes me more like death, I promise I'm town and this isn't a gambit.

Pros to lynching Robz: He wants to vig me, didn't note a role in the list he keeps toting everyone to know, and tried to dayvig eevee when there was no consensus

Pros to lynching Galz: The wording above was used TWICE. Because there is only one QT between the 3 players it is IMPOSSIBLE for Robz to be scum and also vig scum, although I still think Robz would have dayvigged as scum.

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #447 on: December 28, 2012, 11:59:17 am »

But there is no wizard.

My role name is wizard, my card is magician
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #448 on: December 28, 2012, 12:00:37 pm »

Vote: Galzria

Let's do this then. Congrats Robz on living out the Day, and fooling Insomniac into thinking that it makes more sense that my 5th post of the game would be to full-fake-claim with 0 votes on me, then it does for you to be a WW (which is 50% of the time from every players perspective, although 100% from mine).

Once the town (sorry Robz, your voice counts for nothing here) decides on the below, I'll be happy to. Until then, there's little point arguing with scum attempting to goad along a lynch.

Cayvie, would the Ace of Wands be immune to the King of Swords?

yes

Then from my perspective:

Town!Robz would kill all iterations of Town!Eevee except Nine of Swords. But cannot both be town, so this does not work.

Scum!Robz can not kill Eevee if Eevee is the 5 of Swords (Town!Eevee), or the Ace of Swords (SK!Eevee).

There is no world where Eevee is scum, and Robz is town. Ergo from my perspective, it's proven that Robz is scum. The problem town faces, is that Eevee has a 50% chance of being a SK.

Town: I suggest we lynch Robz, and I'll still NK Eevee. This cannot be stopped. I believe the reason Eevee agreed to this earlier is that he's the Ace of Swords, and he knew that one of two things was true: Robz was scum, and would flip such, making me inclined not to shoot him, OR, Robz was town, meaning I was lying scum, and could not Strong-Man Big him. In either case, he was likely safe.

If town does not wish to follow this plan, I'm willing to lynch myself. You lose my NK, but you have one confirmed scum (Robz), and one likely in Eevee (although not guaranteed. I suggest he gets Copped).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia XVIII: Major Arcana Mafia II (Day 1! Deadline 1/9/13, 3 PM forums time)
« Reply #449 on: December 28, 2012, 12:01:42 pm »

Robz is WW. Eevee is SK.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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