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[Grujah]

Also, why didn't you claim before getting shot, Fuzzy?

For what you know, you might just as well wasted a town day-kill for nothing.

[Eevee]

I am not giving Galzria the permission to shoot Insomniac if Robz flips town. If Robz is town, the most likely explanation is that Galzria is scum (Insomniac may be too, but I doubt he lied about the result).

most likely?
Unless Ins made everything up, YOU must say that it is THE ONLY explanation.

YEAH AND PEOPLE WANT TO GIVE HIM THE PERMISSION TO SHOOT INSOMNIAC!? Don't you see how terrible that is, scumGalzria would just say "well, I know I'm town so Ins had to be scum, what was I to do". If we tell Galzria now that if he shoots Ins, we will KNOW he is scum, at least he can't use his vig powers on a freaking major arcana while saying "because I know I'm town, it was the right move". Again, hopefully and I would also say probably this is all academic because Robz is scum.

I didnt claim for the same reason I still havent. (And also didnt really expect Robz to shoot like that, it was a ridiculously scummy move. If we "wasted a town day kill", I'm going to say it was Robz's fault not mine.)

[Jimmmmm]

I am not giving Galzria the permission to shoot Insomniac if Robz flips town. If Robz is town, the most likely explanation is that Galzria is scum (Insomniac may be too, but I doubt he lied about the result).

most likely?
Unless Ins made everything up, YOU must say that it is THE ONLY explanation.

YEAH AND PEOPLE WANT TO GIVE HIM THE PERMISSION TO SHOOT INSOMNIAC!? Don't you see how terrible that is, scumGalzria would just say "well, I know I'm town so Ins had to be scum, what was I to do". If we tell Galzria now that if he shoots Ins, we will KNOW he is scum, at least he can't use his vig powers on a freaking major arcana while saying "because I know I'm town, it was the right move".

I disagree. If Robz and Galz are both Town, I don't really see any way for Insom to be. If Robz is Town and Galz is scum, his team is going to do what they want to do, regardless of what others are telling them to. If they kill Insom, it won't be because we told them to. If Robz flips Town tonight and Insom flips Town tomorrow morning, I'm going for the Galz lynch, pretty much regardless of what he says. "You told me to kill Insom" will have zero weight.

[Eevee]

I am not giving Galzria the permission to shoot Insomniac if Robz flips town. If Robz is town, the most likely explanation is that Galzria is scum (Insomniac may be too, but I doubt he lied about the result).

most likely?
Unless Ins made everything up, YOU must say that it is THE ONLY explanation.

YEAH AND PEOPLE WANT TO GIVE HIM THE PERMISSION TO SHOOT INSOMNIAC!? Don't you see how terrible that is, scumGalzria would just say "well, I know I'm town so Ins had to be scum, what was I to do". If we tell Galzria now that if he shoots Ins, we will KNOW he is scum, at least he can't use his vig powers on a freaking major arcana while saying "because I know I'm town, it was the right move".

I disagree. If Robz and Galz are both Town, I don't really see any way for Insom to be. If Robz is Town and Galz is scum, his team is going to do what they want to do, regardless of what others are telling them to. If they kill Insom, it won't be because we told them to. If Robz flips Town tonight and Insom flips Town tomorrow morning, I'm going for the Galz lynch, pretty much regardless of what he says. "You told me to kill Insom" will have zero weight.

Uhm yeah I guess you are right actually. Doesn't really matter much anyways, I think it's very super unlikely they are both town anyways. And in that case Insomniac has got to be scum. So sure, you were right, sorry.

[Eevee]

It didn't occur to me Insomniac probably realized he was painting a target in his back when he claimed..

[Grujah]

BTW. Am I only one who like.. almost completely disregards Ins = made up the claim thing? I just dont see anyone doing that straigh out d1.

[Jimmmmm]

BTW. Am I only one who like.. almost completely disregards Ins = made up the claim thing? I just dont see anyone doing that straigh out d1.

As soon as I read Insom's claiming I thought it was very unlikely he was making it up. He must have known he was making himself a target for (likely) two scumteams (or one if he's in the other), and thought sharing the information he had was worth it. So I didn't completely disregard the idea, but like I said, I didn't have a particular reason to disbelieve him.

So as I see it here are the four possibilities in order of likelihood:

1: Robz is scum, the other three (Galz, Insom and Eevee) are Town.
2: Galz is scum, the other three are Town (and telling Galz what to do with his NK is irrelevant).
3: Insom is scum. I suppose this could mean any number of the other three are scum, but for now we won't get to this conclusion unless Robz flips Town and Galz is Town (and then only he'll get to it, but luckily he'll be able to do something about it).
4: Eevee is some sort of scum Major Role. God help us all.

But mostly: Either Robz or Galz is scum, and the best candidate is Robz.

[Jimmmmm]

Uhm yeah I guess you are right actually. Doesn't really matter much anyways, I think it's very super unlikely they are both town anyways. And in that case Insomniac has got to be scum. So sure, you were right, sorry.

Oh and cheers. It's nice when you make an argument and the other person concedes the point, especially on the internet. Respect to anyone who's willing to do that, and I'm pretty sure I've seen you do it before.

[Galzria]

I would really like for Robz to flip scum too. Having Galzria as a confirmed townie is.. pretty good.

Also, I'd instruct some investigative tool to check Insomniac tonight. His role might be very powerful, so it would be extra useful to know if he is with town or not. Robz's suggestion of vigging him tonight is something I just cant understand.. he claimed a major arcana ffs! But if it was scum Robz being desperate, maybe I dont need to understand. Still, it's important to remember in a two scum team game he isn't a confirmed townie even if we catch scum with his intel. I actually don't think it tells anything of his alignment yet, although obviously finding scum for us is very pro town.

And Ins, the questions for you were a) what's your actual card b) what do you think of the developments and c) anything else you think you should claim about your role today before we lynch Robz?

Although it's already been explained fully, but town!Robz is backed into insisting that you must be town at this point. There is nothing in existence other than bullet-proof VT that could save you from a Town!Robz Dayvig. Because of this, from his perspective, he must insist I'm scum.

I get that, of course. But if you kill me, and I flip town, them what can Scum!Robz do to defend himself? His only recourse is to attack Insomniac since he "knows" that you're town. Likewise, he must continue to insist that if we lynch him, and he flips town, then I should shoot Insomniac if I'm also town - which is, as has been explained, accurate.

So his insistence that Insomniac be killed stems from my being revealed as town. The problem is that the line of thought is applicable to both scum!Robz, and town!Robz, because at this point both must front a face of Eevee is absolutely obvtown. This is, of course, only true if Robz is town. If he's scum, Eevee has a 50% chance of being a SK.

[Galzria]

Added on to the above, it should be noted that SK!Eevee knows for a fact that Robz is a WW at this point.

[Voltgloss]

I am here now, phoneposting.  That was about 250 posts while I was asleep.  Went to bed before Eevee's claim and missed all the ensuing hijinks.

I am mulling further on my commute, but one thing that stands out to me as weird is Eevee's reluctance to claim.  If he were the "ordinary" bulletproof townie, I don't see why he wouldn't claim that at this juncture.  We know he's bulletproof - he would just be confirming what we already know.

So this has me concerned that Eevee is either the WW-immune SK, or a Major Arcana with bulletproof.  If Major, then his alignment is a big question mark.

[Grujah]

I am mulling further on my commute, but one thing that stands out to me as weird is Eevee's reluctance to claim.  If he were the "ordinary" bulletproof townie, I don't see why he wouldn't claim that at this juncture.  We know he's bulletproof - he would just be confirming what we already know.

Good point.

[Grujah]

But as SK he would claim town, no?

[Eevee]

I didn't claim because I think protecting our major arcanas is a big deal. Basically didn't want to claim for no reason (and I wasn't/am not under a lynch threat or see no other benefit for town in claiming).

[Jimmmmm]

Here's a Robz-is-a-SK theory: Insom, Robz, Galz and Eevee are all on the same scumteam.

It'd have to be Werewolves, as Robz would be the King of Swords.
Eevee would have to be a Major Role.
Galz and Insom could be anything really (well, you know, anything Werewolf), since neither of their claims are verifiable.

Firstly, what a ferocious pack of wolves that would be. Secondly, would they be capable of coming up with such a grand plan? I wouldn't put it past them.

For my other theory, I was accused of SK-hunting. So before you start analysing this one too much, let me be clear: I do not believe this theory to be correct. Like the other one, I thought it was interesting enough to be worth mentioning, but very unlikely.

[jotheonah]

Wow a lot happened while I was asleep.

I have a piece of setup info that would allow us to clear Robz with a very limited massclaim.

Basically, everyone would need to claim sword or not sword. I am aware of Volt's power in MA1. I have some reason to believe its unlikely we're in a parallel situation.

[Eevee]

What benefit would there have been in me claiming? If someone points out something I'm not realizing, I can obviously still do it. Just don't see how it would help.

[Jimmmmm]

Huh. How have I missed that Eevee could be a SK? I guess the main thing that means is that if Robz is a Werewolf then we still have reason to suspect Eevee.

[Grujah]

Basically, everyone would need to claim sword or not sword. I am aware of Volt's power in MA1. I have some reason to believe its unlikely we're in a parallel situation.

I think I'm up for it.

It's either that you have similar power to Volt, and this is a setup.. but than if you fuck up with Robz, we'll lynch you.

[Jimmmmm]

I have a piece of setup info that would allow us to clear Robz with a very limited massclaim.

Basically, everyone would need to claim sword or not sword. I am aware of Volt's power in MA1. I have some reason to believe its unlikely we're in a parallel situation.

Hmm. I have to get to bed now, but tomorrow I'll have a read of MA1, and see what others who were in MA1 have to say about this. How much information are you willing to give before you get a massclaim?

[jotheonah]

I have a piece of setup info that would allow us to clear Robz with a very limited massclaim.

Basically, everyone would need to claim sword or not sword. I am aware of Volt's power in MA1. I have some reason to believe its unlikely we're in a parallel situation.

Hmm. I have to get to bed now, but tomorrow I'll have a read of MA1, and see what others who were in MA1 have to say about this. How much information are you willing to give before you get a massclaim?

Not much to claim, really. But the less I say, the harder it will be for scum to figure out how to lie their way out of it.

[yuma]

what in the world!!! 1o new pages! going back to read...

[Galzria]

Joth, you'll have to forgive my concern on this. I don't at all support it after the outcome of Arcana I, when after days of working town to a slam dunk win, we got overpowered by Death, who was an SK variant that got a permanent +1 (hidden) vote for every Wand (or whatever suit it was) he killed. As it was, he ended up with 4 votes at the end of the game, and it could've been more had we actually suit claimed.

And yes, this is coming from a guy who has already claimed card AND suit. Cayvie hates mass-claims. She has since we seat claimed in BMMM. She went out of her way to put a role like Death in the last game to discourage us from claiming, and she has said (thanks for the quote earlier Volt) that we should expect similar in her future Arcana games. I'm afraid I must stand against this.

[Grujah]

so, he knows all the swords, and than he has 50% chance to be wrong about robz otherwise we just lynch him?

[Grujah]

or, well, he'll than argue that you lied and are actually a sword and not a pentacle.. blah.