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Author Topic: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (MAFIA WIN)  (Read 134464 times)

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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Night 2 Begins!)
« Reply #1225 on: February 04, 2013, 05:38:25 pm »

S_FO


NG_L
IONS


TTIS

Also no one seems to have looked into this but it COULD be valuable is anyone any good at cryptography? (I'll see what I can make of it too)
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1226 on: February 04, 2013, 05:43:56 pm »

Any letters I add are lower case

Read down is

SNIT_GOTF_NIOLSS


perhaps its
SNIT? GOT F?NIOLSS


Across maybe is something like So FONG_L I ONSTT IS?


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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1227 on: February 04, 2013, 05:50:41 pm »

Read Upward (L-->R)

TINS TOG_ IN_F SSLO

I can't think of anything to make SSLO useful though.

Read Backward (T-->B)
OF_S L_NG SNOI SITT

Read Backward then upward
SITT SNOI L_NG OF_S

Read Upward then R-L
SSLO IN_F TOG_ TINS
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ashersky

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Night 2 Begins!)
« Reply #1228 on: February 04, 2013, 05:58:55 pm »

S_FO


NG_L
IONS


TTIS

Also no one seems to have looked into this but it COULD be valuable is anyone any good at cryptography? (I'll see what I can make of it too)

You left off 4 letters, man.

APPA

S_FO


NG_L
IONS


TTIS
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1229 on: February 04, 2013, 05:59:57 pm »

Bleh alright back to the drawing board.
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1230 on: February 04, 2013, 06:01:13 pm »

On the plus side I'm fairly confident that each line is NOT an anagram
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ashersky

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1231 on: February 04, 2013, 06:02:23 pm »

On the plus side I'm fairly confident that each line is NOT an anagram

My first guess was that system where every letter is a substitute for another letter (I forgot the name of that), so A=C, K=P, etc.  But I can't come up with a frame of reference for it.

The list is from Dave Bannion, Qvist, right?  Does that helps us?
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1232 on: February 04, 2013, 06:03:49 pm »

On the plus side I'm fairly confident that each line is NOT an anagram

My first guess was that system where every letter is a substitute for another letter (I forgot the name of that), so A=C, K=P, etc.  But I can't come up with a frame of reference for it.

The list is from Dave Bannion, Qvist, right?  Does that helps us?

I don't recall the name of the puzzle but if its a substitute then its just a simple substitution cipher
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1233 on: February 04, 2013, 06:05:01 pm »

Dave Bannion is from the Big Heat, has anyone seen that movie? (aside from Galz/Mods/Speccies)
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yuma

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1234 on: February 04, 2013, 06:25:31 pm »

Ok that's L-2, nobody vote for yuma until I can do a reread! It shouldn't be too long now. But do not vote! Scumyuma will absolutely self-hammer if he gets to L-1.

I would not!
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1235 on: February 04, 2013, 06:26:57 pm »

Ok that's L-2, nobody vote for yuma until I can do a reread! It shouldn't be too long now. But do not vote! Scumyuma will absolutely self-hammer if he gets to L-1.

I would not!

Heh. I see what you did there.
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yuma

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1236 on: February 04, 2013, 06:40:03 pm »

Ok that's L-2, nobody vote for yuma until I can do a reread! It shouldn't be too long now. But do not vote! Scumyuma will absolutely self-hammer if he gets to L-1.

I would not!

Heh. I see what you did there.

well even if I was on the scum team or the SK... I wouldn't selfvote... not after all of my multigame criticism of self voting.
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1237 on: February 04, 2013, 06:44:54 pm »

So without having finished my reread or gotten are full picture, here's what it's looking like to me: The mafia (Cuzz, yuma, probably someone else) set up Yuma as their white knight, the one who would get all the towncred, waaay too much towncred to be mafia. Yuma takes credit for the recharging (whether yuma is the recharger or a scummate) and then, when he saw that Cuzz' kill failed (Yuma couldn't do the kill himself, he needed to keep that squeaky clean image), he decided to go for a JK claim in order to get even MORE towncred when Cuzz got lynched and flipped scum. He couldn't claim roleblocker, since a town roleblocker had already died, so he went for JK and chanced being counterclaimed. Well, the counterclaimant happened to be near-confirmed town. Yuma curses his luck earlier on in the day, and I think all of this is why.

Eevee basically said a bunch of this already, but this definitely seems like the likeliest narrative to me. But it's only a portion of the story of course. I will continue reading, and at this point I think I support a massclaim. It'll be more to analyze today and if/when scum dies overnight we can analyze any fake claims. And besides, if I die tonight, I'd like to have another chance to catch scum in the endgame.

@yuma But you've done it before!
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yuma

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1238 on: February 04, 2013, 06:49:08 pm »

So without having finished my reread or gotten are full picture, here's what it's looking like to me: The mafia (Cuzz, yuma, probably someone else) set up Yuma as their white knight, the one who would get all the towncred, waaay too much towncred to be mafia. Yuma takes credit for the recharging (whether yuma is the recharger or a scummate) and then, when he saw that Cuzz' kill failed (Yuma couldn't do the kill himself, he needed to keep that squeaky clean image), he decided to go for a JK claim in order to get even MORE towncred when Cuzz got lynched and flipped scum. He couldn't claim roleblocker, since a town roleblocker had already died, so he went for JK and chanced being counterclaimed. Well, the counterclaimant happened to be near-confirmed town. Yuma curses his luck earlier on in the day, and I think all of this is why.

Eevee basically said a bunch of this already, but this definitely seems like the likeliest narrative to me. But it's only a portion of the story of course. I will continue reading, and at this point I think I support a massclaim. It'll be more to analyze today and if/when scum dies overnight we can analyze any fake claims. And besides, if I die tonight, I'd like to have another chance to catch scum in the endgame.

@yuma But you've done it before!

couple of problems with this idea:

1. white knight and lurking=fail
2. to do this recharging yuma would have to recharge townie PRs=fail
3. squeaky clean image died when I hammered Cuzz--which strangely enough no one has really talked about... I thought it would be the talk of the day.
4. I have self-hammered before... but not after my rants against self-voting. Once was to just get the game moving onward because you were out of town... the other was because I was fully confirmed scum because I had mistried a quicklynch with Galz that failed horribly. This is a completely different situation. For one, I am not on the scumteam or SK.
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1239 on: February 04, 2013, 06:50:36 pm »

My current problem, and the reason I advocate for a massclaim, is that I just have nothing...nothing at all on Insom, Shraeye, or Ashersky (ok, I guess I know that Asher has an x-shot of something). If I have missed a claim or a partial claim, please let me know about it. I feel pretty confident that one of these is the SK and one of these is the last mafia. And like I mentioned before, it is the players who are still mysterious and shadowy towards the end of the game who very often wind up being scum.
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yuma

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1240 on: February 04, 2013, 07:12:27 pm »

My current problem, and the reason I advocate for a massclaim, is that I just have nothing...nothing at all on Insom, Shraeye, or Ashersky (ok, I guess I know that Asher has an x-shot of something). If I have missed a claim or a partial claim, please let me know about it. I feel pretty confident that one of these is the SK and one of these is the last mafia. And like I mentioned before, it is the players who are still mysterious and shadowy towards the end of the game who very often wind up being scum.

I am all for a mass claim! I'll go first!
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1241 on: February 04, 2013, 07:21:56 pm »

1-shot Bulletproof Ineffective Jailkeeper Recharger?

Not to put words in your mouth. :P
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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1242 on: February 04, 2013, 07:25:22 pm »

I Do NOT support a massclaim
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ashersky

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1243 on: February 04, 2013, 07:31:01 pm »

I will follow Eevee's lead, as the only really confirmed town around.  I believe fully that Lekkit is town based on previous claims and actions.  Past that, I know I am town.

Shraeye and Insomniac are the enigmas.  Yuma is scum.  Cuzz and Dsell have guns, and at least one of them must be mafia/SK.

Eevee previously said he thought we hold on the mass claim.  If he is convinced otherwise, I'll do it.
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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1244 on: February 04, 2013, 10:15:49 pm »

Anyone else have anything to say?
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1245 on: February 04, 2013, 10:24:26 pm »

Insom, can you give reasons for not wanting a massclaim? This late in the game, I don't see how a massclaim can hurt that badly. I think it's a lot more likely to give town a good chance of winning than scum. Scum has fairly complete information already and two prime targets in me as a vig and Eevee as near-confirmed town.
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Insomniac

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1246 on: February 05, 2013, 12:22:21 am »

Insom, can you give reasons for not wanting a massclaim? This late in the game, I don't see how a massclaim can hurt that badly. I think it's a lot more likely to give town a good chance of winning than scum. Scum has fairly complete information already and two prime targets in me as a vig and Eevee as near-confirmed town.

No, but I assure you it is anti-town to keep asking me to claim.
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Eevee

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1247 on: February 05, 2013, 02:17:49 am »

Dsell, we "know" two scum already. We cant kill any more of them at once!

Right now, we have me, a confirmed townie who on the other hand is just vanilla. You, who are dangerous if town but seem like mafia. Lekkit, who is thought of as towny and has a role that could or could not help town a lot. Shraeye who we have nothing on and Ins who opposes a mass claim.

I just think town has perfect info anyways, as in townies know what to do with their potential night actions. Mafia wouldn't need to make a great long term lie, because the following night (or this lynch) goes badly for town, they'll just win!

I really fear this is just hypothetical anyways as their busdriver / roleblocker / what have you just means we are lost anyways, but I think it's beneficial to let the unknown townies play the night unclaimed, that way scum will likely just kill me, a vt, and you can and should just massclaim tomorrow and hope we didn't start killing scum too late.
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Dsell

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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1248 on: February 05, 2013, 02:34:54 am »

Here is the problem I see: we have really good information right now for what to do today and tonight. But if scum doesn't give us anything else to latch on to as scummy, then where do we go tomorrow? We will have two flips that we already knew we were getting and as many as 2 townies dead. 2 townies whose analysis of the massclaim could have been useful!

Scum already has great targets for tonight in you and Lekkit. Well, mafia does. SK has a hard choice because it's definitely in their best interest to shoot scum, but since I'm already shooting Cuzz, they'll have to pick between whichever of Ashersky/Shraeye/Insom is not them.

So anyway, tomorrow we could have two townies dead, we should have two already-known scum dead. We've already agreed that tomorrow whoever is left will massclaim. But who is left to analyze? Probably not you, perhaps not me or Lekkit or one of those three above. For me, I want as many town as possible to analyze the massclaim. Sure, there will be scum voices in there too, but they will not affect what we do today and tonight. They can only affect what we do starting tomorrow, which is when we were going to massclaim anyway! Furthermore, if I am able to analyze the massclaim and then die tonight, that's a confirmed townie's opinion.

I really doubt that a massclaim will change what town does tonight (if anything, it will help town) and I also really doubt that it will change what scum does tonight since mafia already has obvious choices for who to kill. If anything, it could change the SK's position the most, but he himself would have to fakeclaim and anyway, we want him on our side at this point in the game.

So it is unlikely to change what people do tonight. (It is possible, of course, but unlikely since mafia already has better information than town.) It is likely that it will change what people do tomorrow night. But by massclaiming today instead of tomorrow, you have the analysis of more townies involved. Analysis that can be trusted 100% when that person flips.

I don't mean to pressure, here, really. But I see a lot of upsides for town in this plan. Maybe it's easy for me to say, since I've already claimed.

Night guys.
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Re: Role Madness VI: Mafia Noir - Home of the only TRUE Mafia: (Day 3 Begins!)
« Reply #1249 on: February 05, 2013, 02:46:32 am »

Dsell, we can't know what roles the other townies have. I know, the cop and the doctor are already dead, but this is role madness. If there is a townie with a role like that lurking somewhere (Ins is hinting to that direction, for example), we just really don't want them to claim yet.

I don't feel like it much matters if I'm there to analyze the mass claim or not. Townies, just do your own thinking and DONT sheep anyone else / let what others think is best sway you. Really, MORE than half of them might be scum.

I think the benefit of having more townies to analyze is smaller than the downside of giving scum more information about the night actions townies have left. It would be different if I didn't think we knew two scum already.
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