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[Eevee]

*think

[Insomniac]

Insomniac, don't you see how it can be beneficial for us to have CONFIRMED TOWNIES deciding who we are going to lynch? Frisk, care to weigh in on this?

No, confirmed townies doesn't make them better at scumhunting as a matter of fact they are WORSE at scum hunting.

From my perspective
2 ACTUAL IC's
1 More IC (Myself)
2 Townies
3 Scum.

so as far as I'm concerned there are 5 lynchables and i have a 3/5 of hitting scum vs 2/5 of hitting town where as IC's are 50/50

We don't know you are town though. My method ensures scum has no business deciding ANY lynches. Idk, I feel like typing "aÅPgkopajghlöamjboplöklaegmnklöaegngklömnsgöp why don't you see this!?!?", but maybe I'm wrong? Someone else, what do you thing?

Dude we've had this discussion a billion times in other games, ICs are no better at scumhunting then anyone else and generally are slightly worse.

[Captain_Frisk]

The problem with the ICs is that they can possibly pick me - and I'm town.  No matter what we agree to, I'm not going to self lynch.

Of course we want our ICs to be involved, but if we give the game over to them, then we might as well not play.  This is a built in excuse to lurk - which then deprives the ICs of the data required.

[Eevee]

This is much different from a normal game. You like to mention how RMM3 a lot. Well, that's still fresh in my mind too, and it showed me how ridiculously easy it is for scum to play confident and lead town to mislynches. Scum can't nightkill here, all we have is lynches. And my plan would make scum manipulating them impossible. It would make scum powerless, they'd basically have to try to blend in and hope they can fake towniness better than actual townies. No powers.
Don't you see how ridiculously good that would be for us?

[Eevee]

The problem with the ICs is that they can possibly pick me - and I'm town.  No matter what we agree to, I'm not going to self lynch.

Of course we want our ICs to be involved, but if we give the game over to them, then we might as well not play.  This is a built in excuse to lurk - which then deprives the ICs of the data required.

I'm not saying we should just surrender and let IC's randomly pick one of us. I suggest we play totally normally, interact with each other and build cases and stuff. Just let IC's dictate the voting/lynch eventually. Like, right know I suspect Insomniac the most, because I think my plan is good and I think it's possible he secretly agrees with me but wants town to not realize the plan is actually solid. We almost never agree with Ins though, so he could be still be town very well.

 I wouldn't vote for myself in any event either, that would fall under "strong reasons to do otherwise".

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok - theory time:

Day 1 Current state: 2 ICs, 3 Town, 3 Mafia

Day 1 Mislynch->Day2: 2 IC, 2 Town, 3 Mafia
-Day 2 Mislynch->Day3: 2IC, 1 Town, 3 Mafia == Scum Win
-Day 2 Scumlynch-> Day3: 1IC, 2Town, 2 Scum: Lylo


Day1 Scumlynch-> Day2: 1 IC, 3 Town, 2 Mafia
Day2 Mislynch -> Day3: 1IC, 2Town, 2 Scum: Lylo
Day2 Scumlynch: Win

[Captain_Frisk]

Basically - we have 1 mislynch.

[Eevee]

That's good to know, thanks Frisk.

If you are town, my plan means letting your confirmed townie vote to be controlled by someone else you also know to be town. As Insomniac pointed out, that is not good, because the other townie doesn't know you are town. However, the upside is, we COMPLETELY get rid of all three scum votes. On top of not having a night kill, scum has no control over the lynch! That's all there is to it. I'm not saying we should change the game play dramatically or vote for ourselves if IC's want us to, I just want to make mafia as powerless as possible. I really think this is good.

[Galzria]

Eevee, I agree with Insomniac on this one. It sounds like you're trying to abdicate responsibility for your vote.

"whoops! We lynched a townie? Guess the IC was wrong..."

Yes, we should listen to our IC's, and their input is invaluable, but like always our vote needs to be our own, or else we learn nothing from a lynch.

As far as maths related to this game - near as I can tell it's first team to two.

If we lynch two scum, we win.
If we mislynch twice (with or without a correct lynch thrown in), we lose.

This seems rather unbalanced in favor of scum since it's really a 3 on 3 debate, with 2 IC's here helping to sort things out. But scum have the advantage of knowing each other AND they have daychat.

[Eevee]

I call Ins+Galzria scum team.

"whoops! We lynched a townie? Guess the IC was wrong..." makes no sense, I was asking people to choose the IC they'll be sheeping specificifally so that that wouldn't happen!

[Eevee]

Galzria, unless I'm mistaken my method ensures town is 50% to win even if our IC's pick the lynch targets totally randomly. If you think this setup favors scum, why would you not want that?

[Eevee]

In reality it will obviously be all but random, and scum not being able to choose who they vote will make daychat a lot less useful.

[Galzria]

I call Ins+Galzria scum team.

"whoops! We lynched a townie? Guess the IC was wrong..." makes no sense, I was asking people to choose the IC they'll be sheeping specificifally so that that wouldn't happen!

But that's EXACTLY what will happen if the first lynch is town. The only reason you'll have for having lynched that person is "My IC told me to".

[Eevee]

I call Ins+Galzria scum team.

"whoops! We lynched a townie? Guess the IC was wrong..." makes no sense, I was asking people to choose the IC they'll be sheeping specificifally so that that wouldn't happen!

But that's EXACTLY what will happen if the first lynch is town. The only reason you'll have for having lynched that person is "My IC told me to".

That is correct. Really think this through though, please. I'd at least like to be convinced I'm wrong.

[Galzria]

I call Ins+Galzria scum team.

"whoops! We lynched a townie? Guess the IC was wrong..." makes no sense, I was asking people to choose the IC they'll be sheeping specificifally so that that wouldn't happen!

But that's EXACTLY what will happen if the first lynch is town. The only reason you'll have for having lynched that person is "My IC told me to".

That is correct. Really think this through though, please. I'd at least like to be convinced I'm wrong.

The problem is you're taking things to an extreme in a way that is only beneficial to scum.

Let's say we play normally. People argue, people make cases, etc. We lynch. We hit town.

Now, it takes 5 to lynch. That means any wagon that hits town must have at least 1 scum on board (1 IC voting), or 2 scum on board (0 IC's voting). We can then use the arguments and cases from D1 to analyze where we think scum to be.

If we abdicate our vote straight out, then we lose out on the value of wagons and arguments for and against them turning into lynches. Something that is an invaluable tool for town going forward.

Town is the UNINFORMED majority, we win by collecting information. What you've suggested is a direct assault on potential information.

[Eevee]

Galzria, unless I'm mistaken my method ensures town is 50% to win even if our IC's pick the lynch targets totally randomly. If you think this setup favors scum, why would you not want that?

In reality it will obviously be all but random, and scum not being able to choose who they vote will make daychat a lot less useful.

Is this incorrect in your opinion?

[Galzria]

Slight change to a number above: With 0 IC's voting it would take all 3 scum, not just 2, assuming nobody self-votes.

[Robz888]

I think in theory, Eevee is wrong, and in practice, Eevee is really really wrong. No offense, Eevee.

The reason his plan absolutely doesn't work in practice is that... we can't sheep Jimmmmmm (how many m's?). We just can't. He's a total new guy (girl? let us know if you care about that) to our circle. As we all know, this is a game about knowing people really well, and it's just going to be amplified times 1,000 in this setup, which is as pure to behavior mafia as you can possibly get. There are no night actions or power roles, just pure behavioral analysis, resting in no small way on our prior knowledge of each other--which Jim doesn't have.

So anyone who pledges, "I'm going to vote for who Jim thinks is scum, as long as it's not me," is really hurting the town here, because Jim (no offense) is the most likely person here to be wrong (especially in this setup).

So in reality, Eevee's plan is just to let shraeye pick. Which isn't so bad, shraeye's a good player, and an adequate IC, but I have no reason to trust his reads over my own. Nor do I have any reason to want Eevee to trust shraeye's reads over his own, or over mine, for instance, really. If Eevee is scum, then sure I want him to abdicate, but if Eevee is scum, he'll only do what shraeye wants if it's bad for town.

So I'm going to give a lot of weight to what the people I think are town have to say, which includes shraeye and Jim in a big way. But it shouldn't be a "they get to decide" scenario.

[Galzria]

Galzria, unless I'm mistaken my method ensures town is 50% to win even if our IC's pick the lynch targets totally randomly. If you think this setup favors scum, why would you not want that?

In reality it will obviously be all but random, and scum not being able to choose who they vote will make daychat a lot less useful.

Is this incorrect in your opinion?

Why don't we just /random in other games on D1? Our odds of hitting scum would be higher than f.DS's history, right?

We don't because what we gain - the information of wagons, and arguing, and defending etc. Are invaluable to town.

Yes, I disagree that what you're suggesting is the best play because you seem ok with throwing out the window Towns ability to gain valuable information, in favor of a 50/50 chance.

[Eevee]

Color me surprised.

UNLESS! It's Ins-Galz-Robz. ( : ) )

I still don't see how I'm wrong though. 

[Robz888]

Although, I'm just thinking now, we actually got really luck that Jim drew IC, because if we didn't know his alignment... I think it might be really, really hard to tell. Because we don't have a meta on him.

[Robz888]

Color me surprised.

UNLESS! It's Ins-Galz-Robz. ( : ) )

I still don't see how I'm wrong though. 

Because shraeye is no better informed than the rest of us?

[Eevee]

Saying "this setup favors scum" and "we don't want to make it a 50-50 chance*" is pretty contradictory don't you think?

*It's not 50-50. It's not like our IC's would be random shooting. They'd analyze people's cases and behavior and do all the stuff you normally do. Again, you are giving your vote to another confirmed townie and in exchange all the scum has to give their votes to them too.

Saying "there is nothing to analyze then, duh" is also incorrect. We are still going to be interacting, making cases and listing people in order of scumminess. We can even say "I'd vote for x". All that would to influence IC's decision and be information we could go back to analyze after a flip.

[Eevee]

Color me surprised.

UNLESS! It's Ins-Galz-Robz. ( : ) )

I still don't see how I'm wrong though. 

Because shraeye is no better informed than the rest of us?

Shraeye is not scum though. Better than 50% of us.

[Captain_Frisk]

I don't like robz,insom and galz agreeing, as one of Themis scummmmmm