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Author Topic: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Mafia Wins!)  (Read 166164 times)

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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Night 2)
« Reply #1375 on: October 31, 2012, 07:03:46 pm »

So I guess this should be pretty obvious... but just in case it isn't...

Eevee is highly likely the Pearl Diver, correct? and should not reveal whether or not he went diving last night.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1376 on: October 31, 2012, 07:07:10 pm »

Assume ashersky is lying. That means 1 of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse and the other is the pearl diver. This is fine so far. However the town consensus WAS to shoot ashersky yesterday while cursed. Once that consensus had been reached BOTH of CF and Eevee had been online BEFORE the curse came off. Therefore if one of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse they defied towns request and DIDN'T shoot ash. That doesn't make sense from a town standpoint.


This leads me to conclude that Ashersky SHOULDN'T (95/100 times) be the liar.

Insomniac: Here you say that town reached a consensus on using the cutpurse one-shot. I realize that in the moment it may have been hard to go back and pull quotes, etc... But did you have any specific quotes in mind as to where you thought that town came to this consensus? Do you still think town came to this consensus?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 2)
« Reply #1377 on: October 31, 2012, 07:21:28 pm »

Assume ashersky is lying. That means 1 of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse and the other is the pearl diver. This is fine so far. However the town consensus WAS to shoot ashersky yesterday while cursed. Once that consensus had been reached BOTH of CF and Eevee had been online BEFORE the curse came off. Therefore if one of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse they defied towns request and DIDN'T shoot ash. That doesn't make sense from a town standpoint.


This leads me to conclude that Ashersky SHOULDN'T (95/100 times) be the liar.

Insomniac: Here you say that town reached a consensus on using the cutpurse one-shot. I realize that in the moment it may have been hard to go back and pull quotes, etc... But did you have any specific quotes in mind as to where you thought that town came to this consensus? Do you still think town came to this consensus?

Yes, the town put him to L-1, someone not on the wagon expressed that they were going to hammer. Then since he was cursed people unvoted so that cutpurse could vig him.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Archetype

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1378 on: October 31, 2012, 08:31:20 pm »

Hm, looks like Asher put me as his lowest scum read. This doesn't make me look good. :P

Pearl Diver, don't tell who you are. Eevee, if you are indeed the Pearl Diver, what results have you gathered.

I could see Grujah being scum. IIRC, Asher didnt get on the Grujah wagon, and he doesn't seem like the kind of person to throw his buddy under the bus.

Vote: Grujah

Quick Town reads: Cuzz, Yuma, Shraeye, Eevee (if no one counterclaims)
Scum reads: Grujah and Captain_Frisk
A bit neutral on everyone else
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1379 on: October 31, 2012, 08:34:59 pm »

Hm, looks like Asher put me as his lowest scum read. This doesn't make me look good. :P

Pearl Diver, don't tell who you are. Eevee, if you are indeed the Pearl Diver, what results have you gathered.

I could see Grujah being scum. IIRC, Asher didnt get on the Grujah wagon, and he doesn't seem like the kind of person to throw his buddy under the bus.

Vote: Grujah

Quick Town reads: Cuzz, Yuma, Shraeye, Eevee (if no one counterclaims)
Scum reads: Grujah and Captain_Frisk
A bit neutral on everyone else

Frisk was night killed... who did you intended to put there?
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Archetype

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1380 on: October 31, 2012, 08:38:34 pm »

Hm, looks like Asher put me as his lowest scum read. This doesn't make me look good. :P

Pearl Diver, don't tell who you are. Eevee, if you are indeed the Pearl Diver, what results have you gathered.

I could see Grujah being scum. IIRC, Asher didnt get on the Grujah wagon, and he doesn't seem like the kind of person to throw his buddy under the bus.

Vote: Grujah

Quick Town reads: Cuzz, Yuma, Shraeye, Eevee (if no one counterclaims)
Scum reads: Grujah and Captain_Frisk
A bit neutral on everyone else

Frisk was night killed... who did you intended to put there?
Oh, yeah :P I meant Insomniac
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1381 on: October 31, 2012, 08:40:33 pm »

Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote

Chicken Vote: Archetype
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote

Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Archetype
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1382 on: October 31, 2012, 08:42:24 pm »

Chicken Vote: Eevee
Chicken Vote: Cuzz
Chicken Vote: yuma
Chicken Vote: Galz
Chicken Vote: jo?
Chicken Vote: shraeye
Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Vote: Archetype
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1383 on: October 31, 2012, 09:13:23 pm »

Why are people not playing this game?
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1384 on: October 31, 2012, 09:15:46 pm »

Why are people not playing this game?

possibly halloween...?
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1385 on: October 31, 2012, 09:16:33 pm »

Why are people not playing this game?

possibly halloween...?

Whats your read on the situation?
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1386 on: October 31, 2012, 09:19:50 pm »

Why are people not playing this game?

possibly halloween...?

Whats your read on the situation?

I am trying to analyze the votes that were cast by, on ashersky... but all the chicken votes is making the task a little more complicated than it should be. Hopefully you will get something from me soon.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1387 on: October 31, 2012, 09:41:07 pm »

So looking at votes surrounding ashersky...

 - Insomniac puts ashersky 4th on his chicken list early
 - Eevee votes ashersky first (Eevee)
 - yuma votes ashersky after analysis (eevee, yuma)
 - shraeye joins making it 3 votes (eevee, yuma, shraeye)
 - Grujah joins putting it at L-2 (eevee, yuma, shraeye, grujah)
 - Grujah changes vote to shraeye, so ash is back at L-3 (eevee, yuma, shraeye)
 - jot votes ashersky, so he is back at L-2 (eevee, yuma, shraeye, jot)
 - ash still hasn't voted all day... but finally votes Galz once he becomes a chicken, with Frisk, shraeye and cuzz as his top four chicken suspects
 - Cuzz votes ashersky... somewhere along the line, eevee unvotes, but I missed it (yuma, shraeye, jot, cuzz)
 - Grujah votes putting him at L-1 (yuma, shraeye, jot, cuzz, grujah)
 - Galz appears to be willing to vote, but notices Grujah's vote. so doesn't
 - shraeye changes his vote to eevee so now it is L-2 (yuma, jot, cuzz, grujah)
 - jot and grujah continue to push ash lynch
 - cuzz changes his vote to eevee (yuma, jot, grujah)
 - jot changes his vote to eevee (yuma, grujah)
 - shraeye is back on ash (yuma, grujah, shraeye)
 - shraeye unvotes
 - yuma changes vote to archetype (grujah....
 - Frisk counterclaims and votes ashersky (grujah, frisk)
 - eevee rejoins the lynch (grujah, frisk, eevee)
 - jot votes ash (grujah, frisk ,eevee, jot)
 - shraye votes for ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, jot, shraeye)
 - jot changes vote to insomniac (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye)
 - insomniac votes ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye, insomniac)
 - jot votes ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye, insomniac, jot)

Wife and I about to start a movie... so analysis will come later on this wonderful information.
 
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1388 on: October 31, 2012, 11:05:55 pm »

So looking at votes surrounding ashersky...

 - Insomniac puts ashersky 4th on his chicken list early
 - Eevee votes ashersky first (Eevee)
 - yuma votes ashersky after analysis (eevee, yuma)
 - shraeye joins making it 3 votes (eevee, yuma, shraeye)
 - Grujah joins putting it at L-2 (eevee, yuma, shraeye, grujah)
 - Grujah changes vote to shraeye, so ash is back at L-3 (eevee, yuma, shraeye)
 - jot votes ashersky, so he is back at L-2 (eevee, yuma, shraeye, jot)
 - ash still hasn't voted all day... but finally votes Galz once he becomes a chicken, with Frisk, shraeye and cuzz as his top four chicken suspects
 - Cuzz votes ashersky... somewhere along the line, eevee unvotes, but I missed it (yuma, shraeye, jot, cuzz)
 - Grujah votes putting him at L-1 (yuma, shraeye, jot, cuzz, grujah)
 - Galz appears to be willing to vote, but notices Grujah's vote. so doesn't
 - shraeye changes his vote to eevee so now it is L-2 (yuma, jot, cuzz, grujah)
 - jot and grujah continue to push ash lynch
 - cuzz changes his vote to eevee (yuma, jot, grujah)
 - jot changes his vote to eevee (yuma, grujah)
 - shraeye is back on ash (yuma, grujah, shraeye)
 - shraeye unvotes
 - yuma changes vote to archetype (grujah....
 - Frisk counterclaims and votes ashersky (grujah, frisk)
 - eevee rejoins the lynch (grujah, frisk, eevee)
 - jot votes ash (grujah, frisk ,eevee, jot)
 - shraye votes for ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, jot, shraeye)
 - jot changes vote to insomniac (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye)
 - insomniac votes ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye, insomniac)
 - jot votes ash (grujah, frisk, eevee, shraeye, insomniac, jot)

Wife and I about to start a movie... so analysis will come later on this wonderful information.

so of everyone alive, the strikethrough voted for ashersky yesterday:

shrayeye, insomniac, jotheonah, grujah, yuma, Archetype, Cuzz, eevee galzria

meaning that either the scumteam is archetype/Galz/ash or there was bussing yesterday. Galz said he was willing to put ash to L-1, but wasn't willing to put him to lynch. If Galz was scum he was put into an interesting position. Does he hammer his scummate without giving him an opportunity to talk? Or does he not vote? I would expect scumGalz to be willing to hammer a scummate. But would he be willing to hammer him so quick? Hmmm... this is sort of a toss up for me and would like to hear thoughts about it from others.

If the scumteam isn't Galz/archetype then like I said bussing occurred. I think the most likely bussers are insomniac--for only voting realy late--or cuzz for being on and off repeatedly and off at the end.

Right now I would be comfortable with a archetype, cuzz or insomniac vote. But would like to go back and look at each a bit more in depth specifically. Galz is after these three players I think.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1389 on: November 01, 2012, 12:20:37 am »

Yeah, I'm the pearl diver. Obviously not revealing whether I hid or not. Someone was angry at me for not saving Frisk... why, how could I have done that? Also Archetype, what could I possibly know?

Insomniac's behavior is absolutely infuriating. I don't know what to make of it, he was my 2nd biggest town read yesterday but it's just so blaaaargh. Grujah was my biggest town read, can someone compile a case against him? The townread is from the madness of the end of day 1. It kind of sucks I'm the only conf-town and should be leading you and stuff, but due to irl-reasons likely won't be taking much of a role. Galzria was another scum read of mine, but I think today's lynch target shouldn't be decided by gut reads but rather by examining interactions with Robz, me and ashersky (our three flips).
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Archetype

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1390 on: November 01, 2012, 12:36:53 am »

Sorry, I meant wether you used your power or not, which you definitally shouldnt reveal.

I agree with your last section, Eevee. We're down 3 PRs, and we may lose Eevee tonight (if he hasnt used his power). We need to stop random targeting and look for evidence.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1391 on: November 01, 2012, 12:43:00 am »

Chicken vote: Insomniac



Chicken unvote
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1392 on: November 01, 2012, 12:47:44 am »

Haven't caught up yet, but starting to read. My biggest scum read yesterday was Eevee, which I was obviously wrong on. Following him were Arch and Ash. Ash went down as scum, and others have drawn connections to Arch over it. I need to reread him still, but that would be my preferred direction today based on what I've seen and feel from days past.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1393 on: November 01, 2012, 01:13:37 am »

This town is ridiculous. I'm town. Grujah is scum. Period it's cut and dry here
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Grujah

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1394 on: November 01, 2012, 07:08:25 am »

Chicken Vote: Insomniac
Chicken Chicken
Chicken Unvote

Chicken Vote: Insomniac
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1395 on: November 01, 2012, 12:09:31 pm »

Anybody out there? Does anybody agree with my assessment of the situation or is it only myself and scum who want to play this game.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Galzria

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1396 on: November 01, 2012, 12:35:53 pm »

Anybody out there? Does anybody agree with my assessment of the situation or is it only myself and scum who want to play this game.

Yeah, sorry...

Ok, I've said before that I think you're both town. Obviously he can't elaborate on why you're scum, but you CAN elaborate on why he IS.

You've said it's absolute, clear cut, no question. My reads, while not perfect, aren't generally terrible. So tell me why Grujah is like, the most obvscum ever.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1397 on: November 01, 2012, 12:51:24 pm »

Ok. So I looked at ashersky's interactions with Grujah.

Ashersky never ever voted for Grujah. He often called Grujah out but it was normally in the middle of posts that he was mentioning other things in. He also listed Grujah low on his suspicion list but not at the bottom. We have to remember this is Ashersky's first game as scum and I think this is totally how ash would have interacted with Grujah in his first game as scum. (You'll note that Robz called Ashersky out for using the new scum meta I'm talking about here on Day 1).

Now let's look at Grujah. You gave him a town read because he offered a 1-1 trade with Robz. Show me ONE game on this forum where we have EVER EVER EVER taken that trade. Grujah gets a town read for offering such a trade (knowing full well we'll never take him up on it)? Not gonna fly with me.

The wagon, now lets look at the lynch wagon. Oh Grujah is first on this doesn't surprise me as it gives him town cred if ash ever DOES get lynched. CF and Eevee primarily lead the lynch charge, so let's go back and see what happened when the lynch got to L-1.


Who put him to L-1 you ask good question, Grujah. Grujah unvotes before too much more has transpired and says "Let us vig" he treats Galz's almost hammer as a hammer and wants to get the day vig to use up his ability. Immediately after being chicken cursed when everyone is unvoting Grujah revotes for ash and stays there for the rest of the day.



You want the case on me? Cuzz has a good one it's all based on the end of day 2 where I was trying to decide how to handle the PR situation. Anyways this is the case on me.

Upon reread, I think Insomniac looks most like potential mafia based on end of D2.

-Just after Frisk claims PR, he tries to nudge lynch toward Eevee, but hedgily (is that a word?) offers potential support for ashersky lynch. Also seems not to consider the possibility that Frisk could be lying, as if he knew Frisk to be town:

vote: ashersky

You don't think it's more likely Eevee? Will vote ashersky now though if people prefer it.

-Rolefishes like crazy after the vague claims came out, pushing hard for fullclaims from everyone after we had all decided not to do that. Then this, which contradicts the quote above:

I do not foresee myself voting for a PR without having a 1-1 scenario.

which he later contradicted again by voting ashersky anyway.

-These next two posts speak for themselves:

I just realized there is no possible world in which ashersky is lying. Explain post coming

Assume ashersky is lying. That means 1 of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse and the other is the pearl diver. This is fine so far. However the town consensus WAS to shoot ashersky yesterday while cursed. Once that consensus had been reached BOTH of CF and Eevee had been online BEFORE the curse came off. Therefore if one of Eevee/CF is the cutpurse they defied towns request and DIDN'T shoot ash. That doesn't make sense from a town standpoint.


This leads me to conclude that Ashersky SHOULDN'T (95/100 times) be the liar.

This argument was obviously wrong in retrospect, and based on the very flawed assumption that everyone had agreed that the cutpurse shoot ashersky. This would be a very bold and desperate scumplay by Insomniac to try to save his scumbuddy. It doesn't quite seem like scum Insomniac, but I could see him trying something crazy like this to shake up his style.

-Finally when the lynch looks inevitable he hops on the wagon, perhaps fearful that the above behavior will look much worse if ashersky flips scum and Insomniac is not on the wagon.

Well Jo has gone retarded. I guess I'll sheep Frisk and hope for the best since no one wants to listen to logic today.

Vote: ashersky


Vote: Insomniac



But in order for you to believe that case you need to think that I went from playing a magnificent scum game to playing a damn terrible one, and that I offered myself in place of Robz when it actually had potential to gain traction on day 1 (people hate self votes and VT claims on day 1)
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1398 on: November 01, 2012, 01:07:33 pm »

You're missing the point regarding the offered trade, do I'll disregard any part of the argument that relates to it. The point is - regardless of Grujah believing we would or would not take him up on it, there was absolutely no reason - none at all - to even type the statement out. It's not exactly a statement that's made with the INTENTION of buying oneself town cred.. I mean, put yourself in the shoes of scum for a moment. Now, you know three town is about to lynch a townie (he's at L-1 with multiple hammer threats). Why in the world would you EVER bother saying, at THAT TIME "I'm so confident in my read that you're scum, that if you flip anything else, I deserve to die for it"? It doesn't matter if you know that you won't be killed - in what way can making that statement, against someone you KNOW is going to flip town, have an EXPECTATION of bringing you town cred? It can't. It just can't.

So yes, I DO choose to give him town cred for it - because I can't see how he could've ever thought that making such a statement on someone who was about to be lynched, makes ANY sense if he already knew for a fact that person was town - especially when the alternative was to just keep his mouth shut and not say anything.

That doesn't MAKE him town, but it does indeed giver him town points.

Going back to read the rest of the case now.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XIV: The Chicken Curse of the Sea Hags (Day 3)
« Reply #1399 on: November 01, 2012, 01:10:19 pm »

I would absolutely offer that up as the second most suspected player as a gambit for town credit.
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"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell
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