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Author Topic: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends  (Read 11570 times)

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Epoch

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Perhaps the most fundamental question you should ask yourself at the start of a game of Dominion is "how will this game end?"  Correctly determining whether the game will end through the depletion of Colonies, Provinces, or via a three-pile ending is critical to creating a strategy that can be the winner at that end of the game.  Cards which may be excellent in a Province game could be terrible in a three-pile game or a Colony game.

This article will explore the various ending conditions, how to determine whether your game is likely to end in that condition, and what that will mean for your tactics.

Colony

When Colonies are available, depletion of the Colony pile is typically the way the game will end.  Unless you see strong reason to believe that there will be a three pile ending or (very unlikely) a Province ending, you should plan on a Colony ending in a game where Colonies are present in the first place.

Colony games are very likely to be the longest types of Dominion games.  They give you more time to build a stronger deck, and are the easiest kind of game to win with an "engine" deck.  Obviously, they also require a stronger deck in order to consistently hit the $11 target buy.  If a game is likely to end with a Colony depletion, then you can look at the higher tier of Action cards ($5+) and reasonably build your deck around getting a bunch of those cards, rather than just a few crux cards, even without cards that rapidly improve the buying power of your deck.

When you expect a Colony ending, it takes a higher class of card to be useful in your deck.  Your end-game expected hand value needs to be $11+.  That means that cards that are worth only $2 in your hand (like Silver) are not themselves pulling their weight in a Colony game.  Of course you can use Silver (and Copper), particularly with strong card drawing, but you don't want to weigh your deck down with a bunch of copies of cards that only are worth $2 in your hand.  It can be tempting to get lots of Silver or similar cards (terminal +$2 actions, for example) in your deck early, as a way to afford the higher-cost Actions, Gold, or Platinum, but remember that you won't love those cards in the late game.

Province

Most Dominion games end with Province depletion -- specifically, most Dominion games without Colonies available end through Province depletion.  When Colonies are on the board, it is very rare for Province depletion to end the game, and should almost never be planned for.  But when Colonies aren't available, the default is to assume that the game will end with Province depletion, unless you see a strong reason to believe there will be a three pile depletion.

Province games are what you should have the most experience with.  They reward rapid engines and modified big-money strategies.  Copper is overall a negative in the late game in Province decks, but Silver is fine, delivering well more than the $1.6 average value needed in a card to produce the $8 hands that you're aiming for.  Many engine decks are just too slow for Province games, producing a deck that's very strong in the late game, but which is already suffering from a 2 or 3 Province deficit to a faster, Big Money-esque game.  If you build an engine in a Province game, you should do so knowing that either:

1.  This is a particularly fast engine.
2.  This is a particularly strong engine, able to guarantee you multi-Province buys to come back from your deficit.
3.  The game is likely to be slower than usual, probably due to Attack cards.

Three Pile Depletion (End Game)

A not-very-interesting type of Dominion game endings is the late game three-pile depletion.  This usually happens when there are a small number of Provinces or Colonies left, and both players' decks have been clogged up with green cards and can no longer summon $8 or $11 to end the game on Provinces or Colonies.  Usually then a race on Duchies (or Provinces) commences and sometimes the game ends up squeaking to a slow close on piles.  However, this is basically just a failure case of the Province or Colony ending conditions.  You don't need to worry a lot about this at the beginning of the game, and your strategy is likely to be similar to what it would be in a basic Province or Colony game.

Three Pile Depletion (Early/Mid game)

The rarest form of Dominion game ending is a rapid three pile depletion.  These games can be very rewarding, as they are uncommon enough that many players miss the possibility of a rapid three pile depletion, and can be very unprepared for the game to end, allowing you to obtain a solid win.

In order for a rapid three pile depletion to be viable, there needs to be a way to deplete three piles quickly and for the player driving the game-end to do so with a safe enough VP lead that his opponent can't derail the strategy by buying a solitary Province or similar card.

The best-known board state for a rapid three-pile depletion is for both Gardens and Workshop (or Woodcutter) to appear on the board.  Such a board typically ends with the depletion of Gardens, Workshop/Woodcutter, and Estates, and ends much faster than a Province game.

But any time you see one stack of cards that is almost certain to deplete itself rapidly, it is worthwhile to consider the possibility of a quick three-pile ending.  The classic pile that is likely to deplete itself in the mid game is the Curses pile in the presence of strong cursing attacks, particularly Witch, Familiar, or Sea Hag (Torturers will probably only deplete the Curses in the late game if there are Villages on the board, or not at all otherwise; Mountebank often stalls out and doesn't deplete curses until fairly late because the attack can miss; Young Witch is often skippable or counterable, but if it isn't, it will cause Curse depletion).  Popular, strong, spammable cards like Fishing Village and Caravan are also likely to deplete in the early game and can set up a three-pile ending.  Grand Market is an interesting special case -- usually, it is expensive enough that it can't be depleted in the early game, but if there is something that starts a GM run early, it is so good at setting up other-pile depletion that it can very easily create a three-pile ending.

Duke/Duchy can also lead to a fairly early three-pile depletion.

If one pile looks likely to rapidly deplete itself, then a three-pile ending is much more likely than otherwise, and you should consider whether you can build a deck that will be substantially quicker than a Province/Colony deck and can take advantage of a three-pile ending.  Typically, you'll need some way to deplete a VP pile (most likely Estates or a non-standard VP card) quickly without stalling out your deck.  That will probably mean buying a lot of some enabler card that will be your third pile to deplete.


Conclusion

Understanding how a game will end is usually not particularly difficult.  For most games, it can be reduced to "Colonies if Colonies are available, otherwise Provinces."  Because of that, it's not heavily commented on here on Dominion Strategy.  But despite being simple, it's crucial.  You can't make a strategy for a board without understanding the pace of the board -- whether it's worthwhile to buy more expensive cards that will make your deck better in the long run, but slower in the first part of the game.  And you can't understand the pace without knowing how the game will end.

Don't let yourself just assume that every game will end on Provinces or Colonies -- study the board before your game starts and look for the possibilities for a less-common ending condition.  You'll save yourself several losses to people who end the game on three piles when your deck is just starting to kick into gear.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2011, 07:39:38 pm by Epoch »
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HockeyHippo

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2011, 05:27:25 pm »
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Quote
When Colonies are out, it is very rare for Province depletion to end the game, and should almost never be planned for.  But when Colonies aren't out, the default is to assume that the game will end with Province depletion, unless you see a strong reason to believe there will be a three pile depletion.

I assume this is a type or unintentional mistake. 'When Colonies are [not in the kingdom], it is very rare for Province depletion to end the game'

I believe you mean in, not out.
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2011, 05:29:28 pm »
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No, by 'out', he means in the kingdom. I read "Colonies are out" to mean "colonies are in the game" - I don't know why, but this is a very natural reason. Out of the cardboard box that holds them maybe?

HockeyHippo

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2011, 05:32:33 pm »
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Oh... I see. Seems very counter intuitive to me.
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jonts26

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2011, 05:51:03 pm »
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Popular, strong, spammable cards like Fishing Village and Caravan are also likely to deplete in the early game and can set up a three-pile ending.  Grand Market is an interesting special case -- usually, it is expensive enough that it can't be depleted in the early game, but if there is something that starts a GM run early, it is so good at setting up other-pile depletion that it can very easily create a three-pile ending.

Very nice primer on game endings. The above quote highlights a particularly interesting situation which should probably merit it's own article. I often find that the presence of strong engine cards or combos (minion/Grand market, fishing village/wharf etc) very often results in a three pile ending which, if you aren't paying attention can really sneak up on you. It's very tempting to want to continue to build your engine, but when those piles become in danger of depleting, you need to start greening, perhaps earlier than you'd think. I've been on the receiving end of a 1-0 loss where my opponent was able to deplete a third pile while nabbing just a single estate.

I've found that in higher level play, the winner of these types of matches tends to be the player who recognizes when to go green and is able to maneuver the three pile ending to his advantage.
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rod-

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2011, 06:36:21 pm »
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I've found that in higher level play, the winner of these types of matches tends to be the player who recognizes when to go green and is able to maneuver the three pile ending to his advantage.
In these cases, +buys or +gains(workshop/etc) become an important commodity.  If both players are developing a similar engine, it is important to know how many buys/gains your opponent can manage in a turn and tweak your deck and buys accordingly - if your opponents deck generates 12 coin and 4 buys every turn, don't reduce the last 3$ stack to 4(6$ to 2, etc) unless you are ahead on score.  However, if your deck generates 1-2 more buys than your opponent, you can slowly dwindle the last pile, keeping a 3-pile ending just out of reach of your opponent while edging yourself towards it.
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DG

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2011, 06:54:32 pm »
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Some other considerations might be ...

It can be dangerous to assume that an opponent will ignore provinces in a colony game. Emptying the provinces can sometimes be a strong strategy perhaps by ending a game quickly to defeat a developing deck (cities), using tournaments for prizes, or just using card combinations that work well for provinces (remodel + hoard).

Having the power each turn to end the game through depleting piles is very strong. If you can see a situation where an opponent can exhaust 3 piles you generally need to get ahead in vp quickly or else you will lose. It's very hard to stop piles depleting but if you're ahead in vp that becomes your opponent's problem instead! Once you're assured of that it's clearly to your advantage to prepare your own deck to quickly deplete stacks. If you're just relying on pulling treasure from your deck each turn for a province then your opponents are under no extra pressure; they can play as they like without needing to change strategy. 

Some other cards that are prone to 3 pile ending are city, goons, bridge, wharf, king's court, university, ironworks, horns of plenty, swindler, fishing village, quarry, talisman, saboteur, torturer, and jester, for a variety of reasons.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2011, 06:57:20 pm by DG »
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Epoch

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2011, 07:31:01 pm »
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Oh... I see. Seems very counter intuitive to me.

WanderingWinder is right, I meant "out" like "out on the table" or "out of the box."  You are right, it is not intuitive.  I will edit.
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Epoch

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #8 on: August 15, 2011, 07:35:04 pm »
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Some other considerations might be ...

It can be dangerous to assume that an opponent will ignore provinces in a colony game.

It feels to me like it ought to be more dangerous than it is.  That is, I can see theoretically wanting to end the game on Provinces a fair amount, but in practice, it very, very rarely seems to happen.

This is possibly explained by the differences in our levels of play: perhaps you more frequently play opponents who are better at realizing the advantage of going to Provinces despite Colonies.  If so, I feel comfortable just putting a caveat in that clause like ("at least, until very high levels of play"), since this is a guide intended for beginners.

Does anyone else have any comment on that subject?
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WanderingWinder

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Re: Beginner Strategy: Colonies, Provinces, and Piles: How the game ends
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2011, 07:48:53 pm »
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I'll jump in here. There aren't a lot of situations where you can look at the board and somehow say that racing for provinces is the right thing to do. However, it can come into play in a few different ways. Firstly, if you happen to get some kinda mega turn, know that if you can either run out the provinces or make it to where that's gonna happen soon with you at a substantial lead, do it. This is pretty rare. Second, and much more importantly, PPR for colonies has you turn for provinces if it's unsafe to colony near the end. But you also need to watch out for those provinces running out with you behind, so it's not too difficult to get backed into a corner. Finally, and I think most important to watch out for, in those games where you get very clogged decks (usually this happens with certain quick curse-givers), building a deck which hits 11 consistently might be very, very far off, and building a deck that goes for provinces with more consistency and much sooner may indeed be a better bet.

Markov Chain

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Three-pile endings with attacks
« Reply #10 on: August 15, 2011, 10:24:34 pm »
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Another way you can predict three-pile endings is a set of cards which will make it hard to buy Provinces.  Attack cards do not help your own hand as much as non-attack actions, and they weaken the opponents' hands (or their plays this turn). 

Any curse-giver with no way of getting rid of curses will both deplete the curse pile and make it hard to reach 8, and once the curses run out, the card will be dead weight and any Moats the opponents bought to defend against it will not be very useful either.  Saboteur is a 5-point card which doesn't help you at all but ruins your opponents' decks; if it is the best 5-point buy, then decks will be very weak.  (Other good 5's tend to be better than Saboteur, but this depends on what else is in play.)  Ambassador, in a game with more than two players, increases the number of Estates in play, which will both deplete the Estate pile and clog decks the same way a curse-giver does.  Possession not only creates an alternative to going for Provinces, but also encourages you to buy Duchies earlier to weaken your deck if possessed.  And Swindler can force a three-pile ending, not only by using up the curses, but also by swindling out the last card of a pile, turning the next-to-last Feast into the last Feast.
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