Big wall of text, since I'm starting to come to grips with the game.
Okay, so we're hitting the point where so many things are going on that it's hard to choose a lynch candidate. AND we're in a situation where we essentially want to choose 2 lynch candidates. Anyways with this much going on I need to write it all down, hopefully that helps other people too.
We have:
Young Nick: claimed card cop. As noted, if O card-claims it's only reasonable to keep him around because we're gaining information about his investigative ability.
O: claimed JOAT. We want to let him live in order to prove that he has a 1-shot vig.
Axxle: he's a double-voter. Claimed to be town by O's investigation result.
Cuzz: claimed to have information about the description of shraeye/ashersky, and that the description made them vanilla town.
Ashersky/Shraeye: both have claimed that the description could apply to them. Thereby claiming a "confirmed" VT-status.
sparky: current wine possessor. While unable to be confirmed along-side eHalc, he might be confirmed by whomever he passes the wine to.
DSell: Former wine possessor. Believed to be town by eHalc based on his description (although with caveat).
ehunt: claimed Town Drunk. Has requested not to receive the wine in order to keep from taking it out of the game/revealing a town PR.
Morgrim: claims to be a VT with additional info about how many VT's are in the game.
cayvie: claims to have some role which acts upon whomever she's voting for at the end of the day.
Is that everything?
People who haven't made any claims that I remember:
myself, yuma, Insomniac, joth, ftl, watno
So, people I think we should not lynch or direct vig to tonight:
Young Nick, O or Axxle (since we're verifying O's vig claim)
both ashersky and shraeye (since at least one of them is probably VT)
Cuzz
Sparky - might as well at least see what the person who receives the wine says.
DSell/ehunt: I think they're both town.
me: I'm town.
Anyways, not really sure what to do at this point. A lot depends on how many people are currently lying, which is a complete unknown (given the closed set-up). I think probably 2-3 liars? So, if we had 6 mafia that would leave 2-3 scum in the small set? So probability-wise we should probably be looking at the small set. However, at least some people thought we would have done better to lynch a claimant in MXII to get information about truth in claims. But that might have had to do with significant set-up speculation concerning the existence of a SK? I dunno, I actually disagree that the outcome of MXII had anything to do with looking into the VT-claims, and really if I'd had my wits about me I would have realized that we REALLY should have gone after Insomniac on the last day. Grujah's analysis there was completely misleading, but I bought it at the time.
In this case though, several of our claims are for VT. That significantly weakens the value of looking at the unclaimed since we may be more like to hit a PR there?
Alright, let's assume that Morgrim's information before is accurate (I have no reason to disbelieve it). I think we could use that to determine whether we're better off going for claims or not given that we want to avoid PRs. Someone should be able to double-check this (and should, because it's not straight-forward, and I'm relying on memory for what sort of claims people have made)
Let's see: Morgrim stated that there were 3 mostly VT, and 4 complete VT. eHalc seems likely to have been complete VT. Morgrim is and Galzria was probably mostly VT. That leaves 3 completely VT and 1 mostly VT. At least one of Shraeye/Ash is in the complete VT-group according to Cuzz.
That leaves 3 at least mostly VT. Now, since not all the claims are PR-type claims, I need to recategorize people here:
people with no claimed powers at all:
DSell, sparky, (shraeye/ash)
people with claimed powers that could be considered "mostly VT". Note only one of these could even possibly be a "mostly" VT if Galzria was considered "mostly" VT.
ehunt, Cuzz(if it was one-time start of game information).
Um, okay so it's possible that all town players in the 6 non-claims are PRs (assuming Morgrim's statement is true). But this is highly speculative, given that we don't know what "mostly VT" contains, or if we should consider them PRs.
Personally I think Cuzz is the other mostly VT. I have no reason to expect DSell and sparky of being VT, so I'd say that 2 of DSell, sparky, myself, yuma, Insomniac, joth, ftl, and watno are in fact VT. Now if we assume that 2 of the non-claimants are scum (note that eliminates DSell and sparky), and assume 2 are VT, suppose we choose a player from the non-claimants (say Insomniac). The probability that Insomniac is scum is 1/3. The probability that he's VT is 1/4. The probability that he's a town PR then is 1-(1/3+1/4)=1-(7/12)=5/12.
(Note: I've made several assumptions such as 2 scum in the 6 non-claimants, obviously these probabilities are speculative, I'm just trying to get a sense for it, also these probabilities change drastically if you have additional information (which I do, but am not including in order to avoid revealing PR-info to scum, so my numbers are a bit different from the general case)).
Now, if we lynched say shraeye/ash. We would have a 0% chance of hitting a PR. Supposing we have 3 scum in the claimants group we would have a 3/11 chance of hitting scum. Although this can be refined if we suppose for example that one of Young Nick or O is scum (which I'm not sure is necessarily true...although many people have stated such belief). Anyways, if we did so we'd have a 2/9 chance of hitting scum. And if you're in the non-claimant group it goes up to 1/4.
So, I think personally that to avoid hitting PRs and to get better information, we should target one of shraeye/ash with the lynch or vig-kill. And then maybe target one of the 6 non-claimants for the other kill.
I knew I was forgetting something...the Grujah lynch.
Let's see that takes up yuma, joth, ftl, and watno of the six.
Well, I don't have much memory of what Insomniac's done this game. So, that seems fine to me (although maybe not ideal given that we could easily be dealing with only bussers when we eliminate down to the 6 non-claimants).