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[noon]

Thanks for all the good times, Doug!

[blueblimp]

+1 for a really weird rating graph.

[Morgrim7]

+1 for a really weird rating graph.

I don't see it weird.

[pingpongsam]

What expansion came out at the end of February?

[Ratsia]

What expansion came out at the end of February?

None? That looks a lot like lack of playing, which can also be confirmed by looking at his CR page. The ranking algorithm increases the variance every day, so playing only a few games over such a period results in severe (but smooth) level drop.

It would be nice if CR showed also the mean skill estimate, which would in his case probably be rather stable. Then we would see if he actually played a bit worse during that time as well or not. All in all, the mean skill is a better estimate than the skill minus three standard deviations; the conservative estimate is mostly needed for filtering out the newbies that have mean skill of 25. In other words, it's used mostly because of shortcomings of the TrueSkill system, as is the daily increase of uncertainty as well.

[DStu]

What expansion came out at the end of February?

None? That looks a lot like lack of playing, which can also be confirmed by looking at his CR page. The ranking algorithm increases the variance every day, so playing only a few games over such a period results in severe (but smooth) level drop.

It would be nice if CR showed also the mean skill estimate, which would in his case probably be rather stable. Then we would see if he actually played a bit worse during that time as well or not. All in all, the mean skill is a better estimate than the skill minus three standard deviations; the conservative estimate is mostly needed for filtering out the newbies that have mean skill of 25. In other words, it's used mostly because of shortcomings of the TrueSkill system, as is the daily increase of uncertainty as well.

[Axxle]

My graph has two ridiculous spikes in it where I must have been possessed by the spirit of RisingJaguar or something:
http://councilroom.com/player?player=Axxle

[noon]

My graph has two ridiculous spikes in it where I must have been possessed by the spirit of RisingJaguar or something:
http://councilroom.com/player?player=Axxle

Er, your number of games played went down at some point?

[ftl]

Yep, everyone had that; I think that was when games played with constraints were retroactively removed from the record due to Paralyzed.