Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Eevee]

Thinking about who would be scared of experienced players seems like a dead end though.

Why is this a dead end? Should be obvious, right? Me, you, ashersky, geolib.

Experienced players could be afraid of other experienced players just as easily.

[Jorbles]

Thinking about who would be scared of experienced players seems like a dead end though.

Why is this a dead end? Should be obvious, right? Me, you, ashersky, geolib.

But experienced players could also be argued to be scared of experienced players, because they would know their skill level.

ninja'd

[Captain_Frisk]

Why did scum choose O? He only suspected Robz (right?), so I can't think who this makes look scummy. It's interesting (and not necessarily bad at all) scum chose to serve us any WIFOM but went for O instead. Probably they feared he'd catch them still, despite his bad Robz read. They seemsto be going for the mafia VII route where they kill of the experienced guys first, hopefully this town can do better than that town did!

Big FOS: eeVee for even asking this question - seeing as you lived it already.

I don't really follow this line of reasoning, but maybe it's because I haven't read MVII. Care to elaborate?

So - his question is: Why kill O?

In M7 - the n00bs systematically eraticated all of the experienced players.  It was amazing.  There's 1 reason for an O kill right there.

The 2nd (potential) reason for an O kill is that he's a headstrong player.  Once he makes up his mind, he's a tough man to argue with.  Is this the type of player that scum want around?  Yes if you get lucky and O locks onto town (RobZ in this case).  Not as much if he locks onto scum.  It's much safer to get rid of him and watch as the followers kindof mull around without direction. 

In M7 - Timchen aggressively drove the Galz lynch - and then was night killed that night.  In the QT - I was shocked.  (Just like geolib was confused)  I thought for sure that scum would leave timchen alive because his lynch would be so easy. 

See my post #47 and the following discussion.
http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/yYhZLqUBFu4

I assume that eevee read the QTs.  He knows why killing O makes some sense.  Him asking why O was killed as an opening post is strange.

[Eevee]

I did say "not necessarily bad at all", which in my english implies I thought it was an unexpected but pretty smart kill.

Again, why the FoS? For not mentioning it looks a lot like the timchen kill in MVII?

[Captain_Frisk]

I did say "not necessarily bad at all", which in my english implies I thought it was an unexpected but pretty smart kill.

Again, why the FoS? For not mentioning it looks a lot like the timchen kill in MVII?

You did - but somehow I parsed the entire message as not understanding why.  Can I dial the finger back to a small fos?

[GeoLib]

K. Checking in again.

Couple things I've noticed/want to respond to.


I have not read M7, Frisk, so no need to point fingers 

I agree with Jorbles, that it is not so obvious that newbish scum would be most afraid of experienced town. In fact, upon reflection, I think it's quite the opposite. An experienced scum has played other games with the experienced player, who probably knows their playstyle. Also, being the only experienced player increases ones power in the game. Do you notice how we (the newbs) have been relying on Eevee, O, Robz, and Frisk to provide us with information about previous games and general information about how the game works? Well two of those people are gone now, increasing how much the other two can steer the town.

I agree that we would have been unlikely to lynch O. Despite his hardcore tunneling on a towny, I think many of us would have reasoned that it would be just too crazy a thing for scum or PR to do, which means we would have treated him as semi-confirmed VT. That's actually what surprises me most about the O NK, is that almost everyone who'd read him said he was probably VT, which means the scum either a) didn't notice these reads b) decided O was worth killing even though he was unlikely to be a PR c) thought that semi-confirmed VT was a more powerful asset to town than a PR d) Thought O had so much chutzpah that he would play like that as a PR

As much as I like Eevee's congeniality, he has already encouraged us not to base our reads off of personality, and I don't want to let this get buried. After I accused Eevee in my post 'o quotes, he congratulated me on suspecting him, in a sort of win-over-with-flattery type way and then moves on. I want to know what you guys think about it, and make sure it doesn't get buried.

@GeoLib

Haha, obviously no one is going to get lynched before tomorrow. I don't really know how to address your case since.. yeah, those quotes are from me? I believe I was pretty spot on with Robz and in the end finally realized it was not a smart lynch, but it was too late. I stand by everything I said about him yesterday though Actually, props to you for suspecting me because I actually agree my yesterday's end game behavior could easily be interpreted as scummy. Hopefully you'll remember my earlier stuff too and that will clear me some!

Coupled with my realization that eliminating O gives the other experienced players more sway, I think Eevee looks suspicious.


Next. I agree with Captain Frisk and Eevee about role claims.

Doctor should not claim unless it is the only way to prevent his lynch (or perhaps to out scum fake-claim. Is that worth it?)

Cop should claim on two scum investigations immediately. Should try to steer town in the direction of one and claim if necessary. Should try to steer town away from investigated townies. Am I correct that cop only gets alignment and not role? Should tell us investigation results as reads somewhere in thread not too obvious, so that when he flips we get his info.

Jailkeeper is tough... Regardless. At present the jailer obviously doesn't have any information.



I agree it seems unlikely that Robz would get lynched with 0 scum on the wagon. Also, if I were scum, I would probably make sure that we weren't both on the wagon, but a newbie scum might have made a mistake, so we should bear that in mind.


Morgrim!! I don't care if you're upset about being VT. Over half of the people in this game were VT and all of us are playing normally. Post something other than repeated your VT claim or I will tunnel you harder than O tunneled Robz. I still sort of think we should lynch Morgrim actually. I'm still with Robz that this seems like he's playing the "crazy Morgrim" role because this is just ridiculous.


Speaking of over half VT, we are now two down, plus two scum, plus one mafia rolecop investigee. With some quick and dirty math (I can write it out if you guys care):

Even if we scum-lynch or no-lynch, there is a 55% chance that the scum will hit a PR tomorrow with their NK.

If we lynch VT, then it's a 63% chance.

If we lynch a PR then well, that's a 100% that we'll have a dead PR. 

I just think we should bear in mind that we'll likely lose a PR soon.


On the bright side, if I pick one of you at random and tunnel hardcore, there's a 1/3 chance you're scum!

That's all from me for now. I really have stuff to do and will maybe post here one more time today. If not I will be back to post on Wednesday eastern time, probably in the evening.

[Jorbles]

Ok, I've been thinking about this for awhile now and I think we're in a situation where the NK didn't actually give us a huge amount of info to go on. I think we should be analyzing the voting patterns from Robz's lynch.

Going with Frisk's scenarios, which I don't see any problem with.

The other thing we haven't brought up here, is looking at the wagons.

People who voted for RobZ - these people look naturally scummier because they contributed to the death of town.
O, Cuzz, Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, ashersky

People who didn't:
RobZ, GeoLib, eevee, Jorbles

We have 2 scum, who could have been on the wagons as follows:

1. Both voted to kill RobZ
2. Both voted to not kill RobZ
3. They split - one for and one against.

Now - consider each of those buckets - and think about (from scum's perspective) options a and b.

a. Kill someone who voted for RobZ
b. Kill someone who didn't

1a - This leaves 2 scum who voted for RobZ left in the scummy pool of 4 people remaining (50% chance of hitting scum if we investigate on the wagon), and a 0% chance of hitting scum if we investigate off the wagon.
1b - 2/5 40% chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 0/2 hitting off the wagon

2a - 0/4 chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 2/3 chance of hitting scum off the wagon
2b - 0/5 chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 2/2 chance of hitting scum off

3a - 1/4 (25%) chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 1/3 (33%) chance of hitting scum off
3b - 1/5 (20%) chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 1/2 (50%) chance of hitting scum off

Conservative scum play is to aim for 3a.  The default chance of hitting scum in a purely random lynch is 22% on day 1 (2/9)  3a keeps everything close and even - so that no matter which way town goes - the chances of hitting scum are reasonably low. 

Option 2 is hard (lynching town without any scum).  To be honest, I'm not sure if its ever happened before.

So - the question is - With all the B branches removed because of the scum kill - do you think that scum are aggressive enough to both vote for the lynch AND then also kill someone who lynched with them (option 1a)?  I wouldn't say its impossible - but the only person I think that would be aggressive enough to do it in this game was already night killed.  We do have some new players though.

With weekend gone - I'll try to be posting more frequently.  I want to reread day 1 with the new perspective.  I'd also like to hear something meaningful from Morgrim.  We saved him by lynching the morgrim hunter, if we're going to treat him like a confirmed townie - then at least lets here what he has to say.

I find option 2 to be extremely unlikely. (From my perspective it would mean both Eevee and Geolib are scum, which I doubt. 1 maybe, but both? Nuh uh.) I'm going to rule it out. Our most probable scenarios are 1a and 3a.

I already pointed out that I think it's fairly clear I was going to hammer Robz. I'm open for plausible 1a scenarios (that being both scum were on the wagon), but 3a seems like better scum play. I still don't trust anyone on the wagon, and I think some of them are much scummier than those off the wagon, but it seems like better scum strategy for one to be on and one to be off. From that it seems more likely that either Eevee or Geolib is scum. This bothers me because it means I think I've been reading one of them wrong. What does everyone think?

Also, I think Geolib actually makes a good point that we have been relying on the more experienced players for information. That makes Frisk and Eevee look scummier. As they'd want to kill off the other potential information givers (Robz and O) to give themselves greater sway.

Also does anyone have strong arguments for anyone who was on the wagon (I guess include me in that scenario when you are considering it) I'm pretty sure one of them is scum. That only narrows it down (for me) to Frisk, ashersky, Morgrim and Cuzz. Frisk is slightly suspicious for the info in the previous paragraph, plus he did seem to vote for Robz without putting a huge amount of thought into it.

ashersky and Cuzz are both suspicious for their bandwagoning, but we already knew that. For now I am backing off a bit on ashersky, clearly I read Robz wrong, so maybe I read ash wrong too.

Morgrim is well... I thought he was vanilla town as he claimed, but it would really be great if he'd participate in the conversation more. I guess lurking and providing little info would be a totally valid scum tactic, but would anyone actually try it? It's so anti-town that it just seems to obvious.

[GeoLib]

So I come back, and... One person has posted?

I think Jorbles analysis makes sense. I don't really have anything new to add because no one has posted (Where is everybody?) I agree that 3a is the most likely, and increases my suspicions of Eevee. There haven't been any votes today, and I think we should get things moving (not advocating a fast lynch, just some more discussion). Therefore, Vote: Eevee

I'll try to post here tomorrow, but might not get to it.

[Morgrim7]

Morgrim!! I don't care if you're upset about being VT. Over half of the people in this game were VT and all of us are playing normally. Post something other than repeated your VT claim or I will tunnel you harder than O tunneled Robz. I still sort of think we should lynch Morgrim actually. I'm still with Robz that this seems like he's playing the "crazy Morgrim" role because this is just ridiculous.


Speaking of over half VT, we are now two down, plus two scum, plus one mafia rolecop investigee. With some quick and dirty math (I can write it out if you guys care):

Even if we scum-lynch or no-lynch, there is a 55% chance that the scum will hit a PR tomorrow with their NK.

If we lynch VT, then it's a 63% chance.

If we lynch a PR then well, that's a 100% that we'll have a dead PR. 

I just think we should bear in mind that we'll likely lose a PR soon.


On the bright side, if I pick one of you at random and tunnel hardcore, there's a 1/3 chance you're scum!

That's all from me for now. I really have stuff to do and will maybe post here one more time today. If not I will be back to post on Wednesday eastern time, probably in the evening.

First off, I don't care that you don't care. I do. 

Second, well, I believe there was an argument made by C_F against Eevee that he didn't respond to, and I like Geolib's idea. Vote: Eevee.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ummm morgrim?  That leaves scum with the option to quick hammer.  It's probably bad scum play, but still dangerous.

[Eevee]

Someone unvote quick. I havent even defended myself wtf!!

[Eevee]

on phone cant post but if someone hammers, lynch him tomorrow no matter what.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-2

Eevee (2): GeoLib, Morgrim7

Not voting (5): Cuzz, Eevee, Captain_Frisk, ashersky, Jorbles

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, September 3, at noon EDT

[Eevee]

oh it wasnt l-1, its fine then.

[Captain_Frisk]

oh it wasnt l-1, its fine then.

Its fine-ish.  Yes - scum could quick hammer 3-4, but its unlikely.  My feeling is that while I do have pokemon suspicion, its certainly not time to end the day.  Let's talk about our feelings people.

[Eevee]

oh it wasnt l-1, its fine then.

Its fine-ish.  Yes - scum could quick hammer 3-4, but its unlikely.  My feeling is that while I do have pokemon suspicion, its certainly not time to end the day.  Let's talk about our feelings people.

I mean wtf, the case against me is flimsy at best, and the day has gone on for like two days, no it is not time to end the day yet. I'll reread everything and answer the best I can, although I have a feeling the case is so feeling-based and subjective it's going to be hard.

[Eevee]

Ok, so looking back perhaps this case doesn't make as much sense as I thought. But my recollection was that Eevee was saying that he thought Robz was probably town, but at the same time including little tidbits telling other people that basically there was no one else we could lynch D1, and that O was really smart and his case was excellent. Not necessarily saying we should lynch him, but just popped into my head, and I thought I should share.

So this is where it all started. In the end, I had a chance to hammer but rather decided to start the wagon on ashersky, which actually got pretty far.

Then, it is suggested O was killed to give the experienced players more power (so they are mafia). What can I say to this? I think O was just killed because no one now has any clue as to why that was, and also he was (at least in my mind, I said it numerous times yesterday) looking very very towny. My strongest town read from yesterday died, I don't know if that implicates me or not.

People who voted for Robz:
Cuzz, Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, ashersky

People who didn't:
GeoLib, Eevee, Jorbles


I think it's very damn unlike they were both off the wagon (and I'd like to add I think this is always the case). I could see them both being on the wagon very easily, especially newer mafias might get eager and since lynching Robz yesterday was a thing to do, jumping in on the action wasn't really suspicious at all. I still think Morgrim looks towny though. Also got a slight town read on Frisk.
I think the most likely scenario still is that one was off and one was on, but I'm not sure.

You say you have been relying on more active players for information. I know I have answered a lot of questions and generally tried to provide as much info as possible, has any of that been bad this far? Am I being called out for being too helpful and not participating on a townie lynch now?

Jorbles said he'd hammer, so he sort of (would have) participated in a townie lynch too. Ashersky and Cuzz are still scummy for their bandwagoning-behavior I think. GeoLib is very agreeing, pacifistic and nice so it's hard to suspect him, but it's not like he is obvtown at all, could very well just be a cautious mafia.

First vote on me was to raise discussion, 2nd was morgrim being morgrim and joining every possible wagon, no one else has voted. Frisk did talk about "ending the day", implying he thinks we are close to the lynch which is interesting I think (yes he said he doesn't want to do it, but he planted the possibility in our minds now).

If you lynch a townie (like me) and someone dies at night, there'll be two mafias and three townies alive tomorrow. Is the case on me compelling enough to risk that? How many of you think today's lynch target has been found?

If you have any specific questions, fire away! I don't really know how to defend myself.

[ashersky]

oh it wasnt l-1, its fine then.

Its fine-ish.  Yes - scum could quick hammer 3-4, but its unlikely.

This assumes both votes on Eevee now are from town.  I don't think we can make that assumption safely.

[Eevee]

oh it wasnt l-1, its fine then.

Its fine-ish.  Yes - scum could quick hammer 3-4, but its unlikely.

This assumes both votes on Eevee now are from town.  I don't think we can make that assumption safely.

Quickhammering and completely killing the discussion now would look so ridiculously scummy it's not really a consideration. Just no one do it if you are town, and we are good. Of course I would prefer either of them unvoting seeing how I'm town, but it is what it is. Ashersky, what do you think about the case on me? If I'm not your biggest suspect, who is?

[ashersky]

Quickhammering and completely killing the discussion now would look so ridiculously scummy it's not really a consideration. Just no one do it if you are town, and we are good. Of course I would prefer either of them unvoting seeing how I'm town, but it is what it is. Ashersky, what do you think about the case on me? If I'm not your biggest suspect, who is?

I suppose I have plenty of reason to suspect you, not the least of which was your leading the charge for a wagon on me on D1.  More, your initial reaction to the two votes on you was unbelievable, as I am sure you knew from the start you were not at L-1, but acted like you were.  You're smart, and you would know it's 4 to lynch on D2, not 3.  All sort of scummy to me.

I think Geolib needs a closer look, though, as he's been pristinely town in his posts, which I fell for at first, but now I suspect is more of a honey instead of vinegar play.  I need to take a closer look at his D2 posts so far, and I don't think any of us have really been eyeing him as much as we need to.

Assuming both town claims are true (Morgrim and Eevee), that leaves (in suspicion order) Geo, Cuzz, Jorbles, and Frisk (and then me, I guess), as possible scum (or PRs).  I'm not assuming the claims are true at this point though, especially since Eevee's came at L-2 instead of L-1, and Morgrim is Morgrim.

[Captain_Frisk]

If you lynch a townie (like me) and someone dies at night, there'll be two mafias and three townies alive tomorrow. Is the case on me compelling enough to risk that? How many of you think today's lynch target has been found?

Well - at least 2 have - and thats what makes me nervous.  Personally - I feel its way too early in the day to have someone at L-2, but I guess as long as one of those people is morgrim we're safer.

[Eevee]

I was checking the thread with my phone, that's why I was confused about the amount of votes. You can notice the fact I was on phone from the lack of capitalization and also from me telling you. I think that's an excellent example of a mistake that is not at all scummy.. seriously, what on earth do you figure I was thinking "Okay, I'm going to pretend I'm at L-1, surely no one will notice I'm actually not!!". Makes absolutely no sense, does it?

Oh and you think me derailing the lynch of a confirmed townie (robz) by trying to introduce a new target (you) is scummy now? Uh?

Vote: ashersky, sorry buddy you are looking like you want to make me look bad even though you have nothing. Neither of those things is AT ALL damning!

[Eevee]

If you lynch a townie (like me) and someone dies at night, there'll be two mafias and three townies alive tomorrow. Is the case on me compelling enough to risk that? How many of you think today's lynch target has been found?

Well - at least 2 have - and thats what makes me nervous.  Personally - I feel its way too early in the day to have someone at L-2, but I guess as long as one of those people is morgrim we're safer.

I don't really see it as a threat. It will be a problem if anyone votes for me now, but I'll say this one more time Hammering, whether you claim it was accidental or not, will be considered a scum action. Do not throw the decisive vote until town is absolutely ready! No cutting days short. Also, don't put anyone in L-1 unless you are absolutely sure you want it, better be safe than sorry. Saying something like "I would vote for him and probably will later, but.." will be sufficient, unless you try to weasel out of it in a scummy way later.

[Eevee]

^ Not all hammering obviously, but hammering when the deadline is still far and there is still obviously lots of talking to do.

[Captain_Frisk]

hmmmm... eevee vs. Ashersky. 

eevee is off the wagon - which from a neutral observer is slightly scummier (if you assume that scum didn't cross wagons) - but from my perspective is neutral - I'm town - so the other 3 wagoners are 1/3 likely to be scum, and the off wagoners are also 1/3 likely.

Asher suspecting eevee for suspecting him feels scummier though.

@Ashersky - did eevee actually claim somewhere that I missed - or are you just referring to the generic "i'm town" claim that is implied for all players?  (Vs. the morgrim explicit "I'm vanilla baby" claim)