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[GeoLib]

Damnit guys...

[O]

In the unlikely event that I'm NKed and you see Robz/O town: Ignore Robz inane reads.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-10

Robz888 (5): O, Cuzz, Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, ashersky
Morgrim7 (2): Robz888, GeoLib
ashersky (1): Eevee

Not voting (1): Jorbles

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Robz888 was looking more and more suspicious. "I've played Dominion against him online," said O. "He was never very good. The only time he beat me was using the Masquerade-Goons-King's Court pin." "Yes, he was terrible," Cuzz. "Check his pockets," cried Captain_Frisk. Morgrim7 reached into Robz's pockets and found a small electronic device. It had a whole bunch of buttons on it and it has the letters 'VP' on it! "He must be mafia and a cheat!" ashersky declared! That decided it, the mob of players grabbed the empty Dominion box covers. Someone lit a match and set them on fire. They threw Robz on top and watch him die a gruesome death.

After the flames had died down GeoLib picked up the point counting device. "Guys," he said with a quivering voice "He wasn't a cheater. This was a pedometer. "It says, to our wonderful financial VP. From the staff. Good luck with your weight loss program!"

-It should also be noted that before Robz turned to Dominion he was an excellent Extreme Ironing Champion. Yes it exists.-

Robz888 has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.

Night 1 has begun.  Night actions are due in 72 hours, i.e., by Monday, August 27, 6:00 p.m. EDT.  If all night actions are received prior to the deadline, Day 2 may start early.  Please send PMs to both me and yuma - thanks.

THREAD LOCKED.

[ashersky]

Well shit. Looks like Ashersky took matters into his own hands. Robz, last words quick

I felt pretty comfortable that a majority of the town was okay with going ahead with it.  Jorbles would have gotten his majority, at any rate.  There was a bit of tire-spinning at this point; now we can begin in earnest to root out the scum from this town with added info.

Robz's final words make a good point, at least on O, in retrospect.  Everyone on the Robz wagon got no reprieve from this, since he didn't flip scum to justify the wagon.  Now we get an evening to think.

[Voltgloss]

Note that the Night deadline has been extended to Monday, per PM I received from yuma.  See my modified final-vote-count post.

EDIT:  Flavor, by yuma, has been added to the final-vote-count!

[yuma]

As morning broke in Indianapolis the Dominion National Champions awoke to shouts and yells. Cannons went off, rockets exploded, the walls shook from the noise. Everyone--at least everyone alive--scrambled to their feat dazed and still dreaming of perfect shuffle luck and the new Dark Age cards. The two mafia members looked at each other--had they been discovered? Had someone found them out and then called the National Guard? Everyone scrambled to the window to see what all the commotion was about.

Everything outside was covered in blue and white. Banners and streamers hung from buildings. Everyone seemed to be wearing the same shirt, with a horseshoe on it. There were no military tanks or helicopters. Just a long line of people celebrating the arrival of Andrew Luck to the Indianapolis Colts. Football.... Psshhh... Nearly all of the them weren't from the United States, what did they care about football?

Disappointed--except for the two mafia members who were relieved they weren't found out--everyone turned around only to experience another shock. O the vanilla townie lay dead beneath the table strangled with his own belt. What a tragedy. O would never return to the fields of Russia and dance in the Fairgrounds with his three children, Harvest, Hamlet and Young Witch...

Day 2 Begins

Vote Count 2-1

Not Voting (7): Cuzz, Eevee, Captain Frisk, asherkey, Morgrim7, Jorbles, GeoLib

Day 2 ends Monday, September 3 at noon forum time.

[Eevee]

Why did scum choose O? He only suspected Robz (right?), so I can't think who this makes look scummy. It's interesting (and not necessarily bad at all) scum chose to serve us any WIFOM but went for O instead. Probably they feared he'd catch them still, despite his bad Robz read. They seemsto be going for the mafia VII route where they kill of the experienced guys first, hopefully this town can do better than that town did!

[Cuzz]

Ooooookay, so what do we have here? We accidentally (well, accidentally for most of us) lynched a townie (sorry, Robz!), and lost another one last night. Both vanillas, so no power roles gone, but there may only be like one of those anyway. And strangely enough, the townie killed last night was the one pushing hardest for Robz's lynch, so my plan of suspecting O at the beginning of Day 2 is out.

Questions for today:

--Who looks good, who looks bad?

Well, the two people with the strongest convictions so far are dead, so it's maybe a little tricky to get reads. I probably look bad after pushing for the Robz hammer. I really thought he had a decent chance of being scum, but obviously I was wrong. Ashersky had some suspicion on him toward the end, and was actually the one to hammer, so I'd think he looks bad as well. As a newbie himself, if he was mafia, Eevee's theory of the mafia killing off the more experienced players may hold water.

Geolib and Eevee were explicit about not wanting to hammer Robz at the end, (Geolib more so, but Eevee decided to vote ashersky when he could have hammered). Jorbles didn't vote but expressed willingness to hammer. Not sure quite how to interpret these actions. Mafia could have laid back and argued against a hammer, confident that someone else would do the dirty work. Or maybe they just had way better reads on Robz than I did.

Morgrim has been way quiet lately which seems pretty scummy to me. CF has been relatively quiet too, so I'd really like some analysis from him at some point.

-Any info from power roles?

I'm just not sure how this works because I'm new. Power roles may have helpful info, but is it too early to claim?

-Is there mod WIFOM?

Specifically, any connection between the Morgrim prod and the night action deadline extension? The deadline could have been extended because Morgrim has a night action and hadn't been heard from yet, or because the mods didn't want us to think Morgrim didn't have a night action if the deadline wasn't extended. Or I'm reading too much into this and it's not a helpful train of thought.

Thoughts?

[GeoLib]

Well first off, RIP O and Robz: Do not think that you have died in vain, for the stench of your slowly decaying bodies will doubtless hurry us to find the evil scum in our midst.

Hmmm... The O NK is rather strange. Notably, I made the point yesterday that scum could NK whoever's last words were most wrong hoping we would follow the advice of a confirmed townie. They might have read that and used it. Hmmm. I think the experience thing is probably more likely, but something to keep in mind. Presumably the strangled flavor doesn't mean anything? I thought mafia usually used guns, but we don't have any other killing roles, so I assume it doesn't matter.

Speaking of last words, Robz's were "suspect O and Morgrim," and O's were to ignore Robz. Well that's rather unhelpful. I realize this is super WIFOM, but could Morgrim have killed O because it was O who was defending him, thus making us think that... And you know I don't even want to write that whole thought, which means it's too convoluted to be useful.

@Cuzz. I don't think we should read too much into the Mod's decisions. Too much WIFOM, and in the end it's not what the game's about.

I can't take too much time to analyze right now because I'm packing to fly to college on Tuesday. I will try to check occasionally tomorrow, but can't get too involved. Will be on a plane all of Tuesday.



My first thought is that scum would probably not want to tunnel town, but would want to mildly protest while indicating with other things that the lynch was a good idea. You know whom that sounds like?? Eevee:

I do think O makes sense btw.

My favorite lynch for today would actually be robz, even if it would suck to lose such a strong townie.

For:
Claimed VT, nonexistent risk of lynching a town power role
Has played somewhat scummy (YMMV)
My gut isnt screaming "HE IS TOWN" when I read his defense
If we let him live, we will likely be facing the same dilemma tomorrow as some of us (hint: O) will try to push his lynch again. He could be investigated though, if we have a cop. Also scum wont kill him at night, and either way this is an informational wagon.

Against:
Could be a real asset to town (if town)
The scumminess is actually nothing concrete (but then againt, from a robz-level player it never is day 1)

I actually quite agree with O's case on Robz

Oh and as Robz pointed out, if he is indeed town, waiting gives the scum on the wagon an excellent chance to hedge. I said it above, it's super likely robz will die tonight. They dont need to argue for his lynch anymore, it's pretty inevitable. I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly felt a little less sure about him.. So people who first argued strongly for robz lynch and then started taking some of it back when the wagon picked off are slightly scummy I guess? Anyone want to admit to this behavior and explain it?

Actually, one of the reasons I think Robz is maybe a good lynch is that I think O is a smart guy

Still, it seems better than going for a new target completely, possibly outing our power roles in the process. Although you do have me almost convinced of your innocence..  Surely you must understand why I'd rather lynch for logical reasons than listen to my gut at this point?

Btw Robz, as I think it's quite possible you are town, I think you should absolutely at least share all your reads before you die. It's very unfortunate we are in this situation, but I just see no reasonable way out.

Being cautious is easy for scum (they can say "I would be willing to vote for my scumbuddy.. maybe" and then when the time comes, just not do it because they remembered to hedge in their original statement. And I do realize I've been very hedgy with the Robz case, although I have explained my reasons for it. And I would for sure rather lynch robz than nolynch, not even close.

I have said Robz is not super likely to be scum numerous times, the main benefit of lynching him would be the flip (obviously the possibility of him being scum is awesome, that'd be two birds with one stone). But sort of sucks to lynch someone your gut says is town, especially if he is a nice guy like Robz (shouldn't matter) and a very strong player.

Ok, so looking back perhaps this case doesn't make as much sense as I thought. But my recollection was that Eevee was saying that he thought Robz was probably town, but at the same time including little tidbits telling other people that basically there was no one else we could lynch D1, and that O was really smart and his case was excellent. Not necessarily saying we should lynch him, but just popped into my head, and I thought I should share.

I've got to get back to packing. I'll check in again tomorrow.

Try not to lynch anyone without me!

[Eevee]

Strangling is usually attributed to strongmans, but since this is a closed (open? which is it? anyways the one where we know what we are up against) it doesn't matter at all, just flavor.

I would not try to WIFOM our mod for two reasons. 1) it's not in the spirit of the game 2) it's not like yuma didn't realize people would think this, so i'ts indeed just a wifom i think would in the end be useless. Morgrim has claimed VT, I suggest that's all we base our decisions on.

It's interesting I survived the night. Opinions people, do you think a mafia team with ashersky would have killed me or not?

[Eevee]

@GeoLib

Haha, obviously no one is going to get lynched before tomorrow. I don't really know how to address your case since.. yeah, those quotes are from me? I believe I was pretty spot on with Robz and in the end finally realized it was not a smart lynch, but it was too late. I stand by everything I said about him yesterday though Actually, props to you for suspecting me because I actually agree my yesterday's end game behavior could easily be interpreted as scummy. Hopefully you'll remember my earlier stuff too and that will clear me some!

What do we think, how many scum on the wagon? I think there must have been some, it picked up relatively quickly and in my experience wagons forming on a strong case made by a misguided townie are exactly the kind of wagons that attract scum early on and midway. Now, if there already was one mafia on the wagon, I'm not sure if his scumbuddy would have joined late / hammered, because it very much looked like that was going to happen eventually anyways and scum prefers to get the lynch through without both voting. So, my guess would be that a) they both got on early or b) one of them got on early and the other did not at all. I don't even remember who jumped on it and when, got to reread later, heading home now so no time!

[Eevee]

In the unlikely event that I'm NKed and you see Robz/O town: Ignore Robz inane reads.

O's last words. So even after he knew Robz was town, he didn't think Morgrim was mafia.

[Eevee]

Hmm, the only guys off the wagon were myself, Jorbles and Geolib. Seeing their names makes me think maybe both scum were on the wagon after all - my very unreliable gut is feeling pretty good about Geo and relatively good about Jorbles. I will be rereading where Cuzz jumped on the wagon and his general voting positions yesterday, like I said I find joining a townie who is dead wrong about someone early is where I wouöd expect scum would want to be.

[Cuzz]

I'll save you the trouble, Eevee. That pretty much exactly describes my voting pattern. O was pushing for a Robz lynch, and I followed right after him, echoing his arguments. I guess this would make me seem scummy to you. Here's my vote on Robz, at a point when O was the only vote so far:

Talk is good, but eventually we do have to put some votes in. Right now I feel comfortable voting and I Vote: Robz again (votes => pressure => good, right Eevee?).

O has listed some good reasons. A few more:

Robz basically behaved almost exactly as Morgrim did with his "the looks on your faces" comment. Not a self-vote exactly, but still. Robz demanded a policy lynch on Morgrim for similar behavior.

He suggested lynching based on experience. I just have a hard time imagining a townie really supporting this idea.

Both his accusations and defensive statements seem way over the top to me. More subjective, sure, but still. I'm just getting a real scummy vibe.

Pile the votes on or don't, either way I just want to get some serious discussion going on this. Otherwise we'll be in the exact same place at the deadline.

Your theory is basically that the second person (i.e. me) on a misguided wagon begun by a townie (i.e. O) is potential scum.

Your theory would be useless then if O was not confirmed town, so I find it a little convenient for you that he was NKed last night.

[Eevee]

Thanks for digging that up. So Robz was your first serious vote and you stayed on him all day? I'm also interested in seeing how you reacted to the wagon at its various points and in situations where you chose not to unvote when more and more people joined. Oh and I didn't mean to imply it would be a traditional scum tell or anything, just thinking (out loud) where I'd expect the scum to be / want to be.

Theory question: what other ways are there for analyzing this new information? I've briefly touched listening to dead townies, analyzing voting positions and analyzing who has incentive to kill who now, which I feel are all good topics. Personally I think voting positions are the most important thing, but given how I didn't vote for either townies yesterday I guess that's what I would say as scum.

[Eevee]

Uuh less of a scum read on ashersky now actually, for two reasons.

1) I wasn't nightkilled despite my case against him (mafia might just want me around thoughn given my performances in VII and murder mystery..)
[self-centered] 2) O was killed, and I repeatedly said he seemed towny to me. Maybe mafia wanted to make me feel good about my reads because I'm wrong about ashersky? [/self-centered]

I don't remember what others thought of O (RIP mate) yesterday? Was he maybe killed for appearing too towny despite his case against Robz?


Oh it's getting loltastic how much I post here. Sorry for being borderline spammy!

[ashersky]

Chiming in quickly to let people know my travel has completed and I am now in the US.  I have Eastern time work hours without real Internet access, so I will be posting at night from now on.

Sad and surprised to see O gone, like many others I didn't expect that.

I will second whomever's question it was on what we can expect from PRs today, if anything, as I just don't know what they do...

With O gone, suspicion returns to Morgim, I think.  Where are you Morg?

Eevee and others, do you think Geo's ultra-pacifist ways could be scummy?

[Morgrim7]

With O gone, suspicion returns to Morgim, I think.  Where are you Morg?

I'm just mad cause I'm. a VT. Again. ugh!!!! Good now.

[Captain_Frisk]

With O gone, suspicion returns to Morgim, I think.  Where are you Morg?

I'm just mad cause I'm. a VT. Again. ugh!!!! Good now.

No.  Try again Morgrim.  He (she?)'s asking you to participate in the discussion - maybe contribute something meaningful.  Instead- you just reminded us all that you made a stupid roleclaim on day 1. 

As for the killing of O - this actually reminds me of the killing of timchen in M7.  For those who didn't follow closely, Galzria and Timchen had an epic fight on Day 2 of M7 - and the end result was that tim got Galzria lynched - and they were both town.  Timchen was pushing for it HARD.

As a spectator (they lynched me day 1) - I assumed they would keep timchen alive into day 3, and lynch eevee instead - because after being such a loud vocal lynch for town - he would look super scummy the next day.

Galzria pointed out to me that being so vocally in favor of lynching is pretty agressive for scum play - and timchen was uncontrollable - he might accidentally lock on to scum - and you knew there would be no way to change his mind.  O seems like a stronger player than timchen (sorry Tim) - but I could see the same fear existing - that O will make his decision and then call all of us idiots for not doing what he says - bullying us into a lynch - good or bad.

Why did scum choose O? He only suspected Robz (right?), so I can't think who this makes look scummy. It's interesting (and not necessarily bad at all) scum chose to serve us any WIFOM but went for O instead. Probably they feared he'd catch them still, despite his bad Robz read. They seemsto be going for the mafia VII route where they kill of the experienced guys first, hopefully this town can do better than that town did!

Big FOS: eeVee for even asking this question - seeing as you lived it already.

Hmmm... The O NK is rather strange. Notably, I made the point yesterday that scum could NK whoever's last words were most wrong hoping we would follow the advice of a confirmed townie. They might have read that and used it.

Minor FoS: geolib - but you may not have read M7 and the associated quicktopics. 

The other thing we haven't brought up here, is looking at the wagons.

People who voted for RobZ - these people look naturally scummier because they contributed to the death of town.
O, Cuzz, Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, ashersky

People who didn't:
RobZ, GeoLib, eevee, Jorbles

We have 2 scum, who could have been on the wagons as follows:

1. Both voted to kill RobZ
2. Both voted to not kill RobZ
3. They split - one for and one against.

Now - consider each of those buckets - and think about (from scum's perspective) options a and b.

a. Kill someone who voted for RobZ
b. Kill someone who didn't

1a - This leaves 2 scum who voted for RobZ left in the scummy pool of 4 people remaining (50% chance of hitting scum if we investigate on the wagon), and a 0% chance of hitting scum if we investigate off the wagon.
1b - 2/5 40% chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 0/2 hitting off the wagon

2a - 0/4 chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 2/3 chance of hitting scum off the wagon
2b - 0/5 chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 2/2 chance of hitting scum off

3a - 1/4 (25%) chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 1/3 (33%) chance of hitting scum off
3b - 1/5 (20%) chance of hitting scum on the wagon, 1/2 (50%) chance of hitting scum off

Conservative scum play is to aim for 3a.  The default chance of hitting scum in a purely random lynch is 22% on day 1 (2/9)  3a keeps everything close and even - so that no matter which way town goes - the chances of hitting scum are reasonably low. 

Option 2 is hard (lynching town without any scum).  To be honest, I'm not sure if its ever happened before.

So - the question is - With all the B branches removed because of the scum kill - do you think that scum are aggressive enough to both vote for the lynch AND then also kill someone who lynched with them (option 1a)?  I wouldn't say its impossible - but the only person I think that would be aggressive enough to do it in this game was already night killed.  We do have some new players though.

With weekend gone - I'll try to be posting more frequently.  I want to reread day 1 with the new perspective.  I'd also like to hear something meaningful from Morgrim.  We saved him by lynching the morgrim hunter, if we're going to treat him like a confirmed townie - then at least lets here what he has to say.

[Jorbles]

Hey just woke up. I find it extremely likely that at least one scum was on the wagon, and I would not rule out two scum. For these sorts of purposes of analyzing voting intentions I should point out that I was completely willing to hammer Robz (sorry Robz!) and if ashersky hadn't jumped in I probably would have been doing it within an hour or two. So I guess you should consider me in that list.

-Any info from power roles?

I'm just not sure how this works because I'm new. Power roles may have helpful info, but is it too early to claim?

I will second whomever's question it was on what we can expect from PRs today, if anything, as I just don't know what they do...

I think we should hope that PRs will hang back unless they have some solid information, and even if they do have something they shouldn't out themselves unless they have to. Given the results of last night, only a Cop could possibly have anything definitively incriminating at this point anyways so it might not even be an issue. (if there's a doctor or jailkeeper out there they chose someone who is not a murderer or murder target).

I'm not sure what to say about O's death. Maybe scum thought that he would be able to talk his way out of lynching relatively easily? Going so aggressively at Robz does seem like a crazy move for scum, so maybe they figured most people would treat O as confirmed town. There might also be some merit to the theory that they killed him for his experience. Thinking about who would be scared of experienced players seems like a dead end though.

[Captain_Frisk]

-Any info from power roles?

I'm just not sure how this works because I'm new. Power roles may have helpful info, but is it too early to claim?

Oh - on this - I think the general accepted practice is only claim if you have legit info that explicitly helps town.

For the roles that are in this game:

Cop: Claim early in the day if you investigated scum.  The longer you wait - the less plausible the claim is.
Cop: If you investigated town - and that town is near lynch - then claim.  This is questionable - because you might die.    For sure do not claim that you investigated town early.

Doctor: Claim at L-1?  Ideally you'd like the cop to know you exist, but no-one else.  There's no reliable way to accomplish this. 

Jailkeeper: I have no idea.  If you jailkept and prevented a kill - you have a 50/50 chance of knowing mafia (or mafia target).  I don't know if claiming in that situation makes sense (probably?) Since no kills were prevented last night - this is moot.

Pretty sure that the overall answer is - unless there is a scop who investigated scum last night - you should keep your mouth shut - although I'm not a expert.

[Eevee]

Cop should not claim early in the day, but rathwr try to talk the town into the correct lynch without claiming and then claim if that doesn't work.

Frisk, what did you FoS me for? What about that quote?

[Jorbles]

Uuh less of a scum read on ashersky now actually, for two reasons.

1) I wasn't nightkilled despite my case against him (mafia might just want me around thoughn given my performances in VII and murder mystery..)

This is an interesting line of reasoning actually. Why were neither Eevee or Geolib killed? I get pro-town reads off of both of them and killing them would have made another player look bad. Killing Eevee would make ashersky look bad, and possibly set him up for lynch. Killing Geolib would make Morgrim look bad possibly setting Morgrim up for a lynch. There's various roads to go down here. If Eevee or Geolib were scum they obviously wouldn't kill themselves. If Morgrim or ashersky were scum they might want to spare their antagonizer to make themselves look better. However, they all would have had an incentive to kill the antagonizer in the other pair. What do you guys think? Is this too complex to be worthy of consideration?

Oh it's getting loltastic how much I post here. Sorry for being borderline spammy!

No worries! Analysis is not spam.

[Jorbles]

Why did scum choose O? He only suspected Robz (right?), so I can't think who this makes look scummy. It's interesting (and not necessarily bad at all) scum chose to serve us any WIFOM but went for O instead. Probably they feared he'd catch them still, despite his bad Robz read. They seemsto be going for the mafia VII route where they kill of the experienced guys first, hopefully this town can do better than that town did!

Big FOS: eeVee for even asking this question - seeing as you lived it already.

I don't really follow this line of reasoning, but maybe it's because I haven't read MVII. Care to elaborate?

[Cuzz]

Thinking about who would be scared of experienced players seems like a dead end though.

Why is this a dead end? Should be obvious, right? Me, you, ashersky, geolib.