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[shraeye]

Answer to Eevee:
Initially I felt like ehunt's claim was real, and suspected Insomniac's claim, since I would have sorted out the "is he lying, should I tell or not" question faster.  Insomniac gives a reason for his hesitance (or someone did, can't remember).  Then Galz posts explanation as to why Insomniac false-claiming now is a bad play for scum.  This makes me believe Insomnia is telling the truth.  But I still feel like ehunt's was also genuine.  I'm for lynching a third person if possible.

[Eevee]

Question for everyone!

ehunt vs insomniac, your take on the situation. More than just the vote please, I really want to understand & see your reasons. Who is more scummy, and why? How likely do you see the possibility of both of them being town?

You've voted for eHunt.  You haven't voted for insomniac.  What is *your* take on the situation?  What made it change?

In the heat of the moment I legitimately got just confused as to why you all just jumped on voting ehunt (who is not even here). Now that I re-read Galria's explanation, I do realize how Insomniac is just very unlikely to be lying. So, even though I felt ehunt's claim was genuine at the time, I am now accepting I once again was wrong in that read and he is probably scum. Insomniac delivered the claim in a scummy way imo (just my initial gut reaction), which is why I demanded explanations. I do see it now, and will vote for ehunt when we are done talking.

[Eevee]

If we have time and that third person is not me, lynching someone else entirely would indeed not be the worst of the ideas. We'd force scum to waste kills on both of the two, which would mean more townies alive? It's not like the lynch would fall on a mafia member today anyways..

[Eevee]

Lol scratch that last sentence, that joke makes no sense there. NOT A SCUMSLIP I SWEAR, I just got distracted while writing the post.

[Axxle]

If we have time and that third person is not me, lynching someone else entirely would indeed not be the worst of the ideas. We'd force scum to waste kills on both of the two, which would mean more townies alive? It's not like the lynch would fall on a mafia member today anyways..

This road leads to massclaim.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count
Robz888 (2): Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7
Axxle (1): Insomniac
Grujah (1): sparky5856
ehunt (5): O, Axxle, Galzria, Robz888, yuma [L-4]
Insomniac (4): angrybirds, ftl, Voltgloss, shraeye [L-5]
O (2): ehunt, Eevee
shraeye (1): Grujah


not voting (0):

with 16 alive, it's 9 to lynch.

[Robz888]

Jo, you have Insomniac voting for two people.

[shraeye]

And doesn't have Axxle's vote on there.

[Eevee]

If we have time and that third person is not me, lynching someone else entirely would indeed not be the worst of the ideas. We'd force scum to waste kills on both of the two, which would mean more townies alive? It's not like the lynch would fall on a mafia member today anyways..

This road leads to massclaim.

.. until we hit someone who is a vanilla townie or something to that effect, after which we decide "better him than a power role" and lynch one of our own. What, is this day 1 of mafia in f.ds?

[ehunt]

Phone post. I agree Insomniac is probably not lying (zero reason for scum to do so). Very bad luck for town. Not sure what else I can say. Please go after O and not Insom next in the unlikely event both survive the night. Robz says I prepared my claim, that's true, I don't think that's scummy.

[ehunt]

Shray spark and eevee are town. Frisk might be town, I appreciate his seeing through the garbage case on me. volt townish, robz scummy, galz townish, yuma townish, angry townish. Insomniac probtown, axxle idk.

[ehunt]

Gruj idk, who else?

[jotheonah]

Sorry kids. Looking into it.

I had typed Insomniac's name a second time instead of Axxle's. Corrected now.

[Robz888]

Shray spark and eevee are town. Frisk might be town, I appreciate his seeing through the garbage case on me. volt townish, robz scummy, galz townish, yuma townish, angry townish. Insomniac probtown, axxle idk.

I'm the only scum in the game!

[ftl]

Gruj idk, who else?

me

[Insomniac]

I'm still not sure eHunt is lying but he is one of the only possible lynches. He could be lying but I would rate the likelihood so low that I'm willing to Vote: eHunt. I would rather lynch someone who didn't claim but it's likely they would claim if they go to L-1 in this crazy setup.

[ehunt]

Gruj idk, who else?

me

Dunno. Insomniac weren't you already voting me?

[yuma]

If ehunt is mafia. My day 2 suspicion will be on shraeye for trying to get us to focus away from the two wagons and for all the reasons I was suspicious of him earlier in the day.

Oh and abirds started school yesterday, that might be why he is pulling a disappearing act.

[jotheonah]

Gruj idk, who else?

me

Dunno. Insomniac weren't you already voting me?

No, I had messed up the vote count.

[shraeye]

I'm still not sure eHunt is lying but he is one of the only possible lynches. He could be lying but I would rate the likelihood so low that I'm willing to Vote: eHunt. I would rather lynch someone who didn't claim but it's likely they would claim if they go to L-1 in this crazy setup.

sorry, what likelihood are you rating low? You say is is unlikely that he is lying?  Then you shouldn't vote for him.

[shraeye]

If ehunt is mafia. My day 2 suspicion will be on shraeye for trying to get us to focus away from the two wagons and for all the reasons I was suspicious of him earlier in the day.

Here's why town should stop looking at either of these two wagons.  First, there are people who think Insomniac is telling the truth, and there are people who think ehunt is telling the truth.  It's possible that everyone is correct about their respective horse.

Second,

C) Insomniac is scum but gets NK'd by the other faction because they don't know if he's A or B.

This is equally true of ehunt now that Insomniac's claimed.  Either he's telling the truth and all factions will be thinking about NK'ing him this evening.  Or he is lying and is actually mafia/werewolf/SK.  Regardless of what faction he's with, there are two factions who don't know that he's scum, and they will probaly NK him anyway because either way it's rival scum or a town PR.

Both doctor-claimers are really dead tonight, so why would we help scum factions by killing them before the night even starts?  Plus, if they both trust the other, they may be able to protect eachother and still be helpful to town later. Leave the doctor-claimers for the night time and we can reassess if they don't die tonight.  For now, I want to lynch somebody who I feel is scummy, and neither Insomniac or ehunt are on that list anymore.

[shraeye]

Let me back that up by moving my vote.

Vote: Eevee I'm back to the vote I was making before the double-doctor claim fiasco.

[sparky5856]

HERE WE GO!

I'll just "think out loud" here in this post since there's a lot to think about.

First, what I said what I was going to do in my last post: analyze eHunt from the very beginning. Through the beginning just gives a very neutral read, which is why i haven't mentioned him thus far. eHunt then encourages the new folks to read though the older threads, stating you could learn a lot. This puts him slightly more towards the clean side; I don't think scum would be willing to give much advice on how to play; makes them much more likely to be tracked down.

To angrybirds, shraeye, other new folks - in MVI when I was brand new I found the constant references to old mafia games annoying and not helpful,  but you do actually learn a lot from them if you sit down and read through them. They are pretty hard to skim, though, and long.

In the next couple posts...

I'm going to confuse sparky and shraeye for the foreseeable future. How can I differentiate them? What's your playstyle? Angrybirds I can remember because he's twinclaimed by yuma.

As far as I'm concerned, the value of the old mafia games is less "seeing good mafia games" and more "learning people's behavior patterns." The primary example so far is Morgrim, whose play is very eccentric. It's easy to mistake the eccentricity for scumminess. Galzria tends to be verbose.

It's sort of boring to dig in, though.

...he very clearly seems involved in knowing the specific behavior patterns of everyone. I can understand this, it's very easy to mistaken certain behavior patterns as scum-reads, when in reality that's how they play. Unfortunately this puts me at a disadvantage in trying to read everyone... but I'm trying my best. So, so far town-reads from eHunt.

Through the first third of the thread, he doesn't seem to have any major suspicions. He votes for Frisk, and I initially picked that up as a joke vote. Voltgloss even asks for a confirmation of the vote though, and eHunt replies:

It's not an rvs vote, if that's what you're asking.

Next he defends Robz in the grand Robz vs. angrybirds debate:

Robz's absence from earlier is due to well-documented V/LAness. His hard press on angrybirds, followed by his backing off, does not strike me as scummy at all. It's very typical day one play for anyone, especially for Robz. I don't understand why he's got so many votes.

And here he's opposed to the Axxle wagon. It seems that he really does not want to jump into anything without sufficient reason first (but the Frisk vote still doesn't make sense in this regard).

I don't like the Axxle wagon at all. Robz, I think definitely you were in the right in your spat with Axxle, but you weren't like, so overwhelmingly in the right that anybody seeing it differently must be scum. Can you give more reasons for the vote?

At last, he provides his beliefs on everyone, and explains his Frisk vote. It basically relies on behavior patterns of Frisk and Morgrim. He does this because

Nobody posted for a day, so I listed my thoughts.

Here he believes Axxle's softclaim was a good move. I said this as well.

There are two wagons, and I think both of them are on town. A lot of y'all say Axxle's softclaim means nothing; I disagree and moreover I think it's a pro-town move (given that he was the likeliest lynch) to make it now instead of later.

And now this:

I'm probably violating criterion one in your list, although I have been voting for Frisk all day and am surprised nobody has joined me.

Scrolling on, he seems pretty sound in his reasons to vote for Frisk, and is extremely hesitant to remove his vote. It WAS a very early serious vote...

INTERMISSION. CAPTAIN_FRISK. He was the very first post this day, and it was a vote for Morgrim. Since, he provided very vague reasons for voting (at least to me, I can't read the whole forum to gather how Morgrim plays XD)

Quote from: Morgrim7 on August 09, 2012, 06:38:30 pm
Hi guys. Vote: Captain_Frisk for voting for me with absolutely no reason whatsoever.

I have a whole forum full of reasons!

His playstyle seems very vague altogether, not providing reason and just charging into his thoughts:

Quote from: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:15:57 pm
Well, 16 players in a non-BM game! Not bad... Hope you're up for the work Cayvie. You've got a 4000 post behemoth coming your way!

Frisk, I need to know up front, are you scum?

Sorry galz, I am not scum.

Quote from: shark_bait on August 10, 2012, 12:22:03 pm

Dude... Frisk, you can't really count BMIV.  I was only able to play that way b/c you explicitly omitted the player list.  Everyone knows that I'm actually playing in this game.

So you are admitting that you're going to play scum differently here.  Got it.

Back to eHunt, here reading this post:

Phone post. How many votes on me? I don't see how there's a case against me that's better than my case against frisk. The axxle and robz wagons are bad. Seems like case against me is: I tried to start a wagon on likely scum, no one wants to join (why?), therefore I am avoiding controversy. I would love for there to be controversy. Everyone not voting frisk: explain yourself!

Now, I would perfectly understand eHunt in this situation. Everyone seemed to be focused on Robz, angrybirds, Insomniac, and Axxle, completely ignoring eHunt's case. This is partially my fault as well, but as I cannot rely on behavior patterns to see who is scum (seeing that this is my first game), I couldn't really see a case on Captain_Frisk.

Here is where I will reread the thread from my latest post. seeing that I'm at that point anyway. I might as well mention my new suspicion right here: EEVEE. He seems to be "worrysome" about the town having too many people, which I'm gathering as losing hope for the town:

I suspect playing like I have thus far (not posting much and drawing zero attention) is exceptionally favorable for mafia in this game, because it's so huge it's very easy to blend in. In smaller games, I think lurkers often get called out when the active guys lynch the one or two guys who seem scummy and start realizing "wait.. all of these active guys sort of look towny to me" and then there is almost nothing the lurker can do. Well, here we have so so many people, that there is always going to be someone active that accidentally says something others interpret as scummy and then its easy for the lurkers to quietly steer the town towards lynching them.

Also, following a game with this many players is haaard.

If this is correct, we really are in a world of hurt. How are we supposed to find majority in 45 hours, especially considering how both of the "major wagons" are slowly dying.

And now this:

Vote: Axxle

Appears to be posting just for the sake of not lurking. I feel he isnt helping town as much as he could.

If I'm correct, the first vote on Axxle. We all now know that this reason is rubbish to vote for someone, given that we are now on page 30 almost and we all have had plenty of opportunities to help out. With this massive a thread now, we should vote to KILL SCUM, not to kill unhelpful town. (If I play again, I gotta keep this thought in mind. I acted a similar way early on but I'm now rectifying myself. Eevee should have played multiple games by now and realized this.)

Day 1 is hard! Especially with a town this size. Tomorrow, we'll have the night kills to analyze, maybe some power role results or claims, hopefully a wagon. One could almost say "that's when the real game begins".

Day 1 is just a free opportunity to kill (unhelpful) townies, according to this LOL

Let me go back to rereading the thread from my last post. First, Axxle appears to not be VT. Good for that. By shraeye:

Looks like he was content to let Axxle-wagon happen while saying he disagreed instead of pushing his own suspicions of Frisk (convince us, dude! why should we vote for Frisk?).

He DID, now reading back. But, on Eevee:

Eevee was the first one to suggest lynching someone for being in the "wrong" suit even though this is easily manipulated, that felt like it was bound to give us a town-lynch.  Another person who's only made one vote.  I don't like people who hone in on one person and keep their vote there forever, that feels like very scum-fident (confident) voting.  Also, looking through his posts, I am floored by the lack of content.  Check it out for yourself!

I completely agree about the lack of content in Eevee's posts.

Sparky's vote-count hasn't been as high as some people's, but he is the king of content per post.

I agree even more so with this. Although, despite Axxle's softclaim, I have no idea what he is.

This is back to Eevee:

Not reading back feels like an anti-town move from a townie to me.

Generally I think posting drunk looks towny.

I already referred to both of these in my last post. Posting things that seem good to post because the "king of content per post" thinks the same?

13. sparky5856: hahaha you voted for yourself and said it was a bad idea.

 

yuma:

ehunt: I agree with Eevee a lot here. My wife has dinner on the table, so I have to vote: ehunt and get back to this in my next post. I promise I will

Agrees with Eevee. Not so good in my book now. This is the point where I saved this whole post in Notepad because I'm afraid of my computer automatically restarting, and I do NOT want to type all of this again.

Later on, Volt nabs eHunt for being stubborn in his voting, only for Morgrim reasons, but eHunt DID mention other reasons to vote for Frisk.

He (possibly RVS) votes Morgrim. Later, a fight about Morgrim happens; Frisk defends the case on Morgrim. I call him out for it and vote. He responds sarcastically. Time passes, and then he unvotes, saying it was just RVS, even though he had been defensive about it before. He's posted 8 times since then, and that was like a week ago. In those 8 posts, his only substantive one is IIoA. He also voted for Robz, a wagon that I don't like at all.

ftl doesn't get a scumread from eHunt. Neutral reads from him so far, although this pushes him more towards the clean side. Pretty much all the ehunt voters at this point go on the watch list. I say this because reading back I believe eHunt's accusations and thoughts to be genuine.

I want to remark on the argument that morgrim-hunting-hunting is a scumtell. I think that morgrim-hunting-hunting-hunting is a stronger scumtell.

vote: ehunt for this piece of work.

Gotta admit, I lol'ed at this. All this means, though, is a confirmation of eHunt's reliance on theory to find scum. And that O is being O it seems like. I only need to play ONE day to figure that one out.

That said, the OMGUS discussion re: ehunt brought something else to my eye:  Insomniac's #587 reply to Axxle.  Which is really blatant OMGUS.  Rather than address Axxle's actual argument - that Insom's post history lacks content and shows flip-flopping - Insom instead turned around and attacked (and voted) Axxle for allegedly "starting two wagons."  And I have to agree with Axxle that the ehunt wagon has been driven by others (me included).

Hmm... very good observation. The Axxle wagon is pretty much dead by now. I would have made a defense if I were Insomniac.

Now THIS is intriguing. eHunt UNVOTES from Frisk. This I can also perfectly understand given his situation. Frisk hasn't been the center of attention in the last few pages. So, let's refocus. He attacks Galzria for inconsistencies in his arguments. The O vote was an improper move though. I wouldn't have held him accountable for voting because of a (Hunting * Graham's Number) Morgrim debacle.

@modS: Need more Vote Count

YES.

Much of the last few pages just seem to be Galzria, O, and eHunt all making pointless attempts to argue. I don't feel it's worthy to change my position on anything uhhhh you just suitclaimed. why did you do that. i thought we were well past that argument. This made things rather tricky if you vote on eHunt. If eHunt IS the ten of wands, then everyone who voted really IS on the chopping block now. OR, he has a Major Arcana role that really depends on eHunt not dying, and he doesn't want people to vote for him. And of course, he can't reveal that because that is super-unknown. You can't just claim Major Arcana because that could mean anything, it only attracts attention to yourself I ALREADY RAMBLED ABOUT THIS IN LIKE MY FIRST POST

If he's lying, then he's lying, that's that. Well, it seems to be working thus far. People seem to be going for insomniac now. And Axxle? WHY? And THIS!

My claim won't be believed but I am a doctor. I was tryin to discern whether or not that makes eHunt a liar or not that's why I haven't revealed.

Also RE: eHunt is anybody else forgetting that there is a possibility of mafia doctors?

Here's my thoughts on Insomniac: his posts seem poorly constructed, as noticed by a few other people. Notice how he doesn't say what KIND of doctor he is, mafia or town. eHunt already claims to be town doctor. What other doctors are there!? So now, this can only mean one thing. It's either Insomniac or eHunt who's scum. They can't both be the town doctor. And in the second quote... maybe he hasn't forgotten the possibility of mafia doctors, because he knows there is one? I'm solid in my position that eHunt is innocent.

But wait. What the heck is a ninja doctor? I read on Mafia Scum that he's anti-town. Someone want to clarify on this position? It doesn't make sense. Insomniac's claiming of ninja doctor sounds desperate, like "oops I shouldn't have done that". And wasn't he against suit-claiming in the first place?

TLDR

eHunt is innocent. Major suspicions lie in Eevee and Insomniac. I have been typing this for a couple hours now and I am tired. I'm pretty solid on my suspicions. I was gonna go for Eevee today, but Insomniac's claim just seems too contradictory, I'm going for him instead.

UNVOTE: Grujah

VOTE: Insomniac

I really hope I'm right to do this. I'm tired.

Warning - while you were typing 54 new replies...

yeah yeah I read them.

[sparky5856]

How many hours do we have left until the deadline?

[Voltgloss]

sparky, a "Ninja Doctor" would be a Doctor whose use of the Doctoring ability can't be seen by a Tracker or Watcher.  If I recall correctly, the only Tracker and/or Watcher in the setup are scum roles.  That would make Ninja Doctor a Town role.

vote: ehunt.  I moved my vote from him to Insom because of ehunt's claim; now Insom has (almost literally) balanced that scale.  Taking both doctor claims out of the equation, I'm going back to my strongest scumread.

I believe we have about 21 hours to deadline.