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[Robz888]

Why am I scummy, again?

It's something you did 12 pages ago. Wouldn't you like to know?

Eevee!!! I laughed out loud at this. Good one.

[sparky5856]

It's easy to miss a lot when you sleep for 12 hours in a row 

I need a vote count.

Galzria (1): angrybirds
Captain_Frisk (1): ehunt
Robz888 (3): Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, O
Axxle (3): Eevee, Galzria, Voltgloss
shraeye (1): yuma
ehunt (1): O
Eevee (1): Grujah
Grujah (1): ftl

not voting (3): Insomniac, Me, Axxle

I don't like either of the two major wagons at the moment, and I've already explained my thoughts on each of them. I think Axxle's softclaim helps him more than hurts him. There could be some uber-powerful town roles in this game (although really, any town role could fill his position, although with that he's more likely to have a PR), and if Axxle is lying, that only hurts him (if evidence is found to contradict the softclaim, he's only gonna get lynched faster). Robz had reason to vote for Abirds (as I previously mentioned), and then people jump on Robz, even forcing a Catch-22 as shraeye mentioned.

As far as shraeye goes, I'm thinking back to that long drunk post he made. It seems less likely that he would have made that if he was scum, because when playing as scum, you have to focus more on defense and less on scumhunting (although that's still valid in this game due to the other factions, SK most importantly since that's been confirmed). If shraeye is the SK, I'll be extremely dumbfounded. You really have to concentrate on defense there, since you're against everyone. So really, he would be okay with any lynch, which doesn't make any sense at all considering the vast amount of content in his posts. If 1/4 of roles really are VT, then he has a 11/15 chance of just throwing a dart onto a wall blindly with everyone's names on it, and successfully picking a PR.

I dunno how the SK would exactly play. I've never played with one in any game. Jumping on any strong bandwagon seems like a good idea, because if you're going against everyone, lynch anyone and you survive another day, and you get to kill someone. Maybe directing the attention towards lynching Mafia/WW would be good, since it's easy to think about them. So, who jumps out the most as the SK?

...Why am I even rambling about this. I'm supposed to be deciding who at all is anti-town. I don't have a vote on anyone. That should change. VOTE: Grujah. I find it odd that he would't want to read the earlier portions of the thread, I've already voted on his more fish-like form in the past, and voting for someone that already has been voted on at this point is better, since it's easier to start a bandwagon that way. Hey, here's a tip, nabbing players for something they did 10-20 pages back is a good way to play this game and to stay on top of it. And for Grujah that's apparently not possible.

Day 1 is almost over and we need something.

Warning - while you were typing 9 new replies have been posted.

HOOVER DAMMIT

Anyways, eHunt. Axxle mentions he's scummy. I don't really have an opinion on him, I'll have to Print Page F3 "eHunt on" to gather such.

[O]

I believe I was the first to mention that Robz was in a Catch-22.

[Voltgloss]

I think Axxle's softclaim helps him more than hurts him. There could be some uber-powerful town roles in this game (although really, any town role could fill his position, although with that he's more likely to have a PR), and if Axxle is lying, that only hurts him (if evidence is found to contradict the softclaim, he's only gonna get lynched faster).

What sort of evidence are you envisioning that could contradict Axxle's softclaim? 

[Captain_Frisk]

Okay, I asked because I've recently noticed his surprising relative silence.

Yeah - admittedly so - goko, golf, beer tasting, family time etc.  When I post counted it up however - I clearly wasn't out of line.  It's amazing what happens when you just kindof skim and know that you don't want to reply without really reading... and all the sudden you can't really reply until you sit down for 30 minutes to catch up...

[Grujah]

So, hi, sparky, nice to meet you.

So you were writing that post for almost an hour? Kinda scummy. 

[Captain_Frisk]

Suspect me a lot, never even mention yuma (who is mafia, revealed day 6). Eventually settle on voting for morgrim, who then selfhammers and flips town. Yeah, the usual.

IMO, mobs should NEVER kill morgrim. Vigs, on other hand, should.

Can you explain this thinking please?

He is a mislynch waiting to happen. Only game where he wasn't mislynched was MVI because I vouched for him; otherwise he would have died.
Why kill someone who can save you a day?

Vig, on other hand (no one-shot, full), can get a potential mob but generally not too much helpful townie out of the way.

Sorry for jumping back a few pages - but I asked the question and wanted to respond to this.  I don't understand the difference between a lynch and a vig kill on M7. 

Either way - he's either town or he is scum.  He is just as likely to be scum as any of the rest of us.  Scum already know the answer.  If we lynched him during the day and vigged him at night, or the other way around - you have the exact same scenario when you wake up the next day.  There might not even be a vig - so if you're the type of person who doesn't want morgrim @ deadline time - then you should lynch him early - possibly during day 1 where the lynching is mostly random anyway.  Hoping that the vig takes care of him is anti town.  How would the vig's decision to shoot morgrim be any different?  You wouldn't ask a vig to shoot randomly, why would you have him shoot M7?

As for morgrim letting scum of the hook for voting for him because its so easy - thats just garbage.  Have we ever had a situation where we have caught scum driving a lynch for bad reasons?  At the end of the day we rarely go back and look at how agressively people pushed or didn't push - we just look at the votes.

[Axxle]

Either way - he's either town or he is scum.  He is just as likely to be scum as any of the rest of us.  Scum already know the answer.

You forget there's two scumteams in all likelihood.

[sparky5856]

I believe I was the first to mention that Robz was in a Catch-22.

Ah yes this is true. You were the first to comment on it, and shraeye specifically mentioned it as a Catch-22.

UNVOTE: Grujah

VOTE: sparky5856

...nah, bad idea.

UNVOTE: sparky5856

VOTE: Grujah

I think Axxle's softclaim helps him more than hurts him. There could be some uber-powerful town roles in this game (although really, any town role could fill his position, although with that he's more likely to have a PR), and if Axxle is lying, that only hurts him (if evidence is found to contradict the softclaim, he's only gonna get lynched faster).

What sort of evidence are you envisioning that could contradict Axxle's softclaim? 

Good question. I was going for that if such evidence is found, it's only gonna accelerate his demise. We're gonna need more days to figure this out though. If a lot of pro-town power roles are killed in the future, for instance, that goes against Axxle. This reasoning gets trickier though if Axxle is just VT. Other than that, it'll really have to be just standard evidence. The only evidence that is the true opposite of his soft claim is if he's scum, so we DO want to lynch him. That's what we're trying to figure out though. Hey, maybe we can brainstorm this.

So, hi, sparky, nice to meet you.

So you were writing that post for almost an hour? Kinda scummy. 

I was distracted by phone calls in the meantime. It wasn't all writing that post  I DO like to put effort in my posts though, I'm a logical kind of person. 

[Grujah]

Suspect me a lot, never even mention yuma (who is mafia, revealed day 6). Eventually settle on voting for morgrim, who then selfhammers and flips town. Yeah, the usual.

IMO, mobs should NEVER kill morgrim. Vigs, on other hand, should.

Can you explain this thinking please?

He is a mislynch waiting to happen. Only game where he wasn't mislynched was MVI because I vouched for him; otherwise he would have died.
Why kill someone who can save you a day?

Vig, on other hand (no one-shot, full), can get a potential mob but generally not too much helpful townie out of the way.

Sorry for jumping back a few pages - but I asked the question and wanted to respond to this.  I don't understand the difference between a lynch and a vig kill on M7. 

Either way - he's either town or he is scum.  He is just as likely to be scum as any of the rest of us.  Scum already know the answer.  If we lynched him during the day and vigged him at night, or the other way around - you have the exact same scenario when you wake up the next day.  There might not even be a vig - so if you're the type of person who doesn't want morgrim @ deadline time - then you should lynch him early - possibly during day 1 where the lynching is mostly random anyway.  Hoping that the vig takes care of him is anti town.  How would the vig's decision to shoot morgrim be any different?  You wouldn't ask a vig to shoot randomly, why would you have him shoot M7?

As for morgrim letting scum of the hook for voting for him because its so easy - thats just garbage.  Have we ever had a situation where we have caught scum driving a lynch for bad reasons?  At the end of the day we rarely go back and look at how agressively people pushed or didn't push - we just look at the votes.

You are probably right, and I wrong, thing is Morgrim wagons are easy to fake into and is generally not useful. (only few people that I played with in Morgrim games I could read from Morg wagon, I guess).

[Axxle]

This reasoning gets trickier though if Axxle is just VT.

I would never softclaim a power role as a VT.

[Captain_Frisk]

So - if I can read this correctly - we have 11 possible VTs out of 52 cards?  (I'm not sure if cayvie drew N regular cards and M arcana, to get a desire or just mixed all of them together and then if too many arcana showed up just dialed it back)

If we don't lynch power roles - then it is likely that we won't lynch today.  I mean - we are far more likely to hit scum (~18 roles?) than we are to hit pure vanilla town.

If you think Axxle is scummy - then we should force the claim, and then monitor him.  Unless he is pro town major arcana - even knowing that he's a power role won't necessarily make him a target - since the town is likely to be mostly power roles, and scum teams want to hunt eachother first - speaking from experience as a 2 time scum in a multi scumteam game. (IV, VI)

@Axxle - can you summarize the case against you for me?

[Axxle]

@Axxle - can you summarize the case against you for me?

I talk too much and say too little.
My push against Robz for his actions against Angrybirds was scummy (dunno why you didn't get as much flak for this)

[Eevee]

Unvote
Axxle seems to be interested in helping town again (yay), and I'm liking the semi-wagons we have less and less. I do realize I'd need to find an alternative lynch target fast though, so I'll try to come back with a vote soon.

Seriously guys, it's too late to be not voting!

[Eevee]

So - if I can read this correctly - we have 11 possible VTs out of 52 cards?  (I'm not sure if cayvie drew N regular cards and M arcana, to get a desire or just mixed all of them together and then if too many arcana showed up just dialed it back)

Not all the "power roles" are really power roles though. Stuff like WOSV is more like a named townie tbh, the actual role is of so little utility. Making scum lie day1 is also quite beneficial, especially because all the cards all public and counterclaims can easily happen.

[Axxle]

Yuma, angrybirds:  You guys barely have mentioned each other. Reads?

[Eevee]

Galzria (1): angrybirds
Captain_Frisk (1): ehunt
Robz888 (3): Captain_Frisk, Morgrim7, O
Axxle (2): Galzria, Voltgloss
shraeye (1): yuma
ehunt (1): O
Eevee (1): Grujah
Grujah (1): ftl

If this is correct, we really are in a world of hurt. How are we supposed to find majority in 45 hours, especially considering how both of the "major wagons" are slowly dying.

First instinct was to vote for Frisk, but then I remembered he has been lurky in all of the games recently. I do think he looks a bit scummy here. Then I thought of ehunt, becase he is playing quite different than the town-ehunt in MVI. Why is ehunt not being questioned more?

Vote: ehunt

[yuma]

Yuma, angrybirds:  You guys barely have mentioned each other. Reads?

i need to do a comprehensive list or reads on everyone, but for now I'll answer that I think he is newb townie.

[shraeye]

Shraeye's assessment.
angrybirds: There's something weird here.  I don't like that angrybirds made this vote basically from the start and hasn't changed it since.  Even after all the explaining he's done, it's hard to believe that angrybirds actually feels this way.  That's a read that I would build up over time, not one I would jump to after about 115 posts, one-fifth of which were confirming role-receiving, one-fifth of which were complete RVS, and then continue to hold until the post count reached 500.  Maybe he's scared to peel off of his initial assessment and jump on any bandwagon, since bandwagon lynches sometimes feel scummy.  Maybe he's not actively looking for any scumtells, so can't put down solid arguments explaining why A and B were scumtells from player X.  On rereading I don't like his response to Robz in #276; his posts and behavior did not speak for themselves, he had hardly any substantiative posts except to vaguely back up his snap-judgement on Galzria.  His putting Robz on suspicious list due to Robz "suspecting" him felt less like OMGUS, and more like "when people realize I bring heat when they suspect me, they will be very hesitant to do it.  This scum's surviving 'til the end, huzzah!"  I can understand you still holding suspicions on Galzria, but move your vote to something that's gonna happen this round, because clearly other people are not behind your Galzria-read.
Axxle: Well Axxle's purposful-ignoring of any accusations/heat really rubbed me the wrong way.  I can buy the arguement in #348 if this were day 2 or later and we had things of real substance to analyze/vote on.  But frankly, Day 1 townies know nothing, and that makes this start difficult for us. I rely on seeing how people react to get reads, since there is little else, but no reaction=hiding tells=suspicious to me.  I'm not asking you to spend the whole day defending yourself, but on day one where suspicion is sprayed around with a fire-hose and evidence is hard to find, you aren't spending your time better by broadcasting your opinion while ignoring any suspicion on you.  Buuuut, I'm looking at your softclaim and the list of possible roles (excluding Major Arcana, which I can only guess at).  I really hate how softly you put this claim, but it may have been just enough.  It's possible that you are town-aligned Vengeful.  I feel less gung-ho to lynch you after this claim, so I take back my previous scoff at its effectiveness.
Eevee:  Eevee was the first one to suggest lynching someone for being in the "wrong" suit even though this is easily manipulated, that felt like it was bound to give us a town-lynch.  Another person who's only made one vote.  I don't like people who hone in on one person and keep their vote there forever, that feels like very scum-fident (confident) voting.  Also, looking through his posts, I am floored by the lack of content.  Check it out for yourself!
ehunt: Really supported getting the conversations started, and helping newer players join in.  Firm in his anti-Axxle wagon stance.  I read him as townish, but he is also in hardcore lurk mode.  No posts in almost 2 days and over 100 posts, this is suspicious enough to remove all townish reads and send him at least down to neutral.  Looks like he was content to let Axxle-wagon happen while saying he disagreed instead of pushing his own suspicions of Frisk (convince us, dude! why should we vote for Frisk?). Frisk is his only vote so far, this pushes him down to scum-read.
Frisk: Very neutral read.  He seems to be trying hard to lynch correctly, and is moving his suspicions/questions around even though his vote has mostly been on Robz.  Can you tell us some more thoughts regarding different people, Frisk?
ftl: I think ftl did the right thing in trying to start a wagon, but he did back off too early.  His terribleness at vote-counting gives me a hilarious town-read.  So there you go, egregious mistakes=towntell in my eyes I guess.  He's been very liberal at moving his vote around, and rereads old posts.  Town in my eyes; however, he is in lurk mode now.
Galzria: Galz needs to post more substantiative stuff.  He had a unique read on Axxle, that was a legitimate reason for voting Axxle I believe.  He is in lurk mode, if not in post-count, then definitely in content.
Insomniac: Insomniac's post that cleared him from previous suspicion was #247.  He really seems to disappear for periods of time, but he's almost always returning to us with content-posts instead of witticisms and one-liners.  It really irks me that Insomniac hasn't cast his vote for anyone (do it, like, do it now! even if you're the first vote on someone; make a scum-prediction and back it up with a vote).  Regardless, I get slight town read from him.
Morgrim:  I really like the change he's made towards posting a bit more, and stating his analysis.  Even if it goes against how he "normally plays" I agree with Eevee that we should encourage good behavior instead of punishing it.  He suspects Galz, votes for Insomniac, jumps on Robz bandwagon.  But he doesn't jump on the Axxle one, which is a plus, because being part of every bandwagon just seems way too eager to lynch, regardless of correctness (if we find somebody doing this, I'm thinking SK).  I'm getting a slight town read, but definitely put him in my no-lynch category.
O: O makes what looks like a gut-reaction vote on Robz after Robz questions angrybirds, but I get a neutral read off this. I don't like your take on ehunt's person-summary; "very town" is a legitimate read without tyring to buddy up to someone.  He seems to be trying really hard to make a good lynch; not as many posts as others, but they are usually full of content.  I get a slight town-read.
Robz: Robz clearly started the game very lurker-y, but for good reason.  He immediately jumps into a spat with angrybirds.  I doesn't look like he deserved as much heat as he got, but he reacted to that heat pretty badly.  I still get a pretty neutral read on Robz, leaning slight town. His quick jump off Axxle felt weird, but I think he has the right of it.
sharkbait/Grujah: Really hard to read, natually, due to the switch.  Grujah, keep posting at your current great rate.  I'm not liking how content-less his posts have been, but keep in mind he missed out on the fun RVS phase that we all got to do.  Funtime is over, Grujah. We gotta push for a good lynch soon.  I'm keeping him at a neutral-to-scum read, but I'd still be ok with a Grujah lynch based on sharky's lurking followed by Grujah's being all over the place. 
shraeye: I'm me.  I write long posts.  I have long thoughts.  I get drunk.  It doesn't stop me from posting.
sparky: Sparky's vote-count hasn't been as high as some people's, but he is the king of content per post.  In his posts, he is clearly not afraid of letting everyone know what he's been thinking and has jumped on multiple suspicious actions, and this reads as town to me.  Even if you don't agree with my town-read on sparky, I would still put him in a no-lynch category because we always want people who are willing to provide analysis and information freely.  Though I don't like that he precalled me out in case Axxle flips town.  If sparky is scum, and is therefore more likely to know that Axxle is town, he is setting himself a nice fall-guy for a day 2 lynch.
Voltgloss: Also very unafraid to put out his opinion.  This puts him in a no-lynch category, since if he's scum I feel it will be easier to tell as the game goes on as opposed to a more reticent scum.  His call for everyone voting is a super pro-town move, he also appears to be very convincable to jump on different bandwagons.  Also, he is pushing pretty hard for a lurker to be lynched, which feels as long as we count lurkers as people lacking content instead of simply people with low post counts.
yuma: I really like the way he will ask questions of people (I think he's done this to Morgrim, Insomniac, maybe others) and doesn't let go.  It's much better to push for answers than to throw out questions as accusations and then move on if they don't pick up any momentum among other players.  This feels pretty towny to me.  I read his stubbornness of keeping his vote on me instead of just jumping on a Robz/Axxle wagon that seemed inevitable as town actually.  He doesn't want a lynch of Robz or Axxle because it's convenient, he wants a good lynch.  He should reread my posts if he still gets scum vibes from me, but I appreciate his push for a good lynch.

tl;dr
Well then read it!  I don't care if it's too long.  There are 2 questions there that I want answers to, and I need Insomniac to respond to my demands of him.
Summary
Lynches I would support: angrybirds (scummy/SK?), eevee (scummy), ehunt (not willing to defend/push his convictions on Frisk+slight scum), Galzria (waaay too lurkerish), Grujah(sharkbait lurking+Grujah's late RVSing)

No-lynch: ftl (town), Insomniac (slight town+good content), Morgrim (slight-town+finally giving content), O (slight town+good content), shraeye (town), Voltgloss (town+good content)

Everyone else is in a bit of a neutral category.  I don't want to lynch them yet, but I don't think I'd defend them yet.
Axxle (slight town), Frisk (neutral read), Robz (neutral to slight town), sparky (slight town, but I feel suspicioius), yuma (slight town)

Vote: Eevee

[Axxle]

Axxle: Well Axxle's purposful-ignoring of any accusations/heat really rubbed me the wrong way.  I can buy the arguement in #348 if this were day 2 or later and we had things of real substance to analyze/vote on.  But frankly, Day 1 townies know nothing, and that makes this start difficult for us. I rely on seeing how people react to get reads, since there is little else, but no reaction=hiding tells=suspicious to me.  I'm not asking you to spend the whole day defending yourself, but on day one where suspicion is sprayed around with a fire-hose and evidence is hard to find, you aren't spending your time better by broadcasting your opinion while ignoring any suspicion on you.  Buuuut, I'm looking at your softclaim and the list of possible roles (excluding Major Arcana, which I can only guess at).  I really hate how softly you put this claim, but it may have been just enough.  It's possible that you are town-aligned Vengeful.  I feel less gung-ho to lynch you after this claim, so I take back my previous scoff at its effectiveness.

Axxle (slight town)

[Eevee]

Eevee:  Eevee was the first one to suggest lynching someone for being in the "wrong" suit even though this is easily manipulated, that felt like it was bound to give us a town-lynch.  Another person who's only made one vote.  I don't like people who hone in on one person and keep their vote there forever, that feels like very scum-fident (confident) voting.  Also, looking through his posts, I am floored by the lack of content.  Check it out for yourself!

I had moved my vote from Axxle to ehunt before this post. I dont remember saying "we should lynch someone from the wrong suit", I just pointed out the odds of each of the suits having scum in them. IIRC I actually did it to point out it's a bad idea, but I'm not sure about that.[/quote]

Being part of every bandwagon just seems way too eager to lynch, regardless of correctness (if we find somebody doing this, I'm thinking SK).

I'm thinking playstyle (for the most part anyways). Hunting for the SK in a setup with gazillion players when we cant even find scum is.. not pro-town. Generally mafia wants the town to focus on SK-hunting.

Two random bulletpoints full of content:
* Generally I think posting drunk looks towny. Especially if it's a huge rant you obviously didn't proofread, it makes me think you are not afraid to post your honest thought. If you can't produce a single sentence without spelling errors, how confident can you be on your abilities to not leave scum tells? Then again, if you are the cocky kind of drunk you might thing "Well surely I will be able to!".

* Not reading back feels like an anti-town move from a townie to me. Mafia does not want to draw that kind of attention.  Grujah has to realize how anti-town not bothering to read back is when some guys read these threads twice or thrice, would he really be willing to risk town getting angry and policy lynching him if he was scum? Although, since I like serial killer hunting on day 1 so much.. serial killer cares the least about reads or whats happening around town. But then there is the unfortunate meta of subbing.. who wants to get subbed out from an awesome role? And most people consider scum roles pretty awesome.

[Morgrim7]

1. Insomniac: Still scummy, but now less so.
2. Voltgloss: Lurking. Which is annoying.
3. Captain_Frisk: Would like to hear his reads on everyone.
4. shark_bait Grujah: I support this lynch.
5. Eevee: This one too.
6. Robz888: ARRRGGGG People he is scum.
7. O: O is being O.
8. yuma: Please give thoughts on everyone.
9. ftl: lurking.
10. Galzria: Ultralurk. Somewhat scummy.
11. shraeye: I like him. Townish.
12. angrybirds: Oh, I dunno. Maybe slightly town?
13. sparky5856: hahaha you voted for yourself and said it was a bad idea.
14. Morgrim7: How do you guys see me?
15. Axxle: ARRG I've had enough.
16. ehunt: Slight town.

[yuma]

In same order as Morgrim:

Insomniac: I'll have a better idea once he votes... and an even better idea if he continues to not vote.

Voltgloss: On the Axxle wagon which I didn't agree with. But Axxle's softclaim complicates matters. I wouldn't want to lynch Axxle today, but he is becoming more lynchable. But this is supposed to be about Voltgloss...

Frisk: I know how it feels to want to vote Morgrim, so I don't feel the irk there.

Grujah: I don't care that he doesn't want to read the previous 20 pages. No big deal for me. Waiting to see more from him.

Robz: His reaction to angrybirds to me was completely justified and normal. His reaction to people reacting to him was him showing frustration in a frustrating situation. He could be mafia, but I wouldn't lynch him just because of that. If anything I see it as more evidence of town and would alleviate anything else suspicious that he might do.

O: I forget he is playing sometimes

ftl: Want him to keep the pressure on Grujah so we can see what we can get out of it.

Galz: Not the galz I remember from Mafia III. Like Voltgloss is on the Axxle wagon. What do you think Galz of people abandoning that wagon? When will you?

shraeye: I am much less suspicious of shraeye. First: he has continued with long posts. My suspicions of him did not change his behavior, I would expect that if he were mafia to change behavior but he has been consistent throughout, except that 2. his posts have a lot more content that I see as useful for town. Could still be mafia? Yes. But more important he isn't getting lynched today.

angrybirds: O Brother Where Art Thou? I disagree with shraeye about him, but maybe that is because I personally know him. He is playing just like his personality and in my opinion as a newbie town.

sparky: not a huge read on. Wish I had more to say here... maybe later

Morgrim7: You are doing it! You are adding content to the game. I knew you could do it!

Axxle: Softclaim was interesting and actually made him more suspicious in my eyes, but I still don't think we should vote for him.

ehunt: I agree with Eevee a lot here. My wife has dinner on the table, so I have to vote: ehunt and get back to this in my next post. I promise I will

[O]

I'm not sure why everyone keeps forgetting I'm playing. I don't feel as if I've been lurking.

[Morgrim7]

My reads on Eevee were wrong. Oh, goodness. Lack of content, weird voting suggestions, the whole shebang. He looks pretty scummy. But Robz is worse. For reconfirmation, VOTE: ROBZ888