Argg! This is a dificult game, man
@Insomniac, post #247 clears you of most of the problems in my head, your first response in 63 sounded like you were tryin to write something huge , and then cayvie's post popped up and made obsolete some of the things you were saying. There is only one deal left and that is point four in #247. You are clearly assuming that if 2 people say "I have cups" then we definitely have Mafia. What?? Thast' crazy talk. tehre are plenty of nonmafia roles in every suit (i still dont know how we could get anyone to voluunteer, it seems that if 2 ppl claim cups you assume there is mafia, so one of themhas to be it--no town, mafia, ww, or other will jump infront of that gun). So i'm feeling more like you are with me these days,and are just confused about probability, or something like that. So i'm rereading everyingn to see who I would switch my bvote to and golly, this is a diffcult game! I'm flippin/ paranoid of everybody! (ow, just accidently punched ans endtqble!!) it turns out that i even type with big gestureso, and not jsut talk withthem.
recently ftl gag seems exactly like a mistake to me; not scummy slipupmisake, because it's way too ridiculous to not be a brainfart/total slip. I'm expecting a scummy ftl to find a way to nonchalontly pull off of Galz and onto whatever bandwagon might work. A town ftl probably wouldn't want to stay on a galz wagon just because he hasn't been posting as muh as usual, thats just a flimsy reason. the difference is how he does it. ftl misses O's voteswitch to voltglosss (galz now at 3) gets worried that angry will be a new bote on Galz DESPITE FTL being teh guy who asked angrybird to explain why galz seems scummy enough tokeep his voet there. Then enter ehunt, with really strange analysis with not wanting to be the 5th voter. is 5th voter a thing?? ?? that sounds stupid. also, in a hilarious comedy of errors, ftl was never worried about being the 5th vote he was incorrectly not wanting to be 4th of 5 when he would have actually been 3 of 3 if he had stayed. I disagree with Axxles suspicoun over ftl's flipflop on galz pressure. he wanted a bandwagon to see what happened. nothing happend. Now he's reasssessing players and he says "i don't want 5 on galz". i agree, i also gonot want galz to be lynched, he's giving me complete null reads, and I want to lynch someoen who i read as sucm.
here's the real deal guys. i realized taht people who are not scum hunting, or are trying to look hunty without actually doing it are just playing badyly. with teh multiple factions, those old tells aren't hte same. EVERYBODY wants to scumhunt now. it's even beetter to be scumhunting as scum because the people you suspect/find coudl only ever be at best (when a scumtell is spoton) a competng scum faction, or if you're wrong it's a townie, there's no way to fail for them. now me, i'm terrified at failing, and i suspect if we go back and read tings, which i'll do tomorrwo when i sober up, those who area the most terrified are probably more likely to be town. So damn, that sentence makes me recondier Galz, who sparky keeps saying is confident. but it's different confidence maybe, i mean, im loking for someone who is scared of voting ofr the wrong person, not someone who is scared of being voted for--those guys are my town reads, or will be, or mightnot if i can't tell whose sufficiently scared.
but wait, sparky is on my list of suspicious dudes right now, even though he was almost on my certain-town list a while ago. check this, he started off by asking "why dont major arcana just claim?" in #83 and I had him explain it. that was back in everyfuckingslipupis ascumtell-shraeye days. but it's not, mistakes happen too, and if i inspect hard enoguh i bet i can find some of MY posts that don't sit well with me for some reason. but the question we need to ask is why did this mistake happen, and was it relevent. so here i go with some analysis on spartky.
He explained his reason for saying that in #100, but
here's my reasoning. I initially found Volt's query unnecessarily complex. Once you suit claim, there's automatically a possibility you're Major Arcana
is weird. voltgloss's query wasnt complex, and the auto-possibility doesn't come after a suitclaim. it came when we started this game. when you sort MajorA into suits, of course theres a possibility that a particluar card from one suit is a MajorA, that's not news or a reason for anything. But he does say he eventually realized that people will be watching you more closely so it's hard. why wouldn't he immediately realize that people will watch the major arcana for scumminess, maybe because he personal is not trying to assess whether they're scum, jsut what they can do to jack up his faciton's plans, since any major arcana he doens't already know about will definitely be an enemy and is super killable. for us townies, when a major arcana comes out, we STILL don't know if we want them dead because they might be on our side and our only real chance of overcoming 3 mafia facions.
NExt, he makes some regular hunty posts, with no town/scum reads to them. but in 155 before i can explain why i voted insomniac in the first place he says
He's already expressed his disagreement with one of Insomniac's posts.
Here was my "disagreement":
If you want something more interesting to discuss look at this post:
So I was gonna say that the main benefit of suit claiming might be to discern if we are dealing with one or two scum factions but perhaps the wind will tell us so I'm going to be against suit claiming
where Insomniac posits that suit-claiming will let us know how many factions we are dealing with. Protip: it won't tell us anything unless either wands/swords or pentacles/cups had no claimers since we have no good way to tell or suspect that a particular suitclaim is scum. Maybe he and his scummates were planning to claim in the other suits (all WW wands move to Cups, all WW Swords move to Pentacles, as an example) and make it look like there was one less faction. No real evidence here, only a bit of food for thought.
Says Insomniac is incorrect, makes seemingly baseless-galz-style accusation, says this isn't really strong evidence. MAN, that's not disagreement (the fact that i did have personal disagreement with Insomniac's post is irelevent beause that fact only became public in post #159) why were you trying to escalate me against insomniac? sounds like you KNOW insomniac is not on your team.
HEre's what really gets me; sparky posts "What, what, and what? Why should we have exactly 2 deaths? " does it sound like anyone else that he's too concerned about how many deaths there will be. the exact number of deaths is that last thing on earth that is terrifying me right now. but it might be of much more concern to someone who has an influence over nightdeaths.
Well slap me with a wrench, i went to look at the next post
One theory that I developed over the years that may be completely bonkers is that longer posts = pro-town. It means that you're putting more effort into protecting the good guys. With mafia, it's hard to do that. Moreover, if mafia just try to disprove anyone whenever the opportunity presents itself, instead of putting their thoughts into one specific issue, it gives them more room into faking innocence. Someone who fits this bill perfectly, is Axxle. His posts seem to be all over the map, and they don't add much.
well, i don't know if in general long posts mean pro-town/anti-town but yeah, it does indicate more effort into hunting. but in this game EVERYONE wants to hunt! This post makes me go"ohsnap" i have the wrong read on him". it just feels very genuinely allscumhunty.
Like sparky, axxle, you i also suspect. but this post is gettin enourmous. like my tiredness. so don't jump on that last bit till i can clairify. in the mronign. or afternoon when i wake up.
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Topic: Mafia IX: Major Arcana Mafia (CONGRATULATIONS VOLTGLOSS, aka DEATH) (Read 165571 times)