What, what, and what?
Robz, the mod confirmed there is at least one SK.
Right, so we should have 2 deaths, and then maybe a 3rd if Vig or something. But ftl said 2 deaths would mean no Sk...
Why should we have exactly 2 deaths? The odds of there being that a Mafia and Werewolf faction exist is pretty high. Let me see if I got calculations right; if I'm reading over The Deck correctly, there's 8 Werewolf Roles out of a possible 52 Minor Arcana Roles, which there's 14 of, given 2 Major Arcana roles. The probability of there NOT having Werewolves in this game is (44/52)*(41/51)*...*(31/39) [14 fractions, one for each role selection NOT werewolf] is approx. 6.5%. Doing the same process for mafia, I'm getting a 4.4% chance that there's no mafia. But of course, what mafia game wouldn't have mafia. Still, if we subtract each from 100%, we get 93.5% and 95.6% chances of there having Werewolf and Mafia factions in this game, respectively. Multiplying them gives about an 89% chance that both factions are in this game. And all of that isn't even including the Major Arcana. There could be scum roles there too, although that's impossible to calculate given no real information on them.
Therefore, assuming all night kills are successful, then there will mostly likely be 3 (or more) deaths over the night. There exists a CHANCE of 2 deaths occurring, but it's not guaranteed. Which is why I'm confused that there should be 2 deaths.
Math is fun.
If one person from the mafia aligned suits voluntarily claimed and one from the other suits voluntarily claimed it would prove that there were multi factions, but the scum could use it to game the town. Additionally there isn't really a good way to handle the major arcana. Hence I came out against suit claiming.
Let me
try to make sense of this. Let's say that I claim, Pentacles. 5/13 chance of being Mafia. Then, someone else claims "one from the other suits". Okay, so this is Cups, Wands, or Swords. They claim Cups, let's say. No Werewolves there. So, how would this prove that there are multiple factions? Maybe you meant that if one claims Cups/Pentacles, another claims Wands/Swords, or something like that. But wouldn't it be important to make that distinction?
And I don't think the opposing factions would want to work together, each faction is trying to win on their own. Moreover, they are capable of killing each other, when most Town roles can't, so they pose more of a
threat. I've already expressed my opinions on handling the Major Arcana. Just mentioning it in one sentence doesn't really add a lot.
Quote from: Insomniac on August 11, 2012, 03:34:40 pm
I never said we should suit claim I was saying a select few claiming could reveal if there are multiple factions. Quite the contrary I oppose suit claiming especially en masse
Well he had never made a select few/en masse distinction before despite this claim. Also, he makes it sound like he's now very opposed to something he previously suggested he was for. Convenient switch now that consensus has come out that town doesn't want suitclaims.
I fail to see the argument here. Why does the lack of few/en masse distinction beforehand matter? And I will concede that his original post (post #5 to you) is ambiguous to determine why he's against suit claims, but he did mention it in the end. He never switched.
And btw, I've never chosen to <no kill> whenever I was mafia, as I failed to see the logic in that. There could be a few reasons I suppose, but I'm not experienced enough in this game to give a full explanation.
Author
Topic: Mafia IX: Major Arcana Mafia (CONGRATULATIONS VOLTGLOSS, aka DEATH) (Read 165703 times)