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[Voltgloss]

what on earth happened to "there's a scum among ftl, C_F, robz" from back when?

I don't even remember who raised that theory or what was its basis.  But the comment got me thinking... thinking about the end of Day 2, and sparky's lynch, and the identity of his (probably last) remaining Mafioso confederate.

This is the votecount immediately after sparky's "confession" post from Day 2 (before anyone else changed their votes or posted further):

Vote Count 2.11


Robz888 (3): Captain_Frisk, ftl, angrybirds
sparky5856 (5): Eevee, Grujah, Axxle, Galzria, Morgrim7 {L-2}
Galzria (4): yuma, sparky5856, Voltgloss, Robz888

not voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is Sept. 3 @ 5 p.m. 3 hours remain.

After this, the following things happen in rapid succession, in the last couple of hours before the lynch deadline:

- abirds changes his vote from Robz to Galz
- Galz points out sparky's last post was a confession
- Robz agrees, changes his vote from Galz to sparky
- I agree, changing my vote from Galz to sparky, hammering

We also now know that there is at least one still-living Mafioso, who was allied with sparky and Insom.

Up until sparky basically committed seppuku with the confession post, it was not at all clear he was going to be lynched.  The largest wagon was on him, sure, but multiple players had said publicly they didn't like it, with most of the town (7 of us) split between the Robz and Galz wagons.  From this I conclude that it is unlikely the last Mafioso was on sparky's wagon at the time of the confession post.  What incentive would he have to bus?  His colleague's lynch was by no means a certainty, the deadline was fast approaching, and with multiple scumfactions around he gets no "town cred" by being on a successful scum-lynching wagon.

And then sparky imploded, and Robz and I put the nails in his coffin in response.  I know I'm not Mafia (or WW or SK for that matter), and I rather doubt Robz is Mafia because there was so little time left to go before the deadline - if he were Mafia, all he had to do to very likely save his partner's life was to keep quiet.

That leaves three living people who weren't on the sparky wagon at Day 2's end:  Captain_Frisk, ftl, and angrybirds.  I strongly suspect we will find Mafia among those three.

And now that we know that whoever is the likely-last Mafioso was on a scumteam with Insom and sparky, I think it's time to reread Days 1 and 2 with this information in hand, particularly with respect to CF, ftl, and abirds. 

[angrybirds]

had a longer post but comp crashed and lost it i was on insomniac wagon, ftl was as well I think. As for sparky I didn't notice the scumslip at all

[Axxle]

I rather doubt Robz is Mafia because there was so little time left to go before the deadline

Maybe, but I'm not so sure.  He may have been trying for some last minute towncred.  I just know I'm not letting you or Robz off the hook just yet.

You're post is good in general, I'm also pretty sure mafia isn't bussing here.  But I'm also concerned a bit on how tunneling toward mafia this seems.  I'm going to be looking for mafia connections between ftl, robz, angrybirds, and you as mafia.  Also at you as WW.

Solely from your post though it seems like angrybirds might be the primary suspect for mafia.  I'll definitely have to reread though.

[Voltgloss]

had a longer post but comp crashed and lost it i was on insomniac wagon, ftl was as well I think.

Yes, you both were.  Along with sparky. 

Unlike bussing sparky Day 2, "bussing" Insom late in Day 1 makes more sense as a Mafia move.  By that time the lynchwagon was rolling on a collision course with ehunt, and Insom - having claimed Doctor - was a likely nightkill target by competing scum.  So sparky (and maybe his teammate) wasn't actually CONTRIBUTING to Insom's death, and so his/their vote(s) were risk-free and would pay towncred dividends if Insom was nightkilled, thus flipping scum (as he did).

Will reread the order and timing of Day 1 votes re: Insom/ehunt.  There may be some further clues there.

But I'm also concerned a bit on how tunneling toward mafia this seems.  I'm going to be looking for mafia connections between ftl, robz, angrybirds, and you as mafia.  Also at you as WW.

Fair enough.  The reason I'm focused on Mafia right now is that we have new information available about the last Mafioso; we know he was a partner with Insom and sparky.  And now we have sparky's behavior throughout Day 2 to analyze through the lens of his flip. 

At present, I suspect we have 1 each of Mafia, WW*, and SK left.  Our goal today is to lynch one of them.  I think, because we have the most information about the last Mafioso today, we have the best chance at finding the last Mafioso today.  So that's where I'm scrutinizing now.

Also, I think it's premature to strike CF from the suspicion list.  It's possible he's a backup doctor but far from proven.  I especially don't like how he didn't reveal his Night 1 protection choice at the same time as his Night 2 choice, despite having been asked for both.  If CF were a real (backup) doctor, why wouldn't he have revealed both night protection choices together?  What, did he need to quickly look back to the end of Day 1 and pick someone who might make sense as a doctor target choice?  Feels eerily similar to Insom's claiming "doctor" Day 1 without simultaneously claiming his actual card.  Doling out information piecemeal could be because it's being manufactured.

* I know ftl posited 2 WWs remaining.  That would be 7 scum out of a town of 16.  Almost half?  That doesn't feel balanced to me, especially when we know that of the "9" town, at least 2 were VT and 2 were one-shots.  I think 6 scum out of 16 players is the more likely allocation.

[Axxle]

* I know ftl posited 2 WWs remaining.  That would be 7 scum out of a town of 16.  Almost half?  That doesn't feel balanced to me, especially when we know that of the "9" town, at least 2 were VT and 2 were one-shots.  I think 6 scum out of 16 players is the more likely allocation.

You can't think of it as town v. everyone else.  It's town v. mafia v. WW v. SK.

[Axxle]

Also, I think it's premature to strike CF from the suspicion list.  It's possible he's a backup doctor but far from proven.

I'm willing to give it one more day.

[Morgrim7]

I think one of C_F, ftl, and Angrybirds should be our lynch targets. I would support any of these three. It is odd, all three had votes on Robz. Can we assume Robz to be town?
Out of the three targets, I would rank them like this from scummiest to least: ftl, Abirds, C_F. So for now, Vote: ftl. Will be gone until nightfall at my place, busy day today.

[angrybirds]

So voltgloss is suspecting ftl, frisk and myself for being mafia.

the reason for this suspicion is that we werent on the sparky wagon at the time of confession post. but he does not point out that neither was Voltgloss. at the time of sparky's confession, volt's vote was on Galz. Galz then pointed out the confession and Robz and voltgloss jump onto it and lynch scum.  is it possible that voltgloss was the final buss vote for his own partner? it seems as plausible as ftl, myself or frisk being sparky's partner. i realize that the deadline was in 2 hours, but that was a pretty quick hammer for someone who was obviously going to be lynched by deadline. he didnt even offer a "does anyone have anything else left to say before I hammer" post. Voltgloss seemed to be extremely worried that another player would hammer sparky instead resulting in voltgloss becoming one of us that didn't vote that he is now suspicious of.

Two more things that volt fails to point out: 1 that I voted sparky before Galz showed his statement as a scumtell. I didn't see it as a scumtell at that time and was not on again until after day2 was done. Voltgloss had the advantage of being online and seeing Galz' interpretation and being there for the opportunity for the hammer I wasnt.

Second, I highly doubt that mafia sparky would put frisk to L-1 if he was his partner, especially with morgram in the game.

one more point: voltgloss feels that voting for insomniac day 1 is not enough evidence against being partners with sparky and insomniac. instead he implies that scum would be on that wagon early day1 to establish town cred. ftl and myself were on that wagon. but so was voltgloss.

vote: voltgloss for not telling the whole story and trying to lead town in potentially the wrong direciton

[Voltgloss]

I don't mind being suspected, but I do mind the facts being misrepresented. 

the reason for this suspicion is that we werent on the sparky wagon at the time of confession post. but he does not point out that neither was Voltgloss. at the time of sparky's confession, volt's vote was on Galz. Galz then pointed out the confession and Robz and voltgloss jump onto it and lynch scum.

My post lays out the votecount as of the confession post and then states what changed afterwards:  abirds moved his vote to Galz, Galz pointed out the confession, Robz and I agreed and moved our votes to abirds.  abirds saying I didn't "point [this] out" is simply wrong.

Two more things that volt fails to point out: 1 that I voted sparky before Galz showed his statement as a scumtell. I didn't see it as a scumtell at that time and was not on again until after day2 was done. Voltgloss had the advantage of being online and seeing Galz' interpretation and being there for the opportunity for the hammer I wasnt.

1.  You have never voted sparky.  At all.  The entire game.
2.  I did not "fail[] to point out" that you changed your vote to Galz before Galz called out sparky's statement as a confession.  I made that perfectly clear in describing the events that occurred, in the order they occurred.

Second, I highly doubt that mafia sparky would put frisk to L-1 if he was his partner, especially with morgram in the game.

This sounds like sparky put CF to L-1 and left his vote there for someone to hammer.  In fact, sparky put CF to L-1 and then unvoted 12 minutes later.  Tell the whole story, abirds.

one more point: voltgloss feels that voting for insomniac day 1 is not enough evidence against being partners with sparky and insomniac. instead he implies that scum would be on that wagon early day1 to establish town cred. ftl and myself were on that wagon. but so was voltgloss.

Notice my post refers to bussing Insom late in Day 1.  As in, after Insom's doctor claim.  "By [which] time the lynchwagon was rolling on a collision course with ehunt."  My point is that Insom's partners could comfortably leave their votes on Insom while the rest of the town lynched ehunt, knowing that if Insom was nightkilled (which was likely) they would look good the following day - and also knowing that their votes weren't actually causing the lynch of their teammate.  Was my vote on Insom then?  No, it was with the bulk of the town on ehunt.  Whose votes were on Insom then?  His scummate sparky; and abirds and ftl.

vote: voltgloss for not telling the whole story and trying to lead town in potentially the wrong direciton

The person "not telling the whole story" isn't me.  It's you.

[Voltgloss]

Addendum: 

Notice my post refers to bussing Insom late in Day 1.  As in, after Insom's doctor claim.  "By [which] time the lynchwagon was rolling on a collision course with ehunt."  My point is that Insom's partners could comfortably leave their votes on Insom while the rest of the town lynched ehunt, knowing that if Insom was nightkilled (which was likely) they would look good the following day - and also knowing that their votes weren't actually causing the lynch of their teammate.  Was my vote on Insom then?  No, it was with the bulk of the town on ehunt.  Whose votes were on Insom then?  His scummate sparky; and abirds and ftl.

On reread I see abirds also changed his vote from Insom to shraeye before the very end of the day.  So this argument holds most strongly for ftl, not abirds. 

[Robz888]

It looks to me Voltgloss has the right of it in his argument with Abirds. My own cursory analysis shows that Abirds never voted for Sparky (contrary to what he said). He did vote for Insomniac on Day 1, and Insomniac voted for him at about the same time. This is actually the strongest evidence that Abirds is not part of the same scumteam as Insomniac and Sparky, because Insomniac is the most purely retaliatory voter in Forum Games. So I see him voting for Abirds in response as something he would do to somebody not aligned with him.

Now, that's not such a strong piece of evidence, but it's something. However, Sparky did vote for Insomniac at some point, so we know these mafia people are doing at least a bit of voting for each other.

On the other hand, ftl never voted for Insomniac or sparky as far as I can tell, nor did either of them vote for him.

As an aside, I will say that I am almost certain Voltgloss is town. He's one of the players I feel more adept at reading, compared to others (I correctly deduced he was scum very early in MIII, and late in BMMMI).

[Captain_Frisk]

Back from travelling - still on vacation though - so posting to be odd.  I need to do a re-read. 

As for Volt and not answering my protection questions to his satisfaction - I was phone posting and did not clearly read the request for both days.  I do agree that there's no way to validate my claim, but I don't know what to do about that.

[Morgrim7]

So sorry I've been lurking. Busy busy busy busy....yeah. Anyway, no new reads, abirds became slightly scummier after volt's rebuttal.

[angrybirds]

that is what i get for trying to rush a post before class, i apologize for mistakes, lets see if we can clear the air

(1) Yes, I never voted for sparky, I meant to say that I had voted for Galz. It was a simple mistake and one that you just made as well. I confused sparky/Galz while you confused me and sparky, so this is a mute point

Robz and I agreed and moved our votes to abirds.

(2) all i was trying to say about your vote not being on sparky at the time of Galz's scumslip detection was that you weren't on the wagon either at the time of the detection. You do give a timeline of the events, but you do not bring specific attention to it in the way that you brought attention to frisk, ftl and myself.

Up until sparky basically committed seppuku with the confession post, it was not at all clear he was going to be lynched.  The largest wagon was on him, sure, but multiple players had said publicly they didn't like it, with most of the town (7 of us) split between the Robz and Galz wagons.  From this I conclude that it is unlikely the last Mafioso was on sparky's wagon at the time of the confession post.  What incentive would he have to bus?  His colleague's lynch was by no means a certainty, the deadline was fast approaching, and with multiple scumfactions around he gets no "town cred" by being on a successful scum-lynching wagon.

From this I took that it is very easy to include you with us three, but you don't. Is it because you "know" you aren't mafia? Well I don't know you aren't mafia, so I am including you with us.


(3) these quotations seem to be in disagreement

My point is that Insom's partners could comfortably leave their votes on Insom while the rest of the town lynched ehunt, knowing that if Insom was nightkilled (which was likely) they would look good the following day - and also knowing that their votes weren't actually causing the lynch of their teammate.  Was my vote on Insom then?  No, it was with the bulk of the town on ehunt.  Whose votes were on Insom then?  His scummate sparky; and abirds and ftl.

On reread I see abirds also changed his vote from Insom to shraeye before the very end of the day.  So this argument holds most strongly for ftl, not abirds.

according to the first a scum angrybirds would have been smart to leave his vote on insomniac to the end of day, but I didn't as you point out in the second quote; i changed my vote to shraeye who was a townie, but was acting scummy at day end. But the second quote says that changing my vote from insomniac to shraeye invalidates an argument that I am town

(4) the vote on C-frisk by sparky was removed only because of some immediate, major pressure from yuma. w/o his criticism I could see sparky leaving that vote there just hoping that morgrim would come along and hammer and then we would all blame morgrim and forget sparky

[Voltgloss]

(3) these quotations seem to be in disagreement

My point is that Insom's partners could comfortably leave their votes on Insom while the rest of the town lynched ehunt, knowing that if Insom was nightkilled (which was likely) they would look good the following day - and also knowing that their votes weren't actually causing the lynch of their teammate.  Was my vote on Insom then?  No, it was with the bulk of the town on ehunt.  Whose votes were on Insom then?  His scummate sparky; and abirds and ftl.

On reread I see abirds also changed his vote from Insom to shraeye before the very end of the day.  So this argument holds most strongly for ftl, not abirds.

according to the first a scum angrybirds would have been smart to leave his vote on insomniac to the end of day, but I didn't as you point out in the second quote; i changed my vote to shraeye who was a townie, but was acting scummy at day end. But the second quote says that changing my vote from insomniac to shraeye invalidates an argument that I am town

No, the second quote is saying that on reread, I see you changed your vote from Insomniac to shraeye before day's end, which means that MY argument - that sparky's partner, like sparky himself, may likely have tried to bus Insomniac late Day 1 - applies more strongly to ftl than it does to you. 

[Voltgloss]

Where is Galz?  I recall him saying he's been busy in RL, but he hasn't posted at all since Day 3 started despite having at least SOME time to post in the forum (see CE-II).  cayvie/jo, could we have a prod please?  Thanks.

Also folks, note that the deadline is next Friday - a week from today.  We didn't get the standard 2 weeks; we got only 10 days.  Not sure if that was by design or by accident, but if by design we shouldn't be resting on our laurels.

abirds and CF have both responded regarding my suspicions.  ftl has not.  Whatever the merits of abirds' and CF's arguments, they certainly carry more weight than the total LACK of an argument.  Plus, as my discussion with abirds made clear, ftl's end-of-Day-1 vote best matches sparky's "bus the probably-NK'd-teammate at no actual cost" vote.  Vote: ftl.

[Voltgloss]

On the other hand, ftl never voted for Insomniac or sparky as far as I can tell, nor did either of them vote for him.

Robz, see #591.  ftl votes Insomniac (before either Day 1 Doctor claim) and leaves his vote there for the rest of the day.

[jotheonah]

Galz has expressed repeatedly that the DNC is keeping him super busy and he hasn't been able to participate much in his various games. I'll prod him, but I'm not worried.

[Galzria]

Yeah, sorry. I'm going to get a major post in each game by the time I get home tonight. I've been following along/reading them all however, so I'm not behind content wise. This well has just been ridiculous (so much busier than last!)

[Galzria]

Well = Week

[Axxle]

I have no plans for tomorrow, so I'll reread and give my opinion on who's next to go.

[Galzria]

Home again. So exhausted. That post will have to wait until I wake up in the morning. Too much traveling, too much beer (well, maybe not - but to much to post anything truly reasonable). But home nonetheless, so this weekend will see me regaining my footing in these games.

[angrybirds]

i thought for sure there would be new content to read and respond to but there is nothing going on here. Where is everyone Did scum kill off all our big talkers?
looks like there are 2 votes on ftl with still no response

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 3.1

ftl (2): Morgrim7, Voltgloss
Voltgloss (1): angrybirds

not voting (5): Captain_Frisk, ftl, Axxle, Galzria, Robz888

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Deadline is Sept. 14 @ 2 p.m.

[Galzria]

Well, unfortunately not a whole heck of a lot has occurred since the start of D3. I guess I should say:

Eevee! See how much that role suuuuuuucks!?!

So, 3 deaths. 1 WW flavor, 1 Mafia flavor, 1 ... ? flavor.

Are we missing a kill, or is the SK flavor what caused Yuma to have a heart attack? Doesn't seem natural to me. If Yuma was killed by a 1-shot town role, should that player claim?

I actually think that the catch on Sparky was pretty damning, so I cannot in good faith clear anybody that joined the wagon after it was pointed out. Put yourself in the shoes of a Sparky scumbuddy there - are you going to sit back and argue that scumslip, with the deadline looming, and a decent chance after it was called out that Sparky would be the lynch (thus revealing his alignment, and putting anybody who defended him in real hot water)? Would you not say anything and hope that the deadline slips by with no lynch (not likely to happen as we almost always lynch at deadline)? Or would you go "Oh shit, that sucks - well, here's my chance to gain some town cred? -- BUS!"?

Now, some people weren't online at that time. Maybe his partner(s) weren't online at all. I doubt that at the time of the reveal his partner was *already* voting him - not when my wagon was sitting there as a possible alternative. Would scumbuddies both have been on MY wagon together (Sparky//???)? It's not unheard of. In M-II Robz and I voted together on every lynch (although in retrospect we were SOOOO obvscum). On my wagon before they switched:

Yuma, Volt, Robz, ABirds.

Volt and Robz switched. Yuma did not appear to be around (and is town), and ABirds wasn't around/wouldn't have switched most likely? (Did I get that correct?)

From a Sparky partner perspective, I wouldn't have wanted to be left on the same wagon as Sparky when Sparky flipped. In my mind, that somewhat clears ABirds, who I think could've switched if he wanted to (I don't entirely buy that he wasn't around - or that he wouldn't have checked in before the deadline). Again, given my belief that a Sparky partner was most likely to bus at that point, I think Robz/Volt are my biggest suspects on that count.

Now, Frisk/ftl/Morgrim remain undiscussed. Morgrim is cleared from being the last Mafia to me because he was already on Sparky before the case was concrete.

This leaves Frisk/ftl/Volt/Robz as the last Mafiosi - Frisk/ftl fit more closely to me as an O partner based on O's meta-game scum play strategy. He (O) played M-IV and M-V in a "Quiet/Loud" team fashion - by which I mean each member of the Scum team filled a different role - from very vociferous to very placid.

Now, Frisk has claimed already, and he's effectively claimed Doctor - why didn't he die last night? Well, there are two thoughts:

He's scum, and wasn't going to target himself - Nor was the other team going to target him knowing how far they (the combined scum) are behind town

or

He's town, and neither scum team (nor the SK?) targeted him because they know how far they (the combined scum) are behind town and were afraid of taking out another scum.

Does the second option *really* seem all that viable? Am I missing something?

Anyway, for Mafiosi, I have to suspect Volt/Robz
For WW I have to suspect ftl/Frisk
For SK I have to suspect almost anybody, since SK can happily survive almost anywhere (ie - they don't have to worry about avoiding being tied to other scum directly).

This post went from being streamlined thought to free flowing thought, so I apologize if it got a bit messy in the middle.