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[Eevee]

The point is you're saying basically: "I was really suspicious...town should have wanted to kill me.  O defended me, theorel accused me therefore: O is town"  Doesn't that seem a little contradictory to you?

The FoS on you was clearly lighter than the town read on O. Some people thought I was suspicious, so for scum O it would have been very easy to just join them and push the wagon to a lynch. It would have been the "normal" thing to do, behavior that doesn't raise questions. Instead he chose to defend me when no one else didn't, I think it's more likely he is town with a good read than scum trying to clear himself through me. Also a thing to note: we all know town O isn't scared of taking a read and sticking with it. I got the impression that's what he did with me. Now, could scum O be devious enough to do it just to get me say this? Maybe, I certainly am gullible enough to do it. But am I the correct target still, am I credible enough? I don't know, but going too far down that road feels like overthinking a simple thing. In the end, O wanted to save my life when he didn't really need to at all, and I'm town. For that, O reads towny to me.

[Captain_Frisk]

Bump?  I've gone back over the last few pages a few times now - with my thoughts on everyone:

Thoughts (in order of player names in most recent vote count)

Captain_Frisk - hi

Insomniac - Every time I read through his posts - I am shocked at his lack of contribution to this game.  Every post is a one liner.

Eevee - I'm getting a mostly town read here.  I think he might be on to something with yuma - who we all know is super smooth scum.

Robz888 - I'd like to see more out of him day 2 to really form an opinion.  I don't like his assumption that insomniac is town.  Reading his most recent post - I get a scum vibe.  I can't believe that both he AND insomniac are both scum - but I also can't believe that scum managed to drive 3 completely separate town wagons yesterday.

O - I find myself agreeing with O.  I've never survived long in a normal game in which O and I were both town (i was night killed night 1 in M3, serial killer vs. scum in M4, he was scum in M5, he modded M6, and he didn't play M7) (The crazy games are all a blur and frankly I'm not even sure if O was in any of them), so I don't know have a sense of whether I should trust this or be suspicious.  His confrontational style angers me - and while I don't think that he's clear just because he didn't like lekkit lunches, he isn't near the top of my list of folks to lynch.

yuma - Rereading some of yuma - I didn't like some of his anti voltgloss comments early on (he votes for VG in #556) since we now know VG to be town - but he really appeared to be actively trying to figure out what was going on.  I don't agree with his "townreads" on RobZ / Insomniac in #899.

theorel - I don't like his comments that yuma and I forced a lynch of lekkit by refusing to evaluate RobZ v. Insomniac.  5 more people joined us - so they are equally to blame - and certainly some folks on one wagon or the other could have joined the other as an alternative to lynching Lekkit.  His minor quarrels with O are interesting, but I don't have a strong feeling one way or another here.

ehunt - I was voting him earlier today - but I calmed down after his ridiculous clearing of O.  It's too obvious stupid to be scum - and I apologize for getting worked up about it.

Galzria - after re-reading everyone - I can't believe that he'd legit vote for O over insomniac and / or RobZ.    I can't believe that they are both town.  I mean - I don't like O in all mafia games - but right now I have to assume that one of Insomniac / RobZ is scum - which puts a random lynch on one of them @ 50%.  My gut feeling on O is that his odds of being scum are closer to the natural 3/8.   I know that Yuma and I aren't a scumteam, so his reads of CF + Yuma + X are flat out wrong.  Is he trying to cover for RobZ / Insomniac?  It's funny - because the "analysis" that led him to suspect yuma and I was that we didn't get on either wagon.  So whats the verdict galz - after making us all go through the survey - what is your conclusion?  In his post he misrepresents my position on both insomniac and RobZ by saying I am unwilling to lynch them.

What I said:

I think that if it was a deadline, I'd be tempted to lynch either, and I wish the vig had shot one of them to get past this situation. 

How he phrased it:

As for Frisk, his thoughts on Insomniac:

Hmm, mirrored Yuma: Didn't like it then, don't like it now.

SNIP

But how about Robz? From Volt's list yesterday, living people who wanted him lynched:

SNIP

So who does that leave, and what do they think today?:

Frisk and Yuma - See above quotes. Didn't like his lynch then, don't like the idea now.

SNIP

So! People alive not willing to lynch Robz:

Yuma, Frisk, Robz...

My conclusions:

1. This game should be a case study to explain why no lynch day 1 is a terrible idea.
2. I'm not really liking Galz after this read through, but I"m not sure I can put him over RobZ / Insomniac - just based on probability.

If I had to go with desired lynch chart it would be: (highest desire -> lowest desire - white space to separate tiers)

Insomniac - I'd like to see more content from him.  Give us more than 1 sentence at a time.
RobZ - he's up here with insomniac because I don't have a strong gut feeling against either individually - but as a pair - I can't believe that they were both town + the Lekkit lynch.

Galz - probably my #1 true scrumread
yuma - this is more of an "anti" scumread.  His play looks fine - which makes me think excellent scum - rather than obvious town.

O - grrrr
theorel - down here in the neutral area
eeVee - his krytonite PPS isn't in this game - so hopefully he won't get snookered into losing the game for us later.

eHunt - O IS NOT CLEAR!

Captain_Frisk - yeah - well we all know that lynching yourself is anti town.

Sorry for the book.  If I"m going to take the time to reread everyone - I might as well make it count!

[Insomniac]

@CF, are you sure you're rereading the same game as me? Last time I checked I've been posting far more than one liners recently, as a matter of fact in case you didn't guess I even started to suspect one of Galz O because of the exchange that went on between them recently.

So I'm gonna give you a largeish post here and I'm leading to something so try and stay with me.

I read MVII up to one post in MVII. The post where Galz tried to get people to look off the wagon, because it was soooo remniscent of MII in which he and robz tried to get people to look off the wagon for mafia because well hey mafia wouldn't be stupid enough to vote together, and it worked, they got every single non morgrim voter lynched, at that point I immediately pm'd Volt that galz was scum for reasons X,Y, and Z and primarily the reason above. Now that said had I continued to follow MVII I would have assumed he was actually town after watching how crazy timchen got about lynching Galz.

So you might be asking yourself where I'm going with this and I'll put it quite simply for you. Leading the town to lynch explicitly in one area is anti-town, I don't care if you're town or not it is EXPLICITLY anti-town, what did you just do in your most recent post? Encouraged people to only lynch within the Robz-Insomniac pairing.

A bit more analysis for you though. Lets shoot over to the last day in M2. Galzria said anytime he talked about me or robz that we were both pretty damn scummy. And if it came to it he would have full on bussed Robz if it came to it. But what am I getting at here you ask? Note that in M2 Galzria always said that he thought I was more scummy than Robz, note what you've done here, claimed to suspect Robz yet suspected me more. You look a damn hell of a lot like M2 Galzria.

Enough so that I am willing to conclude that in this town, my most likely scum pairing is Robz/CF. I don't yet know who I think to be with the pair of you but I definitely suspect you two of being on the same scum team.

[ehunt]

Lots to say and a few pages behind - I am going to begin by defending my behavior early this game-day. I also need to address eevee's case against yuma, but I will do that in a separate post. The tl;dr is that I found it really town when yuma coached me away from phone-posting, but maybe I am giving yuma too much credit there. Is there anything else that anyone would like me to address?
I just bought dark ages, so no guarantee I'll be at the computer at any given time.

So, the way I play this game is, I make a bunch of narratives. When I see behavior that's consistent with a narrative, it strengthens the narrative; when I see behavior that contradicts it, I try to find a new narrative.

For example: one narrative that I was going with was "O stopped Lekkit's lynch at the last minute by calling him obviously town and FOSing everyone who disagreed. In the process he hurt town by causing a no-lynch. This is well-explained by O protecting a scumbuddy." This narrative is shot to pieces when Lekkit flips town.

Another narrative is "timchen is lurking because he is mafia." This narrative is also proven false, but when this narrative crumbles, not a lot crumbles with it (which is why lurking is so bad when you are town - you need a web of arguments so that when you are mislynched a lot of misinformation dies with you).

Now, once Lekkit flips town, my narrative is something like this "O didn't want a no-lynch, he just thought Lekkit was town." Yes, he could have been self-sacrificing mafia deliberately saving a townie to earn credibility, but I find it unlikely - he could have done the same thing by saying "I think lekkit is town" without adding all the fos at everyone voting for lekkit. In doing so he'd draw a lot less attention to himself. Now we enter WIFOM territory, but I tend to resolve WIFOM debates with the "obvious play is obvious" rule.

I also see another narrative that another townie might come up with, namely, "one of insomniac and robz is scum, and ehunt is their scumbuddy, so ehunt deliberately twisted the day two wagon into lekkit in order to protect his scumbuddy." Indeed O more or less said this at some point on day two. I want to do as much as I can to break this narrative, so I start the day loudly proclaiming my willingness to vote Insom or Robz, and, moreover, proclaiming that I will choose between them based on what my town-reads (O and theorel) want me to do (so that I can't be accused of derailing one of them into the other). This is the best way I can really break that narrative (by introducing a factor I can't control into my vote). However, it was based on two assumptions, both of which seem to be erroneous:
1. I thought everyone else ITT agreed that at least one of Insom and Robz are scum.
2. I thought everyone else ITT more or less trusted O and theorel.

The second assumption in fact isn't agreed upon by, well, anyone else. In particular, those two folks are in dispute with each other. So I'm a little bit on Mars with my narrative of this game. Clearly I need to re-read.

[Captain_Frisk]

@CF, are you sure you're rereading the same game as me? Last time I checked I've been posting far more than one liners recently, as a matter of fact in case you didn't guess I even started to suspect one of Galz O because of the exchange that went on between them recently.

I think we might be reading different games.  Here's your posting history for this day:

#966 - one line
#961 - 4 single line questions - with no content from you.
#956 - 4 sentences
#945 - 1 sentence - it might cross lines for some people
#944 - A whopper - 4 sentences
#942 - 1 sentence
#940 - 7 words
#936 - a 2 sentence semi VT roleclaim - on one line
#934 - 3 sentences - on one line.  0 information.
#932 - 2 sentences - one stating VLA, the other reaffirming your belief in RobZ
#889 - 2 sentences - voting RobZ

Hey - thats it for Day 2

As for "guiding" town to look in a specific location - lets take a hypothetical - lets say it was mod confirmed that there was at least 1 scum in a group of 2 people.  Unless you were really sure that someone else had a > 50% chance of being scum - of course you're going to look at those 2 people.

You yourself have said that you're 95% sure that RobZ is scum.  You are trying to guide town to a SINGLE target.  That's what voting is!

Did you read the rest of my post - or did you just get angry at being called out on your one liners?  I looked AT EVERYONE - I've named Galz as my biggest scumread - but I can't justify voting for him because I find it unlikely that both you and RobZ are town.  You even agree with me - since you think RobZ is scum.

[ehunt]

Quite simple: I won't vote for anybody except Robz or Insomniac today. Unless there's a magic cop-claim on scum (unlikely as we know we have Vig + Tracker at this point, and likely IC somewhere). I still can't believe you guys went and lynched Lekkit anyway... Terrible town play.

One post after saying this, Galzria votes for me because I was overly strong in my assertion that I thought theorel and O were town.

[Insomniac]

@CF, are you sure you're rereading the same game as me? Last time I checked I've been posting far more than one liners recently, as a matter of fact in case you didn't guess I even started to suspect one of Galz O because of the exchange that went on between them recently.

I think we might be reading different games.  Here's your posting history for this day:

#966 - one line
#961 - 4 single line questions - with no content from you.
#956 - 4 sentences
#945 - 1 sentence - it might cross lines for some people
#944 - A whopper - 4 sentences
#942 - 1 sentence
#940 - 7 words
#936 - a 2 sentence semi VT roleclaim - on one line
#934 - 3 sentences - on one line.  0 information.
#932 - 2 sentences - one stating VLA, the other reaffirming your belief in RobZ
#889 - 2 sentences - voting RobZ

Hey - thats it for Day 2

As for "guiding" town to look in a specific location - lets take a hypothetical - lets say it was mod confirmed that there was at least 1 scum in a group of 2 people.  Unless you were really sure that someone else had a > 50% chance of being scum - of course you're going to look at those 2 people.

You yourself have said that you're 95% sure that RobZ is scum.  You are trying to guide town to a SINGLE target.  That's what voting is!

Did you read the rest of my post - or did you just get angry at being called out on your one liners?  I looked AT EVERYONE - I've named Galz as my biggest scumread - but I can't justify voting for him because I find it unlikely that both you and RobZ are town.  You even agree with me - since you think RobZ is scum.

No I definetly am reading this game but I don't see how my contribution on this game day is less than yours, but that part was neither here nor there. I did indeed read your whole post. The part I was responding to is your scum list at the bottom leading with me and Robz. I do sure agree Robz is scum, and I have indeed said I'm 95% sure he is scum. But voting and accusing one person is much different than guiding to a subset of people. Scum can safely guide to a subset of people that includes there scumbuddy. Voting for ONE person or accusing people of being scumbuddies doesn't influence people to look in that group it states my belief. Your post is in multiple place guiding people to only vote for me or robz.

SNIP
2. I'm not really liking Galz after this read through, but I"m not sure I can put him over RobZ / Insomniac - just based on probability.

If I had to go with desired lynch chart it would be: (highest desire -> lowest desire - white space to separate tiers)

Insomniac - I'd like to see more content from him.  Give us more than 1 sentence at a time.
RobZ - he's up here with insomniac because I don't have a strong gut feeling against either individually - but as a pair - I can't believe that they were both town + the Lekkit lynch.

Galz - probably my #1 true scrumread
SNIP

[Captain_Frisk]

No I definetly am reading this game but I don't see how my contribution on this game day is less than yours, but that part was neither here nor there.

What have you done today other than say RobZ is scum, and then now (after being called out) accused me of being his scum buddy?

[Robz888]

1. I thought everyone else ITT agreed that at least one of Insom and Robz are scum.
2. I thought everyone else ITT more or less trusted O and theorel.

The second assumption in fact isn't agreed upon by, well, anyone else. In particular, those two folks are in dispute with each other. So I'm a little bit on Mars with my narrative of this game. Clearly I need to re-read.

I had some trouble following the long post you made before these two points, but as for the two points, I certainly don't agree with either of them.

For 1, I don't think Insomniac is scum, and I know I am not scum.
For 2, I mostly trust theorel I guess, but it wouldn't shock me if he flipped scum and is just playing well. I have no specific reason to trust O.

[Robz888]

No I definetly am reading this game but I don't see how my contribution on this game day is less than yours, but that part was neither here nor there.

What have you done today other than say RobZ is scum, and then now (after being called out) accused me of being his scum buddy?

If Insomniac was scum, his scum partners would be attacking me right now. Insomniac is the only one actively pushing my lynch, which makes me very confident he's not scum. Though he's wrong about me.

[Insomniac]

No I definetly am reading this game but I don't see how my contribution on this game day is less than yours, but that part was neither here nor there.

What have you done today other than say RobZ is scum, and then now (after being called out) accused me of being his scum buddy?

I'd ask you the same question, what have you done today before your big post?

[Insomniac]

CF Day 3 history
Post #849 - Little actual content, finger of suspicion you already had (IIOA)
Post #851 - 1 Liner
Post #876 - 3 Sentences (not even 4) Vote ehunt after previous vote and FoS
Post #926 - 1 Liner
Post #928 - Ok this one actually has content, alot is information and alot of it is reiterating things you had already said on previous days.
Post #939 - 1 Liner
Post #951 - Has length but is because your defending yourself
Post #953 - 1 Liner
Post #962 - Very little real content defending yourself from galzria
Post #964 - 1 Liner, no game relevance


I had 11 posts. You have 10, you have just as many 1 liners if not more AND I WAS VLA when the day started, whats your excuse?

[Captain_Frisk]

CF Day 3 history
Post #849 - Little actual content, finger of suspicion you already had (IIOA)
Post #851 - 1 Liner
Post #876 - 3 Sentences (not even 4) Vote ehunt after previous vote and FoS
Post #926 - 1 Liner
Post #928 - Ok this one actually has content, alot is information and alot of it is reiterating things you had already said on previous days.
Post #939 - 1 Liner
Post #951 - Has length but is because your defending yourself
Post #953 - 1 Liner
Post #962 - Very little real content defending yourself from galzria
Post #964 - 1 Liner, no game relevance


I had 11 posts. You have 10, you have just as many 1 liners if not more AND I WAS VLA when the day started, whats your excuse?

I have real life gamers in.  No posting until tomorrow night.

[Insomniac]

CF Day 3 history
Post #849 - Little actual content, finger of suspicion you already had (IIOA)
Post #851 - 1 Liner
Post #876 - 3 Sentences (not even 4) Vote ehunt after previous vote and FoS
Post #926 - 1 Liner
Post #928 - Ok this one actually has content, alot is information and alot of it is reiterating things you had already said on previous days.
Post #939 - 1 Liner
Post #951 - Has length but is because your defending yourself
Post #953 - 1 Liner
Post #962 - Very little real content defending yourself from galzria
Post #964 - 1 Liner, no game relevance


I had 11 posts. You have 10, you have just as many 1 liners if not more AND I WAS VLA when the day started, whats your excuse?

I have real life gamers in.  No posting until tomorrow night.

So you missed one day, I missed Thursday, Friday, Saturday, AND most of Sunday and you missing one day amounts to posting 1 less time than someone you accuse of lurking and not contributing? I'm not seeing it.

[yuma]

phone post. Soryy in advance.
I for one am struggling in this game Atm for the following reason and I want to put it out there so it can be addressed if others feel it to be necessary: we are composed of 3 mafia 2 power roles (one of which is vig) and 4 vt. As such when I read over the game there is a constant reminder that someone could be a pr. Thismakes me hesitant to start in one someone for fear of wagoning them to l1 and forcing them to claim all but guarenteeing a pr night kill. Is this a legitimet worry or am I psyching myself out here?

Also should we be wary of mafia trying to get as many of us to l1 as possible to force more claims out of us in an attempt to find pr? 

[Insomniac]

phone post. Soryy in advance.
I for one am struggling in this game Atm for the following reason and I want to put it out there so it can be addressed if others feel it to be necessary: we are composed of 3 mafia 2 power roles (one of which is vig) and 4 vt. As such when I read over the game there is a constant reminder that someone could be a pr. Thismakes me hesitant to start in one someone for fear of wagoning them to l1 and forcing them to claim all but guarenteeing a pr night kill. Is this a legitimet worry or am I psyching myself out here?

Also should we be wary of mafia trying to get as many of us to l1 as possible to force more claims out of us in an attempt to find pr?

It's a silly worry. All the PR's except IC are X-shot (I think) and 2/9 is such a low risk to worry about.

[Robz888]

phone post. Soryy in advance.
I for one am struggling in this game Atm for the following reason and I want to put it out there so it can be addressed if others feel it to be necessary: we are composed of 3 mafia 2 power roles (one of which is vig) and 4 vt. As such when I read over the game there is a constant reminder that someone could be a pr. Thismakes me hesitant to start in one someone for fear of wagoning them to l1 and forcing them to claim all but guarenteeing a pr night kill. Is this a legitimet worry or am I psyching myself out here?

Also should we be wary of mafia trying to get as many of us to l1 as possible to force more claims out of us in an attempt to find pr?

You're right that we don't want to send a lot of people to L-1, but it really can't be helped. And actually, it's not SUCH a huge problem. If we out the Vig, he can still take his second shot tonight before he dies.

[Robz888]

@Insomniac, it's unfortunate that you're convinced I'm scum, because you are the person I am most sure is scum, for the reason I stated previously.

Can I ask you to pretend for a minute that you don't suspect me? Let's say you knew I was town. Who would you then suspect?

[Robz888]

@Insomniac, it's unfortunate that you're convinced I'm scum, because you are the person I am most sure is NOT scum, for the reason I stated previously.

Can I ask you to pretend for a minute that you don't suspect me? Let's say you knew I was town. Who would you then suspect?

Oops! Fixed.

[Insomniac]

@Insomniac, it's unfortunate that you're convinced I'm scum, because you are the person I am most sure is NOT scum, for the reason I stated previously.

Can I ask you to pretend for a minute that you don't suspect me? Let's say you knew I was town. Who would you then suspect?

Oops! Fixed.

If I pretend your not scum its CF for the reasons I've been stating, accusing me of doing what he has done to a more successful extent, and for guiding the town to only lynch one of us.

Basically the reason I said you were a pair is because I've been running on the assumption that you were scum but CF being scum doesn't necessarily make you his scumbuddy IMO

[Insomniac]

Gonna go do one of my traditional digs on available info from past days

[Robz888]

@Insomniac, it's unfortunate that you're convinced I'm scum, because you are the person I am most sure is NOT scum, for the reason I stated previously.

Can I ask you to pretend for a minute that you don't suspect me? Let's say you knew I was town. Who would you then suspect?

Oops! Fixed.

If I pretend your not scum its CF for the reasons I've been stating, accusing me of doing what he has done to a more successful extent, and for guiding the town to only lynch one of us.

Basically the reason I said you were a pair is because I've been running on the assumption that you were scum but CF being scum doesn't necessarily make you his scumbuddy IMO

Okay, well I am realizing that Frisk has flown way, way, way under the radar, and hasn't really taken sides much of the time. There have to be at least some mafia doing this, for things to be so quiet and deadlocked and actually have No Lynch. So I will Vote: Captain_Frisk

The other person who really fits this pattern for me is Eevee, but I think Frisk voted for Eevee on Day 1, which makes them an all but impossible scum pair.

[Captain_Frisk]

But now if I vote either of you I am OMGUSing!

[Robz888]

Correction: Frisk voted Eevee in the middle of Day 2, not Day 1. He was the only vote on Eevee. This is significantly different than what I remembered, and probably means they could still be a pair. There were several other bigger wagons going at the time, and I don't think Frisk put Eevee in much danger. We were cruising to a Lekkit or Insomniac lynch then.

[O]

I'm seeing a Galz/Robz scumteam. They realized Robz was in hot water after last night so they're working together to redirect to someone else. Robz/Galz likely is buddying up to Insomniac because they want Insomniac to ease off on the pressure on Robz (it's Insomniac's continued insistence on Robz scum, while Robz fled the argument, that made me realize Insomniac is certainly the townier one of the two).

Vote: Robz as galz could always just be misguided townie, but if Galz is scum its very hard to see town robz.