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[yuma]

The case against Insomniac:

Galz:

In any case here, I find Insomniac's assumption that he'll live fairly scummy. As town, I sit and constantly refresh right before Dawn each new day, wondering if I'm going to be killed at night. I find his nonchalance about it very unusual, especially given his history (and it's extensive) of N1 deaths.

So I'm going to Vote: Insomniac. I find that response of his far more of a potential scum tell than anything in particular Eevee/Lekkit have done. Yuma still stands out to me as well, but I don't think it's worth pursuing now, as it's more a collection of small things rather than anything majorly scummy.

followed by 4 other votes that were completely contentless in cayvie, cfrisk, eevee, and theorel


Day 2:

Here volt seems to be defending Insomniac in an attempt to discredit eevee more

If Insomniac were mafia and wanted to kill the person who was most likely to push for his lynch Day 2, he would have targeted Galzria.

[yuma]

The case against Insomniac:

Galz:

In any case here, I find Insomniac's assumption that he'll live fairly scummy. As town, I sit and constantly refresh right before Dawn each new day, wondering if I'm going to be killed at night. I find his nonchalance about it very unusual, especially given his history (and it's extensive) of N1 deaths.

So I'm going to Vote: Insomniac. I find that response of his far more of a potential scum tell than anything in particular Eevee/Lekkit have done. Yuma still stands out to me as well, but I don't think it's worth pursuing now, as it's more a collection of small things rather than anything majorly scummy.

followed by 4 other votes that were completely contentless in cayvie, cfrisk, eevee, and theorel


Day 2:

Here volt seems to be defending Insomniac in an attempt to discredit eevee more

If Insomniac were mafia and wanted to kill the person who was most likely to push for his lynch Day 2, he would have targeted Galzria.

that post was premature... should be more coming...

[yuma]

Added to the post above.....

I don't buy Eevee's rationalization below, I don't think Eevee is scum, so I obviously don't agree with Insomniac's analysis and vote, but I don't think ins's vote on eevee is enough. first of all eevee never looked like he was going to be lynched. We were still very early in the day and was a few votes away.

First of all, sorry for not posting. I honestly didn't realize I went two full days without saying anything, almost scary.

At the time, I was wondering Insomniac's vote on me, but I thought since everyone found me scummy, maybe his reasons weren't as flimsy as I felt they were. However, what he did was claiming to have reread, saying I look super scummyyy without providing any reasons why he thought that, and joining my wagon when it very much looked like it was going to result in me getting lynched. I think that is pretty bad, as was his nolynch-vote (which I can believe to be a town mistake though).

However, Vote: Insomniac, maybe this time I'm on it early enough.

I don't understand rob here. It seems that he thinks insomniac is the most town, but also the most scummy? Robz perhaps is overthinking here... But that isn't the point, mostly I am not sure what it is that Robz found the most scummy about insomniac that made him vote him over anyone else.... Frankly that seems to be the case w/ a lot of insomniac votes. People vote for him, saying they don't have a good feeling about him, but don't say why.

So this puts Insomniac, Galzria, and to a lesser extent O and Eevee under suspicion (I'm just sheeping Theorel's work here). Now, Insomniac is the one person I'm getting a town-read from, but I definitely have an Insomniac-is-town bias that I need to deal with (I also have an Eevee-is-mafia bias). So I do think he comes off looking the worst here. And hey, maybe I didn't suspect him because he's scum doing the best job of fooling me. Sort of in line with the "we never lynch scum, so lynch someone you would never want to lynch" theory.

Post 667 Voltgloss diverts !again! from Galz this time, before he was all over Eevee, onto the insomniac bus. Not voting yet, but applying pressure. However, it should be said that he at least is using quotes and "evidence" to provide substance to his suspicion.

I don't like insomniac's vote on Eevee. It may be another case of insomniac acting a bit weird under pressure.

Overall, I don't think insomniac is scum. I have gotten a town read on him up through now. Like I said, his vote on Eevee I don't like, but I don't necessarily blame him for it.

I think the wagon on him is likely town driven as well, but I do want to point out that voltgloss is providing heavy pressure to him, but staying far away from voting. He seems to be driving this wagon in that direction, but seems to be hoping to stay off it. Voltgloss is jumping from person to person in accusation (eevee, galz and now insomniac).

[Robz888]

This is a response to Yuma, who I think raises good points. I can understand not loving an Insomniac lynch, especially if you had a town read on him. I did too, sort of, but I try not to put much stock in my gut-feeling reads, because those are so seldom right. I'm better with vote-based analysis and what I like to call character-based analysis (is this person behaving in a manner consistent with his behavior from another game where he was town?). I put my vote on Insomniac because Theorel arrived at Insomniac as the best choice, and I believe Theorel's preceding explanation was the best argument I had yet seen for why we got No Lynch. His conclusion was that scum believed a Lekkit/Eevee lynch to be inevitable, and thus simply held off getting on it (or Lekkit/Eevee could have been scum).

Now, this does implicate quite a few people other than Insomniac, like Galzria and O. (The funny thing is that it would have implicated Cayvie too, so maybe the scum didn't think we would go down this road, which is why they didn't mind killing her? They had no way of knowing she was Tracker based on her posts, I don't think.) And then of course we still have Eevee/Lekkit, who we can forgive for not wanting to lynch themselves, less forgivable for not lynching each other, but possibly forgivable. But of course they were scummy before all of this.

So that's where I am at, Yuma. Oh, and about Volt: You seem to be eying him warily. He has jumped around a LOT, but it looks to me like it's been helpful jumping, in terms of gathering info. And anyway, I wouldn't expect scum Volt to keep changing directions/voting. In fact, I know he wouldn't, because I've seen scum Volt twice. So Volt is very low on my suspicions.

I might as well mention everybody. Timchen I've talked about as highly problematic, but not a real contender for the lynch in my view right now. I liked Theorel's analysis a lot, as I said. I haven't seen much from Frisk but he hasn't hit any red flags. Ehunt I've seen more from, maybe it gives me a slight uneasy feeling that I can't explain? Yuma is a little louder this game than usual, but that could just be a natural progression for him. After all, we all know scum Yuma is as silent as the Funsockets game lobby.

[ehunt]

I put my vote on Insomniac because Theorel arrived at Insomniac as the best choice, and I believe Theorel's preceding explanation was the best argument I had yet seen for why we got No Lynch. His conclusion was that scum believed a Lekkit/Eevee lynch to be inevitable, and thus simply held off getting on it (or Lekkit/Eevee could have been scum).

I sort of forgot to think about theorel's explanation even though I liked it while I was reading it.

My feeling is:
if L/E are both town, theorel's explanation is definitely the best, in which case Insomniac looks bad, Galzria looks bad (but they're probably not both bad), O looks good.

if at least one of them is mafia, the theorel's explanation becomes a lot less tenable. In this case all of O/Galz/Insom look bad, but on the other hand Lekkit/Eevee look bad in this case too (obviously).

OK, so I guess Galz and Insom are on both of those lists. I am comfortable with voting for Insomniac.

vote: Insomniac.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I mean, it's possible this theory is good and we just have the wrong person. It's also possible the theory is bad. Of course O/Galz/Ins/Lekk/Eevee is half the people in the game, there's gotta be a mafia there somewhere...

[theorel]

I agree that your argument for pursuing a no-lynch is anti-town. I disagree that voting someone you have a > 0 town read on to avoid lynch is in any way pro-town play. I saw  scummy behavior, I voted on it. The lynch didn't go through, so I voted on it D2. The scummy behavior didn't magically disappear.

Your argument about sitting back D1 and then swooping in at deadline to derail a lynch is also a bunch of crap seeing as I was V/LA leading up to the night before. But I'll be damned if I'm going to come in and say "I suspect Insomniac, but get a town read from Lekkit. I'll vote Lekkit because it's cool". Sorry, but no.

Now we have 1 confirmed town dead, instead of (what I believe) would've been two.  Instead of spending your time trying to condemn behavior that, if you had your way, gives scum free license of  unaccountability, why not spend your efforts hunting for scum around the single dead confirmed town we have? Maybe there's a reason you want to redirect from that?

There's still some miscommunication here.  You said that my argument that nolynch is worse than town-lynch gives scum license to sit around doing nothing day1 and spontaneously vote at deadline in order to deadline lynch.  I specifically argued against that point by saying that sitting back all of day1 is scummy regardless of whether they push through a lynch or not.  You then applied that argument to yourself and excused yourself with V/LA.  But I never applied it to you, nor intended it that way.

You keep saying that saying that nolynch is scummy gives scum free license to lynch at the last minute.  I keep saying it doesn't because lynching at the last minute is ALSO scummy.  There are 3 things that can happen day1:
1. A wagon slowly builds, with strong arguments from the lynchers, and weak counterarguments.  If it happens on town, we should really look into why they lynched, because, man, lynching town is scummy.  It may be that the lynch was largely town-driven (how I felt about the MIV lynch for instance), but that doesn't mean we excuse the lynchers.  We might find the 1-scum that contributed.  No one should ever lynch with weak arguments, it's not pro-town.
2. No wagon really gets going during the day, at deadline, the town pushes through a lynch because, hey it's better than nolynch.  If it happens on town then we should really analyze everyone who was on the wagon because, man, lynching town is scummy.  It may be that the lynch was driven by townies who recognized that lynch>nolynch.  But we should still look into people's arguments, seeing why it came to a deadline lynch.  Who was lurking, who didn't contribute to scumhunting?  Did the people that deadline-lynched really look like they were trying ALL DAY LONG to suss out scum and make a lynch happen?  Or did they show up at the last second and push for a townie to get lynched (especially if they did so over other viable candidates)?  Well, we look and analyze and try to find scum here because people had some scummy behavior.
3. No wagon really gets going during the day, then at deadline, no lynch happens.  Well, what do we do here?  We look at why nolynch happened.  Maybe someone switched the lynch at the last minute (we don't know how scummy this is because we don't know if they hit scum, or deflected from scum).  Maybe some people actively pushed for nolynch, claiming that such action was protown.  Maybe a bunch of people were complacent, not really scumhunting and so at the last second we still didn't have any good information.  We should look through and try to find scummy behavior, because well, nolynch happened, and man, nolynch is scummy.

This is my whole argument.  I'm not implicating anyone specific, I am not giving scum a pass for lynching at deadline.  I AM saying that there are 2 anti-town results of day1.  1: town lynched.  2: no lynch.  The ONLY other outcomes is 3: scum lynched, which is clearly pro-town.  If someone contributes to an anti-town result on day1 we should find out why they did it and analyze their behavior.  Was it genuine?  Did they really contribute to scum-hunting?  And if they didn't, then we should lynch them day2.  End of story.  It does not give people a pass for scummy behavior.  It simply doesn't, because "hey, deadline-lynch" is not a valid excuse.  Avoiding one anti-town result for another anti-town result is not pro-town.  It's simply a different form of anti-town.  But it's okay, town players have to do anti-town things occasionally.  I'm not going: ooh, ooh Galzria's scum because he nolynched.  I'm saying, "hmm...Galzria is more suspicious than null because he contributed to the nolynch.  He should be looked at more carefully."  Obviously I find you less likely scum than other players, or else I probably would have voted for you by now.

[Insomniac]

When I get lynched look at Robz, and theorel for driving my wagon, Robz for doing it after explicitly saying he thought I was town, and for saying not to follow your gut which is how I play this game and people seem to think I play it well.

Vote: Robz

[Voltgloss]

Just caught up after being unexpectedly out of pocket all Sunday afternoon/evening.

I see we are at L-2 for Insomniac now.  We have just over three RL days to decide on a lynch.  There is another potential topic of discussion I would like to flag now, and get peoples' thoughts on before we get into L-1/hammer territory (especially with a wildcard like timchen in the mix).

There is someone else in town who is subtly moving things in a manner that make him my #1 scumspect - especially if Insom is lynched and flips town.  This someone is behaving in a manner that I find consistent with his scumplay rather than his townplay.  I don't want to name this someone yet because I don't want to tip them off until I have time to put together a post detailing his past behavior and the reasons for my suspicions (which means, a post in the evening EDT rather than a during-the-day-while-at-work post like this one). 

I understand the difficulty presented by raising a new suspect less than 3 days before the lynch deadline.  I think the person I now suspect is our best lynch target.  However, if I am not able to convince enough minds to my view before the deadline, I will not stand in the way of an Insomniac lynch (or whatever other lynch may be the current viable lynch as we get closer to deadline).  But I want to get my thoughts/suspicions out there this evening, before the lynch, just in case I find myself on the receiving end of a bullet tonight.

And yuma:  I see and understand the reasons for your suspicions.  I agree I have been moving my vote and suspicions around to various targets.  This has been in an effort to provoke and gauge reactions both from the targets of those votes, and other people's reactions to those building (or not) wagons.  I realize it can be read as Volt being "all over the place."  Because I am.  But with, I think, good reason.  And the results of that research are in - and in my mind they point to one person.

[Robz888]

When I get lynched look at Robz, and theorel for driving my wagon, Robz for doing it after explicitly saying he thought I was town, and for saying not to follow your gut which is how I play this game and people seem to think I play it well.

Vote: Robz

That's fine, I accept that. Although you are something of a revenge voter.

[Insomniac]

When I get lynched look at Robz, and theorel for driving my wagon, Robz for doing it after explicitly saying he thought I was town, and for saying not to follow your gut which is how I play this game and people seem to think I play it well.

Vote: Robz

That's fine, I accept that. Although you are something of a revenge voter.

I can be, but people voted me long before you did, and you and theorel are the only ones I find scummy, and theorel is giving me more of a misguided townie vibe, so that leaves you.

[Voltgloss]

By the way, timchen - now that M-VII is completed, you (and anyone else) should feel free to post about it here.

[Robz888]

The thing about Timchen is, he seemed like a fine player and good town guy in MVI and BMMMI. In MVII, he was utterly bonkers (and town!). Here he is a third thing, giant lurker.

[Eevee]

Yeah timchen, any pro tips on reading Galzria?

..not that I did any better.

[theorel]

Just caught up after being unexpectedly out of pocket all Sunday afternoon/evening.

I see we are at L-2 for Insomniac now.  We have just over three RL days to decide on a lynch.  There is another potential topic of discussion I would like to flag now, and get peoples' thoughts on before we get into L-1/hammer territory (especially with a wildcard like timchen in the mix).

There is someone else in town who is subtly moving things in a manner that make him my #1 scumspect - especially if Insom is lynched and flips town.  This someone is behaving in a manner that I find consistent with his scumplay rather than his townplay.  I don't want to name this someone yet because I don't want to tip them off until I have time to put together a post detailing his past behavior and the reasons for my suspicions (which means, a post in the evening EDT rather than a during-the-day-while-at-work post like this one). 

I understand the difficulty presented by raising a new suspect less than 3 days before the lynch deadline.  I think the person I now suspect is our best lynch target.  However, if I am not able to convince enough minds to my view before the deadline, I will not stand in the way of an Insomniac lynch (or whatever other lynch may be the current viable lynch as we get closer to deadline).  But I want to get my thoughts/suspicions out there this evening, before the lynch, just in case I find myself on the receiving end of a bullet tonight.

And yuma:  I see and understand the reasons for your suspicions.  I agree I have been moving my vote and suspicions around to various targets.  This has been in an effort to provoke and gauge reactions both from the targets of those votes, and other people's reactions to those building (or not) wagons.  I realize it can be read as Volt being "all over the place."  Because I am.  But with, I think, good reason.  And the results of that research are in - and in my mind they point to one person.

Are you requesting input on whether you should put the info out there, or just warning everyone that it's coming?  I'm not sure why "tipping them off" would be bad, since you're clearly using past posts to inform the scum-read.  Anyways, I'm certainly interested in hearing what you have to say, but I think it's important to get it in tonight.  Given that it isn't a weekend, I think we'll have enough time to adjust to a different lynch if the case is compelling.

[Voltgloss]

theorel:  I'm just warning that I have more analysis to present tonight (and it will definitely be tonight).  I didn't want us to quicklynch Insom before I had a chance to do so.

[Robz888]

theorel:  I'm just warning that I have more analysis to present tonight (and it will definitely be tonight).  I didn't want us to quicklynch Insom before I had a chance to do so.

If thats a danger I can Unvote for now. I dont think it is (no Morgrim!). Definitely want to hear your new analysis.

[O]

Insomniac(5): Galzria, theorel, Eevee, Robz888, Ehunt

Yesterday's Insomniac: Galzria, Eevee, cayvie, Lekkit, theorel

These I believe are both accurate for the closest points to a lynch Insomniac has gotten to.

I was hoping to find totally different wagons here, and point out "ohaider, Insomniac is obvtown" but it appears that that isn't going to happen.

Main differences are that Ehunt and Robz have joined the fray this time and Lekkit has left, and Cayvie is dead and confirmed tracker.

IIOA I know, I would ask the people's whose votes have changed to justify themselves but Ehunt/Robz have already done so and Lekkit's been lurktastic, unfortunate since he's very likely town. .

Actually thats right. LEKKIT, WHAT ARE YOUR CURRENT THOUGHTS?

[Robz888]

Wait a minute, so everybody alive has voted for Insomniac accept Frisk, O, Timchen, and Volt? If Insomniac flips scum I guess we've really narrowed down the field.

Well, there could be some scum voting for scum. But probably not Day 1, the scum would have just not voted and gotten no Lynch, since it was so late.

[O]

Wait a minute, so everybody alive has voted for Insomniac accept Frisk, O, Timchen, and Volt? If Insomniac flips scum I guess we've really narrowed down the field.

Well, there could be some scum voting for scum. But probably not Day 1, the scum would have just not voted and gotten no Lynch, since it was so late.

DERP DERP DERP DERP DERP?

12 people alive, 6 alive people in the two lists I posted

12-6 = 6, one of the ones you missed is insomniac so I'll ignore that one but..

orite, Yuma exists.

[Robz888]

Wait a minute, so everybody alive has voted for Insomniac accept Frisk, O, Timchen, and Volt? If Insomniac flips scum I guess we've really narrowed down the field.

Well, there could be some scum voting for scum. But probably not Day 1, the scum would have just not voted and gotten no Lynch, since it was so late.

DERP DERP DERP DERP DERP?

12 people alive, 6 alive people in the two lists I posted

12-6 = 6, one of the ones you missed is insomniac so I'll ignore that one but..

orite, Yuma exists.

Gar! The ever-elusive Yuma!! Curses!!!

[Lekkit]

I'm actually not sure. At all. Pretty much everyone is acting really inconsistent, so it's hard for me to single out anyone. I do find it a bit scary that Volt is able to hop in, say something and a bunch of people agrees witout even questioning him. Theorel seems to be throwing out huge chunks of text that I can't really get anything out of. Maybe it's because I'm extremely tired, sick and has been quite busy the last days. I mean, I work with numbers, and I have a hard time reading a string of five numbers right. :S Also, RMM is at it's end and therefore most of my attention goes there.

I'm not entirely sure Insom is scum, but he's one of the ones I'd be willing to vote for, although, I'd prefer to vote 'gloss.

[Lekkit]

The sad part is that I feel like I got off to a really bad start, and I can't really redeem myself. That actually takes away something from the game for me. I really don't mind defending myself or trying to push things with peoples contradictions and ambiguities. However, I don't really feel motivated to search for them. Which actually makes me feel sad.

[Eevee]

I do find it a bit scary that Volt is able to hop in, say something and a bunch of people agrees witout even questioning him.

Volt does have an unbelievable ability of always sounding rational, unbiased and composed. Shouldn't always fall for it.. but I do.

[Insomniac]

Ill say it again if I get lynched hit Robz he's too agreeable, and flakey this  game to be town robz.