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Author Topic: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)  (Read 139001 times)

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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1075 on: August 08, 2012, 10:15:20 pm »

Dead silence here... apparently people don't find this series turns of events that interesting...
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pingpongsam

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1076 on: August 08, 2012, 10:44:13 pm »

Just got into the hotel room from an exhausting day. Have to go at it early tomorrow on roughly 6 hours of sleep. Will check back in tomorrow early afternoon and will likely have something to weigh in on. Meantime, far too exhausted to read much less cogitate. Just checking in since my morning posts are usually clockwork.
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You are the brashest scum player on f.ds.

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1077 on: August 09, 2012, 12:22:53 am »

Ok... I see a major problem of the town for now is that it seems they are willing to believe me I am town, but they have trouble believing my assessment that Galzria is definitely scum.

Therefore, let me summarize what happened between me and Galz which makes me extremely sure that he is scum. I will list the post numbers for your reference. I believe my summary is accurate. Please understand that the only viewpoint difference for you and me is that I am 100% sure I am town. I do not otherwise know anything you don't know.

The list of events in chronological order:

1. In the light of Robz's death, I decided to pursue 1-1 or 0-2 scum split on-off wagon. I said I have some secret reason to believe that eevee is town, on the road to suspect manda #795
     
2. In reply, Galzria pointed out the possibility that PPS(actually me) might be soft-claiming, manda and PPS agreed. Galz has a theory that PPS(actually me)/eevee is the scum pair. #815, #822-824 Actually now I look back and read more about his initial theory, the essence is that after another mislynch, a fakeclaim is fatal to town, as a counterclaim needs a lynch to verify. And somehow he thought that a soft-fakeclaim now can achieve a mislynch. (red alert here; see analysis in the following post)
 
3. To avoid confusion, I explicitly denied.#827

4. Then the discussion about my alleged fakeclaim ceased. Nobody seemed to believe (even Galz himself as far as I can tell as his initial softclaim read is from PPS's post) that I am a scum soft-fake-claiming. People were interested what secret reason I had for eevee's innocence though. In a time period of more than a day, Galzria didn't say much. Eevee and me decided to vote for him see if he wanted to talk more. #886, 887

5. To promote town discussion (and since my original intention of hiding the reason in the first place did not work) I decided to speak out the reason why I think eevee is town. #894

6. After more than a day's silence, Galzria did not say much, except officially replace PPS by me in his previous suspicion. Notice that he explicitly said he has nothing more to say at this point. #898 In my eyes (and I think in eevee's as well) this is a sudden turn of events. I do not think Galzria had seriously expressed his suspicion on me before this post. I was rather, expecting his response on the other discussions that occurred during the time, as well as my theory why eevee is town. Instead we got an OMGUS vote back without reason. This is where I really started to think he must be scum.

7. The fight started. Galzria then attempted (weakly) to prove that I could not have thought about the theory I posted at #894 back at the time of post #795. #903 Now I admit I might have given him this wrong impression by wrongly using the word "argument." But really the red alert for me is that
(1). From the lack of response in more than a day from him, I cannot believe that he really thinks that strong on the case of PPS(me)/eevee during this entire period after post #815.
(2). After his accusation in #898, he posted another short post #900 saying he has nothing more to say.
(3) So, evidently what he posted in #903 is not what caused him to suddenly strongly suspect me and eevee, because otherwise he would have stated those in #898.
(4) The only logical explanation I can put out on Galzria's behavior is that he started trying to find the fallacy of my argument only after he's now been directly accused.
(5) So how can he be so sure on me/eevee pair at post #898? The obvious answer is that he is scum. The only plausible explanation I had (later) for a townie galz is that he was angry back then.

8. I clarified and pointed to him the posts that my theory is based on. #904

9. In almost a day's time, no substantial response from Galzria. My interpretation is that scum Galzria has given up. But in case that I misinterpreted (that he was just an angry town) I tried to tell him his argument against me and eevee is unreasonable. Also I begged him to explain further if he really had so much confidence in his theory.

10. Longer posts from Galzria started to come. #938 
Red alert: For no good reason I can think of if he is town, he refused even to consider the possibility that I am telling the truth. (kinda hard to point toward a definite post; read through #945.)

11. Then I started to get mad. The rest is probably not relevant to either my case on him or his case on me.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1078 on: August 09, 2012, 12:48:33 am »

.. do lets lynch Galz guys? Very good summary, timchen.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1079 on: August 09, 2012, 12:59:21 am »

So as you can see, there are 3 red alerts in the series of events, which is why I am so sure that he is scum. Let me elaborate on each of them:

1. Galzria's theory of me fakeclaiming:
I have now carefully reread his theory. I can summarize for him. Basically the key is that the town can now only afford 1 mislynch.  So, a fakeclaim at lylo (in scum's plan, persumably game-tomorrow) if believed is fatal. And Galz's theory is that my alleged soft-fake-claim should serve as breadcrumb to make my fakeclaim next day more believable.

Now if you look closely, this theory just does not hold. Firstly, in order for this to work my current day fake-soft-claim cannot be called out. Even Galzria himself found it too obvious. Secondly, even if it is not called out, on the next day when I (supposedly) fakeclaim, my softclaim on eevee cannot be a supportive evidence as it is not verified. 

There are two things I can say about Galz's theory. The first is that since it is a theory he put forth and said several times that he had nothing to add, I had a hard time understanding how he can simply ignore those logical inconsistencies in the theory, if he is town. The second is that it is admittedly a complicated theory, and you need to know who is who to plan ahead. Surely scum can do that, but how easy is it for a townie to reverse-engineer? It makes much sense (and much easier for him) to fabricate this theory if he is scum.

2. Red alert 2 is the timing of his response. Notice that at the time he posted his short but officially confirmed accusation on me and eevee, we are actually expecting other things: how he reads my theory that eevee is town, and how he viewed manda, etc, etc. His sudden accusation is really weird. I read it as scum over-reaction. And as I said briefly in the above post, it does not really seem like that the post of my eevee theory is the main reason of his suspicion on us. So his only source of suspicion is his crappy theory that cannot withstand scrutiny. And he said clearly multiple times he had nothing more to say to support his theory. I have an extremely hard time to understand his play as a townie.

3. And this is the fatal red alert. Ok, even if he somehow had bad logic and blindedly trust his own theory, he has no reason to completely disregard mine. Yet in the following discussion lasting more than a day, I see no admittance at all that what I am saying (that I am not softclaiming) might be plausible. I reemphasize that what I am saying DOES NOT point at him as mafia. So he has no reason not to consider what I say as plausible, if he is town.

With so many red alerts I cannot get any other conclusion other than that Galzria is mafia. You see now he starts to back up to hope what he did can be forgotten, and people can be confused.

Still, I will keep my promise. So We have to rely on the rest of the town to win.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1080 on: August 09, 2012, 02:11:40 am »

Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1081 on: August 09, 2012, 02:13:28 am »

After rereading my two long posts, I think there might be some ambiguity when I exchangeably use the term "my theory", "what I say" or similar. If you don't find it confusing you don't have to read this post.

So actually I have three statements in this relatively complicated business:

1. why eevee is likely town (#894).
2. My explanation that I am not soft-claiming and why I keep the reasoning 1. a secret for a while (scattered)
3. Galzria is scum. (scattered)

Now, Galzria can argue (and have argued) how my 1. is weak. Also Manda disbelieved it. This is fine. That is just an argument, nothing definite.

However, my red alert #3 is about Galzria's complete rebuttal of 2. What I said is what happened, and I cannot fathom how can a townee find what actually happened completely unbelievable, especially without any good reason. Of course, what Galz said (the soft-fake-claim theory) contradicts my 2. directly, but if he is townie, he cannot prove what he said actually happened, and he has no reason to completely disregard the possibility that what I am saying is true.

And of course, now my overall statement is 3. His rebuttal on this one does not give me any further scum read.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1082 on: August 09, 2012, 02:19:03 am »

Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.

Sorry, missed your post #830. I hope it should be pretty clear that I cannot have consciously made this mistake.

Still, the point is the same. There are more than 24 hours silence for you between that post and the next. You were definitely not pushing that argument. And while we are asking your opinion about other things, you just OMGUSed back. Without further reason.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1083 on: August 09, 2012, 02:21:13 am »

Oh Galz, don't forget you still control my vote. Do you want me to vote for manda now?
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1084 on: August 09, 2012, 02:39:28 am »

Since I have written so much, it probably does not hurt to write a conclusion.

Why for me Galz is surely scum? It is mainly because he insisted on his faulty soft-fake-claim theory without any effort trying to reinforce it, and refused to consider any other possibilities.

You can go back and read what Galzria has written. He spent a lot more words attacking me rather than justifying his theory. Why? The answer is simple. He has no way to justify it.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1085 on: August 09, 2012, 02:50:23 am »

Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.

Sorry, missed your post #830. I hope it should be pretty clear that I cannot have consciously made this mistake.

Still, the point is the same. There are more than 24 hours silence for you between that post and the next. You were definitely not pushing that argument. And while we are asking your opinion about other things, you just OMGUSed back. Without further reason.

No, OMGUS is when you vote with no reason. I laid out my reason. You softclaimed. I saw it. Manda saw it. PPS saw it.

Now, there are two claims you can make:

Yes, I did softclaim,

Or

No, I did not softclaim.

You stated the second, which indeed I choose not to believe because I didn't think you could be so oblivious to the fact that it would get read that way. "I think Eevee is town, but don't want to say why unless I have to" IS going to be read as a softclaim.

Now, since I just could not (and can not) comprehend you being that oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way, I must conclude you meant to do it.

This then leads to two possibilities:

You did it as town

OR

You did it as scum

Since making a softclaim like that as town is rather idiotic, and I don't think you're an idiot, I was left to conclude that the second option was the more likely. The case for this is made in #815.

Here's why it works if you're scum: Generally speaking, if town sees a softclaim, they don't call it out because they hope scum didn't notice. If you make this softclaim as scum, and people go "Oh, he's softclaiming to have cleared Eevee - let's focus on another target" (you provided two, through reasonable analysis under the assumption Eevee = town). So we go about scumhunting Manda/YN as you propose. But remember, you're scum in this scenario, and those two are both town. So let's say we lynch one (was likely, as I suspected YN heavily anyway, and PPS did Manda) - and they flip town. Now we open D3, and you come out and full-claim, saying you breadcrumbed it back with your softclaim. What's more, you've found scum, and it's X.

Town must somehow decide to lynch you instead of X, or they lose - and that's just not going to happen. So an unchallenged softclaim by scum today almost certainly would result in a town loss.

SO: Given that I didn't think you would be oblivious enough to have not known that was going to be read as a softclaim, AND the fact that I didn't think you would play such a terrible town as to make the claim intentionally, the only logical conclusion was that you were scum trying to pull a fairly straightforward gambit.

This was ALL spelled out in #815 & #830, and was prior to your ever releasing your "proof" of Eevee's innocence. The entire case was made already, and my vote cast, before you ever released your "proof" of Eevee's innocence where you claimed it had to be a Galz+X pair. The fact that your Eevee proof dropped SB entirely, and dismissed PPS entirely - leaving just you and me as possible scum on the wagon - did little to make me consider you any less scummy.

Now, in light of your play the last two days, I must conclude I was wrong in my initial judgments of your softclaim. Since you still absolutely stand by the fact that you didn't softclaim, I will choose to only discredit my first assumption:

That you wouldn't be oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way. Apparently you were. How this can be... I just don't know or understand. But I believe you're town, and I still don't believe you would play town so poorly intentionally, so all that's left is that you just didn't realize your softclaim would get read that way.

..... That doesn't sit well with me, but what else can I conclude?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1086 on: August 09, 2012, 03:19:54 am »

Now, recreation time! (Sorry, long posts stating things I already know is quite exhausting. I need some fun posts.)

part I: An unbiased estimate of how likely Galzria is scum:

I know I said I am 100% sure that Galzria is scum. But that is a subjective estimate. Now let me try to objectively estimate how likely he is scum. I am going to do this using Bayes theorem.

1. prior probablility: without extra knowledge, the chance for Galzria to be scum is 2/7. town 5/7.

2. the probability for him to do the red-alerted things as town and scum respectively:
(this kind of probability has to be given to use the Bayes theorem unfortunately; I'll be as conservative as I can at giving out the probabilities.)

red alert 1: townie: 20% scum: 80%
As scum it is easier for him to think of this kind of argument. While it is not impossible as townie, it is quite unlikely that he can think hard enough to get this theory yet continuously failed to see the fallacy of it.

red alert 2: townie: 45% scum:50%
As a courtesy to my missing of his post #830, I am going to say his behavior here is almost as likely from townie as from scum. Yeah, scum can subject to overreaction, but townie can also be upset. I didn't put 50-50 because he denied later that he was upset.

red alert 3: townie: 15% scum: 90%
I really don't see as townie why can he not accept what I said as a possibility. As scum at that point he probably he might think he couldn't withdraw or that would look even more suspicious.

Now we can apply Bayes theorem. The conditional probability that Galzria is scum after the series of event is

2/7*80%*50%*90%/(5/7*20%*45%*15%+2/7*80%*50%*90%)=91.4%

(You can adjust the probabilities yourself to your liking. It would be interesting to see what number comes out!)



part II: the options of the town

Unfortunately I gave my vote power to Galzria when I was mad. With an objective measure of the chance that Galzria is scum, now we can estimate the success rate of each strategy I outlined:

i) lynch someone other than me or Galzria:
When Galzria is town, there are 2/5 chance to get mafia. 3.4% success; 5.2% lylo.
When he is scum, the chance lowers to 1/5. Even if we get the scum we are still at lylo. 18.3% lylo; 73.1% lose

Strategy summary: 73.1%/23.5%/3.4% (lose/lylo/success)

ii) lynch me:
this one is easy (at least from my perspective). 100% lylo.

Strategy summary: 0%/100%/0%

iii) lynch Galzria:
When he is town: 8.6% lylo
When he is scum: 91.4% success

Strategy summary: 0%/8.6%/91.4%
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1087 on: August 09, 2012, 04:24:50 am »

No, OMGUS is when you vote with no reason. I laid out my reason. You softclaimed. I saw it. Manda saw it. PPS saw it.
Technically you are right. But hope you see my point as I even forgot that you have voted for me at that point. Also, I thought it is pretty clear that I was following eevee trying to force you speak more. So I didn't really vote without reason.

I am glad you replied a bit more about your soft-fake-claim theory. Still, I'll highlight the questions I have already raised:
Now we open D3, and you come out and full-claim, saying you breadcrumbed it back with your softclaim. What's more, you've found scum, and it's X.

Town must somehow decide to lynch you instead of X, or they lose - and that's just not going to happen. So an unchallenged softclaim by scum today almost certainly would result in a town loss.
First thing is that breadcrumb does not gain be credibility, if I were scum and played accordingly. Eevee is not verified town. The only way for that breadcrumb to work is eevee being NKed and flipped town. So your theory should actually be that I am partnering with someone NOT eevee and I have to plan to NK him. (Actually realizing this redeems you a bit in my eyes, as this is actually the best thing you can say as scum but you didn't.) But then eevee is quite sad to be fooled by me like that. Probably not so likely.

Following from this, your last sentence quoted above is not quite right (since the breadcrumbing does not work). If eevee-me are a pair, the best strategy should be either that I softclaim clearing say SB and kill him at night, or I shouldn't softclaim at all, as any mislynch today will work, and a full fakeclaim tomorrow will be hard for the town anyway. In addition, in any case saying my strategy is to soft-claim in such an obvious way then hoping it not to be detected is self-contradictory.

The entire case was made already, and my vote cast, before you ever released your "proof" of Eevee's innocence where you claimed it had to be a Galz+X pair. The fact that your Eevee proof dropped SB entirely, and dismissed PPS entirely - leaving just you and me as possible scum on the wagon - did little to make me consider you any less scummy.
I am sorry but it seems to me that you also misunderstood me. I really have to apologize for this. They are two separate things. in my secret eevee-town argument, I use the fact that, eevee-Galz pair is the only possible pair I can see and that is also ruled out, to support eevee's innocence. When I assumed that eevee is townie, there are then no more direct argument against you. The only thing against you is that I would still like to pick one scum out from the first 4 wagoner, that is, you and PPS, and I think you are more likely. Sadly that I probably stated the two things too close together. I apologize again that this misunderstanding seems to scumfish you out.

That you wouldn't be oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way. Apparently you were. How this can be... I just don't know or understand.
Remember this is only my third mafia game (and second if you don't count RMMI) and how I am ignorant to Grujah's d1 claim in M6? And I admit I do have rather strong opinion against tacit claims. I personally prefer the game to be played with entirely open information. That is, you can still breadcrumb, but the breadcrumb should not be picked up just by the observant's acute observation. Instead the only coding/breadcrumbing should be deciphered using extra information.

For example, Grujah's LOVE code in m6 is something I don't like (as if scum picks up he and morgrim's dead. And how does it help him if a townie picks it up?) Jo's breadcrumb of ROBZGUN in BMMM is something I like though, as without information next day nobody would have known that is a code, yet in the next day it is so obvious that it is a code for everyone.

Anyway, just so you see a bit why I didn't see it potentially that my statement of a secret reason as a softclaim. Never occurred in my mind until you mentioned it.

In the end, I am sorry if the scumfishing starts from this alleged softclaim. But I hope I have compensated you more by giving you my vote!
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1088 on: August 09, 2012, 04:34:19 am »

Tim, tell me something frankly and honestly here: If you assume for a second that you and I are both town, do you see Eevee's (or anybody else's) play in relation to our dispute scummy? Because I really think you're town after yesterdays play, and while you can't know it, I AM town too.

From that perspective - to me - Eevee really seemed to be pushing you on while doing no work himself. Manda to a lesser degree, but mostly she's just lurked her way through this game.

What I'm asking, is go back to the question I posed before, and with a clear head: If we're both town, what is our best chance to hit scum? I'll flip the tables here and offer you MY vote, but ask that you really look at Eevee and Manda.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1089 on: August 09, 2012, 04:47:56 am »

And thank you for your response above. I do see why you didn't think it was a softclaim... It just really read like one to me, and certainly at the time - yes, I admit it was unfathomable to me that you couldn't have stated it like that intentionally. So to something you brought up before - Yes, I was unwilling to consider the alternative that it was unintentional because it made no sense to me.

As to the whole who would a scum softclaim yadda yadda - I could see it working both ways. You're right that claiming a townie then NK'ing them would make sense... But realize that if a Doctor is in the game, you've basically told them who to protect because they know the softclaim to be a lie.

More importantly than your claim on Eevee then (or more directly), the pairing made sense to me because I already viewed Eevee as scummy (my case was laid out on him separate from you), and you seemed the only viable on-wagon partner (I too, fwiw dismissed PPS and SB).
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1090 on: August 09, 2012, 11:22:33 am »

Ok. First in response to your question. Suppose that both of us are town. (I'll say why it is quite unlikely in a subsequent post.)

First eevee- I see you now agree on my assessment on eevee, namely that if is scum he should pair with someone on the wagon. And if both of us are town, well, then, he can only pair with PPS. Actually this is not that impossible. The only thing I would say that does not sound right is both of them are too adamant on either my side or yours. If they are the pair at some point in the previous few days one of them (more likely PPS) should take back his stance a bit, lynch one of us, and when flipped town, pursue the other next day. Sounds like an easy way to win for them. But anyway, if you flip town, I will think this through more carefully.

One last word about eevee: I do agree I would appreciate if he could speak more. But I don't really blame him (or her? I am confused). Putting myself in his shoes, after seeing my lengthy articles and agreeing with me mostly, there really isn't that much to add. So no, I don't view how he played as scummy.

Now Manda. I am actually pretty sad for her, because in my eyes, what I see is that you two are partners, she is unwilling to bus you, but you bused her once you found you couldn't frame me. Oh, but I digressed.

So supposed that you are town, well, it still feels pretty weird for me that you instantly found her scummy. Your points are valid though: she's being careful. But maybe she just plays like that, we have no meta. If you are town, does it feel right when you decide to take back your assessment, then turn your target immediately on one of your followers? Ok, but supposed that is what you decided to do anyway. Who's her partner? PPS is again possible I assume, and it makes sense for them to push my wagon then when I flipped town, push yours.

Some comments on other players.
Young_nick: I suspect him early in the day, but his response to my posts seem genuine. If we both were town and he is scum, he should be taking sides instead of staying almost in the middle. How he appears really looks like he lacks information.

Sharky: I was hoping to see his post yesterday, but didn't. A bit more lurky than before... which does not suit my taste. Unfortunately he did nothing particularly scummy. Also his reasoning why he is on your side reads town. Will look at him more closely if you flipped town.

PPS: if you flip mafia as I think you will, I will strongly consider lynching him next just for the sake of lynching him. He is the player that I am mostly upset about in the previous few days. But his play style is consistent.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1091 on: August 09, 2012, 11:24:31 am »

*you=Galzria in the previous post
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1092 on: August 09, 2012, 11:27:09 am »

I think you got something wrong on my thoughts: I think both scum are off the wagon.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1093 on: August 09, 2012, 11:41:52 am »

Ok. So first argument why we cannot both be town (without appealing to anything you have said):

If we were both town, it would be hard explain why you can live until now. From what all I can see I have presented a plausible case. The scum would be more than happy to accept my argument, maybe hedge a bit, then reluctantly vote for you. Once you flipped town then I am in huge trouble. And they basically win.

So this is the objective reason why there has to be a scum among us. Just for knowing that I am town I can say you are scum. But I believe I have said plenty to support that you are scum even without using the knowledge I am town.

I can also summarize your recent explanation of your previous suspicion on me. Simply put:
1. I "obviously" soft-claimed.
2. I denied.
3. Therefore, I must be lying, and if I am lying I has to be scum.

Maybe ok at first glance. But not ok when you can support this with no other substance in a fight that lasts more than 2 days. You didn't even mention this strongly until yesterday.

This is what I see that has happened:

When I said for some secret reason I think eevee is town, you are telling the truth that you really thought it is a softclaim. However, what you really had in mind back then was that I did a stupid cop slip. So you basically made up your mind just to put some suspect on me, and if that did not work you could probably NK me at night. And in the first place you do not want to pursue me too strongly as if I flipped cop you won't look good.

But things changed when I put out my eevee theory. You now realize that I am possibly telling the truth. But more importantly, you sense a risk that if the town buys my stuff, yourself are in immediate danger. (Unfortunately this is actually misunderstanding...)

So realizing that I am probably not a cop, you decide to pursue the route of framing me fakeclaiming, as yourself in the beginning see it so obviously that I am claiming. And the rest I have summarized yesterday.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1094 on: August 09, 2012, 11:45:18 am »

I think you got something wrong on my thoughts: I think both scum are off the wagon.
So you are talking about precisely eevee-manda pair? (I think we both think YN is town for now)

Well... if given that we both are town I guess that is a possibility. It is probably as possible as eevee-PPS pair.
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Galzria

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1095 on: August 09, 2012, 11:51:00 am »

Alright Timchen, I'm tired of this.
Vote: Galzria


Here's the mafia win you so badly want. Vote for me now, so you can see how completely off base and wrong you are.

I'm not dead yet because we're both town and Eevee is scum. He's been egging you on this whole time while offering nothing himself so that you take the fall. His partner some can't come hammer me, so they need another town to vote me, but every other town member here sees the illogical fallacies of your arguments and won't vote me.

THAT'S why. But you won't believe me. You think you're right and nothing else in the world makes sense. So lynch me, and see how blind you've been.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

manda2014

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1096 on: August 09, 2012, 11:53:24 am »

Just checking in... I'm about to head to work, so I'll be reading but not posting until about 6 forum time.
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timchen

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1097 on: August 09, 2012, 11:54:13 am »

I'll gladly accept that. And do you mind me joking you now you definitely are not playing for your wincon, no matter whether you are town or mafia? (Ok, as mafia this may be a risky gambit)

Vote: Galzria

And if you really flip town, I promise I will look carefully at eevee.
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manda2014

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Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
« Reply #1098 on: August 09, 2012, 11:54:59 am »

Is that L-1?
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Galzria

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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20
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