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[timchen]

Yeah eevee, you didn't look carefully enough or do you mean me leading instead?

[Eevee]

Yeah eevee, you didn't look carefully enough or do you mean me leading instead?

Oh so very sorry, I read your post on phone just before falling asleep and forgot all about it or just missed it completely, dunno what it is but I certainly didnt realize you started the "which is scummier" line of discussion (which I for the record still think is a good way of approaching the problem of who to lynch today. It's just sadly possible the options we are given were chosen by scum and we are damn if we pick either of the candidates).

[timchen]

For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?

[Eevee]

For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?

Who is this directed to?

[timchen]

You! I mean, if you assume there is at least 1 scum off wagon, and you think we should look more than manda and young_nick, then the remaining option is you.

[Eevee]

For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?

I definitely never assumed there was "at least 1 scum off the wagon".

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
1-1 if I had to guess.

I assumed 1 scum on and off is the most probable outcome. I actually think 2 people on it is much more likely than 2 people off it. And I think I would even if I didnt know my own role.

That being said, as I earlier said, I think this is a good pair of people to analyze and look at. It was more of a general comment "even though it is nice someone shows initiative and leads the charge, we should be a little bit wary that someone might be scum" (because of how catastrophic that would be). It was not meant to discredit you or PPS. I seriously appreciate the effort and think this is a good path to go down.


The reason I think scum likely was voting for Frisk: Mafia wants townies gone. Things were sailing towards a nolynch. Voting for Frisk was not considered scummy at the time - most of the town was voting for him (my campaign to save him was unsuccessful). So, I do think shark_baits deserves some heat for casting the hammer on a townie lynch. And everyone else for voting for a townie. Whatever scummy manda and Nick have done, they have not done the ultimate scum thing to do. They havent participated in killing a townie (unless they did at night  ). So in that sense it is a little bit crazy to pick a lynchee from the people who DID NOT participate in lynching a townie yesterday.

[timchen]

But it doesn't make sense at all for the scum to kill Robz if they are both on the wagon. He is even a possible lynch target d2. Yeah, given that you are not scum I am almost certain that the two scum cannot be both on the wagon. If they were, I couldn't really see a reason for them not to kill you instead.

[Eevee]

But it doesn't make sense at all for the scum to kill Robz if they are both on the wagon. He is even a possible lynch target d2. Yeah, given that you are not scum I am almost certain that the two scum cannot be both on the wagon. If they were, I couldn't really see a reason for them not to kill you instead.

Excellent point. So, 1-1 probably then? I cant fathom manda and nick both being scum because nolynch was so close and yet neither voted yesterday.

[timchen]

seems lots of people are absent today...

For now:Vote: manda for reasons I've stated.

[Young Nick]

Finally seeing Batman tonight! In other news, I won't be able to post for three hours, and thus won't get a long post in tonight.

[timchen]

Am I the only one in this game that hasn't seen batman?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-3

shark_bait (1): Eevee
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen

Not Voting {4}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

[Eevee]

Am I the only one in this game that hasn't seen batman?

Yes.

[pingpongsam]

Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?

[Voltgloss]

Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?

It's not a 2-day absence that triggers a prod.  It's a full 48-hour absence, and that hasn't happened yet.  His last post here was Thursday at 8:18 p.m. EDT.

[Galzria]

Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?

It's not a 2-day absence that triggers a prod.  It's a full 48-hour absence, and that hasn't happened yet.  His last post here was Thursday at 8:18 p.m. EDT.

Well, as far as what to do next, I'm a bit torn. Mafia know that if a mislynch occurs today, the town is likely down to lylo (3 town, 2 mafia).

I see two paths available to me: YN (and his partner is likely Manda or Timchen) is the first - as he was my most suspicious (with Eevee close behind) - but with PPS saying "no Eevee", that choice would be clear.

The second path is PPS (with Eevee/Manda/(MAYBE Timchen) as his likely partner). PPS played an awesome job as a PR in M-VI. He was stealthy and productive. He was, well, simply amazing. That said, his claim her that Eevee is innocent and we should focus on YN/Manda (with a soft-claim too?) is just... Very forward of him for a town PR. Almost too forward.

I just can't swallow PPS's softclaim. Not after I've seen him so expertly play a PR.

Vote: PPS

Here's my thought process of the Mafia thought process on this:

PPS/Eevee are Goon/Rolecop. There are 7 town to start the game, 5 left now. They probably know one of us is Vanilla after a Night investigation. That person is probably me after I refused to claim D1 (this IS a claim now). So PPS soft-claims Cop as the Mafia rolecop, hinting his partner is in the clear. He doesn't full-claim because at this time he doesn't want to risk counter-claim (not terrible if it happens, but not great either).

He then points to two unknown townies, one of whom gets led off to lynch (perfect for Eevee to be the one to point this out "PPS is kinda leading, which makes me a little uncomfortable" - it's a distancing statement that works well after your scummate has just "cleared" you). So you hedge back and forth, and eventually decide on one to lynch. The confused townies support this because, well, they're suspicious of those two anyway.

Night comes, and there are 4 town left. They lynch one (not the first investigated guy) and investigate another. Now if they haven't found a possible Cop, there's only 1 person it could be. So PPS opens D3 with a full-claim as cop, saying he's found scum.

With or without a counterclaim, it's a big debate - very likely ending in his favor (seeing as he'll have one person to back-up his claim). Since it's lylo, a mislynch there is game-over, and even if you lynch him there, you go to D4 with 2 town, 1 scum. Given that you can bet his teammate bussed him for town cred, it's still highly likely Mafia wins.

So: Given my success as Mafia in M-II following a very similar ploy (my partner, Robz, claimed Doctor D3), I've seen how successful and difficult this is to beat. I also know PPS to be a MUCH more careful PR player, I have to go with my gut on this one.

[Young Nick]

Explain lylo please. Does this mean one bad vote ends the game? 3-2 town-Mafia or 2-1?

[Galzria]

Explain lylo please. Does this mean one bad vote ends the game? 3-2 town-Mafia or 2-1?

Yes. Lylo - lynch or lose. You must lynch, and you must lynch correctly.

[timchen]

@Galz: please tell me why you think eevee is more suspicious than manda or Young_Nick.

Also... I am not sure you read it correctly... I think I said first that we should focus on YN and manda then PPS sorta agreed. Not sure it's fair to say he's leading this.

[Eevee]

phonelurking so cant write a big post but i didnt think PPS softclaimed, what about others?

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 2-4

shark_bait (1): Eevee
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
pingpongsam (1): Galzria

Not Voting {3}: Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

[manda2014]

I don't recall PPS softclaiming, but timchen did.

quote author=timchen link=topic=3411.msg76366#msg76366 date=1343979149]
I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
[/quote]

[manda2014]

I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)

fixed

[pingpongsam]

Fair enough for giving me suspicion (a vote actually) for putting Eevee in the "safe" bin. I suppose I could see how that might be interpeted as a softclaim.

Knowing my true role the rest is just laughable conjecture. If Eevee is Mafia he's laughing at it too. If Eevee is Town, he's still laughing.

Now, to attack the argument itself. I placed you in the same "safe" bin as Eevee. Is this not an equal softclaim? Would this not be an idiotic play on your part if I were actually the Town cop (assuming you are town)? Your whole argument comes off, to me, like you might be the Mafia Rolecop.

The argument was complete nonsense in the amount presupposed and scummy in the fact that there was never left an opportunity for me or anyone else implicated to answer any questions in rebuttal. Pure speculation and leading.

If you wanted out fo the "safe" bin then you got it; FoS: Galzria (god, I love doing that knowing it bothers people).

[Galzria]

I don't recall PPS softclaiming, but timchen did.

quote author=timchen link=topic=3411.msg76366#msg76366 date=1343979149]
I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)

[/quote]

... Wow, you're right. Well, it doesn't change my analysis entirely. Unvote Timchen could very easily be pulling the same ploy that I felt PPS was... Except I'm not as confident that he wouldn't play a PR this way.

(I apologize to PPS for the accusation) - Now I have to decide if my suspicions of YN outweigh the idea that Tim may be leading the town on as suggested PPS was doing above.