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[timchen]

Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

[Robz888]

Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

[Galzria]

Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

That is, while not Anti-Town, certainly not exclusively PRO town either. But... I can respect your reasons.

[Eevee]

Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I resent this line of thinking. If you think I'm the best lynch, forget about meta, cast your vote and have me defend myself fair and square. If I'm town, its my own bad play that brought it upon me.

..and I'm in multiple games anyways. And I dont need to be pitied.

Its not fair to other players or town to treat me different because I screwed up in an earlier game and got myself killed.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

[Eevee]

Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I resent this line of thinking. If you think I'm the best lynch, forget about meta, cast your vote and have me defend myself fair and square. If I'm town, its my own bad play that brought it upon me.

..and I'm in multiple games anyways. And I dont need to be pitied.

Its not fair to other players or town to treat me different because I screwed up in an earlier game and got myself killed.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

stupid ipad, you can probably figure out who said what. or someone can fix the quotes for me.

[Captain_Frisk]

+1 to Eevee

[Young Nick]

Yeah, I am going to go ahead and call robz's argument plain stupid. Who cares what happened in a different game of Mafia? What happened there does not earn him pity points here. Sure, you can glean from other games his style of play, but to use that as reason to not vote for him? Preposterous at best. I, for one, have not read that game and will not be using his actions in it to form my opinion of him here in MVII.

[Robz888]

Yeah, I am going to go ahead and call robz's argument plain stupid. Who cares what happened in a different game of Mafia? What happened there does not earn him pity points here. Sure, you can glean from other games his style of play, but to use that as reason to not vote for him? Preposterous at best. I, for one, have not read that game and will not be using his actions in it to form my opinion of him here in MVII.

It's not pity points. It's just that the Day 1 lynch has never resulted in killing a mafia anyway. So with the knowledge that we will probably kill a member of the town, I prefer if that town member is not Eevee.

If I really thought Eevee were mafia here I would vote for him. I simply think he is no more or less likely mafia than most other people.

[timchen]

I don't like the direction the discussion is going into. I feel my argument about eevee is sound. If people buy that they just shouldn't consider eevee lynch for now. No need to think about metagame.

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.

[Eevee]

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.

A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 1-15

Captain_Frisk (4): timchen, Galzria, Robz888, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Galzria (3): Captain_Frisk, Eevee, shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

[Young Nick]

I would like to hear what manda is thinking at this point in time. It seems like our votes on S_B are all but useless at this point. Where would she be likely to place a meaningful vote if she is willing to at all? I just don't think I am ready to lynch C_F.

[manda2014]

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.

A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.

A HIGHER success rate, sure. But higher does not equal high. And there's so much WIFOM and so little actual information D1 that reasoning can only help you so much. Does that mean we should random-lynch? Absolutely not. But we should still be honest with ourselves about the odds.

[Young Nick]

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.

A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.

A HIGHER success rate, sure. But higher does not equal high. And there's so much WIFOM and so little actual information D1 that reasoning can only help you so much. Does that mean we should random-lynch? Absolutely not. But we should still be honest with ourselves about the odds.

So then, what are you proposing. No one said there is a good chance of lynching mafia d1. We just are trying to maximize the chances of that happening. I'm being honest and say there is not a good chance that we lynch mafia, but that we probably ought to lynch for information-gathering reasons. Otherwise, we are probably going to be at square one minus someone come d2.

[timchen]

@eevee: it is also possible that we lynch the claimed PR anyway. Usually not, but like I said earlier, if frisk claimed PR I am still willing to lynch him in this game.

@manda: I just mean, ok, we can accept that we might not succeed in lynching mafia day one. It is not the most probable result anyway. However, I don't think we should entirely disregard the possibility that we might hit scum. And most important of all, our goal should still be trying to hit scum, instead of trying to lynch VT and get information.

@manda2: how do you feel about hammering frisk if necessarily in the next two days?

[manda2014]

I would like to hear what manda is thinking at this point in time. It seems like our votes on S_B are all but useless at this point. Where would she be likely to place a meaningful vote if she is willing to at all? I just don't think I am ready to lynch C_F.

Sorry I've been so absent today. Like I said earlier, I've got RL stuff that really has to be priority right now, but that'll change soon.

Anyway, I agree with you that our votes on S_B aren't doing much of anything right now. I'm considering just unvoting. I'm not horribly opposed to a Frisk lynch, because however he flips we'll get a lot of information. He's said so much in this game that, if he flips town, we'll have a lot of analysis that we know we can look at as honest. If he flips scum, well, that's obviously good for us. Obviously it'd be detrimental if he turns out to be a PR, but I seriously doubt that, if he is PR, he wouldn't claim at L-1. That's juuuuuuust too risky. That being said, although I don't hate the idea of lynching Frisk D1, I'm not so keen on it that I'd be willing to throw the hammer.

I really don't like the Galzira wagon. Maybe it's just my gut, but I am only getting a town read from him. Obviously that may change later in the game, but I don't want to lynch him D1.

The suspicion heaping up on Eevee is interesting. It seems to me like he apologizes for something every other post. (yes, I realize I apologized at the beginning of this post. XD) Is that necessaaaaaarily scummy behavior? No, but it doesn't help town either. It just distracts from any actual scumhunting we could be doing, and I really don't like it.

[manda2014]

@eevee: it is also possible that we lynch the claimed PR anyway. Usually not, but like I said earlier, if frisk claimed PR I am still willing to lynch him in this game.

@manda: I just mean, ok, we can accept that we might not succeed in lynching mafia day one. It is not the most probable result anyway. However, I don't think we should entirely disregard the possibility that we might hit scum. And most important of all, our goal should still be trying to hit scum, instead of trying to lynch VT and get information.

@manda2: how do you feel about hammering frisk if necessarily in the next two days?

If it comes down to it and it's lynch Frisk or stick with a no-lynch and someone needs to throw the hammer, I'm not opposed to doing it. But I'm not ready to do that now.

[timchen]

Okay. I will just park my vote there as I might not get the time to be online during the weekends.

[Young Nick]

I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.

Something about this post keeps me coming back to it. He is (naturally) defensive, but the adamant refusal to claim just strikes me as too uncompromising. It's almost like he's daring us to lynch him.

[Young Nick]

Oh shoot I just got ninja'ed by like three posts that I skipped so I should read those before y'all consider my last post.

[Eevee]

Galzria wagon is not picking up it seems.
Vote: Robz888
I dont want this to be Frisk or nolynch when I wake up. I dont like Robz's recent behaviour.

[Young Nick]

@Eevee: Just when I was considering hopping on the wagon...

[Eevee]

@Eevee: Just when I was considering hopping on the wagon...

I can still get back on, although I'm maybe liking Robz a tad more now.

[Young Nick]

You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.

[Galzria]

I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.

Something about this post keeps me coming back to it. He is (naturally) defensive, but the adamant refusal to claim just strikes me as too uncompromising. It's almost like he's daring us to lynch him.

Read it in context with this post:


 

@Galz?

Apologies - I can only read and respond to so many things at a time!

It's a tough question. Here's how I break things down:

A) Mafia may not always claim PR. If the assumption is that they will, it's the perfect backdoor for them NOT to.

B) Still, Mafia IS more likely than not to claim.

--

• You didn't claim. I'm sorry, but I don't see you pulling off a TINAS (win or lose I will applaud you at game end if you did). You are either VT, or scum.

C) Is it better to lynch VT, or hunt scum? Well, doing this works under the assumption that A) is never true. Consider, if we keep hunting, and find another VT, they claim so, and we move on. If we find scum, they claim VT, and we move on. If we find a PR, they tell the truth, as town often does, and then we're in a bad spot.

Thing is, if we let you get away with this, as town or scum, we're opening the doors to scum of the future. So in that sense, yes, a CF lynch is logical, regardless of if you flip VT or Mafia.

Essentially, I will not allow to play the "wagon 'till they claim!" Game. It's a purely anti-town move, because PR's feel forced to claim at L-1, while scum just claim VT so that the wagon gets dropped.

I will not let him out PR's in that fashion, and I will not claim. Period.