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[werothegreat]

If you were able to field $6 this turn, and had a Curse in hand, let's say in end game, would you buy a Duchy, netting a 3 VP increase over 1 card, or would you buy a Farmland, netting a 4 VP increase by turning a Curse into an Estate?

[heron]

If it's gotten to the point that I would buy estates, with $2, I would buy the farmland.
Otherwise, the duchy.

Edit: Reading what Lekkit said, I clearly wasn't thinking straight.
I'll now always buy farmland in this situation.

[Lekkit]

You still have the same amount of dead cards in your deck, either way. I'd choose one VP over... Well, not having that extra VP.

[DG]

You need to consider 3 pile endings in this sort of decision. If that isn't a factor then farmland gives the extra vp and also sits in your deck as a potential province if you can buy another farmland later.

[blueblimp]

A more difficult question is whether to turn a copper into an Estate. Arguably this can be good since you might be able to remodel that Farmland to a Province later.

[ehunt]

Same scenario with a copper instead of a curse becomes much harder! (So you have 7 money in hand here.) Basically, you're cutpursing yourself on one hand in each subsequent shuffle in exchange for giving yourself the opportunity to pay 6 for 4 points at some point in the future. Obviously harmless (minus 3-pile considerations) if you'll never shuffle again, probably a risk worth taking if it's very likely you'll shuffle at most one more time.

In general I don't understand late game VP buys well other than province and duchy, for which we have simulator backup. Estates rarely matter and should be bought when they do, which you can usually tell. (A dumb mistake I make a lot: opponent is ahead by 9 points, there's 2 provinces and 2 estates and no duchies left. I buy an estate - that's just helping him three-pile while junking my deck). Gardens and duke and vineyard and silk road can obviously matter a lot, but whatever your definition of "late game" is in games where these cards matter, surely your priority at some point before that was to buy all of them.

When do you stop buying nobles/harems and start preferring duchies? When do you stop buying silver and prefer undiscardable tunnels? When do you start buying islands that are unlikely to benefit your deck (and when do you stop preferring them to duchies?). etc. etc. Great Hall is reasonably clear to me, although I think many pick them up too early. Fairgrounds - omg ... omg... and then farmland, the AP-inducingest alternative victory card of them all.  I will make a new topic around this this evening I think.

[Schneau]

Same scenario with a copper instead of a curse becomes much harder! (So you have 7 money in hand here.) Basically, you're cutpursing yourself on one hand in each subsequent shuffle in exchange for giving yourself the opportunity to pay 6 for 4 points at some point in the future. Obviously harmless (minus 3-pile considerations) if you'll never shuffle again, probably a risk worth taking if it's very likely you'll shuffle at most one more time.

Don't you mean pay 6 for 6 points some point in the future? If you buy a Farmland and remodel the existing Farmland into a Province, it's a 6 point difference.

[jomini]

There are several big factors which make me go for farmland over duchy even in the copper case:
1. As noted, farmland -> province is another possible 3 point swing (without the farmland I'm buying a duchy). Odds that I will hit 6 with a farmland should be higher than hitting 7 with the new estate.
2. Most TfB options work better on the farmland/estate than the duchy/copper. Only expand can flip duchy to province; having 1 more value to feed into apprentice or salvager can also be better; additionally using the estate as feed (e.g. expand estate -> duchy, apprentice it for a lab) can put you over humps that would otherwise cost a duchy, cost a silver and lower a later VP buy, or simply not be possible.
3. Let's say I do end up sacrificing a province buy later on. I then grab a duchy and am down 2 points; I've lost very little. ~50% of the time I'm already going to lose the tie and will have to play for duchies/farmland anyways. However, with the extra point I can, perhaps 3 pile with an additional duchy or farmland, or play for farmland & duchy (say remodeling a lookout -> duchy) which I need to do just twice more to make up for 4-3 province split.
4. Aside from Tfb, there are considerations like menage, harvest, fairgrounds, baron, farming village, venture, etc. that like estate/farmland over duchy/copper.

My default would be something like consider gold first. If I'm not in the market for gold, then farmland & estate should be better than estate in a lot of cases.

[ehunt]

Don't you mean pay 6 for 6 points some point in the future? If you buy a Farmland and remodel the existing Farmland into a Province, it's a 6 point difference.

oh yeah, devastating (said ehunt, after deleting his poorly-thought-out "correction" to this post). I think the calculation is still roughly the same- maybe it's worth doing it even if you think there's two more reshuffles coming now.

[Tables]

Don't you mean pay 6 for 6 points some point in the future? If you buy a Farmland and remodel the existing Farmland into a Province, it's a 6 point difference.

oh yeah, devastating (said ehunt, after deleting his poorly-thought-out "correction" to this post). I think the calculation is still roughly the same- maybe it's worth doing it even if you think there's two more reshuffles coming now.

I think the calculation is much different. Being able to pay 6 for 4 points possibly in the future isn't much - it's the potential to get one more point over a Duchy, and likely to not even get that. Being able to pay 6 for 6 is the potential to get three more points than a Duchy. Of course, piles always matter in situations like this. And I don't think there's a simple answer to how those piles sizes should affect your strategy. If the Duchies running out means you win, and the Duchies are low, it's obvious. What if it's a close game, you're slightly ahead and Duchies are nearly out (and will end the game). Well, the Farmland gambit might score you a little more, or a little less, and doesn't help speed the game up. Uh, actually, that's clearly still Duchy as the answer. I'm sure it's quite complex really.

[Asklepios]

A more difficult question is whether to turn a copper into an Estate. Arguably this can be good since you might be able to remodel that Farmland to a Province later.

More difficult still would be a hand of gold, 3xsilver, copper. You could go Province, or Province+Farmland, or Farmland+Estate. Personally I'd almost always go for the second option, but I guess a lot would depend on what treasures and other cards remain in the deck, and how far from the end of the game we are, and what the scores are, etc.