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[Robz888]

Robz: In Mafia III I had no strategy. It was my first game and I didn't really know what I was doing. It worked apparently but obviously showed with my one-shot vig claim. My strategy for this game? Again I don't think I have one.

As and aside I was never able to answer what my real life status is because you (still talking to Robz here) died before I was able to. I think it is awesome that you and jot have been able to make it as journalists. I have a mass comm degree but struggled to find a job so I am back to school to be a medical laboratory scientist. Who do you guys write for?

I write about higher education news and policy for an online news website, The College Fix.

--

As for this game, I have no idea who to vote for. It's tough when we don't have Morgrim to kick around on Day 1. I'm just tossing out questions, hoping something might catch.

Ftl, where were you for mafia II-III-IV???

[Insomniac]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

[Galzria]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

Ah, but there IS info:

Ftl has been at L-1 for... How many irl days now? Quite a few.

IF:

Ftl is Mafia, it takes 5 of 7 Apothecaries to lynch - I can't see Mafia bussing D1, and even if they did, they wouldn't be on the wagon sitting at L-1 for so long. Given this, it's reasonable to expect the lynch hammer to take awhile to land. We would have 4 of 7, which means only 3 people could lynch him.

IF:

Ftl is Town, both Mafia are on this wagon already. If there were 0, or even just 1, the other would've come up with a reason to hammer by now. Letting an opportunity like this just sit there is outside the Mafia wincon.

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

[Insomniac]

insomniac:

and ftl is a bad lynch

Wait what. There are no bad lynches d1 here.

Scum tell if FTl is mafia d1, chainsaw defense d1 lol.

Now we get more real info if FTl flips scum.

Bad lynch is bad when random because random lynches provide no info

Ah, but there IS info:

Ftl has been at L-1 for... How many irl days now? Quite a few.

IF:

Ftl is Mafia, it takes 5 of 7 Apothecaries to lynch - I can't see Mafia bussing D1, and even if they did, they wouldn't be on the wagon sitting at L-1 for so long. Given this, it's reasonable to expect the lynch hammer to take awhile to land. We would have 4 of 7, which means only 3 people could lynch him.

IF:

Ftl is Town, both Mafia are on this wagon already. If there were 0, or even just 1, the other would've come up with a reason to hammer by now. Letting an opportunity like this just sit there is outside the Mafia wincon.

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

People just voted for him randomly because TINAS voted randomly, and O copied because O didn't want to be replaced by a fake O. So I don't think we learn much because most of the votes are random and following suit, I haven't seen a good reason to vote ftl. The other vote for him was what because its his first game? Thats a terrible reason.

[Captain_Frisk]

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

Before we hammer - we should discuss the D1 night plan:

1. Use powers or not?

2. If yes - then secret or co-ordinated?

[zxcvbn2]

1. Yes
2. I think secret. I think if we coordinate the Mafia will just lie and send us off on a wild goose chase. Better to say who we targeted after the fact.

[Galzria]

So, lynching ftl either hits Mafia, or clears the names of 5 people*.

* - nothing is ever absolute in Mafia, but this would be a great starting point D2.

Before we hammer - we should discuss the D1 night plan:

1. Use powers or not?

2. If yes - then secret or co-ordinated?

Should we base it on his flip reveal? If he flips Mafia, then there is only 1 Mafia left in 8 (arguably left in 4 - the 3 non-voters and the hammer vote). Still, are we likely to do more harm than good? I'm not sure, but would have to believe so.

If he flips town however, there are 2 Mafia in 8 (again, arguably 4 - the first 4 on the bandwagon). But our odds of actually producing a pro-town result should increase, right?

Or do we just use them regardless and let the fallout occur tomorrow?

[zxcvbn2]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

[Insomniac]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

If he flips mafia then I say we don't use them, we're likely to hit the hospital and that increases mafia odds.

Reasoning:

No Powers
7-1 pre night
mafia kills 1
6-1 with no night actions being taken we're just playing a game of mafia, where we try and ferret out mafia

With Powers
7-1 pre night
mafia kill 1
between 0-3 town die 1/8 or 12.5% chance of hitting mafia
worse case scenario -- 3-1, thats a scary boat for day 2. 3 people needed to lynch mafia can easily guide a misdirect

In conclussion IF he flips mafia then no powers is better for the town, i say if he flips mafia we keep our powers on ice till we need them more if you look at other mafia games on these forums the town almost never succeeds in power use until late game

[Insomniac]

I think we use them regardless. We're not going to learn anything from sitting and waiting. We don't just want to know who's mafia, but what our actual powers are.

Meant to put this in last post but forgot,

Also we dont want to know what our actual powers are, we DO know see the OP. So assuming your meaning to learn info then a non guided attempt will not learn much as numerous people might end up targeting the same person like for example if he flips mafia I suspect I will be a hot place to use an action as I called him a bad lynch

[zxcvbn2]

Okay. Yeah, I'm just throwing my gut instinct out there, I've never actually played a non-vanilla mafia game before.

[zxcvbn2]

So if we agree that we only lynch if he turns up town/apothecary, should we use powers secretly or coordinate?

[Insomniac]

Personally I THINK if we use them we should coordinate.

I think it should be in pairings of two. For instance.

Pair 1
Robz888
Galzria

Pair 2
O
Thisisnotasmile

Pair 3
yuma
Captain_Frisk

Pair 4
Insomniac
zxcvbn2


Lets use pair 4. That means you target me with your night power and I target you with mine. The mafia will most definetly attempt to throw a wrench in the plan somewhere, for instance if you are mafia you might kill frisk, claim yuma is golem and say that you were jailed/doctored whatever

[Insomniac]

But maybe im wrong because if the mafia try to kill someone and fail they have found one of the 'real' doctors

[jotheonah]

Captain Frisk decides to give the Scrying Pool a try. "Great Scrying Pool," he says "Show me who the familiar is." Words form on the water's murky surface.

"Top card is an Estate. Keep or Discard?"

Vote Count


ftl [4] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O, Galzria
O[3] - zxcvbn2, ftl, Insomniac

not voting - Robz888, yuma

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

[Robz888]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

[Insomniac]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

Setting up to say "at least one of the mafia must have been a non ftl voter"?

[zxcvbn2]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

So Option 1: Two of the four already voting are mafia.

Option 2: Me or Insomniac are Mafia

Option 3: Robz and yuma are mafia.

Knowing that, I think the pairs should be:

Thisisnotasmile, Captiain Frisk

O, Gazlria

Insomniac, me

yuma, Robz888

if we are using our powers (ftl turns up apothecary/herbalist).

This makes it most likely that the mafia end up together, and the doctors are more likely to save themselves.

I don't know if that's right, but I think that looks fair.

And with that, I'm going to

Unvote: O

Vote: ftl

[Galzria]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

[Insomniac]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

Not necessarily I have a growing suspicion is zxcvbn2 is mafia as he a)Hammerred, b)Tried to guide to power use regardless and then when i suggested otherwise he went oops  c)is now trying to suggest pairings  (MY pairings were copied from the OP i paired player 1 with 2, 3 with 4, 5 with 6, etc removing ftl left 8 people

[Insomniac]

Im also not sure that if ftl is town that both mafia would be on board right away, why hammer if the town will do it for you

[zxcvbn2]

So... Ftl hasn't been hammered. That means he is mafia, or the mafia are already both there? Or they figure somebody else will hammer at some point, so why bother?

This mirrors my larger analysis post earlier today, except for the last line. I doubt that ftl would be town with 0, or even 1 Mafia on board. Not hammering after this amount of time when they could goes against their wincon. If he's town, I suspect both Mafia are on board already.

Not necessarily I have a growing suspicion is zxcvbn2 is mafia as he a)Hammerred, b)Tried to guide to power use regardless and then when i suggested otherwise he went oops  c)is now trying to suggest pairings  (MY pairings were copied from the OP i paired player 1 with 2, 3 with 4, 5 with 6, etc removing ftl left 8 people

Yeah, I was worried people would grow suspicious if I hammered. I just wanted to get things rolling. I doubt anything I say will convince people otherwise, so take it as you will.

[jotheonah]

The Apothecaries were getting restless. Where was the Chancellor? When would their memories return?

"We're not spending another night with those Familiars roaming around!" TINAS exclaims.
"Ftl must be one of them!" CF and O brew up a poisonous potion, while Galzria and zxcvbn2 hold ftl down. 

"Apothecaries, thy drugs are quick," he says, and dies.

Vote Count


ftl [5] - Thisisnotasmile, Captain_Frisk, O, Galzria, zxcvbn2
O[2] - ftl, Insomniac

not voting - Robz888, yuma

ftl, Town Apothecary, has been lynched.

Night 1 begins now. Night actions are due in 48 hours. The thread is now LOCKED.

[jotheonah]

FYI, accidentally deleted most of the OP. If anyone has the text of it saved somehow PM me. Otherwise, make do with what's there.

[jotheonah]

I hope no one objects to an early Day 2 start? It occurred to me that since everyone has a night action there's no reason to wait the full 48 hours once everyone has submitted.  If there are no objections we'll continue to do the night phases in this manner.

Good morning. None of you slept last night. You got ready for bed, but you all felt a certain sense of forboding, like the Familiars wouldn't be content to just mess with your memories. So you all woke up and rushed to each others' aid, practicing your ministrations on the sick and the well alike. Then, your minds still foggy from the Potion, you went back to sleep. The fervored pace of last night's doctoring comes back to you in a haze, like a dream, as you step out of your Vineyard groves and survey your fellow anonymous apothecaries. But weren't there more people here yesterday?

You find the bodies of Thisisnotasmile and Insomniac cluttering the Vineyard floor.

Thisisnotasmile, Town Apothecary has been killed by black magic, medical malpractice, or a combination of the two.

Insomniac, Town Herbalist has been killed by black magic, medical malpractice, or a combination of the two.

Day 2 has begun.